[✔️] November 15, 2022 - Global Warming News Digest

Tue Nov 15 08:48:13 EST 2022

/*November 15, 2022*/

/[ overheard on-line -  the motto for next year's COP28:  "1.5 is 
ecocide" ] /
*"One point five is ecocide"*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwJmklRdqbs

/[ Knowing the cause is to know the solution ]/
*Ending the climate crisis has one simple solution: Stop using fossil fuels*
Published: November 14, 2022
- -
If we don’t end the use of fossil fuels, all of the rest adds up to 
little more than branches piled on the tracks in front of a runaway 
train. They might slow the train temporarily, but until we get inside 
the engine and shut off the throttle, the train will keep accelerating...
- -
We need to quickly move to shut down fossil fuel use altogether, by 
replacing existing infrastructure as quickly as possible with solar, 
wind and other non-fossil energy sources so that people can thrive in a 
safe climate future.
It’s time to look past the distractions and focus on the simple solution 
to the climate crisis. We need to stop burning coal, oil and natural 
gas. Our climate future depends on this.
https://theconversation.com/ending-the-climate-crisis-has-one-simple-solution-stop-using-fossil-fuels-194489 

/[ money talks, NYTimes prints ]/
*Wealthy Nations Offer Indonesia $20 Billion to Curb Coal*
The deal is the most ambitious effort yet by the United States and 
European countries to coax a developing nation into abandoning the 
dirtiest of the fossil fuels.
- -
If the coal deals in South Africa and Indonesia are successful, they 
could be a model for the rest of the world, said Camilla Fenning, an 
expert on fossil fuel transitions at E3G, a London-based climate change 
think tank. While it would probably be too time-consuming for wealthy 
countries like the United States and Japan to negotiate partnerships 
with each country in need of support for an energy transition, these 
deals could provide a template for larger-scale programs at multilateral 
development banks and elsewhere, she said.

“The big question is whether money is going to flow swiftly and properly 
into these partnerships,” said Ms. Fenning. “If it doesn’t, that’s 
really going to degrade confidence in these deals, given how much 
attention they’ve received so far.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/climate/indonesia-coal-agreement.html

/[ The even bigger idea... ]/
*The big idea: stopping climate change isn’t enough – we need to reverse it*
With the world on course to exceed 1.5C warming, taking carbon out of 
the atmosphere, as well as lowering emissions, will become increasingly 
important
To start with, it’s important to emphasise that climate change happens 
incrementally rather than in big jumps. There is no evidence that 1.5C 
represents a boundary between manageable and catastrophic impacts. But 
the further we push the climate beyond where it has been for the past 
few million years, the greater and more unpredictable the risks become. 
Large climate shifts in the Earth’s past, and potential future tipping 
points such as CO2 release from thawing permafrost, should give us 
pause: we can’t easily predict what might happen. Every tenth of a 
degree matters if we want to minimise the harm we inflict on ourselves 
and leave to future generations.

But equally, just because we pass 1.5C does not mean that there is no 
way back. We know that if we can get emissions down to zero the world 
will effectively stop warming. And climate models show that if we remove 
more CO2 from the atmosphere than we are emitting it will actually cool 
the world back down. Removing CO2 from the atmosphere and oceans was 
highlighted in the recent IPCC report as an “essential element” of 
meeting our climate goals. Virtually all climate models suggest that we 
need to remove 6bn tons of CO2 per year by 2050 alongside rapid 
emissions reductions to bring temperatures back down to 1.5C by the end 
of the century.

One form of carbon dioxide removal people are already familiar with 
comes in the form of trees and soil. The Earth’s living systems already 
sequester about a quarter of the CO2 we emit today (with another quarter 
absorbed by the oceans). There is real potential to enhance this 
“natural carbon sink” by protecting forests, planting more of them, and 
changing how we manage agricultural land and pasture to get more carbon 
into the soil. This is relatively low cost today, but it is also likely 
to prove temporary. Trees may be cut down, burn down, or die from beetle 
infestations, while soil may dry up due to drought or heat – and these 
risks will increase as a result of climate change. There are also limits 
to the land available to use. All in all, models suggest that trees and 
soil could provide only half of the carbon dioxide removal that we need.
We have a saying in the climate science world – that CO2 is forever. It 
will take close to half a million years before a ton of CO2 emitted 
today from burning fossil fuels is completely removed from the 
atmosphere naturally. This means that when we try to neutralise or undo 
fossil fuel emissions – for example, with carbon offsets – those 
interventions should operate over a similar timeframe: a ton of 
emissions from cutting down trees can be neutralised by putting more 
carbon in trees or soils, but CO2 from fossil fuels needs to be balanced 
by more permanent carbon removal. This is the reason why the respected 
Science Based Targets initiative only allows measures that permanently 
remove carbon from the atmosphere to neutralise a company’s remaining 
fossil fuel emissions in their net-zero standard – and only alongside 
deep emissions reductions.

We should not oversell the role of carbon removal. The vast majority of 
the time it is cheaper to reduce emissions than to remove CO2 from the 
atmosphere after the fact. Models that limit warming to 1.5C show that 
we need to reduce global CO2 emissions by around 90%, while only using 
carbon removal for around 10%. But 10% of the solution to a problem as 
big as climate change is still something we cannot afford to ignore.

In 2021 the world spent a total of $755bn on reducing emissions. We 
should probably aim to spend about 1% of that money on carbon removal 
technologies. But we cannot simply sit back and assume that ways of 
removing billions of tons of CO2 per year will magically appear in the 
decades to come. By investing today, we can ensure that we are in a good 
position to make net-zero a reality, stop the world from continuing to 
heat up, and give ourselves the tools to ultimately reverse global 
warming in the future.

*Further reading*

    Ending Fossil Fuels: Why Net Zero Is Not Enough by Holly Jean Buck
    (Verso, £9.99)

    Under a White Sky: Can we save the natural world in time? by
    Elizabeth Kolbert (Vintage, £9.99)

    How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the
    Breakthroughs We Need by Bill Gates (Allen Lane, £20)

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/nov/14/the-big-idea-we-need-to-reverse-climate-change-not-just-stop-it

/[ Follow the money.... ]/
*Developing countries are calling for more funding and for changes at 
the World Bank. *
4 signs of progress at the UN climate change summit
Published: November 14, 2022
Rachel Kyte
Dean of the Fletcher School, Tufts University
- -
First, the goal – getting the world to net zero greenhouse gas emissions 
by 2050 to stop global warming – is clearer.

The last climate conference, COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, nearly fell 
apart over frustration that international finance wasn’t flowing to 
developing countries and that corporations and financial institutions 
were greenwashing – making claims they couldn’t back up. One year on, 
something is stirring...
- -
Second, how international financial institutions like the International 
Monetary Fund and World Bank are working is getting much-needed attention.

Over the past 12 months, frustration has grown with the international 
financial system, especially with the World Bank Group’s leadership. 
Low-income countries have long complained about having to borrow to 
finance resilience to climate impacts they didn’t cause, and they have 
called for development banks to take more risk and leverage more private 
investment for much-needed projects, including expanding renewable energy.

That frustration has culminated in pressure for World Bank President 
David Malpass to step down. Malpass, nominated by the Trump 
administration in 2019, has clung on for now, but he is under pressure 
from the U.S., Europe and others to bring forward a new road map for the 
World Bank’s response to climate change this year.
- -
Third, more public-private partnerships are being developed to speed 
decarbonization and power the clean energy transition.

The first of these “Just Energy Transition Partnerships,” announced in 
2021, was designed to support South Africa’s transition away from coal 
power. It relies on a mix of grants, loans and investments, as well as 
risk sharing to help bring in more private sector finance. Indonesia 
expects to announce a similar partnership when it hosts the G-20 summit 
in late November. Vietnam is working on another, and Egypt announced a 
major new partnership at COP27...
- -
Fourth, new rules are emerging to strengthen those voluntary carbon markets.

A new set of “high-integrity carbon credit principles” is expected in 
2023. A code of conduct for how corporations can use voluntary carbon 
markets to meet their net zero claims has already been issued, and 
standards for ensuring that a company’s plans meet the Paris Agreement’s 
goals are evolving.

Incredibly, all this progress is outside the Paris Agreement, which 
simply calls for governments to make “finance flows consistent with a 
pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient 
development.”

Negotiators seem reluctant to mention this widespread reform movement in 
the formal text being negotiated at COP27, but walking through the halls 
here, they cannot ignore it. It’s been too slow in coming, but change in 
the financial system is on the way.
https://theconversation.com/4-signs-of-progress-at-the-un-climate-change-summit-194345

/[ WAPO - voting pol//l  ]/
*How different groups voted according to exit polls and AP VoteCast*
87% of Democrats say CLimate Change is the Most important issue facing 
the country -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/exit-polls-2022-elections/ 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/exit-polls-2022-elections/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

/[ Facing the traumas ahead with your local Climate Resilience Hub ]/
*WHAT IS A CLIMATE RESILIENCE HUB?*
Climate Resilience Hubs are community institutions — libraries, 
churches, schools, nonprofits, local businesses and others — that help 
educate residents about extreme weather preparedness and other impacts 
of climate change. If they choose, hubs can also help residents respond 
to extreme weather events through material assistance. For instance, 
hubs can provide phone charging during a power outage, provide air 
conditioning during a heatwave, organize welfare checks on vulnerable 
neighbors, or deliver other services.
https://www.climatecrew.org/resilience_hubs?locale=en
- -
*Resilience Hubs*
http://resilience-hub.org/
- -
RESILIENCE HUBS are community-serving facilities augmented to support 
residents, coordinate communication, distribute resources, and reduce 
carbon pollution while enhancing quality of life. Resilience Hubs use a 
physical space – a building and its surrounding infrastructure – to meet 
numerous goals, both physical and social. Resilience hubs are an 
opportunity to efficiently improve emergency management, reduce climate 
pollution and enhance community resilience. These spaces also provide 
opportunities for communities to become more self-determining, socially 
connected, and successful in the long-term.
To learn more about the core components that make up a Resilience Hub, 
http://resilience-hub.org/core-components/
To understand more about the opportunity, 
http://resilience-hub.org/the-opportunity/
To get involved, http://resilience-hub.org/get-involved/
- -
NorCal
Resilience Hubs Initiative
* READY FOR ANYTHING*
The vision of the Resilience Hubs Initiative is to create a network of 
community centers, neighborhoods, places of worship and other trusted 
community sites that are models for resilience and  “ready for anything” 
– better prepared for natural disasters, climate change and other 
stresses in our community.
https://norcalresilience.org/resilient-hub-initiative/

/[ Opinion NYTimes ] /
*Paying for Climate Damage Isn’t Charity*
Nov. 11, 2022
By Ani Dasgupta
Mr. Dasgupta is the president and C.E.O. of the World Resources Institute.
- -
For nearly three decades, the countries most vulnerable to climate 
disasters have asked wealthy countries to help them pay for the damage, 
only to be stonewalled.
- -
It’s not a matter of charity. Taking action is firmly in rich countries’ 
own interests. As climate change bears down, more factories and ports 
around the world — the ones that wealthy nations rely on for their 
phones, car parts, fast fashion and even food — will close, devastating 
global supply chains. Food prices will rise. More people will be 
displaced, leading to additional migration crises. Conflict will grow 
more likely as people fight over land and water. The repercussions will 
destabilize even the most robust economies. Preventing that outcome now, 
by financing recovery from climate damage, will ensure a more stable 
future for everyone.

This kind of funding is called “loss and damage,” and it is meant to 
address climate impacts that people can’t simply adapt to. The concept 
may seem wonky, but it’s not: Loss has a name. Damage has an address.
- -
Some developed countries claim that humanitarian aid already meets the 
need. It does not. Humanitarian aid provides immediate shelter and food 
relief after a disaster strikes, but is not available, for example, to 
the Fijian islander who must relocate because of rising seas, or the 
fisherman in Palau whose livelihood evaporates after tuna migrate to 
cooler waters.

The initial loss and damage commitments are politically important. Yet 
the need is exponentially greater — these costs worldwide could reach 
$290 billion to $580 billion in 2030, according to one estimate.

A new fund to hold parties responsible could change the lives of 
billions of people on the front lines of climate change, offering a path 
to recovery where none exists today. When a cyclone hits, a government 
could quickly apply for funding and distribute it to help people rebuild 
destroyed homes. For continuing issues like droughts, the money could 
help farmers diversify their skills when their original livelihoods are 
no longer viable. But it could also improve the lives of people in 
wealthy countries, by building resilience to global supply chains, by 
stabilizing the economies where their businesses import and export 
goods, by creating the conditions for a more peaceful world.

As Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said this week at the 
conference, “Countries in the Global North that have caused climate 
change and have the greatest access to resources have an obligation to 
step up.”

Any more stonewalling by wealthy nations on finance for loss and damage 
could derail the entire climate negotiations here in Egypt. The world’s 
ability to tackle climate change hinges on trust between developed and 
developing countries, and without concrete progress to address these 
severe losses and damage, that trust risks being broken.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/opinion/environment/un-climate-change-conference-2022-reparations.html

/[ ENSO system -- and a bit of science -- nice video ]/
*Eastern Pacific Ocean is cooling NOT warming! Are the climate models 
wrong??*
Just Have a Think
Nov 13, 2022
Climate models have been getting more and more sophisticated as the 
power of super computers has increased exponentially over the last few 
years. But have all the variables been factored in? A machine is only as 
good as the person that builds it, after all. Now a new research paper 
has found some very strange temperature differences in the Eastern 
Pacific Ocean between climate models and observed 'real world' 
measurements. So, what's going on?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtjeNvTwYeU

/
/

/[ NYTimes science opinion guest essay ]/
*What Happens When a Cascade of Crises Collide?*
Nov. 13, 2022
It seems as if the world is encountering a “perfect storm” of 
simultaneous crises: The coronavirus pandemic is approaching the end of 
its third year; the war in Ukraine is threatening to go nuclear; extreme 
climate events are afflicting North America, Europe, Asia and Africa; 
and inflation is reaching rates unseen in decades and authoritarianism 
is on the march around the world. But the storm metaphor implies that 
this simultaneity is an unfortunate and temporary coincidence — that 
it’s humanity’s bad luck that everything seems to be going haywire all 
at once.

In reality, the likelihood that the current mess is a coincidence is 
vanishingly small. We’re almost certainly confronting something far more 
persistent and dangerous. We can see the crises of the moment, but we’re 
substantially blind to the hidden processes by which those crises worsen 
one another — and to the true dangers that may be enveloping us all.

Today’s mess is better understood as a global polycrisis, a term the 
historian Adam Tooze at Columbia has recently popularized. The term 
implies that humanity is dealing with a complex knot of seemingly 
distinct but actually deeply entangled crises. Precisely because these 
crises are so entangled, they’re causing worldwide damage much greater 
than the sum of their individual harms.
- -
The simultaneity of crises we’re experiencing hints that something else 
is also happening — risk synchronization. Complex and largely 
unrecognized causal links among the world’s economic, social and 
ecological systems may be causing many risks to go critical at nearly 
the same time. If so, the apparent simultaneity isn’t just a temporary 
coincidence; it’s likely to persist and could ultimately overwhelm the 
capacity of society to adapt, and push some places into outright 
collapse, as we may be witnessing right now in Haiti.

But we don’t really know because, generally, experts at evaluating risk 
have deeply specialized and siloed knowledge — in economics, for 
example, or epidemiology. This knowledge rarely translates into detailed 
understandings of other systemic risks at play and how they might affect 
one another in turn. So, for example, while specialists in climate 
change’s economic impacts know something about how climate heating 
aggravates economic inequality within and between societies, they know 
very little about how it impacts ideological extremism. And they give 
virtually no attention to the possibility that causation might operate 
in the reverse direction, too — that inequality and extremism might 
worsen climate heating.

Yet it’s likely all these processes are now operating. Climate heating 
is harming people’s health and causing weather disasters, affecting 
infrastructure and food production all over the planet. In poorer 
countries, these changes are constraining economic growth and widening 
existing economic inequalities. Lower growth and bigger inequalities, 
wherever they happen, intensify ideological extremism. And that 
extremism is likely making it harder to build national and international 
consensus around cutting greenhouse gas emissions, allowing the heating 
problem to steadily worsen.

These sorts of vicious cycles are what complexity scientists call 
self-reinforcing “positive feedbacks.” We tend to see bits and pieces of 
a causal loop, but not the whole thing. For that reason, we urgently 
need to identify and monitor these feedbacks and ferret out those still 
unrecognized to establish whether they are synchronizing the world’s 
systemic risks. Businesses do similar kinds of risk analysis by 
diagraming causal loops in the dynamic systems affecting them. In this 
case, the system is the planet itself. It goes back to the ecologist 
Barry Commoner’s first rule of ecology — everything is connected to 
everything else — but with a crucial amendment: some kinds of 
connections matter a lot more than others.

We propose a worldwide scientific collaboration to identify the causal 
mechanisms operating among these risks. This collaboration would consist 
of a global consortium of nationally funded institutes. It would be 
dedicated, first, to studying mechanisms that are amplifying, 
accelerating and synchronizing global systemic risks and, second, to 
determining practical ways humanity might intervene. It would also look 
for ways these feedbacks might be harnessed to tip key economic, social, 
and ecological systems toward better outcomes.

This consortium would act as the international scientific complement to 
the Futures Lab proposed by the United Nations secretary general, 
António Guterres, which is intended to integrate humanity’s “work around 
forecasting, megatrends and risks.” And it would report regularly to 
both the participating governments and the global public with the 
explicit aim of galvanizing action to address the polycrisis.

It’s vitally important to get this kind of initiative underway. 
“Business as usual,” Mr. Guterres has warned, “could result in breakdown 
of the global order, into a world of perpetual crisis and winner-takes-all.”

Thomas Homer-Dixon is the executive director of the Cascade Institute at 
Royal Roads University in British Columbia. Johan Rockström is a 
director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and 
professor in earth system science at the University of Potsdam...
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/13/opinion/coronavirus-ukraine-climate-inflation.html 

/[The news archive - looking back at another pundit speaking out - could 
have been yesterday ]/
/*November 15, 2012*/
November 15, 2012: Speaking at Harvard University on the outcome of the 
2012 presidential election, New York Times columnist David Brooks notes 
the ruthlessness of the Koch Brothers, and the power they wield within 
the GOP.

(63:00-66:00)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xle0m_EdvVI&sns=em

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