[✔️] February 1, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | 1.5 degrees, The Deluge - CPA-NA

[Richard Pauli]

/*February 1, 2023*/

/[ it should not be a surprise  ] /
*Earth is on track to exceed 1.5C warming in the next decade, study 
using AI finds*
Researchers found that exceeding the 2C increase has a 50% chance of 
happening by mid-century
Gabrielle Canon
30 Jan 2023

The world is on the brink of breaching a critical climate threshold, 
according to a new study published on Monday, signifying time is running 
exceedingly short to spare the world the most catastrophic effects of 
global heating.

Using artificial intelligence to predict warming timelines, researchers 
at Stanford University and Colorado State University found that 1.5C of 
warming over industrial levels will probably be crossed in the next 
decade. The study also shows the Earth is on track to exceed 2C 
warming,which international scientists identified as a tipping point, 
with a 50% chance the grave benchmark would be met by mid-century.

“We have very clear evidence of the impact on different ecosystems from 
the 1C of global warming that’s already happened,” said Stanford 
University climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, who co-authored the study 
with atmospheric scientist Elizabeth Barnes. “This new study, using a 
new method, adds to the evidence that we certainly will face continuing 
changes in climate that intensify the impacts we are already feeling.”

Utilizing a neural network, or a type of AI that recognizes 
relationships in vast sets of data, the scientists trained the system to 
analyze a wide array of global climate model simulations and then asked 
it to determine timelines for given temperature thresholds.

The model found a nearly 70% chance that the two-degree threshold would 
be crossed between 2044 and 2065, even if emissions rapidly decline. To 
check the AI’s prediction prowess, they also entered historical 
measurements and asked the system to evaluate current levels of heating 
already noted. Using data from 1980 to 2021, the AI passed the test, 
correctly homing in on both the 1.1C warming reached by 2022 and the 
patterns and pace observed in recent decades.

The two temperature benchmarks, outlined as crisis points by the United 
Nations Paris agreement, produce vastly different outcomes across the 
world. The landmark pact, signed by nearly 200 countries, pledged to 
keep heating well below two degrees and recognized that aiming for 1.5C 
“would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”.

Half a degree of heating may not seem like a lot, but the increased 
impacts are exponential, intensifying a broad scale of consequences for 
ecosystems around the world, and the people, plants and animals that 
depend on them. Just a fraction of a degree of warming would increase 
the number of summers the Arctic would be ice-free tenfold, according to 
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a global consortium of 
scientists founded to assess climate change science for the UN. The 
difference between 1.5C and 2C also results in twice the amount of lost 
habitat for plants and three times the amount for insects.

The change will also fuel a dangerous rise in disasters. A warmer world 
will deliver droughts and deluges and produce more firestorms and 
floods. Scorching heatwaves will become more severe and more common, 
occurring 5.6 times more often at the 2C benchmark, according to the 
IPCC, with roughly 1bn people facing a greater potential of fatal 
fusions of humidity and heat. Communities around the world will have to 
come to grips with more weather whiplash that flips furiously between 
extremes.

For many developing countries – including small island nations on the 
frontlines of the climate crisis – the difference between the two is 
existential. Some regions warm faster than others and the effects from 
global heating won’t unfold equally. The highest toll is already being 
felt by those who are more vulnerable and less affluent and the 
devastating divisions are only expected to sharpen.

Climate scientists have long been warning of the near-inevitability of 
crossing 1.5C, but by offering a new way of predicting key windows, this 
study has made an even more urgent case for curbing emissions and 
adapting to the effects that are already beginning to unfold.

“Our AI model is quite convinced that there has already been enough 
warming that 2C is likely to be exceeded if reaching net-zero emissions 
takes another half-century,” said Diffenbaugh. “Net-zero pledges are 
often framed around achieving the Paris Agreement 1.5C goal,” he added. 
“Our results suggest that those ambitious pledges might be needed to 
avoid 2C.”

The findings shouldn’t be seen as an indication that the world has 
failed to meet the moment, Diffenbaugh emphasized. Instead, he hopes the 
work serves to motivate rather than dismay. There’s still time to stave 
off an even higher escalation in the effects and prepare for the ones 
already brewing – but not much.

“Managing these risks effectively will require both greenhouse gas 
mitigation and adaptation,” he said. “We are not adapted to the global 
warming that’s already happened and we certainly are not adapted to what 
is certain to be more global warming in the future.”

And, while progress is being made on shifting toward a more sustainable 
future, there’s a long way to go. “Stabilizing the climate system will 
require reaching net zero, he said. “There are a lot of emissions 
globally – and it’s a big ship to turn around.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/30/climate-crisis-global-heating-artificial-intelligence



/[ Will our harsh reality be more powerful than fiction?  Call it 
non-fiction story telling? ]/
*‘The Deluge’ is a climate nightmare — and it’s based on reality*
Stephen Markley explains how he wrote a dystopia that feels a little too 
real.
It was the year 2028, and I was hiding with eco-terrorists in a cabin 
deep in the woods. We were trying to avoid detection by the surveillance 
state, which was tracking activists after attacks on oil and gas 
infrastructure. Birds were dropping dead from the sky, and a dust storm 
raged around us, turning the sun crimson.

I was relieved to wake up from this dream and shake my paranoia that the 
FBI was after me. That’s how immersive The Deluge is, an ambitious new 
novel by Stephen Markley. My subconscious had picked up the storyline 
around page 200, and after I got out of bed, I couldn’t remember exactly 
where the book stopped and my dream began. Was getting followed by a 
police cruiser while driving a van full of explosives part of the plot? 
What about that night walk through the forest with the conspirators?

Bridging the recent past with a climate-wrecked future, the 
hyper-realistic novel follows a sprawling cast of characters from 2013 
until the 2040s. The Deluge stars both the people trying to save the 
world and the ones wrecking it: a scientist, an advertising strategist, 
a math genius, a drug addict, politicians, activists, and right-wing 
authoritarians. Over the course of nearly 900 pages, climate disasters 
get personal, with roaring fires and ferocious floods coming for the 
characters’ loved ones. And the brutal weather brings a violent reaction 
with it. By extrapolating from present trends, Markley conjures a future 
filled with even more extreme far-right zealots, savvy fossil fuel PR 
campaigns, and laws cracking down on protesters as terrorists.

Markley’s dark debut novel, Ohio, also took on a big social subject — 
the opioid crisis — but focused on one single night in a working-class 
town. The Deluge, by contrast, spans continents and careens through 
decades’ worth of nightmarish scenes that feel like they were made for 
Hollywood. (Markley has also written storylines for the Hulu comedy Only 
Murders in the Building.) Stephen King, who read an advance copy of The 
Deluge, called it “the best novel” he read last year. That a horror 
novelist loved it tells you something.
It’s rare to find a book that captures the complexity of the climate 
crisis, from the real-life scientific projections to the social and 
political trends, especially one that’s compellingly readable. I called 
Markley to learn more about how he accomplished it. This interview has 
been condensed and edited for clarity.
*Q Let’s talk about the challenges of turning climate change into really 
good art. It often feels like a book or movie is trying too hard to 
inspire people to change their behavior, and that attempt is almost 
distracting from the story. How did you deal with that?*

A.I identified a bunch of traps with writing about any big social 
subject matter. Unfortunately, telling the reader what they should 
believe is always a pretty surefire way to make a bad piece of art. So 
even though I have, especially after all this time, very, very strong 
opinions about the climate crisis, I was never using a character as my 
mouthpiece, but rather looking at a variety of opinions and ideas and 
trying to decide, “What would the human being I’m creating actually 
think about this?”

And in doing that, you have main characters who all want to do something 
about the climate crisis, but are really annoyed with each other, or 
actively despise each other. Because, much like in the real world, 
everybody thinks they’re right about everything. It’s getting at that 
real feeling when you’re in the midst of a crisis, how human beings can 
splinter and decide, “No, I am right, this faction is correct. We have 
to do it this way” — that sort of polarizing atmosphere.
*Q. Do you think that the polarization around climate change could be 
fixed?*

A.Well, right now, no, absolutely not. There are people who are so 
ideologically committed to not doing something about this, there’s 
barely any point in trying to change their minds. Having said that, I do 
think that as we change the industries, the politics will begin to 
change. You know, I think that was one of the smartest elements of the 
Inflation Reduction Act — scatter your investments in every single 
congressional district and basically make it politically impossible to 
dislodge.

One of books that I really admired was Leah Stokes’ Short Circuiting 
Policy, and the way in which clean energy laws in different states have 
produced really different effects on Republican legislatures in those 
states. In Iowa, where wind has become an enormous political force, 
people have a different set of ideas about clean energy than in Ohio, my 
home state, where it’s just been so much more difficult. Part of the 
challenge that lies ahead is changing the industries quickly enough to 
change the politics on the ground. I do think once people’s livelihoods 
are invested in decarbonization, we will see a shift.

*Q.I’m from Indiana, so it was cool to see that so much of the book was 
set in the Midwest.*

A.Yeah, it’s obviously partly because I’m from the Midwest. To me, it 
was important to have characters who don’t believe in the climate crisis 
or don’t care about it, and to see them on the ground living lives that 
I think a lot of people can recognize.

*Q.I liked how your book portrayed the PR messaging coming from fossil 
fuel companies — one of the characters helps the oil industry create a 
giant greenwashing campaign. Where did you get that idea?*

A.It seems so cartoonishly evil, right? But people go to work every day 
in these jobs, and they decide how to deny, delay, and stall action on 
climate. You know, I’ve talked to a lot of those people. I asked them 
for interviews on background and promised not to reveal their names. I 
thought it was one of the most fascinating elements of my work on the 
book, because you sit down, or you have a phone conversation, and it’s 
just like, everybody’s a human being. Everybody’s talking about their 
kids and their job and what they do on the weekends. And I took that and 
put it into characters in the book.

You know, I find that a fascinating piece of the puzzle, because people 
like us who work on climate are filled with dread about it more or less 
all the time. It’s like, “How can we not be moving faster on this?” It 
is really mystifying. And so demystifying it was something that was 
important to me personally. But it also lent the book a very realistic 
vantage point.

*Q Speaking of realism, we’ve been seeing disasters that keep outpacing 
what climate models thought was possible, like the heatwave in the 
Pacific Northwest a couple of years ago. How did you decide what kinds 
of events were scientifically plausible?*

A.My thinking was, let’s go to the absolute outer edge of what’s 
possible, first of all, to create a good Hollywood scene, but second of 
all, because just in case one of them happens … I know that sounds nuts. 
But let’s take the Pacific Northwest heat wave. When that happened, I 
was editing the book, and suddenly I’m looking at all my temperature 
numbers — like, “Oh, this was a record temperature in London at this 
date, and this is a record temperature in D.C. at this date” — and the 
numbers in the book all looked so silly because of this insane heat that 
engulfed several provinces and a few states. It was just totally 
jaw-dropping.

I wanted to have the meteorological events in the novel be outside of 
anything we’ve experienced yet so they couldn’t be usurped. And there 
are a couple of big ones that are definitely on the outside fringes of 
what is possible. I was living in L.A., and I woke up at night, and 
everybody in the county got a text like, “Just in case this wildfire 
destroys the city, prepare to evacuate.” Well, that was terrifying. And 
that text message became a major chapter in the novel.

*Q.A few years ago, it felt like climate fiction was a pretty niche 
subject. Do you think that’s changing?*

A.One of the things that bothers me about climate fiction — I don’t want 
to disparage any author, because it’s really hard to write a novel — but 
none of it laid out the real choices we have to make or talked about the 
carbon lobby as an actual force in our society. I’m painting with a 
really broad brush — I’m sure there are stories that do this. But let’s 
look at the actual problem, and every single issue that stems from it, 
and what to do about it. And when you get into the nitty-gritty, that 
was a novel I wanted to write. So nothing allegorical, just straight to 
the eye — what is the situation we’re in and what do we do about it?

https://grist.org/culture/the-deluge-stephen-markley-interview-climate-change-realism/



/[ //CPA is the//Climate Psychology Alliance, North America - Try a 
little therapy, try to cope ]/
*How Climate Change Is Forcing Therapists to Mend Their Field*
BY MÉLISSA GODIN
1.30.2023
The Frontline talks with the Climate Psychology Alliance about the 
challenges of addressing eco-distress in our current mental health paradigm.
Typhoons were normal in climate justice activist Tori Tsui’s childhood. 
Growing up in a fishing town in Hong Kong, Tsui was no stranger to 
tropical storms that would rip through her city and community. Climate 
change consumed her thoughts from a young age.

“I remember so many sleepless nights,” said Tsui, author of an upcoming 
book on eco-anxiety titled It’s Not Just You. “It was a very visceral, 
very physical feeling that led to a lot of turbulence in my early years.”

Tsui struggled to find help. When she finally did, mental health 
professionals failed to grasp what was making her unwell. “So much of 
what I was labeled was stripped of any political understanding,” she said.

As Tsui grew older, she realized her feelings had a name: eco-distress.

Eco-distress is a term mental health professionals use to describe the 
wide range of emotions people feel about the climate crisis—from grief 
to anxiety to rage. It can be brought on after living through a 
traumatic climate disaster but can also emerge when an individual 
becomes overwhelmed by the existential threat of climate change. 
Nowadays, that threat has become undeniable. Just look at the recent 
floods in California or the warm winter in New York. How can a person 
not feel overwhelmed?

Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 
acknowledged for the first time that climate change is impacting 
people’s mental health. The IPCC validated what more than two-thirds of 
American adults had already reported in 2020. Research published earlier 
this month also found that survivors of California’s deadliest 
wildfire—the Camp Fire of 2018—were left with severe trauma that caused 
their brains to suffer cognitive deficits and altered activity—impacts 
that inhibit a person’s memory and information processing. Yet mental 
health services across the world are struggling to keep up.

This is the gap the Climate Psychology Alliance (CPA) is trying to fill. 
Founded in the U.K., the CPA provides training to therapists, 
psychiatrists, and social workers to help them identify and address the 
emotional impacts of climate change on their patients. It aims to equip 
mental health professionals with climate-aware practices so that fewer 
people’s eco-distress goes undiagnosed and unaddressed.

In fact, the CPA is trying to rethink the discipline of psychology 
entirely. Historically, the field has insisted that politics should be 
left out of the consulting room. The CPA calls on practitioners to do 
the opposite. The group asserts that social, economic, political, and 
environmental events inevitably shape our psychology. That the onslaught 
of extreme weather events and depressing climate forecasts affects how 
we feel when we get out of bed in the morning. That eco-distress is 
often a natural response to unnatural circumstances.

At its core, the alliance believes that the personal is political. And 
that healing individual eco-distress requires inviting politics into the 
consulting room.

*‘A Different Model of Thinking’*

In 2011, a dozen mental health professionals working in the U.K. 
convened in London for the first open meeting of the CPA.

At the time, early research had established that nature could provide 
psychological benefits. But the CPA members gathered to flip the 
question: how does the destruction of nature impact our mental health?

The CPA has spent the better half of the past decade trying to answer 
this question. The alliance has since grown—from 12 members to 500. It 
expanded into the U.S. in 2017 with many members starting smaller 
chapters in other countries, such as Portugal, Japan, and Denmark.

The CPA has been busy educating therapists in climate-aware practices by 
providing training and workshops on how climate change triggers 
emotions, how it intersects with other systemic issues like racism or 
sexism, as well as what coping mechanisms exist for dealing with 
eco-distress. The training highlights how feelings of powerlessness and 
loss that emerge can be particularly triggering for people with past trauma.

But as the CPA develops its eco-distress training, its members are 
struggling with the limits of mainstream psychology, which they feel is 
ill-equipped to handle the problem. The CPA is asking those in the field 
to reframe their understanding of mental health entirely.

  Historically, psychology has been hesitant to link individual wellness 
to structural societal issues. For decades, feminist scholars and 
critical race theorists have criticized this, arguing that in failing to 
acknowledge systemic issues, psychoanalysis reproduces many of the 
inequities within our society.

  Studies have found that marginalized people often get diagnosed at 
higher rates with mental health issues, like schizophrenia or PTSD. 
Scholars argue this is because marginalized peoples’ struggles with 
systemic issues get pathologized: patients are told they are the ones 
who are sick, not the system. This form of therapy not only fails to 
tackle the root cause of people’s distress; it also encourages patients 
to believe it is their emotional disposition that needs changing, not 
the world around them.

“We’re trying to train therapists in a different model of thinking, one 
that is much more culturally and historically informed.” BARBARA 
EASTERLIN -- CPA FOR NORTH AMERICA
This vision of mental health is precisely what the CPA wants to 
dismantle. The CPA is building on the work of feminist and critical race 
theorists by saying that culture, politics, economics, and the 
environment are embedded into the way an individual feels.

Much like issues of race or gender have been historically ignored by 
psychotherapy, so too has the environment. Since at least 1955, scholars 
have warned that neglecting the environmental dimension of people’s 
lives would be the major downfall of cognitive psychology. Today’s 
mental health professionals have inherited a field that lacks sufficient 
research and training on how the environment affects people. Luckily for 
them, the CPA now exists.

“We’re trying to train therapists in a different model of thinking,” 
said Barbara Easterlin, a steering committee member of the CPA for North 
America, “one that is much more culturally and historically informed.”

The CPA does recognize that eco-distress can become a mental health 
problem when people become stuck in grief, anxiety, or rage. “If it’s 
causing us to quit our jobs, not communicate with other people, not take 
care of our bodies, lose our housing, that’s problematic from a 
functional standpoint,” said Andrew Bryant, a Seattle-based counselor 
and therapist specialized in eco-distress who manages Climate & Mind, a 
resource hub on the topic.

But the alliance cautions against over-diagnosing and pathologizing 
eco-distress. The CPA is mindful that the climate crisis inflicts 
greater emotional consequences on marginalized people. Research has 
found that people of color in the U.S. are more likely to be concerned 
about climate change than white Americans because they are often more 
exposed and vulnerable to extreme weather events. The CPA does not want 
to reproduce the historic errors of the field by over-pathologizing 
frontline communities instead of focusing on how broken our 
environmental and political paradigms remain.

  “Eco-anxiety may just be the surface-level analysis of what is 
ultimately a fractured relationship between people and planet,” Tsui 
said. “I appreciate that CPA frames eco-distress as a natural response 
to this issue and that we need systematic changes to deal with mental 
health.”

‘A Problem Shared Is a Problem Halved’

When Tsui joined the climate movement, she not only discovered the 
concept of eco-distress—she also found ways to cope with it. She’s 
managed her feelings by participating in the youth climate movement and 
writing about eco-anxiety.

“My emotional resilience has developed over time,” she said.

  Research has found that working toward solutions alleviates anxiety. 
That’s why many CPA members encourage their patients to take climate 
action. “My personal goal is to move people into activism,” Easterlin 
said. While she is not prescriptive about what her patients should do, 
even the smallest actions, such as volunteering or using less plastic, 
can alleviate symptoms. “It’s helpful for mental health.”

But individuals can’t find solutions in a vacuum. They need community.

This is the central tension CPA faces: it is encouraging people to think 
about larger systemic issues within an individualistic psychoanalytic 
structure.

“I don’t think anyone in our organization is under the belief that the 
individual therapy model is sufficient to the issues we face,” said 
Rebecca Weston, the co-president of the CPA for North America. “We are 
limited by the mental health infrastructure we live in.”

Bryant, a therapist, agreed. “[Individual therapy] is a gateway entry 
point for people who are alone, but it’s not the destination,” he said. 
“If they can find a climate-aware therapist, they can move to the next 
step, which is connecting with community.”

“We are limited by the mental health infrastructure we live in.” REBECCA 
WESTON  --  CPA FOR NORTH AMERICA
Research has found that belonging to a group of like-minded people may 
be effective at tackling eco-distress. The CPA has already begun 
experimenting with other models. The organization has trained 200 people 
in the United Kingdom to run what they call Climate Cafes, where people 
struggling with eco-distress can participate in group therapy free of 
charge. The alliance also hosts separate circles focused on young people 
and parents who are looking to help their kids manage their distress. 
Journalists and activists may also receive free counseling through the 
alliance.

“A problem shared is a problem halved,” Tsui said.

Around the world, people are finding new ways to share these feelings. 
In 2019, Iceland held a funeral for the first glacier it lost to climate 
change. The Good Grief Network, a U.S. nonprofit that organizes online 
peer-to-peer support sessions, has been bringing people together to 
metabolize collective climate grief since 2016. The organization Climate 
Awakening organizes thousands of virtual small-group conversations about 
the emotional toll of climate change.

The CPA argues this is what we need more of—opportunities to connect, to 
mourn, to imagine alternatives, collectively.

“It’s not just about people living in isolation coming together 
occasionally for therapy,” said Judith Anderson, the chair of the CPA in 
the U.K. “It’s about people coming together, building community so that 
they together are involved in change.”

The field of psychology is quickly evolving, changing as quickly as our 
planet. Ahead lies more questions than answers. We do not yet know how 
eco-distress might look across cultures and identities. How 
environmental trauma might inscribe itself in the body. We will need to 
learn how to help a wildfire survivor who has a panic attack each time 
they smell smoke. How to comfort a child unable to sleep at night for 
fear of what their future holds.

  These challenges are as difficult as they are numerous—but perhaps the 
real challenge lies in our crisis of disconnection. A crisis that has 
kept us separate from each other and from the land that sustains us. 
Only by rebuilding these ties, might we find healing.

https://atmos.earth/mental-health-climate-change-therapy

- -

/[ The book is coming out soon ]/
*It's Not Just You*
The climate crisis is making us all unwell.
Tori Tsui  --Climate justice activist, organiser, writer, consultant & 
speaker

The climate crisis is affecting certain communities disproportionately.

And it’s Not Just the climate crisis…

​It's Not Just You is Tori Tsui's debut book exploring the intersections 
between climate change and mental health from a climate justice-oriented 
perspective.

The term ‘eco-anxiety’ has been popularised as a way to talk about the 
negative impact of the climate emergency on our wellbeing.
In It’s Not Just You, activist Tori Tsui reframes eco-anxiety as the 
urgent mental health crisis it clearly is.

Drawing on the wisdom of environmental advocates from around the globe, 
Tori looks to those on the frontlines of eco-activism to demonstrate 
that the current climate-related mental health struggle goes beyond the 
climate itself. Instead, it is a struggle that encompasses many 
injustices and is deeply entrenched in systems such as racism, sexism, 
ableism and, above all, capitalism.

Because of this, climate injustice disproportionately affects most 
marginalised communities, who are often excluded from narratives on 
mental health. Tori argues that we can only begin to tackle both the 
climate and mental health crisis by diversifying our perspectives and 
prioritising community-led practices. In essence, reminding us that It’s 
Not Just You.

Tackling this increasingly urgent crisis requires looking both inwards 
and outwards, embracing individuality over individualism and championing 
climate justice. Only then can we start to build better futures for both 
people and the planet.

https://www.toritsui.com/book https://www.toritsui.com/about

- -

/[ see and hear the author YouTube video ]/
*OVERHEATED LIVE: Climate anxiety and how to normalize talking about it*
Overheated
1,514,037 views  Jun 10, 2022  #ClimateChange #Overheated 
#OverheatedCantBeDefeated
Naza Alakija asks Tori Tsui, Dr. Mya-Rose Craig, and Clover Hogan their 
views on how to speak on and manage the rapidly growing pressure of 
climate anxiety.
Click here for full Live event. For more simple tips on how you can make 
a change to help build a healthier planet today visit Your Plan, Your 
Planet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-saCw_VruKw



/[The news archive - looking back at how tough Katie Couric was in 2008]/
/*February 1, 2008*/
February 1, 2008: CBS News anchor Katie Couric asks Democratic and 
Republican presidential candidates whether they consider climate change 
a significant threat.
*Primary Question: Global Warming*
Katie Couric
40,075 views  Feb 1, 2008
Katie Couric asked ten leading presidential contenders whether or not 
global warming is a real and immediate threat.

video
http://youtu.be/p9pHy_Uz5g0



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