[✔️] Dec 11, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Think video, IEA World Energy Report summary, Sea level risk, 1985 missed opportunity

[Richard Pauli]

/*December 11*//*, 2023*/

/[ "A moment of truth is coming..." -- world leaders and IEA  -- video 
summary]/
*If BIG OIL fails, do we all go down with it??*
Just Have a Think
Dec 10, 2023
The International Energy Agency just released a new paper analysing how 
oil and gas will dwindle in the next three decades to a small fraction 
of their current size, basically making non-combustible products. But 
that means many fossil fuel producers will fall by the wayside. If they 
do, will they take us down with them?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zg_nr0IYirU

- -

/[  the /Executive Summar/y of the IEA World Energy Outlook Special 
Report - PDF file ]/
*The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions*
-
*A moment of truth is coming for the oil and gas industry*
*Structural changes in the energy sector are now moving fast enough to 
deliver a peak in oil*
*and gas demand by the end of this decade under today’s policy 
settings.* After the peak,
demand is not currently set to decline quickly enough to align with the 
Paris Agreement and
the 1.5 °C goal. But if governments deliver in full on their national 
energy and climate
pledges, then oil and gas demand would be 45% below today's level by 
2050 and the
temperature rise could be limited to 1.7 °C. If governments successfully 
pursue a 1.5 °C
trajectory, and emissions from the global energy sector reach net zero 
by mid-century, oil
and gas use would fall by 75% to 2050.

*This new IEA report explores what oil and gas companies can do to 
accelerate net zero*
*transitions and what this might mean for an industry which currently 
provides more than*
*half of global energy supply and employs nearly 12 million workers 
worldwide.* Since 2018,
the annual revenues generated by the oil and gas industry have averaged 
close to USD 3.5
trillion. Around half of this went to governments, while 40% went back 
into investment and
10% was returned to shareholders or used to pay down debt. The 
implications of net zero
transitions are far from uniform: the industry encompasses a wide range 
of players, from
small, specialised operators to huge national oil companies (NOCs). 
While attention often
focuses on the role of the majors, which are seven large, international 
players, they hold less
than 13% of global oil and gas production and reserves. NOCs account for 
more than half of
global production and close to 60% of the world’s oil and gas reserves.

*The industry’s engagement with clean energy transitions will be a key 
topic at COP28, but*
*this report provides a reference for a debate that will continue well 
beyond the UN climate
summit in Dubai.*

*Most oil and gas companies are watching energy transitions from the 
sidelines*

*Oil and gas producers account for only 1% of total clean energy 
investment globally.* More
than 60% of this comes from just four companies, out of thousands of 
producers of oil and
gas around the world today. For the moment the oil and gas industry as a 
whole is a marginal
force in the world’s transition to a clean energy system.

*The first-order task is to slash emissions from company operations*
*While there is no single blueprint for change, there is one element 
that can and should be
in all company transition strategies: reducing emissions from the 
industry’s own
operations.* As things stand, less than half of current global oil and 
gas output is produced by
companies that have targets to reduce these emissions. A far broader 
coalition – with much
more ambitious targets – is needed to achieve meaningful reductions 
across the oil and gas
industry. The production, transport and processing of oil and gas 
results in just under 15% of
global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. This is a huge amount, 
equivalent to all
energy-related greenhouse gas emissions from the United States.

*To align with a 1.5 °C scenario, these emissions need to be cut by more 
than 60% by 2030*
*from today’s levels and the emissions intensity of global oil and gas 
operations must near*
*zero by the early 2040s. *These are appropriate benchmarks for 
industry-wide action on
emissions, regardless of the future scenario. The emissions intensity of 
the worst performers
is currently five- to ten-times higher than the best. Methane accounts 
for half of the total
emissions from oil and gas operations. Tackling methane leaks is a top 
priority and can be
done very cost-effectively – but it is not the only priority.

*Transitions will hurt the bottom line for companies focused on oil and gas*
*The volatility of fossil fuel prices means that revenues could 
fluctuate from year to year –
but the bottom line is that oil and gas becomes a less profitable and a 
riskier business as
net zero transitions accelerate.* Prices and output are generally lower 
and the risk of
stranded assets is higher, especially in the midstream sector that 
includes refineries and
facilities for liquefied natural gas. If expectations are that demand 
and prices follow a
scenario based on today’s policy settings, that would value today’s 
private oil and gas
companies at around USD 6 trillion. If all national energy and climate 
goals are reached, this
value is lower by 25%, and by 60% if the world gets on track to limit 
global warming to 1.5 °C.
*
**Oil and gas projects currently produce slightly higher returns on 
investment, but those*
*returns are less stable. *We estimate that the return on capital 
employed in the oil and gas
industry averaged around 6-9% between 2010 and 2022, whereas it was 6% 
for clean energy
projects. Oil and gas returns varied greatly over time compared with 
more consistent returns
for clean energy projects.
*
Oil and gas investment is needed in all scenarios, but the demand trajectory
in a 1.5 °C world leaves no room for new fields*
*Continued investment in oil and gas supply is needed in all scenarios, 
but the
USD 800 billion it currently invests each year is double what is 
required in 2030 to meet
declining demand in a 1.5 °C scenario. *Investment in existing and some 
new fields is
necessary in a world that achieves national energy and climate pledges, 
although there is no
need in aggregate for new exploration. In a scenario that hits global 
net zero emissions by
2050, declines in demand are sufficiently steep that no new long 
lead-time conventional oil
and gas projects are required. Some existing production would even need 
to be shut in. In
2040, more than 7 million barrels per day of oil production is pushed 
out of operation before
the end of its technical lifetime in a 1.5 °C scenario.

*In net zero transitions, new project developments face major commercial 
risks and could
**also lock in emissions that push the world over the 1.5 °C threshold. 
*Producers need to
explain how any new resource developments are viable within a global 
pathway to net zero
emissions by 2050 and be transparent about how they plan to avoid 
pushing this goal out of
reach.

*Not all producers can be the last ones standing *

*Many producers say they will be the ones to keep producing throughout 
transitions and beyond.* They cannot all be right. Oil and gas 
production is vastly reduced in net zero transitions but does not 
disappear. Even in a 1.5 °C scenario, some 24 million barrels per day of 
oil is produced in 2050 (three-quarters is used in sectors where the oil 
is not combusted, notably in petrochemicals), as well as some 920 
billion cubic metres of natural gas, roughly half of which is used for 
hydrogen production.

*The distribution of future supply among producers will depend on the 
weight assigned to lowering costs, ensuring diversity of supply, 
reducing emissions, and fostering economic development.* Market forces 
naturally favour the lowest-cost production, but that leads to a high 
concentration in supply among today’s major resource holders, notably in 
the Middle East. Prioritising the least emissions-intensive sources 
drives progress towards climate goals, but this often favours low-cost 
producers, so supply still becomes more concentrated. It is much better 
for transitions if all producers take targeted action to reduce their 
emissions. If production from low-income producers is favoured, these 
projects may not ultimately be very profitable in a well-supplied 
market. And if countries prefer domestically produced oil and gas as a 
way to buttress energy security, they reduce reliance on others but risk 
finding themselves with relatively high-cost projects in a low-price world.

*The oil and gas industry is well placed to scale up some crucial 
technologies for net zero transitions…
**Some 30% of the energy consumed in a net zero energy system in 2050 
comes from low emissions fuels and technologies that could benefit from 
the skills and resources of the oil and gas industry. *These include 
hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels; carbon capture, utilisation and 
storage (CCUS); offshore wind; liquid biofuels; biomethane; and 
geothermal energy. Oil and gas companies are already partners in a large 
share of planned hydrogen projects that use CCUS and electrolysis. The 
oil and gas industry is involved in 90% of CCUS capacity in operation 
around the world. CCUS and direct air capture are important technologies 
for achieving net zero emissions, especially to tackle or offset 
emissions in hardto-abate sectors. For the moment, only around 2% of 
offshore wind capacity in operation was developed by oil and gas 
companies. Plans are expanding, however, and the technology frontier for 
offshore wind – including floating turbines in deeper waters – moves 
this sector closer to areas of oil and gas company strength. In 
addition, industry skills and infrastructure, including existing retail 
networks and refineries, give the industry advantages in areas like 
electric vehicle charging and plastic recycling. …but this requires a 
step-change in the industry’s allocation of investment Companies that 
have announced a target to diversify their activities into clean energy 
account for just under one-fifth of current oil and gas production. The 
oil and gas industry invested around USD 20 billion in clean energy in 
2022, some 2.5% of its total capital spending. In this report, we offer 
a new framework for assessing the strategies of oil and gas companies 
and the extent to which they are making a meaningful contribution to 
transitions.

*For producers that choose to diversify and are looking to align with 
the aims of the Paris
**Agreement, our bottom-up analysis of cash flows in a 1.5 °C scenario 
suggests that a*
*reasonable ambition is for 50% of capital expenditures to go towards 
clean energy projects*
*by 2030, on top of the investment needed to reduce scope 1 and 2 
emissions.*
Not all oil and gas companies have to diversify into clean energy, but 
the alternative is to
wind down traditional operations over time. Some companies may take the 
view that their
specialisation is in oil and natural gas and so decide that – rather 
than risking money on
unfamiliar business areas – others are better placed to allocate this 
capital. But aligning their
strategies with net zero transitions would then require them to scale 
back oil and gas
activities while investing in scope 1 and 2 emissions reductions.
*
**Two pitfalls for the discussion about the future of oil and gas*
*A productive debate about the oil and gas industry in transitions needs 
to avoid two*
*common misconceptions. *The first is that transitions can only be led 
by changes in demand.
“When the energy world changes, so will we” is not an adequate response 
to the immense
challenges at hand. An imbalanced focus on reducing supply is equally 
unproductive, as it
comes with a heightened risk of price spikes and market volatility. In 
practice, no one
committed to change should wait for someone else to move first. 
Successful, orderly
transitions are collaborative ones, in which suppliers work with 
consumers and governments
to expand new markets for low-emissions products and services.

*The second is excessive expectations and reliance on CCUS*. Carbon 
capture, utilisation and
storage is an essential technology for achieving net zero emissions in 
certain sectors and
circumstances, but it is not a way to retain the status quo. If oil and 
natural gas consumption
were to evolve as projected under today’s policy settings, this would 
require an
inconceivable 32 billion tonnes of carbon captured for utilisation or 
storage by 2050,
including 23 billion tonnes via direct air capture to limit the 
temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The
necessary carbon capture technologies would require 26 000 terawatt 
hours of electricity
generation to operate in 2050, which is more than global electricity 
demand in 2022. And it
would require over USD 3.5 trillion in annual investments all the way 
from today through to
mid-century, which is an amount equal to the entire industry’s annual 
average revenue in
recent years.

*Producer economies face major uncertainties, but their energy advantages
are not lost in transition*
Economies that are heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues face some 
stark choices and
pressures in energy transitions. These choices are not new, but the 
prospect of falling oil
and gas demand adds a timeline and a deadline to the process of economic 
diversification.
Transitions create powerful incentives to accelerate the pace of change 
while also draining a
source of revenue that could finance it. Compared with the annual 
average between 2010
and 2022, per capita net income from oil and natural gas among producer 
economies is 60%
lower in 2030 in a 1.5 °C scenario. New producers entering the market 
face additional
challenges, as they may overestimate the bounty that might lie ahead and 
underestimate
the hazards. Many producers are also heavily exposed to risks from a 
changing climate, which
stand to further disrupt the security of energy supply.

*The challenges are formidable, but there are workable net zero energy 
strategies available*
*to producer economies and national oil companies*. Today’s producer 
economies retain
energy advantages even as the world moves away from fossil fuels. In 
most cases, today’s
major producers of low-cost hydrocarbons also have expertise and ample, 
under-utilised
renewable energy resources that could anchor positions in clean energy 
value chains and
low-emissions industries. Reducing emissions from traditional supplies, 
including end-use
emissions; putting domestic energy systems on a cleaner footing by 
phasing out inefficient
subsidies and boosting clean energy deployment; and developing 
low-emissions products
and services offer a way forward.

*Will the oil and gas industry be part of the solution?*
*Our scenarios plot out how the transition could be achieved, but the 
baseline expectation*
*should be for a volatile and bumpy ride. *Declining markets are 
difficult to plan for, and the
potential for disruption also comes from geopolitical tensions and 
increased incidences of
extreme weather. Governments need to be vigilant for risks to the 
affordability and security
of supply. The implications of any physical disruptions to supply are 
felt most strongly in
emerging and developing economies in Asia, whose share of global crude 
oil imports rises
from 40% today to 60% in 2050 in a scenario that meets national energy 
and climate goals.
On the supply side, even as overall demand falls back, the Middle East 
plays an outsize role
in global markets as a low-cost producer of both oil and gas.

*Dialogue across all parts of oil and gas value chains remains essential 
to deliver an orderly*
*shift away from fossil fuels – and to ensure that today’s producers 
have a meaningful stake*
*in the clean energy economy. *The industry must change, but this 
dialogue also needs clear
signals from consumers on the direction and speed of travel to guide 
investment decisions,
to assign value to oil and gas with lower emissions intensities, to 
develop markets for lowemissions fuels, and to collaborate on technology 
innovation. Energy transitions can happen
without the engagement of the oil and gas industry, but the j
https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a6e9b926-2349-4bee-856e-4997aab5399f/ 
TheOilandGasIndustryinNetZeroTransitions.pdf



/[  CBS reports - rise risk next 20 years  ]/
*More than 70 million people face increased threats from sea level rise 
worldwide*
BY DAVID SCHECHTER, CHANCE HORNER, HALEY RUSH, DILCIA MERCEDES, LAURA GELLER
UPDATED: DECEMBER 8, 2023 / CBS NEWS
In coastal communities across the U.S., new data shows land that's home 
to more than 260,000 Americans is at risk of increased flooding over the 
next 20 years. The number of people at risk worldwide is projected to 
grow five-fold by the end of the century if nations continue their 
current course of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the 
Human Climate Horizons, a collaboration between the United Nations 
Development Programme and the Climate Impact Lab.

The new information shows increased coastal flooding this century will 
put over 70 million people around the globe in the path of expanding 
floodplains.

CBS News traveled to the world's northernmost and fastest-warming 
community of Svalbard, Norway, because what scientists are learning 
there can help Americans understand the changes happening in the United 
States. As the Arctic warms, it adds to rising sea levels along our 
coasts and instability in the atmosphere that contributes to our extreme 
weather events.

"The effects of rising sea levels will put at risk decades of human 
development progress in densely populated coastal zones, which are home 
to one in seven people in the world," said Pedro Conceição, director of 
UNDP's Human Development Report Office.

*Increased flooding risk*
This chart shows the percentage of population in each city who live in 
areas susceptible to increased flooding due to climate change over the 
next 20 years.

    New Orleans 1.38%
    Virginia Beach 1.31%
    Miami 0.41%
    Queens, NY 0.36%
    Tampa  0.31%

The data finds the most extreme risks of lost land and critical 
infrastructure worldwide will be in Latin America, the Caribbean, the 
Pacific and small island states — including hundreds of highly populated 
cities like Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and Sydney, Australia.

"These projections are not foregone conclusions; instead, they can be a 
catalyst for action," said Hannah Hess, associate director at the 
Climate Impact Lab, a collaborative group of scientists and researchers 
who measures the real-world costs of climate change. "Swift and 
sustained action to reduce emissions will affect how quickly and how 
much coastal communities are impacted."

Carbon dioxide emissions from cars and factories are the primary driver 
of climate change. They warm the planet, melt glaciers and ice sheets 
and raise sea levels.

"What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic"
42% of sea level rise comes from warming ocean water, which expands as 
the temperature increases; 21% comes from melting glaciers around the 
world; and 23% comes from the melting ice sheets in Greenland and 
Antarctica, according to WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group.

As a result, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's U.S. 
sea level rise projections anticipate 10-14 inches of rise on the East 
Coast, 14-18 inches on the Gulf Coast and 4-8 inches on the West Coast 
over the next 30 years.

"What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic," said Jack 
Kohler, a glaciologist with the Norwegian Polar Institute.

Kohler studies the melting glaciers of Svalbard, which is a group of 
islands near the North Pole.

"If you live in Florida, you're seeing the effect of sea level rise 
already," he said. "There's plenty of pictures of very high tides, which 
are not caused by any storms or anything, and this is because sea level 
is inexorably rising."

The new data also finds that many low-lying, coastal regions in Latin 
America, Africa and Southeast Asia may face permanent inundation, which 
the UNDP said is part of an alarming trend that could negatively impact 
economic progress in less-developed parts of the world.

According to the new data, climate change is expected to submerge a 
significant share of land in the Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Cayman 
Islands, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Turks and Caicos, Tuvalu and 
Seychelles by 2100.

"I have colleagues all over the globe who are doing similar things and 
they're all seeing the same thing," Kohler said about measuring the 
melting glaciers that are fueling sea level rise...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/increased-threats-of-sea-level-rise-worldwide/



/[The news archive -  early record of a "Could'a, Would'a, Should'a" 
moment ] /
/*December 11, 1985 */
December 11, 1985: The New York Times reports:

    "A group of senators and scientists today called for national and
    international action to avert a predicted warming of the earth's
    climate resulting from a buildup of carbon dioxide and other
    man-made gases in the atmosphere.
    "They warned at a Senate hearing that such an effect, like that of a
    greenhouse, would produce radical climate changes and a subsequent
    rise in ocean levels that could have catastrophic results in the
    next century unless steps were taken now to deal with the problem.

    "Senator Albert Gore Jr., Democrat of Tennessee, said he would
    introduce legislation to expand and focus scientific efforts on this
    greenhouse effect.

    "At a hearing of the Senate Subcommittee on Toxic Substances and
    Environmental Oversight, Mr. Gore said his bill would call for 'an
    international year of scientific study of the greenhouse effect and
    would request that the President take steps to begin this worldwide
    cooperative investigation.'"

http://www.nytimes.com/1985/12/11/us/action-is-urged-to-avert-global-climate-shift.html 



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