[✔️] Dec 6, 2023- Global Warming Digest |5 Tipping points, Tipping summary, Quinault Tribe, Moving up, Kevin Anderson, Propaganda, Permafrost, Big berg, 2005 Hansen

[Richard Pauli]

/*December *//*6, 2023*/

/[ Tipping points is not a place in China ]/
*Earth on verge of five catastrophic climate tipping points, scientists 
warn*
Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement 
and financial ruin as planet warms
Ajit Niranjan
European environment correspondent
Tue 5 Dec 2023
Many of the gravest threats to humanity are drawing closer, as carbon 
pollution heats the planet to ever more dangerous levels, scientists 
have warned.

Five important natural thresholds already risk being crossed, according 
to the Global Tipping Points report, and three more may be reached in 
the 2030s if the world heats 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial temperatures.

Triggering these planetary shifts will not cause temperatures to spiral 
out of control in the coming centuries but will unleash dangerous and 
sweeping damage to people and nature that cannot be undone.

“Tipping points in the Earth system pose threats of a magnitude never 
faced by humanity,” said Tim Lenton, from the University of Exeter’s 
Global Systems Institute. “They can trigger devastating domino effects, 
including the loss of whole ecosystems and capacity to grow staple 
crops, with societal impacts including mass displacement, political 
instability and financial collapse.”

The tipping points at risk include the collapse of big ice sheets in 
Greenland and the West Antarctic, the widespread thawing of permafrost, 
the death of coral reefs in warm waters, and the collapse of atmospheric 
circulation in the North Atlantic.

Unlike other changes to the climate such as hotter heatwaves and heavier 
rainfall, these systems do not slowly shift in line with greenhouse gas 
emissions but can instead flip from one state to an entirely different 
one. When a climatic system tips – sometimes with a sudden shock – it 
may permanently alter the way the planet works.

Scientists warn that there are large uncertainties around when such 
systems will shift but the report found that three more may soon join 
the list. These include mangroves and seagrass meadows, which are 
expected to die off in some regions if the temperatures rise between 
1.5C and 2C, and boreal forests, which may tip as early as 1.4C of 
heating or as late as 5C.

The warning comes as world leaders meet for the Cop28 climate summit in 
Dubai. On Tuesday, Climate Action Tracker estimated that their emissions 
targets for 2030 put the planet on track to heat 2.5C by the end of the 
century, despite promises from countries at a previous summit to try to 
limit it to 1.5C.
The tipping point report, produced by an international team of 200 
researchers and funded by Bezos Earth Fund, is the latest in a series of 
warnings about the most extreme effects of climate change.

Scientists have warned that some of the shifts can create feedback loops 
that heat the planet further or alter weather patterns in a way that 
triggers other tipping points.

The researchers said the systems were so tightly linked they could not 
rule out “tipping cascades”. If the Greenland ice sheet disintegrates, 
for instance, it could lead to an abrupt shift in the Atlantic 
Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important current that delivers 
most of the heat to the gulf stream. That, in turn, can intensify the El 
Niño southern oscillation, one of the most powerful weather patterns on 
the planet.

The co-author Sina Loriani, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate 
Impact Research, said tipping-point risks could be disastrous and should 
be taken very seriously, despite the remaining uncertainties.
“Crossing these thresholds may trigger fundamental and sometimes abrupt 
changes that could irreversibly determine the fate of essential parts of 
our Earth system for the coming hundreds or thousands of years,” he said.

In its latest review of climate change science, the Intergovernmental 
Panel on Climate Change found that tipping thresholds were unclear but 
the dangers would grow more likely as the planet heats up.

It said: “Risks associated with large-scale singular events or tipping 
points, such as ice-sheet instability or ecosystem loss from tropical 
forests, transition to high risk between 1.5C to 2.5C and to very high 
risk between 2.5C to 4C.”

The tipping point report also looked at what it called “positive tipping 
points”, such as the plummeting price of renewable energy and the growth 
in sales of electric vehicles. It found that such shifts do not happen 
by themselves but need to be enabled by stimulating innovation, shaping 
markets, regulating business, and educating and mobilising the public.

A study from the report’s co-author Manjana Milkoreit last year warned 
against overusing the label of social tipping points by promising 
solutions that did not exist at scale or could not be controlled.

“While scholarship benefits from hope, we need to exercise caution when 
offering social tipping points as potential solutions to the temporal 
squeeze of climate change,” she wrote.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn

- -

/[ More about tipping points -- text ]/
*Global Tipping Points *
*Summary Report*
Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest 
threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our 
planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.
Introduction
This report is for all those concerned with tackling escalating Earth 
system change and mobilising transformative social change to alter that 
trajectory, achieve sustainability and promote social justice.

    *Section 1 *Earth system tipping points
    Considers Earth system tipping points. These are reviewed and
    assessed across the three major domains of the cryosphere, biosphere
    and circulation of the oceans and atmosphere.

    *Section 2 *Tipping point impacts
    Considers tipping point impacts. First we look at the human impacts
    of Earth system tipping points, then the potential couplings to
    negative tipping points in human systems.

    *Section 3 *Governance of Earth system tipping points
    Considers how to govern Earth system tipping points and their
    associated risks. We look at governance of mitigation, prevention
    and stabilisation then we focus on governance of impacts, including
    adaptation, vulnerability and loss and damage.

    *Section 4 *Positive tipping points in technology, economy & society

Focuses on positive tipping points in technology, the economy and 
society. It provides a framework for understanding and acting on 
positive tipping points. We highlight illustrative case studies across 
energy, food and transport and mobility systems, with a focus on 
demand-side solutions.
Summary Report https://global-tipping-points.org/download/4607/
https://global-tipping-points.org/



/[ CNBC video in Dubai, "150 billion - 45% of financing by 2025 - 10 
billion/year"]/
*Banks in UAE are getting serious about climate change, Mashreq Bank CEO 
says*
Ahmed Abdelaal, Mashreq Bank CEO, says the Middle East "still at the 
very nascent stage" of the climate "transformation."
MON, DEC 4 2023
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/12/04/banks-in-uae-getting-serious-about-climate-change-mashreq-bank-ceo.html



/[ All oceans are rising - now about 3mm per year - //rising 
exponentially about 3 meters this century  -  ice melt will continue to 
raise ocean waters to a max of over 80 meters.   ]/
*Quinault Tribe builds new village site away from rising seas*
John Ryan
December 04, 2023
With winter storms and high tides approaching, the Quinault Indian 
Nation continues efforts to relocate its seaside villages.

In recent years, the village of Taholah, the largest on the Quinault 
Indian Reservation on Washington’s Olympic coast, has had to evacuate 
when waves overtopped the seawall separating it from the Pacific Ocean.

For about a decade, the tribe has been working to move the village of 
660 people out of reach of rising seas and tsunamis.

Construction crews installed streets, sidewalks, and underground 
utilities in the fall of 2023 for a neighborhood of 59 homes about 1 
mile inland.

“We went from forest land about three years ago, and now we have a 
finished product full of street signs and sidewalks and drainages, so 
it's a really cool sight to see,” said Ryan Hendricks, a Quinault Tribal 
Council member and former construction manager.

Hendricks lives in the lower portion of Taholah Village, where homes and 
businesses sit about 6 feet above the average daily high tide. An 
expanding ocean, fueled by global warming, is gradually pushing sea 
levels higher, while king tides that come every November, December, and 
January can quickly push seas much higher for short stretches. So can 
winter storms.
Satellite images show the top of the seawall that protects Taholah from 
the surf is now littered with logs tossed there by the ocean.

“A lot of these logs are getting shoved over the seawall by the waves 
and the high tides, and they're landing in tribal members backyards,” 
Hendricks said. “And it's a little bit scary.”

In January 2022, much of the lower village had to evacuate from flooding 
during a stormy high tide. The tribe put elders up at the Quinault Beach 
Resort and Casino in Ocean Shores, about 20 miles south of Taholah.

Taholah is gradually becoming one of the first communities in the 
country to retreat as a warming climate raises sea levels. But it’s a 
slow process.

A community building for daycare and senior programs opened in 2022 at 
the upland site.
Hendricks said the tribe is seeking more federal grants to be able to 
start building homes.

In 2022, the Biden Administration provided $25 million each to the 
Quinault Nation and the Alaskan villages of Newtok and Napakiak to help 
relocate three tribal villages away from rising seas.

The Quinault Nation was turned down for three federal grants in 2023 and 
is applying for two more grants this year.

Hendricks said he hopes the first Quinault elders can move to the upland 
Taholah village within the next two years.
The Quinault Nation is also planning to relocate its smaller village of 
Queets, though that work is mostly in the planning stages.

To the north, the Quileute Tribe relocated its tribal school out of the 
tsunami zone in 2022 and has plans to move other critical facilities in 
the surfside town of La Push to higher ground. Quileute representatives 
did not respond to requests for more information on those plans.

“There are lots of examples of places that no longer exist on the map, 
so this has happened before,” said Washington Sea Grant oceanographer 
Ian Miller. “There are not too many instances of it happening in this 
kind of planned, managed, coordinated way.”

Few communities have confronted sea-level rise as head-on as Taholah 
has. That might change soon.

In July, the Washington State Legislature required counties and cities 
of at least 6,000 residents to incorporate climate change impacts in 
their comprehensive plans. The cities must address climate-amplified 
hazards such as flooding, fire, and droughts as well as the need to 
reduce planet-heating emissions.
Local governments’ shoreline regulations are now required to address 
“the impact of sea level rise and increased storm severity.”
https://www.kuow.org/stories/quinault-tribe-builds-new-village-site-away-from-rising-seas

- -

/[ see a video from earlier this year ]/
*What it costs to save a town from sea-level rise*
The Quinault Indian Nation, located about 150 miles west of Seattle on 
the Washington coast, has experienced severe flooding due to sea-level 
rise over the past few years. And it’s only poised to get worse. So with 
the assistance of state and federal funding, the tribe is preparing to 
move a mile up the hill, where a new village is being built. But 
relocation is a long and expensive process, and questions remain about 
how tribal members will afford the move.
TUE, AUG 22 2023
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/08/22/what-it-takes-to-relocate-a-town-facing-sea-level-rise.html



/[ Media opinion with Kevin Anderson video "sycophants, we're giving 
them too much air"]/
*With Professor Kevin Anderson Discussing Remarks By Bill gates*
Nick Breeze ClimateGenn
Dec 5, 2023  ClimateGenn #podcast  produced by Nick Breeze
Bill Gates has been interviewed on different occasions in the last 
couple of months making bold statements about planting trees and, more 
recently at COP28, how a temperature rise of 3ºC is not too bad. This 
segment with climate scientist, Professor Kevin Anderson from the 
Tyndall Centre at University of Manchester and also at the University of 
Uppsala, reflects on Bill Gates and people like him, asking why they get 
so much media coverage considering the accuracy of what they say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkthXebL6Uk



/[ audio play of discussion  ]/
*Promise vs. propaganda: Can tech fix the climate crisis?*
DECEMBER 4TH, 2023 | 17:15 | E711
EPISODE SUMMARY
The big U.N. Climate Change Conference -- COP28 -- is underway in Dubai 
and the role of emerging technologies in the fight against global 
warming is likely to be a recurring theme. On POLITICO Tech, host Steven 
Overly asks Marcene Mitchell of the World Wildlife Fund to expound on 
the promise and the hype behind these technologies.
https://politico-tech.simplecast.com/episodes/promise-vs-propaganda-can-tech-fix-the-climate-crisis



/[ understanding permafrost melt - video ]/
*What Everyone Should Know About Permafrost Thaw*
International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
Dec 3, 2023
Hear directly from Arctic scientists about why permafrost matters and 
its relevance to climate negotiations. You’ll learn about what 
permafrost is and where is it found; carbon emissions from permafrost 
thaw; tipping points; the state of monitoring, measuring, and accounting 
for these emissions; land degradation and displacement of Arctic 
communities; loss and damage in the circumarctic and the impacts on 
Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities; and the need for co-produced 
resilience strategies.
Contacts: Woodwell Climate Research Center, Bolin Centre for Climate 
Research, Alfred Wegener Institute
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A2uNZQKrFA



/[ Video - this big berg has been free floating for a few years, and so 
would not increase sea level rise as it melts  ]/
*World's largest iceberg on the move from Antarctica*
Global News
Dec 5, 2023  #GlobalNews #antarctica
A23a, the world's largest iceberg, is on the move for the first time in 
35 years, drifting beyond Antarctica.

The discovery was made by scientists who analyzed recent satellite 
images and are now closely watching its trajectory.

This massive chunk of ice weighs one trillion tons and is three times 
the size of New York City.

Eric Sorensen explains why it's drifting, where it's heading, and the 
potential problems it could cause.

For more info, please go to 
https://globalnews.ca/news/10040706/calgary-researcher-sea-ice-antarctica-lowest/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fH6VxXQd1L0



/[The news archive -  James Hansen PDF explaining 50 different charts 
and graphics ]/
/*December 6, 2005 */
December 6, 2005: At the American Geophysical Union meeting in 
California, James Hansen delivers a speech entitled: "Is There Still 
Time to Avoid ‘Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with Global 
Climate?"...

    *Chart 50. Summary: Is There Still Time? Yes, but:*
    So, in summary, is there still time to avoid dangerous human-made
    interference with
    climate? I believe the evidence shows with reasonable clarity that
    the level of additional global
    warming that would put us into dangerous territory is about 1°C, not
    2 or 3°C. We will need to
    refine our estimate as more data comes in, but I am quite confident
    of this assertion.
    Yes, it is technically possible to avoid the grim “business-as
    usual” climate change, to follow
    an alternative scenario in which growth of greenhouse gas emissions
    is slowed in the first quarter
    of this century, primarily via concerted improvements in energy
    efficiency and a parallel
    reduction of non-CO2 climate forcings, and then reduced via advanced
    energy technologies that
    yield a cleaner atmosphere as well as a stable climate. The required
    actions make practical sense
    and have other benefits, but they will not happen without strong
    policy leadership and
    international cooperation. Action must be prompt, otherwise
    CO2-producing infrastructure that
    may be built within a decade will make it impractical to keep
    further global warming under 1°C
    - -
    I said that I would return to the question of why, if an alternative
    scenario is practical, has
    multiple benefits, and makes good common sense, why are we not doing it?
    There is little merit in casting blame for inaction, unless it helps
    point toward a solution. It
    seems to me that special interests have been a roadblock wielding
    undue influence over
    policymakers. The special interests seek to maintain short-term
    profits with little regard to either
    the long-term impact on the planet that will be inherited by our
    children and grandchildren or the
    long-term economic well-being of our country.
    The public, if well-informed, has the ability to override the
    influence of special interests, and
    the public has shown that they feel a stewardship toward the Earth
    and all of its inhabitants.
    Scientists can play a useful role if they help communicate the
    climate change story to the public
    in a credible, understandable fashion.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2005/Keeling_20051206.pdf






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