[✔️] June 28, 2022 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Tue Jun 28 10:20:55 EDT 2022
/*June 28, 2022*/
/[ maybe should ban all lightning strikes, spontaneous combustion and
any upwind wildfires ]/
*California's largest private landowner closes all forestlands to public
indefinitely due to wildfire, drought danger*
Katie Dowd - - June 26, 2022
- -
Lumber giant Sierra Pacific Industries owns over 2 million acres of
forestland across California, Washington and Oregon. The company, which
is headquartered in Anderson, Calif., is one of America's biggest
private landowners. In areas where SPI is not actively logging, the
public can usually access the land for hiking, permitted fishing and
hunting and cross-country skiing. But starting Friday, SPI's extensive
holdings will be off-limits due to "extreme drought and wildfire
conditions."...
https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/California-largest-private-landowner-closes-forest-17266493.php
/[ La Nina is the name of a type of climate destabilization -- cooler,
wetter.. ] /
*Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely — what does the future
hold?*
Meteorologists are forecasting a third consecutive year of La Niña. Some
researchers say similar conditions could become more common as the
planet warms.
Nicola Jones - - 23 June 2022
*Cold-water injection*
England has another possible explanation for why the IPCC models could
be getting future La Niña-like conditions wrong. As the world warms and
the Greenland ice sheet melts, its fresh cold water is expected to slow
down a dominant conveyor belt of ocean currents: the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Scientists mostly agree that the AMOC
current has slowed down in recent decades4, but don’t agree on why, or
how much it will slow in future.
In a study published in Nature Climate Change on 6 June5, England and
his colleagues model how an AMOC collapse would leave an excess of heat
in the tropical South Atlantic, which would trigger a series of
air-pressure changes that ultimately strengthen the Pacific trade winds.
These winds push warm water to the west, thus creating more La Niña-like
conditions. But England says that the current IPCC models don’t reflect
this trend because they don’t include the complex interactions between
ice-sheet melt, freshwater injections, ocean currents and atmospheric
circulation. “We keep adding bells and whistles to these models. But we
need to add in the ice sheets,” he says.
Michael Mann, a climatologist at Pennsylvania State University in State
College, has also argued2 that climate change will both slow the AMOC
and create more La Niña-like conditions. He says the study shows how
these two factors can reinforce each other. Getting the models to better
reflect what’s going on in the ocean, says Seager, “remains a very
active research topic”.
“We need to better understand what’s going on,” agrees L’Heureux. For
now, she adds, whether, how and why the ENSO might change “is a very
interesting mystery”.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01668-1
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1
/[ Yes we should know about all the others ]/
*CO2 Isn’t the Only Gas Bad for Earth. What Are We Doing About the Rest?*
AATHIRA PERINCHERY - - 6-27-2022
Kochi: While carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions often dominate climate
talks, we also need to cut emissions of several other climate pollutants
to be able to meaningfully curb global warming. The reason is simple:
CO2 is only one half of the problem.
Specifically, a recent study calculated these pollutants that together
contribute almost as much to global warming as does CO2. And most of
them last only a (relatively) short time in the atmosphere, so reducing
their concentration could slow warming faster than any other mitigation
strategy.
Combined cuts – in both CO2 and these short-lived climate pollutants –
can in fact slow the rate of warming by a decade or two earlier than
decarbonisation alone and allow the world to stay below the agreed limit
of 1.5º C, the study found.
The Wire Science spoke to the study’s authors, Gabrielle Dreyfus and
Durwood Zaelke, about their work, its implications in the fight against
the climate crisis and how India can benefit by responding more
effectively against a wider portfolio of ‘climate pollutants’.
Zaelke is president and Dreyfus is chief scientist – both at the
Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development in Washington, D.C.
and Paris.
- -
*Gabrielle Dreyfus:* Over the past decade or so, the debate has been
framed around the idea of attention to non-CO2 [greenhouse gases] as a
trade-off or potential distraction from cutting CO2. But this is not the
right way to think about the issue. We are experiencing the impacts of
global warming now. We are seeing heatwaves that would have been
impossible without human-caused climate changes. The severity and
frequency of extreme events is greater than predicted.
Similar to the debate a decade ago, about whether adaptation was a
distraction from mitigation, we are at the point where it is obvious
that we need to do both. The same is true for non-CO2 pollutants like
methane, tropospheric ozone, HFCs [hydrofluorocarbons] and black carbon.
Cutting these short-lived super-climate-pollutants is the only
mitigation strategy that can slow warming in the near term, slow the
self-reinforcing feedbacks that are accelerating warming, avoid
irreversible tipping points, and allow for adaptation.
The distinction between near-term and long-term warming, and the effects
they have on each other, appears to be an important part of this
discourse. Could you shed some light on this, and why they both warrant
different mitigation measures?
*Gabrielle Dreyfus:* Different climate pollutants stay in the atmosphere
for different periods of time. CO2 continues to warm the planet for
centuries. In contrast, short-lived climate pollutants like methane,
hydrofluorocarbons, black carbon and tropospheric ozone only stay in the
atmosphere for days, to weeks to 15 years or less.
This means cutting emissions of short-lived climate pollutants can
quickly reduce their concentration in the atmosphere and the warming
they cause.
Most CO2 emissions come from burning fossil fuels, so transitioning to
non-fossil renewable sources of energy is key for cutting carbon dioxide
emissions. This fossil fuel transition will also reduce about a third of
methane emissions, but not methane from landfills and agriculture, so
those need separate mitigation strategies.
Similarly, fossil-fuel strategies don’t reduce hydrofluorocarbon
emissions, so a separate strategy is needed for those. Luckily, we have
the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol that has established a
phasedown schedule for HFCs.
The importance of non-CO2 pollutants and their role in climate
mitigation has been “underappreciated due to misperception arising from
inconsistencies between IPCC WG I and WG III reports,” your paper says.
Could you tell us more about this? Would you say that this
“misperception” has affected our response to climate change?
*Gabrielle Dreyfus: *The contribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gases to
current and future warming has been underappreciated in part due to
discrepancies between how the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change] reports contribution to warming in its science report (by the
Working Group I, or WG I) and in its mitigation report (WG III).
By choosing to show emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent with a 100-year
time horizon and ignoring the warming and cooling impacts of some gases
and aerosols, the WG III report significantly underrepresents the nearly
equal contribution to current warming from non-CO2 pollutants that
include non-CO2 greenhouse gases and black carbon.
Excluding these non-CO2 and non-greenhouse-gas climate forces from
emissions accounting obscures the impact of mitigation policy,
especially in the near term.
The Netherlands has decided to downscale, relocate or shut farms to cut
down on nitrogen emissions. Is this a good move? And what happens to
farmers’ livelihoods – how do we work around that?
*Durwood Zaelke: *Reducing anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions
must integrate efforts to improve farmers’ livelihoods, such as
providing subsidy programmes and other incentives.
Existing, cost-effective technology can reduce N2O emissions in the
agricultural sector by 50% through no-till farming, reducing fertiliser
application, and applying nitrogen inhibitors to soil and manure.
Studies have found that applying nitrogen inhibitors can reduce
emissions at marginal costs, as well as reduce labour costs and other
incurred costs.
There are other cost-effective solutions, including the [sustainable,
intensive agriculture], which stimulates nitrogen-uptake in crops and
inhibits greenhouse-gas emissions from manure.
Reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions is a critical part of a fast
climate mitigation strategy, as N2O is the third-most damaging
greenhouse gas after CO2 and methane. It also is the last unregulated
gas that destroys the stratospheric ozone layer.
The agriculture, forestry, and land-use sectors account for 82% of
global anthropogenic N2O emissions and are the main drivers of increases
in atmospheric N2O concentrations, causing up to 71% of the increase in
emissions.
A global N2O reduction strategy should also include tackling remaining
industrial emissions, where technical solutions already exist.
As an ozone depleting substance and a climate pollutant, N2O could be
included in an amendment to the Montreal Protocol, similar to the Kigali
Amendment that mandates the phase down of the production and consumption
of HFCs.
https://science.thewire.in/environment/short-lived-climate-pollutants-climate/
- -
/[ just a little bit of science - CO2 is not the only bad chemical - the
rest are mixed in a "CO2 equivalents" ]/
*Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for
avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming*
Contributed by Veerabhadran Ramanathan;
May 23, 2022 - 119 (22) e2123536119
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2123536119
*Significance*
This study clarifies the need for comprehensive CO2 and non-CO2
mitigation approaches to address both near-term and long-term warming.
Non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) are responsible for nearly half of all
climate forcing from GHG. However, the importance of non-CO2 pollutants,
in particular short-lived climate pollutants, in climate mitigation has
been underrepresented. When historical emissions are partitioned into
fossil fuel (FF)- and non-FF-related sources, we find that nearly half
of the positive forcing from FF and land-use change sources of CO2
emissions has been masked by coemission of cooling aerosols. Pairing
decarbonization with mitigation measures targeting non-CO2 pollutants is
essential for limiting not only the near-term (next 25 y) warming but
also the 2100 warming below 2 °C.
*Abstract*
The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change
highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both
the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of
non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the context of near-term and
long-term climate mitigation, as well as the net effect of
decarbonization strategies targeting fossil fuel (FF) phaseout by 2050.
Relying on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change radiative forcing,
we show that the net historical (2019 to 1750) radiative forcing effect
of CO2 and non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by FF sources plus the CO2
emitted by land-use changes is comparable to the net from non-CO2
climate forcers emitted by non-FF sources. We find that mitigation
measures that target only decarbonization are essential for strong
long-term cooling but can result in weak near-term warming (due to
unmasking the cooling effect of coemitted aerosols) and lead to
temperatures exceeding 2 °C before 2050. In contrast, pairing
decarbonization with additional mitigation measures targeting
short-lived climate pollutants and N2O, slows the rate of warming a
decade or two earlier than decarbonization alone and avoids the 2 °C
threshold altogether. These non-CO2 targeted measures when combined with
decarbonization can provide net cooling by 2030 and reduce the rate of
warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, roughly half of which comes from
methane, significantly larger than decarbonization alone over this time
frame. Our analysis demonstrates the need for a comprehensive CO2 and
targeted non-CO2 mitigation approach to address both the near-term and
long-term impacts of climate disruption.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2123536119
/[ you want to know of higher risks ] /
*The disease after tomorrow*
Five illnesses spreading in a hotter world
Zoya Teirstein - Jun 27, 2022
For a downloadable field guide to emerging climate-charged diseases,
click here:
8.5×11
https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/field-guide-8-5x11-1.pdf
11×17
https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/field-guide-11x17-1.pdf
*Powassan virus*
Carried by the blacklegged (deer) tick, an arachnid about the size of a
poppy seed
The virus causes a neuroinvasive disease that has no treatment, vaccine,
or cure. Early symptoms include headache, fever, nausea, and weakness —
similar to other tick-borne illnesses. But Powassan is different from
most tick diseases because it has an extremely high mortality rate: One
in 10 people who develop the acute form of the illness die. Half of
those who survive a severe bout of Powassan have long-term health issues
such as recurring headaches, loss of muscle mass and strength, and
memory problems...
- -
*Chikungunya fever*
Carried by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes...
Much like ticks, mosquitoes thrive in warm, moist conditions. Climate
change isn’t just warming the planet, it’s throwing the hydrological
cycle out of whack, causing periods of extreme wetness in regions all
over the globe. These conditions may be encouraging the spread of the
mosquito species that carry chikungunya from California down through the
southern half of the U.S. and up into the Northeast.
“We are not prepared.”
— Charles Ben Beard, deputy director of the CDC’s division of
vector-borne diseases
Solutions:
Similar to Powassan virus, chikungunya has no vaccine or cure. Doctors
can make patients more comfortable with fluids, local anesthetics, and
aspirin. The most effective tools against chikungunya are preventative.
- -
*Vibriosis*
Carried by uncooked shellfish such as clams, mussels, and oysters
*Climate connection:*
The optimal water temperature for all Vibrio, including Vibrio
vulnificus, is between 68 and 95 degrees Fahrenheit. Coastal waters
around large swaths of the U.S. are hitting that temperature threshold
earlier in the year as the planet warms, giving Vibrio a longer window
to proliferate in the water and potentially accumulate in shellfish. In
addition, water that has historically been too chilly for Vibrio
vulnificus to properly thrive is warming up, allowing the bacteria to
spread north into new areas like the Northeast and Pacific Northwest..
- -
*Chagas’ disease*
Carried by triatomine insects, commonly known as kissing bugs
Kissing bugs are bloodsucking insects that often attach themselves to
the soft skin around the mouths of humans, dogs, and other animals. But
Chagas isn’t spread by the bloodsucking itself. When kissing bugs feed —
at night when people are sleeping — the bugs defecate. People tend to
rub the kissing bug’s feces into their mouths by accident either in
their sleep or when they wake, inadvertently infecting themselves with
Trypanosoma cruzi, the parasite that causes Chagas.
In the weeks and months after infection, symptoms can include fever or
swelling. If Chagas is left untreated, it becomes chronic. An estimated
20 to 30 percent of people with chronic Chagas develop life-threatening
complications such as a dilated heart that can’t pump enough blood,
life-threatening gastrointestinal issues, and cardiac arrest...
- -
*Valley fever*
Carried by soil containing the fungus Coccidioides
When Coccidioides spores living in dirt circulate in the air — kicked up
by wind, construction, farming, or possibly wildfire smoke — humans and
other animals can breathe the spores in. Most individuals with healthy
immune systems can fight off the fungus by themselves, but in people
with compromised immune systems, the spores are more likely to survive
and extend their fungal filaments throughout the lungs and sometimes the
rest of the body...
- -
https://grist.org/health/the-disease-after-tomorrow/
/[The news archive - looking back]/
/*June 28, 2015
*/June 28, 2015:
*In the Washington Post, Columbia University Law Professor Michael B.
Gerrard observes:*
"Toward the end of this century, if current trends are not reversed,
large parts of Bangladesh, the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan,
Egypt and Vietnam, among other countries, will be under water. Some
small island nations, such as Kiribati and the Marshall Islands,
will be close to disappearing entirely. Swaths of Africa from Sierra
Leone to Ethiopia will be turning into desert. Glaciers in the
Himalayas and the Andes, on which entire regions depend for drinking
water, will be melting away. Many habitable parts of the world will
no longer be able to support agriculture or produce clean water.
"The people who live there will not sit passively by while they and
their children starve to death. Tens or hundreds of millions of
people will try very hard to go somewhere they can survive. They
will be hungry, thirsty, hot — and desperate. If the search for
safety involves piling into perilous boats and enduring miserable
and dangerous journeys, they will do it. They will cross borders,
regardless of whether they are welcome. And in their desperation,
they could become violent: Forced migration can exacerbate ethnic
and political tensions. Studies show that more heat tends to
increase violence.
"The United Nations says the maximum tolerable increase in global
average temperatures is 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial
conditions. (Small island nations argued for a much lower figure; at
3.6 degrees, they’ll be gone.) But the promises that nations are
making ahead of the U.N. climate summit in Paris in December would
still, according to the International Energy Agency, lead the
average temperature to rise by about 4.7 degrees before the end of
the century. Those promises are voluntary and nonbinding, and if
they aren’t kept, the thermometer could go much higher. Which means
our children and grandchildren will be confronting a humanitarian
crisis unlike anything the world has ever faced.
"Absent the political will to prevent it, the least we can do is to
start planning for it.
"Rather than leaving vast numbers of victims of a warmer world
stranded, without any place allowing them in, industrialized
countries ought to pledge to take on a share of the displaced
population equal to how much each nation has historically
contributed to emissions of the greenhouse gases that are causing
this crisis."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-is-the-worst-polluter-in-the-history-of-the-world-we-should-let-climate-change-refugees-resettle-here/2015/06/25/28a55238-1a9c-11e5-ab92-c75ae6ab94b5_story.html
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