[✔️] October 11, 2022 - Global Warming News - daily selection

Tue Oct 11 07:22:37 EDT 2022

/*October 11, 2022*/

/[  COP27 agenda summary from /Carbon Brief Daily /] /
*Loss and damage' Debate set to dominate the COP27 agenda*
Camilla Hodgson, Financial Times

Many publications carry stories on how conversations around “loss and 
damage” could dominate COP27, the UN climate summit taking place in 
Egypt in a few weeks. The FT reports that world leaders “are gearing up 
for a renewed battle over how much financial support rich countries 
provide to developing nations, to help them cope with the consequences 
of rising global temperatures”. It continues: “The question of so-called 
‘loss and damage’ funding for developing nations has been contentious 
for years, with rich countries reluctant to accept financial 
responsibility for climate change caused by industrial activity and 
offer compensation to poorer countries. But many developing countries, 
such as the low-lying Pacific island states vulnerable to sea level 
rise, are stepping up their demands. They want to see the creation of an 
international loss and damage finance facility.” (The FT story is part 
of a “special report on managing climate change”, which also features an 
article on how global food and energy crises “threaten to distract” from 
COP27 and an article on Egypt’s climate activists fear “consequences” 
for protesting at the summit.) Reuters reports on a document suggesting 
“Caribbean nations will unite to seek ‘loss and damage’ compensation” at 
the talks. Associated Press reports that Germany also “wants” loss and 
damage finance to be on the agenda at COP27. BBC News reports that young 
climate activists are also pushing for loss and damage finance to be 
high on the agenda at COP27. Bloomberg reports on how Pakistan’s recent 
floods could reignite loss and damage talks at the summit.
https://www.getrevue.co/profile/CarbonBriefDailyBriefing/issues/carbon-brief-daily-10-10-2022-1397311
https://www.ft.com/content/3195ce2f-d4b3-4f9d-b6d4-6a05aa3da01a?

/[ climate activism in the DC area ]/
*Climate Protesters Spur Miles-long Backup on Capital Beltway in Silver 
Spring*
Maryland State Police arrested seven people after protesters shut down 
part of I-495 in Montgomery County, Maryland
https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/climate-protesters-spur-miles-long-backup-on-capital-beltway-in-silver-spring-officials/3178304/

/[ see this video -- ABC10 weathercast about large scale changing 
weather patterns ]/
*California Drought: 'A train wreck of dryness' - The atmosphere is 
working against rain*
Oct 9, 2022  California Drought: ABC10 meteorologist Brenden Mincheff 
explores the complex relationships between atmospheric oscillations and 
drought in California.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwRYc-K9R9k

/[ Just Have a Think,  video commentary 13 mins - updated understanding ]/
*We fixed the Ozone Layer, right?.. didn't we??*
Oct 9, 2022  The ozone layer is a vital component of our atmosphere. 
Without it the sun's UV rays would sterilise the planet. In the 1980s we 
discovered we were badly damaging the layer, so a major global 
initiative was created to repair it. But, did it work? And if we could 
mobilise to address this issue, why didn't we do the same thing for 
greenhouse gas emissions?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FRgEclRXmU

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/[ everything he produces is worth viewing -- great reports  video 
channel ]/
https://www.youtube.com/c/ClimateTown/
/

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/[ tic-toc video is play only, no fast forwards ]/
*Is the new climate bill good or bad?*
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TWXtm0B_JkE/
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/[ UK blunders in failing to go green ]/
//*Analysis: UK’s gas imports would be 13% lower if it had not ‘cut the 
green crap’*
8 October 2022
SIMON EVANS
The findings come as the government’s North Sea Transition Authority 
announces a new licensing round for North Sea oil and gas, with the 
stated aim of increasing UK energy security. The analysis also follows 
news that the UK is at risk of blackouts if imports of gas and 
electricity are restricted.

Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that UK gas imports would have been cut by 
65 terawatt hours (TWh) if government support for energy efficiency and 
renewables had continued, instead of being rolled back after then-prime 
minister David Cameron told ministers in 2013 to “cut the green crap”.

This saving would have been nearly twice as large as the 34TWh imported 
from Russia last year. It would have been sufficient to cut the UK’s net 
gas imports by 13% overall, significantly boosting energy security. The 
saving would have avoided buying 65TWh of gas at a cost of around £5bn.

Most of the savings would have been from additional onshore wind and 
solar capacity, which would have cut UK gas demand for electricity by 
20%. Moreover, the analysis shows that gas demand for electricity 
generation would have been twice as high, if the UK had no renewable 
energy sources.

‘Cutting the green crap’
 From 2013 onwards, successive Conservative-led governments cut support 
for home energy efficiency improvements, scrapped a requirement for new 
homes to be “zero carbon”, ended subsidies for onshore wind and solar, 
and effectively banned onshore wind in England.

This caused a precipitous decline in the rate of home energy efficiency 
improvements, led to millions of inefficient new homes being built and 
dramatically reduced the amount of onshore wind and solar capacity being 
built each year, as shown in Carbon Brief’s January 2022 analysis.

The new Carbon Brief analysis aggregates these climate policy rollbacks 
in terms of the gas demand they would have avoided, if the measures had 
remained in place.

In total, UK gas demand would have been 65TWh lower if it had insulated 
more homes (11TWh), built new homes to zero-carbon standards (2TWh) and 
continued to add onshore wind (31TWh) and solar (20TWh) at historical rates.

This saving from not “cutting the green crap” is shown by the red bars 
in the chart below, relative to UK gas demand in 2021 (grey) and 
relative to net UK gas imports in the same year (light blue). The chart 
also shows direct imports from Russia in 2021 in dark blue...
- -
At the £77 per megawatt hour average price of gas during 2022 to date, 
this 65TWh would have amounted to a saving worth £5bn in avoided gas costs.

Electricity supply
The majority of the savings would have come from continuing to build 
onshore wind and solar at historical rates, instead of seeing their 
growth collapse due to climate policy rollbacks.

Carbon Brief’s analysis assumes onshore wind would have grown at the 
same rate as in 2017, when 1.8 gigawatts (GW) was built, meaning an 
extra 5.4GW being built by the end of 2021. It assumes an extra 10GW of 
solar capacity would have been added during 2016-2021. This is based, 
conservatively, on adding capacity at 2016 levels, well below the peak 
seen in 2017...
- -
In total, this 15GW of extra renewable capacity would have generated 
some 25TWh of electricity per year on average. Generating this 
electricity at average UK gas-fired power stations would require 51TWh 
of gas, because half the energy in the fuel is lost as waste heat.

This saving from not “cutting the green crap” is shown by the red bar in 
the chart below – a 20% cut relative to actual UK gas demand for 
electricity generation in 2021 (grey)...
- -
In addition, the chart shows how much more gas would have been needed if 
the UK had not got 40% of its electricity from renewable sources in 2021.

The UK would have needed to double the 254TWh of gas used to generate 
electricity last year, if it had not had any supplies from wind, solar, 
hydro and biomass power.

This would have increased UK gas demand in 2021 by 29% at a cost of 
around £10bn.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-gas-imports-would-be-13-lower-if-it-had-not-cut-the-green-crap/

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/[ Nate Hagens - climate commentator, educator and now enumerator -- 14 
min video]/
*The 7 Stages of Climate Awareness | Frankly #10*
Sep 30, 2022  On this weeks Frankly, I highlight (what was in my case) 
Seven Stages of Climate Awareness – from recognizing ‘there is an 
environment’ to understanding that the systems dynamics of the human 
economy implies a much different choreography of societal response than 
is currently being advertised and pursued. Global warming is becoming 
more obvious to more people, but the interventions look quite different 
at Stage 7 than Stage 4.  It is unlikely we’ll find ‘solutions’ without 
first understanding the dynamics at its core.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDi82plBOh4

/[  Use this site to get long term predictions ]/
*Climate News*
La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 
2022-23, with La Niña chances decreasing in January-March 2023 (8 Sep 
2022) 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

/[ another good rant -- play it at fast speed -  28 minute video ]/
*The Biggest Myth About Climate Change*
Sep 15, 2022  Check out America Outdoors Understory on @PBS : 
https://youtu.be/s-R1p89zHnk
You’ve seen it in the comment section before: “Climate change is 
natural. It’s happened before and it will keep happening”. In reality, 
comments like these are the newest kind of climate change denial. In 
this video we’re going to learn about all the reasons that Earth’s 
climate changes, natural and otherwise, and then how we know that modern 
climate change can’t be blamed on natural forces. Maybe we can finally 
put this biggest myth about climate change in the trash.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6bVBH9y5O8

/[ new magazine in Australia = Sight ]/
*Climate impacts: US east coast faces "competing catastrophies" as fire 
risk grows*
09 October 2022
DAVID SHERFINSKI
Nags Head, North Carolina
Thomson Reuters Foundation

Nags Head, a quiet beachfront community of colourful wooden homes in 
North Carolina's Outer Banks, faces no shortage of climate 
change-fuelled threats, from wilder storms to sea level rise and flooding.

A survey of some of the coastal resort town's residents, for a state 
resilience report released in May, found nearly 80 per cent had been 
impacted by flooding or hurricanes.
But as global temperatures approach a key 1.5 degrees Celsius level of 
warming that scientists fear could herald a transition to far costlier 
and deadlier climate change impacts, a new threat is rising in normally 
water-threatened Nags Head: wildfire.

Western US states, including California, have grown accustomed to 
dealing with catastrophic-scale wildfires in the face of a relentless 
increase in "fire weather" - conditions of record temperatures, low 
humidity and high winds.
But now similar threats are quietly spreading across the nation, 
including into states not up to now thought of as at significant risk.

North Carolina saw 5,151 wildland fires in 2021, the third most in the 
country after California and Texas. In March, a thousand acres burned 
just a short drive from Nags Head, after a fire prevention blaze went wrong.

The eastern seaboard state still ranks 23rd nationally in the area 
affected by wildfires, with 10,500 hectares burned in 2021, according to 
the National Interagency Fire Center.

But North and South Carolina have some of the largest numbers of 
properties threatened by wildfire after California and New Mexico, 
according to a May report by First Street Foundation, a non-profit that 
maps climate risks.

"Wildfire risk is increasing so much faster than even flood risk is 
across the US," said Ed Kearns, the group's chief data officer. "And 
it's likely to affect areas that aren't thought of as wildfire-prone 
areas right now, but will be soon."

Global temperatures have risen more than 1.2 degrees Celsius since 
preindustrial times, and oil, gas and coal use - the major driver of 
that increase - are still rising, despite pledges to slash emissions...
- -
"It's the hurricanes and the rising water – they're right in 
[residents'] face all the time, and wildfire may not be," said Duncan, 
now the executive secretary for Grassroots Wildland Firefighters, an 
advocacy group.

"Which one do you put your time and energy into the most?" she asked. 
"What's the biggest bang for the buck?"
On the Dare County mainland, less than an hour's drive from Nags Head, a 
huge wildfire torched more than 1,000 acres of land in March...
- -
"There's just been so many damn fires," Van Riper said, lowering his 
voice to a whisper.

"Too many fires," the forest fire equipment operator added.

Cook said steady development in the Nags Head area - including a 
build-up of trees, shrubs and other flammable vegetation - is increasing 
the risk of wildfires.

Close to 5,000 properties in the town of Nags Head - 87 per cent of the 
total - now have some risk of being affected by wildfire in the next 
three decades, according to First Street Foundation.

That risk in populated areas of Nags Head is, on average, higher than in 
70 per cent of communities nationwide, the federal mapping tool Wildfire 
Risk to Communities shows.

"Hurricanes, fires, floods - we got a little bit of everything here," 
Cook said.
Nags Head Mayor Ben Cahoon said wildfires were a concern but resources 
were limited in a coastal town where erosion, hurricanes and flooding 
are more immediate dangers.

He hailed the town's beach nourishment plan which periodically installs 
fresh sand and plantings to protect beachfront homes and infrastructure 
– a top priority for a community at risk of being swallowed by rising seas.

The survey of residents released in May, which showed most had been 
impacted by floods or hurricanes, found only one person so far affected 
by wildfires.
- -
Still, "we spend so much time talking about floods," Cahoon admitted. 
"We probably should be a little more attentive to [fire], talk to our 
citizens a little bit more about it than we do."

Residents, so far, aren't particularly worried.

"I've been here 37 years," said Bryan Whitehurst, a co-owner of 
Greentail's Seafood Market and Kitchen in Nags Head and a resident of 
nearby Kill Devil Hills. "There's been fires, but nothing they haven't 
been able to put out."

Elena Shevliakova, a senior climate modeller at the US National Oceanic 
and Atmospheric Administration, said authorities need to start thinking 
now about how to protect the public from worsening wildfire threats.

"How are you going to change your management of fires? And how are you 
going to do urban planning?" she asked.

In Dare County, local, state and federal officials are working to cut 
the risks with efforts like prescribed burns in Nags Head Woods Preserve 
and Jockey's Ridge State Park, both of which abut residential 
neighbourhoods.

Residents are slowly coming around to the idea of "good fire" that can 
cut threats by removing vegetation that burns easily, said Kayla Barnes, 
a Dare County ranger for the state's Forest Service.

But Hallac, of the National Park Service, said it can be challenging to 
communicate rising levels of risk to people who might never have seen a 
big wildfire before.

"I'm sure that if we had a large wildfire that threatened or impacted 
private dwellings, [it] would become a hot topic," he said. Wildfires 
"are not a huge issue until they are."
https://www.sightmagazine.com.au/features/27066-climate-impacts-us-east-coast-faces-competing-catastrophies-as-fire-risk-grows

/[The news archive - looking back]/
/*October 11, 2015*/
October 11, 2015:

The New York Times editorial page observes:

"Misinformation about climate change is distressingly common in the 
United States — a 2014 Yale study found that 35 percent of Americans 
believe that global warming is caused mostly by natural phenomena rather 
than human activity, and 34 percent think there is a lot of disagreement 
among scientists about whether global warming is even happening. (In 
fact, an overwhelming majority of scientists agree that climate change 
is here and that it is caused by humans.) One way to stop the spread of 
this misinformation is to teach children about climate change.

"The Next Generation Science Standards offer one guide for doing so. 
Developed by a committee of scientists and education experts and honed 
by teams in 26 states before their release in 2013, the standards set 
forth a variety of scientific practices and concepts for students from 
kindergarten through 12th grade to master.

"Middle school students should understand that 'human activities, such 
as the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, are major 
factors in the current rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature.' In 
high school, students should learn that human-caused environmental 
changes, including climate change, 'can disrupt an ecosystem and 
threaten the survival of some species,' and they should be able to use 
climate models to determine the rate of climate change and its possible 
effects."

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/teaching-the-truth-about-climate-change.html 

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