[✔️] November 17, 2022 - Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Thu Nov 17 09:10:08 EST 2022
/*November 17, 2022*/
/[ the great disruption ]/
*Climate change will clearly disrupt El Niño and La Niña this decade –
40 years earlier than we thought**
*November 15, 2022
Wenju Cai - Chief Research Scientist, Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO, CSIRO
You’ve probably heard a lot about La Niña lately. This cool weather
pattern is the main driver of heavy rain and flooding that has
devastated much of Australia’s southeast in recent months.
You may also have heard of El Niño, which alternates with La Niña every
few years. El Niño typically brings drier conditions to much of Australia.
Together, the two phases are known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation –
the strongest and most consequential factor driving Earth’s weather. And
in recent years there has been much scientific interest in how climate
change will influence this global weather-maker.
Our new research, released today, sheds light on the question. It found
climate change will clearly influence the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
by 2030 – in just eight years’ time. This has big implications for how
Australians prepare for extreme weather events...
- -
*What we found*
We examined 70 years of data on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation since
1950, and combined it with 58 of the most advanced climate models available.
We found the influence of climate change on El Niño and La Niña events,
in the form of ocean surface temperature changes in the eastern Pacific,
will be detectable by 2030. This is four decades earlier than previously
thought.
Scientists already knew climate change was affecting the El
Niño–Southern Oscillation. But because the oscillation is itself so
complex and variable, it’s been hard to identify where the change is
occurring most strongly.
However, our study shows the effect of climate change, manifesting as
changes in ocean surface temperature in the tropical eastern Pacific,
will be obvious and unambiguous within about eight years.
So what does all this mean for Australia? Warming of the eastern Pacific
Ocean, fuelled by climate change, will cause stronger El Niño events.
When this happens, rain bands are drawn away from the western Pacific
where Australia is located. That’s likely to mean more droughts and dry
conditions in Australia.
It’s also likely to bring more rain to the eastern Pacific, which spans
the Pacific coast of Central America from southern Mexico to northern Peru.
Strong El Niño events are often followed by strong and prolonged La
Niñas. So that will mean cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean, bringing
the rain band back towards Australia – potentially leading to more heavy
rain and flooding of the kind we’ve seen in recent months.
https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-clearly-disrupt-el-nino-and-la-nina-this-decade-40-years-earlier-than-we-thought-194529
- -
/[ a 7 year old YouTube video helps with understanding ]/
*Understanding ENSO*
Bureau of Meteorology
418,260 views Dec 15, 2014
Improve your understanding of the El Niño and La Niña and their impacts
on our climate and weather with our new Understanding ENSO video
This video explains what El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is, how the
cycle works including the science behind the phases, and the potential
impacts on Australia’s climate and weather.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzat16LMtQk
- -
/[ posted in Nature Communications ]/
Published: 15 November 2022
*Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El
Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate*
Tao Geng, Wenju Cai, Lixin Wu, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Zhao Jing,
Bolan Gan, Yun Yang, Shujun Li, Shengpeng Wang, Zhaohui Chen & Michael
J. McPhaden
Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 6616 (2022) Cite this
article
*Abstract*
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) features strong warm events in
the eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), or mild warm and strong cold
events in the central Pacific (CP), with distinct impacts on global
climates. Under transient greenhouse warming, models project
increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability of both ENSO
regimes, but the timing of emergence out of internal variability
remains unknown for either regime. Here we find increased EP-ENSO
SST variability emerging by around 2030 ± 6, more than a decade
earlier than that of CP-ENSO, and approximately four decades earlier
than that previously suggested without separating the two regimes.
The earlier EP-ENSO emergence results from a stronger increase in
EP-ENSO rainfall response, which boosts the signal of increased SST
variability, and is enhanced by ENSO non-linear atmospheric
feedback. Thus, increased ENSO SST variability under greenhouse
warming is likely to emerge first in the eastern than central
Pacific, and decades earlier than previously anticipated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzat16LMtQk
/[ Basic solutions offered at COP27 ]/
*Pathways to Reducing Black Carbon and Methane Emissions Impacting
Arctic Climate and Air Quality*
International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
Nov. 16, 2022
499 subscribers
Pathways to Reducing Black Carbon and Methane Emissions Impacting Arctic
Climate and Air Quality
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ft6Lxsck9ac
/
/
/[ innovation will help us stop UNDER-counting methane emissions ]/
*Al Gore’s New Tool Can Zoom in on the Biggest Polluters in Your Town*
A map from Climate TRACE can pinpoint greenhouse gas emissions from
various sectors, down to the individual facility.
By Molly Taft
Nov 16, 2022
If you’ve ever wondered how much methane the landfill in your
neighborhood emits, there’s now a way to potentially find out. A
promising new tool can zoom in on spots around the world in various
industries to measure just how much greenhouse gases those locations and
facilities are emitting.
The mapping tool, released last week at COP27 by the organization
Climate TRACE, uses hundreds of satellites, thousands of mounted
sensors, and various artificial intelligence models to measure the
global emissions of different greenhouse gases from major sectors,
including oil and gas production, waste disposal and management,
agriculture, forestry and land use, transportation and power.
The tool is remarkable in its specificity: It can trace emissions from
individual sites like landfills, power plants, and cattle farms, giving
both an overall picture of global emissions from certain industries as
well as incredibly detailed information on specific locations. Using the
map, you can zoom in on emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide—as well as all of those emissions together—by different
sectors, and see where some of our biggest greenhouse gas problems are
coming from.
The level of granular detail you can access using this tool is really
something. Want to find the landfill with the most CO2 emissions in the
U.S.? That’d be a facility in Michigan. How about the mining operation
with the most CO2 emissions in the world? It’s an iron mine in
Australia. The biggest single source of agricultural methane emissions
from cattle worldwide? A beef farm in Texas. Even emissions from moving
entities like cargo ships can be tracked. If the interactive map isn’t
your jam, all of the data and associated methodology are available for
download, so you can play around with Excel files of cement emissions to
your heart’s content.
“Of course, the world has long known what the overall amount of
greenhouse gas pollution in the atmosphere is,” Al Gore, one of the
founding members of the coalition, told Protocol. “What’s different
about this [database] is the accurate apportioning of who’s responsible
for what and the granularity that allows us a focus on specific
emissions sources.” Gore told Protocol he had “no doubt” that the data
“will be put to a lot of use in negotiations for sure.”..
The entire dataset put together, Climate TRACE says, reveals some pretty
staggering findings. The top 500 sites with the largest emissions in the
world, which include individual power plants, oil and gas production
fields, and other high-emitter locations, are a tiny fraction of the
data but represent 14% of the world’s emissions in 2021, more than all
the emissions of the U.S. About half of the biggest 50 emitters, the
data show, are oil and gas production fields.
There’s a whole lot of utility to having a wealth of third-party data
like this available on a public forum. A lot of industries self-report
their emissions, which can lead to some big gaps between what companies
claim is going on and the reality. A report released by the
International Energy Agency last year found that the fossil fuel
industry is especially bad at this, undercounting its methane emissions
by as much as 70%. Getting a more accurate third-party picture of where
emissions are actually coming from is the first step in increased
regulations to bring those emissions down.
But as Climate TRACE notes, pinpointing emissions from a specific
location is just the start of figuring out where to assign blame.
“Consider something as ‘simple’ as an individual power plant and its
owner,” the organization said in a release posted to its site. “Should
the emissions be assigned to the immediate owner? To a parent company if
it’s wholly owned? To equity investors? To the offtaker of the power,
whether a utility or another entity? These are tough decisions, but we
can’t even consider making such decisions if we can’t map emissions down
to specific sources.”
https://gizmodo.com/al-gores-new-tool-can-zoom-in-on-emissions-in-your-town-1849786018
- -
/[ Here it is -- try it out for your area (it may be slow, popular or
targeted) ]/
*CLIMATE TRACE*
INDEPENDENT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TRACKING
We harness satellite imagery and other forms of remote sensing,
artificial intelligence, and collective data science expertise to track
human-caused GHG emissions with unprecedented detail and speed.
Climate TRACE’s emissions inventory is the world’s first comprehensive
accounting of GHG emissions based primarily on direct, independent
observation. Our innovative, open, and accessible approach relies on
advances in technology to fill critical knowledge gaps for all decision
makers that rely on the patchwork system of self-reporting that serves
as the basis for most existing emissions inventories.
https://climatetrace.org/map
/[ Cryopsphere futures presented with Jason Box at COP27 ]/
*Antarctica and Greenland: Nearing Thresholds from Different Ends*
International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
Nov 15, 2022
Antarctica and Greenland: Nearing Thresholds from Different Ends
https://youtu.be/UF-u9Tkk-cE?t=1847
- -
/[ More fundamentals on the loss of the Arctic ]/
*If We Lose the Arctic, We Lose the World*
International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8EegVhxYY8
/[ looking back to the ancient times of 2016 ]/
*DEAN WALKER AND PETER MELTON w/ KATHERINE HAYHOE - The early days of
facing climate change - 2016*
The Poetry of Predicament
Nov 14, 2022
About five years ago Peter Melton and I were guests on the Immense
Possibilities show of our friend, Jeff Golden, here in Southern Oregon.
Jeff had also prerecorded an interview with Katherine Hayhoe.
Kind of sad how little is different now re the conversations and actions
re the human-caused destruction of both Earth and Human Systems.
Oh well...
enjoy.
___
Living Resilience:
Offering transformative support and resources to people
bravely facing the human-caused Collapse of Earth and Human Systems.
A shorter way to say it:
Profound Support and Resources Facing Troubled Times.
https://living-resilience.mn.co
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMQJbQh6aWo
/[ Commonsense innovations - stores heat - FUTURE PLANET | RENEWABLE
ENERGY ]/
*How a sand battery could transform clean energy*
By Erika Benke
3rd November 2022
A new way of storing renewable energy is providing clean heat through
the long Nordic nights.
- -
The renewable energy powers a resistance heater which heats up the air
inside the sand. Inside the battery, this hot air is circulated by a fan
around the sand through heat exchange pipes.
Thick insulation surrounds the sand, keeping the temperature inside the
battery at 600C (1,112F), even when it is freezing outside. "We don't
want to lose any heat; the average winter temperature is below 0C (32F)
in Kankanpää," says Ville Kivioja, lead scientist at Polar Night Energy,
who monitors the battery's performance online.
The battery stores 8 MWh of thermal energy when full. When energy demand
rises, the battery discharges about 200 kW of power through the
heat-exchange pipes: that's enough to provide heating and hot water for
about 100 homes and a public swimming pool in Kankaanpää, supplementing
power from the grid. The battery is charged overnight when the
electricity prices are lower.
It's a low-maintenance system, says Kivioja. The company uses cheap,
low-quality sand that's been rejected by builders instead of high
quality river-sand which is used in vast quantities for construction,
leading to a global shortage.
"There's no wear and tear involved with the [heat exchange] pipes and
the sand. The fan is the only moving part and it's easy to replace if
necessary," says Kivioja.
Sand is a very effective medium for retaining heat over a long period,
storing power for months at a time. And there are other benefits too.
"The sand has a very long lifetime: it can heat up and cool off any
number of times," says Kivioja. "It will get denser after a while so
needs less space. At that point we can add more sand."...
- -
In 2016, while doing research for his engineering Master's degree,
Eronen was looking into water-based storage systems for renewable
energy. But while reading an article about traditional Finnish
fireplaces, made from stone and sand, Eronen had a lightbulb moment.
"It got me thinking: would a solid material, rather than water, be more
suitable for storing solar and wind energy?" Eronen says.
Together with Ylönen, he started developing the sand battery prototype.
Having successfully tested their pilot battery in Eronen's grandfather's
garden near Tampere, the pair recruited their childhood friends from the
athletics club to start Polar Night Energy. In July, they installed the
first commercial sand battery at the Vatajankoski power plant in Kankaanpää.
*
**Storing green energy*
The innovation has generated a flurry of excitement around the globe.
"My phone is constantly ringing and I have thousands of unread emails,"
says Eronen.
A small commercial application of a new energy storage system rarely
becomes a hot topic, but the sand battery has attracted attention for
its potential to even out the power supply from renewable sources (see
The search for steady supply box).
Viable storage of solar and wind energy is especially critical for
Nordic countries which have long hours of darkness and an increased need
for heat in the winter, but extended hours of sunlight in the summer...
- -
One big problem with lithium-ion batteries, which we use to power our
laptops, phones and electric vehicles, is that they continuously
degrade, even when they are not in use, says Pongrácz. "There's no
chemical reaction in sand batteries so they don't go through a similar
process of ageing," says Pongrácz.
Lithium batteries are not suitable for large-scale storage applications,
says Yulong Ding, director of the Birmingham Centre for Energy Storage
in the UK, adding that they are also inherently flammable.
Then there are the environmental concerns. "Lithium has a much bigger
environmental impact than sand," says Pongrácz. For every tonne of
refined lithium produced, the equivalent of between around three and
nine tonnes of CO2 is emitted, depending on how it is extracted.
But the Polar Night Energy team face some big challenges: can they scale
up their technology to really make a difference and can they use it to
generate significant amounts of electricity in addition to heat?
There are of course limitations, experts note. "A sand battery stores
five to 10 times less energy [per unit volume] than traditional chemical
batteries," says Dan Gladwin from the department of electronic and
electrical engineering at the University of Sheffield in the UK...
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221102-how-a-sand-battery-could-transform-clean-energy
/[The news archive - looking back at an elected ogre ]/
/*November 17, 2006*/
November 17, 2006: MSNBC's Keith Olbermann calls out Oklahoma Senator
James Inhofe for simultaneously trafficking in climate denial and blasphemy:
"But our winner, Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma, who until January
will remain the chairman of the Senate Committee on the Environment and
Public Works. This morning he declared that any global warming is owed
to 'natural causes' and is 'due to the sun.'
'God’s still up there,' he added.
"So, Senator, you’re blaming global warming on God?
"Senator James 'Is it just me or is it hot in here' Inhofe, Friday’s
'Worst Person in the World.'"
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/15814614/ns/msnbc-countdown_with_keith_olbermann/t/worst-person-world-sen-james-inhofe/
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