[✔️] Dec 23, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Italy fire, Demitarian diet, NASA analysis, Panama canal shallows, MarineTraffic live display, 2015 MSNBC heat

[Richard Pauli]

/*December *//*23, 2023*/

/[ initial report from BBC  ]/*/
/**Pictured: Massive wildfire rips through northern Italy*
Hundreds of firefighters and volunteers are tackling a blaze that has 
burnt nearly 9,000 acres of land
Our Foreign Staff
23 December 2023
Hundreds of firefighters are tackling a massive wildfire near Turin in 
northwest Italy...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/23/italy-wildfire-turin-wind-traves-susa-lanzo-valley/



/[ USA Today reported ]/
*How we know humans cause global warming: A brief history of climate 
science | Fact check*
Kate S. Petersen
USA TODAY
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/12/20/humans-cause-global-warming-fact-check/71714659007/



/[  a new word 
https://iiab.me/kiwix/wikipedia_en_all_maxi_2022-05/A/Demitarian ]
/*Go ‘demitarian’ this Christmas: UN report urges new diet to help fight 
climate change*
The report proposes halving the average European meat and dairy 
consumption and moving to a more plant-based diet to cut pollution and 
improve human health.
By Rebecca Ann Hughes
12/21/2023
*Going ‘demitarian’ is even lower emissions than veganism - and easier 
to stick to*

If you want your diet to be more planet-friendly over the festive 
period, a new report suggests ‘demitarian’ is the way to go.

In a study for the United Nations (UN), researchers found reducing meat 
and dairy consumption could have a greater impact on cutting nitrogen 
pollution than a vegan diet.

Nitrogen is vital for plant growth and is found in synthetic fertilisers 
used by farmers to boost crop production.

But when nitrogen is leaked into the environment, it becomes a 
greenhouse gas that is 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Does nitrogen cause climate change?
The new report, Appetite for Change, proposes solutions to halve the 
nitrogen pollution from agriculture and the food system in Europe.

The study was produced by a group of researchers coordinated by the UK 
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), the European Commission, 
Copenhagen Business School and the National Institute for Public Health 
and the Environment (RIVM) of The Netherlands.

Appetite for Change says inefficiencies in farms, retail and wastewater 
practices mean that the nitrogen use efficiency of the food system in 
Europe is only 18 per cent, leaving most of the remainder leaking into 
air, water and soils.

Here, it transforms into various polluting forms: ammonia and nitrogen 
oxides, which are harmful air pollutants; nitrous oxide, a potent 
greenhouse gas; and nitrate, which affects water quality.

Eating less meat and dairy could help tackle climate change
The report proposes halving the average European meat and dairy 
consumption and moving to a more plant-based diet to cut pollution and 
improve human health.

According to the researchers, the food system in Europe, especially 
livestock, accounts for 80 per cent of the continent’s nitrogen emissions.

Growing vegetables and other plant produce is typically more efficient 
than livestock agriculture, requiring less land and fertilisers.

Keto, paleo, vegan: Which diet does the most to cut your carbon footprint?
Are UPFs really that bad? Here’s what food experts say on the rise of 
ultra-processed foods
To help the shift towards more plant-based diets, the researchers 
suggest providing financial incentives for foods that have a low impact 
on the environment and adopting public sector catering contracts that 
offer these sustainable food choices.

There should be a “coherent combination of policies addressing food 
production and consumption to better support a transition towards 
sustainable systems.”...
- -
Is ‘demitarian’ better than vegan?
Although veganism is touted as one of the most planet-friendly diets, 
going demitarian could be better for tackling nitrogen pollution.

“Our analysis finds that a broad package of actions including a 
demitarian approach (halving meat and dairy consumption) scored most 
highly in looking to halve nitrogen waste by 2030,” says Professor Mark 
Sutton of UKCEH, one of the editors of Appetite for Change.

The protein consumption of the average person in Europe greatly exceeds 
the recommendations of the World Health Organization.

The report says a balanced diet with less meat and dairy would also 
improve nutrition and make people healthier, reducing demand on health 
services.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/12/21/go-demitarian-this-christmas-un-report-urges-new-diet-to-help-fight-climate-change



/[ predicting the future -  from Monga Bay ]/
*Detailed NASA analysis finds Earth and Amazon in deep climate trouble*
by Jenny Gonzales on 21 December 2023

    A NASA study analyzed the future action of six climate variables in
    all the world’s regions — air temperature, precipitation, relative
    humidity, short- and long wave solar radiation and wind speed — if
    Earth’s average temperature reaches 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit)
    above preindustrial levels, which could occur by 2040 if emissions
    keep rising at current rates.

    The authors used advanced statistical techniques to downscale
    climate models at a resolution eight times greater than most
    previous models. This allows for identification of climate
    variations on a daily basis across the world, something essential
    since climate impacts unfold gradually, rather than as upheavals.

    The study found that the Amazon will be the area with the greatest
    reduction in relative humidity, according to the paper. An analysis
    by the Brazilian space agency INPE showed that some parts of this
    rainforest biome have already reached maximum temperatures of more
    than 3°C (5.4°F) over 1960 levels.

    Regardless of warnings from science and Indigenous peoples of the
    existential threat posed by climate change, the world’s largest
    fossil fuel producers, largely with government consent, plan to
    further expand fossil fuel exploration, says a U.N. report. That’s
    despite a COP28 climate summit deal “transitioning away from fossil
    fuels.”

In view of the current nonstop rise in greenhouse gas emissions 
responsible for intensifying climate change, NASA researchers this year 
posed two key questions: When will the planet’s temperature likely reach 
an annual average of 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial 
levels? And what will the global climate look like in great detail all 
over the world at that temperature?

Disturbingly, their findings indicate that a 2°C increase could be 
reached between 2041 and 2044 (under higher and lower emission 
scenarios, respectively) in comparison with the preindustrial period 
(1850-1900). The planet is currently at 1.15°C (2.07°F) above 19th 
century levels, with most of this warming occurring since 1975.

A rise above 2°C could put Earth on track for catastrophic climate 
change impacts, according to the 2023 report by the U.N. 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...
- -
In Boará/Boarazinho, the stream turned into a trickle of muddy liquid. 
Without access to clean water since August, the residents of Nova 
Esperança do Arauir village were forced to drink from the fetid stream. 
Outbreaks of diarrhea, vomiting and stomach pain became common. The 
extreme drought in Amazonas caused its state government to declare an 
emergency in all of its 62 municipalities.

Dário Kopenawa Yanomami, vice president of the Hutukara Yanomami 
Association, gave his perspective on what is happening to the Amazon and 
the planet. “The Earth is our mother and has been suffering for a long 
time. Like a human being who feels pain, she feels when invaders, 
agribusiness, mining and oil companies cut down thousands of trees and 
dig deep into the ground, into the sea. She is asking for help and 
giving warnings so that non-Indigenous people stop tearing the skin off 
the Earth.”

Despite all the warnings from scientists and Indigenous peoples about 
the embattled state of our planet, the world’s big fossil fuel 
companies, supported by compliant national governments, plan to expand 
their production, according to a recent U.N. report. Among those 
countries is the United Arab Emirates, which just hosted COP28 in Dubai 
— talks that the petrostate planned to use to make new oil deals. With 
Azerbaijan, another petrostate, poised to host next year’s COP29, many 
analysts are pessimistic about the possibility for significant climate 
action.
https://news.mongabay.com/2023/12/detailed-nasa-analysis-finds-earth-and-amazon-in-deep-climate-trouble/



/[ drought lowers lake levels choking canal navigation ]/*/
/**Changing climate casts a shadow over the future of the Panama Canal – 
and global trade*
Jonathan Yerushalmy
Thu 21 Dec 2023
- -
To make the journey, ships – some up to 350 metres long – enter through 
a narrow waterway and rise more than 26 metres above sea level into the 
man-made Lake Gatun through a series of locks. On the other side of the 
canal, the process is reversed and the ships descend to sea level 
through another series of locks before exiting the canal on the other 
side of the continent.

The locking system relies on fresh water from Lake Gatun and another 
nearby reservoir to function. Every ship that passes through the canal 
uses 200m litres of water most of which then flows out into the sea.

The same sources also provide water for more than half of Panama’s 4.3 
million inhabitants, forcing administrators to balance the demands of 
international shipping with the needs of the locals...
- -
For decades, this has rarely been a problem. Panama is one of the 
wettest countries in the world and the canal and its surrounding lakes 
have been blessed with an abundance of water. However, in 2023 a 
rainfall deficit, exacerbated by the El Niño weather phenomenon, led to 
the water levels in Lake Gatun dropping.

The twin demands of the canal and the local population have left the 
lake facing a water deficit of 3bn litres a day.

Lake Gatun’s water level is now close to the lowest point ever recorded 
during a rainy season, forcing the Panama Canal authority who manages 
the waterway to restrict the number of vessels passing through...
- -
In normal times, the Panama Canal has capacity to handle 36 ships a day. 
But as water has grown scarcer, the canal authority has reduced that 
number to 22. By February, it will be just 18.

The impact on shipping has never been “so severe”, says Nitin Chopra, a 
former tanker captain who is now senior marine risk consultant at 
Allianz Commercial Asia.

Those who rely on the route are left with no good options; they can wait 
up to weeks at a time to be allowed through the canal, pay up to $4m to 
jump ahead in the queue – or do what many shipping companies have been 
forced to and avoid the route entirely, adding days or weeks to their 
journey.

Every one of these choices comes at a serious financial cost to traders 
and some operators have warned that due to the delay, some goods that 
are transported from China may not be available to Christmas shoppers on 
the US east coast.

With attacks on the world’s busiest trade route in the Red Sea leading 
many companies to avoid the Suez Canal altogether, restrictions at the 
Panama Canal will only pile more pressure on global supply chains – just 
as governments around the world attempt to tame inflation.

“In the long run we’re looking at a big increase in the cost of 
commodities – it will be passed on to the consumer,” says Chopra.
And the risks to traders are not just financial. As the number of 
vessels waiting at the entrances to the canal grows, shipping experts 
are warning that the danger of a serious accident occurring is growing.

“Some boats will wait for up to two weeks, anchored at sea on both sides 
of the canal and they’re running out of space,” says Chopra. “It’s 
causing problems with vessels not being able to find a safe spot for 
anchoring.”

A tanker captain who spoke to the Guardian on the condition of anonymity 
said that the anchorage at the entrances to the canal has been too 
crowded and that he had seen “a lot of near misses”.

Another captain of a tanker carrying natural gas said that as the 
traffic has increased, some ships have been forced to wait at anchor for 
up to 25 days, in conditions that leave them in close proximity to other 
vessels.

“Vessels are colliding,” says Chopra. “If we experience any extreme 
weather, there could be a lot of consequential effects.”

As bad as the situation is at the Panama Canal, experts say the 
conditions are likely to only get worse next year.

“The expectation is that March to April next year could be the lowest 
level for Lake Gatun … on record”, says Steven Paton. “Panama’s dry 
season usually begins earlier than normal during major El Niño events so 
we’ll get the double whammy. We’ll come in with a deficit and then lose 
the rainfall earlier.”
The Panama Canal authority has said this prediction matches up with its 
own forecasts and that it might consider further restrictions on vessels.

Despite falling in the middle of its rainy season, October this year was 
the driest since 1950, with 41% less rainfall than usual, according to 
the authority.

“The Canal and the country face the challenge of the upcoming dry season 
with a minimum water reserve that must guarantee supply for more than 
50% of the population and, at the same time, maintain the [canal] 
operations,” the authority said in October...
The question for the canal’s authority, global traders and the millions 
who rely on Lake Gatun’s reserves is whether the current water shortage 
is a one-off blip caused by El Niño, or a harbinger of the worst of what 
the changing climate could portend.
- -
The canal authority says it is “implementing operational and planning 
procedures, innovative technologies, and long-term investments to 
mitigate [the] impact and safeguard [the canal’s] operation”.

It says that the current situation is unprecedented and it “could not 
have predicted exactly when the water shortage would occur to the degree 
that we are experiencing now”.

But while the authority says it could not have predicted the crisis, 
others did.

For years, experts have warned that the changing climate will have 
far-reaching effects on global supply chains and the systems that govern 
them.

Structures like the Panama Canal are miracles of the modern world – 
solid totems of engineering wonder that were responsible for 
accelerating the economic boom of the 20th century, pulling up living 
standards across the globe and ushering in a revolution in technology, 
healthcare and consumer culture.

The tacit implication was that the natural world had been tamed. But as 
the seas rise and temperatures soar, those assumptions are falling like 
dominoes.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/22/changing-climate-casts-a-shadow-over-the-future-of-the-panama-canal-and-global-trade

- -

[ real time maritime shipping ]
*MarineTraffic *
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-78.8/centery:8.9/zoom:6


/[The news archive - Bill Nye and Andrea Mitchell discussion ]/
/*December 23, 2015 */
On MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," Bill Nye discusses 2015's record heat.
http://www.msnbc.com/andrea-mitchell-reports/watch/bill-nye-reveals-the-science-behind-warm-winter-weather-590808131544



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