[✔️] June 29, 2022 - Daily Global Warming News Digest.

Wed Jun 29 09:08:54 EDT 2022

/*June  29, 2022*/

/[ measure the misinformation ]/
*Europeans Badly Underestimate Scientists’ Agreement on Climate Change*
A survey of people in six countries found they guessed the level of 
scientific consensus on climate change to be much lower than it actually is.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/scientists-agree-on-man-made-climate-change-more-than-people-think#xj4y7vzkg

/[ Try to know the cause before casting blame.  Attribution science -- 
how to validate physical reality ] /
*Climate change role clear in many extreme events but social factors 
also key, study finds*
Professor says link to extreme weather sometimes overestimated but 
climate costs underestimated

“I think on the one hand we overestimate climate change because it’s now 
quite common that every time an extreme event happens, there is a big 
assumption that climate change is playing a big role, which is not 
always the case,” said Friederike Otto, a climate change and environment 
professor at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, who was 
one of the lead authors of the research.

“But on the other hand, we really underestimate those events where 
climate change does play a role in what the costs are, especially the 
non-economic costs of extreme weather events to our societies.”...
- -
They say that in the case of heatwaves, the role of climate change is 
unequivocal, and that the average and extreme heat levels in every 
continent across the globe are increasing specifically because of 
human-caused climate change...
- -
“We started at ‘no one was ever talking about climate change’ and now 
we’ve sort of moved over to ‘blaming a lot of things on climate 
change’,” Otto said. “[This is] a plea towards realising that reality is 
somewhat messy, in the middle, and that we need to disentangle these 
drivers better in order to actually prioritise our adaptation and 
resilience building to really address climate change properly.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/28/climate-change-heatwaves-droughts-study-weather

- -

/[ Academic study of attribution science ]/
*Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective*
Ben Clarke, Friederike Otto, Rupert Stuart-Smith and Luke Harrington
Published 28 June 2022 
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d/pdf
Environmental Research: Climate, Volume 1, Number 1
Citation Ben Clarke et al 2022 Environ. Res.: Climate 1 012001
*Abstract*

Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global
climate change, extreme weather events, and the harms experienced on
the ground by people, property, and nature. It therefore allows the
disentangling of different drivers of extreme weather from
human-induced climate change and hence provides valuable information
to adapt to climate change and to assess loss and damage. However,
providing such assessments systematically is currently out of reach.
This is due to limitations in attribution science, including the
capacity for studying different types of events, as well as the
geographical heterogeneity of both climate and impact data
availability. Here, we review current knowledge of the influences of
climate change on five different extreme weather hazards (extreme
temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones),
the impacts of recent extreme weather events of each type, and thus
the degree to which various impacts are attributable to climate
change. For instance, heat extremes have increased in likelihood and
intensity worldwide due to climate change, with tens of thousands of
deaths directly attributable. This is likely a significant
underestimate due to the limited availability of impact information
in lower- and middle-income countries. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone
rainfall and storm surge height have increased for individual events
and across all basins. In the North Atlantic basin, climate change
amplified the rainfall of events that, combined, caused half a
trillion USD in damages. At the same time, severe droughts in many
parts of the world are not attributable to climate change. To
advance our understanding of present-day extreme weather impacts due
to climate change developments on several levels are required. These
include improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around
the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across
different events and regions, and using attribution studies to
explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of
impacts.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d

- -

/[ Axios article explains why attribution is so important ]/
*The era of real-time climate change attribution is here*
Andrew Freedman - author of Axios Generate
Climate scientists are now able to tell whether climate change fuels 
temperature extremes in real-time, and even ahead of time, using 
forecast models, historical data and peer-reviewed scientific research.

Why it matters: Presented in a compelling visual format accessible to 
the lay public and TV meteorologists alike, a new product known as the 
"Climate Shift Index," or CSI, was unveiled this week by Climate 
Central, a nonprofit research and journalism organization. The product 
signals a shift in thinking about the ties between daily weather and 
long-term climate change.

Driving the news: Climate scientists have made great strides during the 
past decade in teasing out the role human-caused global warming plays in 
worsening or setting off extreme weather events, such as heat waves and 
extreme rainfall.

These studies, known as extreme event attribution, have taken place 
after a disaster, and involve sifting through complex historical data 
and computer model simulations.
Climate Central's real-time effort is currently limited to just one 
important parameter: temperature, though the intention is to expand it 
as science permits.
Based on methods recently published in a peer-reviewed journal, the 
organization is using a weather model combined with other sources to 
place daily high and low temperatures in a climate change context.
The CSI tool, as designed by Climate Central's researchers along with 
outside attribution experts, gives a number to indicate the influence of 
climate change on daily high and low temperatures...
- -
https://www.axios.com/2022/06/24/extreme-weather-climate-attribution-real-time 

- -

/[  from peer reviewed  "Advances in Statistical Climatology, 
Meteorology and Oceanography" ]/
*A multi-method framework for global real-time climate attribution*
Daniel M. Gilford1, Andrew Pershing1, Benjamin H. Strauss1, Karsten 
Haustein2, and Friederike E. L. Otto3
Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, USA
Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Grantham Institute of Climate Change, Imperial College London, UK

Published: 13 Jun 2022
*Abstract*

Human-driven climate change has caused a wide range of extreme
weather events to become more frequent in recent decades. Although
increased and intense periods of extreme weather are expected
consequences of anthropogenic climate warming, it remains
challenging to rapidly and continuously assess the degree to which
human activity alters the probability of specific events. This study
introduces a new framework to enable the production and
communication of global real-time estimates of how human-driven
climate change has changed the likelihood of daily weather events.
The framework's multi-method approach implements one model-based and
two observation-based methods to provide ensemble attribution
estimates with accompanying confidence levels. The framework is
designed to be computationally lightweight to allow attributable
probability changes to be rapidly calculated using forecasts or the
latest observations. The framework is particularly suited for
highlighting ordinary weather events that have been altered by
human-caused climate change. An example application using daily
maximum temperature in Phoenix, AZ, USA, highlights the framework's
effectiveness in estimating the attributable human influence on
observed daily temperatures (and deriving associated confidence
levels). Global analyses show that the framework is capable of
producing worldwide complementary observational- and model-based
assessments of how human-caused climate change changes the
likelihood of daily maximum temperatures. For instance, over 56 % of
the Earth's total land area, all three framework methods agree that
maximum temperatures greater than the preindustrial 99th percentile
have become at least twice as likely in today's human-influenced
climate. Additionally, over 52 % of land in the tropics,
human-caused climate change is responsible for at least five-fold
increases in the likelihood of preindustrial 99th percentile maximum
temperatures. By systematically applying this framework to near-term
forecasts or daily observations, local attribution analyses can be
provided in real time worldwide. These new analyses create
opportunities to enhance communication and provide input and/or
context for policy, adaptation, human health, and other
ecosystem/human system impact studies.

How to cite.
Gilford, D. M., Pershing, A., Strauss, B. H., Haustein, K., and Otto, F. 
E. L.: A multi-method framework for global real-time climate 
attribution, Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 135–154, 
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-135-2022, 2022.
https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/8/135/2022/

/[  John Oliver - comic journalist - explains our water shortage - video ] /
*Water: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)*
Jun 26, 2022  John Oliver discusses the water shortage in the American 
west, how it’s already impacting the people who live there, and what God 
has to say about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtxew5XUVbQ

/[  long, boring explanation -- correcting misinformation - toxic 
positivity --  video  66 mins ] /
*No, Kurzgesagt, We WON'T Fix Climate Change - The Danger of Fake Optimism*
114,700 views  May 29, 2022  A rebuttal to Kurzgesagt's misleading video 
about 'staying hopeful' on climate change.
We WILL Fix Climate Change! By Kurzgesagt: https://youtu.be/LxgMdjyw8uw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KQYNtPl7V4&t=1s

/[The news archive - looking back]/
/*June 29, 2014*/
June 29, 2014: On CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS," Henry Paulson and Robert 
Rubin discuss the risky business of carbon pollution.

http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2014/06/29/fmr-u-s-treasury-secy-rubin-on-climate-change-the-risk-here-is-catastrophic/

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