[✔️] August 20, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | BC emergency. Fire and Smoke map, BBC how wildfires heats stratosphere. DTFM or Do The F-in Math that's 170 years, 2013 Cullen and Mann

[Richard Pauli]

/*August 20*//*, 2023*/

/[ British Columbia declares emergency ]/
*Canada wildfires: British Columbia declares state of emergency - BBC News*
BBC News
Aug 19, 2023  #Canada #BritishColumbia #Wildfires
A state of emergency has been declared in Canada's western British 
Columbia province, as a fast-moving wildfire threatens to destroy more 
homes in the area around the city of West Kelowna.

Premier David Eby warned that "the situation has evolved rapidly and we 
are in for an extremely challenging situation in the days ahead".
Some 4,800 people are now under evacuation orders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AV5Pmok2Z58

- -

[ Canada hosts the big conflagrations ]
*‘One climate disaster after another’: North America’s long hot summer*
 From Hawaii to Canada, searing heat and deadly wildfires are raising 
the alarm about global warming

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F66943e97-ad61-436a-bf36-21c4d3b840ac.jpg?dpr=2&fit=scale-down&quality=medium&source=next&width=700

https://www.ft.com/content/da0149d3-1a5f-41de-9c3b-83ad3562ac98


/[ Special Smoke Outlook Issued for Your Location in North America ]/
* v3.1Fire and Smoke Map*
https://fire.airnow.gov/



/[//BBC offers a//little atmospheric science primer -- (cough, hack, 
spit and curse) ] /
*How Canada's wildfires are warming the stratosphere*
Extreme wildfires are increasing due to rising emissions, but they also 
disrupt the climate in return. Weighing up the overall impact, however, 
is tricker than it seems.

Apocalyptic images of wildfire devastation – from charred homes to 
cities shrouded in deadly smoke – are fast coming to embody the world's 
unfolding climate disaster.

In Hawaii this August, the death toll is still rising after the 
deadliest US wildfire in over a century ripped through Maui. In Canada, 
extreme fires blazing across the country are more widespread than at any 
other time on record.

Research has shown that wildfires' likelihood and intensity have already 
increased due to human-caused global temperature rise. But there is 
still so much we don't yet understand about these powerful phenomena. 
Not least, wildfires' own ability to alter and disrupt climate systems 
long after their flames die out.

One of the most far-reaching ways fires impact the climate is their 
ability to release vast quantities of carbon stored in trees and soils 
into the atmosphere. In a vicious feed-back loop, the additional CO2 
then contributes to the same long-term warming of the planet that makes 
the fires themselves more likely. In 2020 alone, California's wildfires 
were estimated to have negated 16 years of the state's cuts to 
greenhouse gas emissions. Forest regrowth may occur, the researchers 
suggest, but not fast enough to help keep global warming under the 1.5C 
limit...

Not all of wildfires' impacts on climate are so long-lasting, however. 
Nor do all produce warming. By blocking sunlight and attracting 
additional water droplets that brighten clouds, smoke aerosols can 
reflect sunlight back into space, leading to localised cooling in the 
lower atmosphere.

This cooling effect typically only lasts until rain washes the aerosols 
back to earth. Yet as wildfires increase in scale, even these more 
temporary impacts are expanding their reach and duration. Australia's 
2019-2020 fire season, for instance, produced a widespread smoke-induced 
cooling that may have influenced the recent "triple dip" in the La Niña 
weather pattern, research suggests.

Understanding how wildfires' various impacts interact is therefore key 
to understanding their overall impact on the climate – and thus to 
guiding humanity's attempts to limit dangerous climate change.
*
**Super outbreaks*
Calculating the net warming or cooling effect of wildfires means 
considering their impact across various time-scales and levels of the 
atmosphere, from surface up. One avenue of research has thus focused on 
the stratospheric reactions that take place 4-31 miles (6-50km) up in 
the air.

Beneath this level, the lower troposphere is warming due to rising 
levels of CO2. Yet the same trend is also cooling the stratosphere, 
where thinner air allows the carbon dioxide to release its energy into 
space...
- -
Once airborne, the black carbon in these wildfire aerosols absorb heat, 
causing them to rise and warm the surrounding stratosphere, says 
Matthias Stocker from the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change 
at the University of Graz, Austria.

His research on large wildfires' stratospheric impact has shown that 
smoke from the pyroCb super outbreak in Australia in 2019-20 caused the 
stratosphere to warm very strongly (by up to 10C/18F) during the plumes' 
early development. Over the next few months, it remained an average of 
3.5C (6.3F) warmer, before the aerosols sank back to earth.
  Canada has this year seen by far its most active pyroCb year over the 
last decade, says David A Peterson, a meteorologist with the US Naval 
Research Laboratory in Washington DC, which is attempting to create a 
prediction system for the movement of pyroCb smoke, and has been 
building a global dataset since 2013.

"At least 133 pyroCbs have been observed in Canada since early May, with 
153 observed worldwide," he adds – more than doubling the country's 
previous seasonal maximum.

However, none of the many pyroCb events observed in 2023 rival the 
stratospheric impact of the 2019-20 Australia super outbreak, or the 
2017 Pacific Northwest event in Canada, says Peterson. Both produced 
stratospheric smoke plumes that "rival or exceed the impact from the 
majority of volcanic eruptions over the past decade", he says – 
persisting at high altitudes for many months.

*Stratosphere vs troposphere*
Models clearly show that the conditions for pyroCb wildfires are set to 
increase, meaning there is the potential for the effects of such 
aerosols to become significant enough "to change dynamics in the 
stratosphere and have consequences," Stocker says.

One particular concern is that the recovery of the ozone layer, which 
blocks harmful ultraviolet radiation, could be delayed – and research 
has already demonstrated some negative impacts...
- -
However, none of the many pyroCb events observed in 2023 rival the 
stratospheric impact of the 2019-20 Australia super outbreak, or the 
2017 Pacific Northwest event in Canada, says Peterson. Both produced 
stratospheric smoke plumes that "rival or exceed the impact from the 
majority of volcanic eruptions over the past decade", he says – 
persisting at high altitudes for many months...
- -
"The big thing we've already learnt is that wildfires can be important 
for several effects in the stratosphere," says Stocker. "It's a big 
experiment. And in my opinion, I don't want to try out the changes. 
Researchers see there can already be harmful effects."
- -
*Albedo and evaporation**
*Wildfires can also influence climate back on the ground.

One mechanism involves changes to a landscapes' albedo, or ability to 
reflect light. In the aftermath of a fire, charred surfaces can reduce 
albedo, leading to an increase in surface warming. Conversely, a reduced 
forest canopy can raise albedo by exposing more reflective entities such 
as grass or snow, leading to a cooling effect.

Another process involves the evaporation of water. Thriving plants 
release water from their leaves in a process known transpiration, and 
water also evaporates directly from the soil and canopies. The 
surrounding air is cooled as a result. But when wildfires suppress this, 
warming increases.

A 2019 study which investigated the interplay of these factors found 
that the average surface temperature can warm for at least five years 
after flames are extinguished. Reduced transpiration was found to be the 
main cause of this, says Zhihua Liu, an ecology researcher at the 
University of Montana and lead author of the study.

"If there are more frequent and severe fires in the future, this land 
surface warming may contribute to climate warming," he adds. "However, 
the interactions among climate warming, vegetation dynamics, and fire 
are very complex, and yet to be fully understood."
*
**'It's a big experiment'..*
- -
With wildfires impacting the climate system in so many ways, 
understanding the different interactions and timescales is essential for 
understanding their overall impact in the long term. "We need to 
understand the net outcomes because we need to understand how fast to 
reduce our human CO2 emissions," says Stocker...

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230817-how-wildfires-push-up-temperatures-long-after-they-are-extinguished



/[ Wyoming journalism and how "DTFM" just means to "_D_o _T_he _F_-in/ 
_M_ath"/]/
*At Current Pace, U.S. Will Eliminate Fossil Fuels In 170 Years*
The New York Times reported this week that the United States is “rapidly 
shifting away from fossil fuels.” However, at the current pace, the U.S. 
will eliminate fossil fuels in 170 years.

Kevin Killough
August 17, 2023

The New York Times declared this week that a “profound shift” is taking 
place in America, which is “rapidly shifting away from fossil fuels.”

This, the newspaper says, is also happening in Europe and elsewhere.

 From such statements, a reader might think that the share of 
electricity from fossil fuels has at least halved in the past few decades.

While the article shows a lot of graphs about the growth of renewables, 
it omits any mention of how much electrical generation comes from fossil 
fuels.

According to data from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World 
Energy, the amount of electricity generation from fossil fuels fell from 
nearly 73% in 1985 to just under 60% in 2022.

This means the transition away from fossil fuels is happening at a rate 
of 0.35% per year.

While The New York Times likes to claim the country is “rapidly 
shifting” away from fossil fuels, it will take, at the current pace, 
more than 170 years to reach 0%.

Coal Is Still King

Globally, the shift is even slower.

According to the World Energy Data, the amount of world generated from 
fossil fuels was just under 65% in 1985. That fell to just under 61% in 
2022.

The amount generated from coal was nearly 38% in 1985. It’s just over 
35% today. Natural gas rose from just under 15% in 1985 to nearly 23% 
today.

In that time, wind and solar rose from about 0% in 1985 to 12% in 2022, 
and most of that increase happened since 2005. This increase has had 
little impact on the amount of electricity generated from fossil fuels, 
according to the data, raising doubts the wind and solar are 
replacements for fossil fuels.

American Coal Council CEO Emily Arthun, who lives in Gillette, told 
Cowboy State Daily that nations around the world are embracing coal, 
including South Africa, India and China.

“They’re building coal-fired power plants, and they’re using coal to 
stand up for their economies and the wellbeing of their people,” Arthun 
said.

Shortsighted

According to the Global Energy Monitor, since 2000, a total of 460,643 
megawatts of coal-fired electrical generation has been retired.

In that time, 911,000 megawatts of coal-fired capacity was announced, 
permitted or under construction. That doesn't include the 2,095,041 
megawatts of coal-fired electrical generation operating in the world today.

Almost all the coal plants being permitted or constructed are in Asia, 
especially China. There are no plants permitted, planned or being 
constructed in the U.S.

Arthun said it’s concerning that nations that are unfriendly toward the 
U.S. are ramping up their energy production, while the U.S. is shutting 
down its coal capacity.

At the same time, the U.S. is becoming more dependent on China for 
critical minerals used in electric vehicles, solar panels and wind 
turbines.

“To be preemptively closing our coal plants is very short sighted. It's 
concerning that we may not have enough energy in the coming years,” 
Arthun said.

Manufacturing Demand

The International Energy Agency released its annual coal market update 
last month, and it also called into question the alleged rapid 
transition away from fossil fuels.

The report stated that coal demand for electrical generation and steel 
production reached record highs in 2022.

Coal mining is also up, with 398 coal mines under consideration 
worldwide, representing an estimated 1.8 billion tons of coal and 1.8 
billion tons of mine capacity. China and India account for two-thirds of 
that.

State Rep. John Bear, R-Gillette, told Cowboy State Daily the data 
doesn’t surprise him.

He said an increase in energy demand in the U.S. is being driven by an 
increase in domestic manufacturing, as well as growing electrification 
of transportation with electric vehicle adoption.

“You can add some wind and solar, but it just doesn't get you there 
unless you cover practically the surface area of the continent,” Bear said.

China’s Opportunity

Increases in manufacturing will also increase the demand for primary 
energy. Electricity is only about 20% of the total energy consumed 
globally. The rest is transportation and industry.

Even when considering all energy usage, the alleged “rapid transition” 
doesn’t show in the data.

According to the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, 
primary energy consumption in the U.S. from fossil fuels peaked out at a 
little more than 23,500 terawatt hours of energy. Last year, it was just 
under 21,600 terawatt hours.

Bear agrees that China ramping up its energy production from fossil 
fuels, while the U.S. is trying to shut down as much as possible, is 
concerning.

​​”Can you blame them? We're tying our own hands behind our backs, 
creating an economic opportunity for them. They're just taking advantage 
of it and laughing all the way all the way to the bank,” Bear said.

Kevin Killough can be reached at Kevin at cowboystatedaily.com.
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/08/17/at-current-pace-u-s-will-eliminate-fossil-fuels-in-170-years/



/[ The news archive - looking back at video of climate science 
fundamentals in the year 2013]/
/*August 20, 2013*/
August 20, 2013: Al Jazeera America debuts, featuring a 
critically-acclaimed discussion of climate change featuring climate 
scientists Heidi Cullen and Michael Mann.

Al Jazeera America's 30 minutes of climate coverage (about 24 minutes 
not including commercial breaks) represented nearly half of what was 
seen on all network nightly news programs in 2012, and more than what 
was featured by CNN's Erin Burnett OutFront and Anderson Cooper 360 and 
Fox News' The O'Reilly Factor and Hannity combined in the past four and 
a half months:

Al Jazeera America's 30 minutes of climate coverage (about 24 minutes 
not including commercial breaks) represented nearly half of what was 
seen on all network nightly news programs in 2012, and more than what 
was featured by CNN's Erin Burnett OutFront and Anderson Cooper 360 and 
Fox News' The O'Reilly Factor and Hannity combined in the past four and 
a half months:

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/08/21/what-al-jazeera-america-didnt-say-about-climate/195510


=======================================
*Mass media is lacking, many daily summariesdeliver global warming news 
- a few are email delivered*

=========================================================
**Inside Climate News*
Newsletters
We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. Every day or 
once a week, our original stories and digest of the web’s top headlines 
deliver the full story, for free.
https://insideclimatenews.org/
---------------------------------------
**Climate Nexus* https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*
Delivered straight to your inbox every morning, Hot News summarizes the 
most important climate and energy news of the day, delivering an 
unmatched aggregation of timely, relevant reporting. It also provides 
original reporting and commentary on climate denial and pro-polluter 
activity that would otherwise remain largely unexposed.    5 weekday
=================================
*Carbon Brief Daily https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up*
Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon Brief 
sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to thousands of 
subscribers around the world. The email is a digest of the past 24 hours 
of media coverage related to climate change and energy, as well as our 
pick of the key studies published in the peer-reviewed journals.
more at https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief
==================================
*T*he Daily Climate *Subscribe https://ehsciences.activehosted.com/f/61*
Get The Daily Climate in your inbox - FREE! Top news on climate impacts, 
solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered week days. Better than coffee.
Other newsletters  at https://www.dailyclimate.org/originals/

/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/ 

/Archive of Daily Global Warming News 
https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/


/To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe 
<mailto:subscribe at theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request> 
to news digest./

Privacy and Security:*This mailing is text-only.  It does not carry 
images or attachments which may originate from remote servers.  A 
text-only message can provide greater privacy to the receiver and 
sender. This is a personal hobby production curated by Richard Pauli
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain cannot be used for commercial 
purposes. Messages have no tracking software.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote 
<mailto:contact at theclimate.vote> with subject subscribe, To Unsubscribe, 
subject: unsubscribe
Also you may subscribe/unsubscribe at 
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Pauli for 
http://TheClimate.Vote <http://TheClimate.Vote/> delivering succinct 
information for citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List 
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously restricted to 
this mailing list.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/attachments/20230820/66efd5ef/attachment.htm>