[✔️] February 12, 2023- Global Warming News Digest |NOAA, Maple Syrup, methane and helicopters, Atmospheric rivers, Original Bell Telephone Hour - clip Frank Capra

Sun Feb 12 08:35:24 EST 2023

/*February 12, 2023*/

/[ better have pancakes for breakfast, dig in now - Bloomberg $ ]/
*Maple Syrup’s $1.5 Billion Industry Splinters as Winters Get Warmer*
Climate change will push syrup producers to tap trees farther north and 
put the US industry at risk.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-11/how-climate-change-impacts-maple-syrup-production?leadSource=uverify%20wall

/[ National Centers for Environmental Information ]
/*NOAA Updates its Global Surface Temperature Dataset*
New version has complete global coverage
FEBRUARY 10, 2023
Providing reliable and quality climate information allows government 
agencies, researchers, and others to make informed decisions that can 
save lives and improve quality of life. Since the late 1990s, NCEI has 
provided a suite of climate services, including the monthly Global 
Climate Report, to support this mission. One of its most highly visible 
and widely used products is NOAA’s global surface temperature dataset 
(also known as NOAAGlobalTemp), which is an authoritative dataset used 
to assess observed global climate change.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/g/files/anmtlf171/files/styles/max_1300x1300/public/NOAAGlobalTemp%20Land%20and%20Ocean%20Temp%20Departure.png?itok=wb57L8Gi

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/g/files/anmtlf171/files/styles/max_2600x2600/public/NOAAGlobalTemp%20Warmest%20Years.png?itok=VyjRB1iS
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/noaa-updates-its-global-surface-temperature-dataset

/[ beyond stupidity - into outrageous cupidity (selfishness) - from 
DeSmog ]/
*Growing Body of Research Suggests Offshore Oil’s Methane Pollution Is 
Underestimated*
Previous efforts to regulate offshore methane emissions stalled, despite 
role in helicopter crashes.
BySara SneathonFeb 7, 2023 @ 10:22 PST
- -
“I think the bottom line message in this study is there’s a lot of 
emissions in the shallow waters that are currently unmeasured,” said 
Riley Duren, the CEO of Carbon Mapper and coauthor of the nonprofit’s 
2022 study of offshore methane emissions.

New technologies are allowing for actual measurements of oil and gas 
methane emissions like never before, whether from leaks or intentional 
flaring and venting. So far, much of that attention and push for 
accountability has been focused onshore, while operators claim that 
drilling offshore has much lower emissions. But researchers are starting 
to uncover a body of evidence showing why that may not be true...
- -
* -- --   Leaking Methane, Crashing Helicopters*
In 2014, federal officials warned BSEE that vented methane gas had been 
sucked into the engines of helicopters landing on and departing from 
offshore platforms, causing the engines to fail and the helicopters to 
fall out of the sky. A review of incidents found that helicopters had 
likely plunged into the Gulf every 1.5 years between 1992 and 2014 
because of off-gas, according to a 2015 report commissioned by BSEE.

On the heels of this warning, BSEE sought regulatory input to prevent 
future helicopter crashes from methane gas and considered requiring 
methane gas detectors to give pilots a warning when gas was present on 
or near helidecks. But the agency’s efforts ultimately stalled in 2017 
after the fossil fuel industry pushed back.
- -
“What we do know is that there is a hell of a lot more methane being 
released from offshore drilling than what was publicly known before,” he 
said.

The Department of Interior, which BSEE falls under, should crack down on 
methane emissions offshore, Eaton said.

“No one really knows how bad of a problem it is and something needs to 
be done,” he said. “Getting some methane regulations on the books is 
crucial and it should be done soon.”
https://www.desmog.com/2023/02/07/gulf-mexico-offshore-oil-methane-pollution-helicopter-crashes/ 

/[ the Journal nature - reminds us of what we observe]/
*US coastal communities underestimate the danger posed by rising seas*
Local guidance in many coastal regions is inconsistent with the latest 
climate science, analysis shows.
Jude Coleman
10 February 2023
More than half of US coastal communities are underestimating the rise in 
sea levels that global warming might cause in their regions, according 
to a study. In what they call a first-of-its-kind analysis, researchers 
reviewed dozens of documents — the current assessments of sea-level rise 
for more than 50 coastal locations — and found that many of the 
predictions had gaps, including not considering worst-case scenarios. 
They reported their findings on 23 January in Earth’s Future...
- -
“It’s not often that we see studies that look at how science is being 
used within decision-making,” says Siddharth Narayan, a civil and 
coastal engineer at East Carolina University in Greenville, North 
Carolina. “This is a really interesting look at how this varies across 
the US...
- -
Climate researchers regularly model future sea-level rise, continually 
updating their estimates on the basis of the latest data and science. 
These predictions are available to regional officials through technical 
reports such as those from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change (IPCC). Sometimes, communities adapt the latest 
projections to incorporate factors unique to their regions — such as 
land subsidence, a process in which the ground gradually sinks.

Garner and her colleagues wanted to see how the latest science is making 
its way into local guidance documents. So they analysed nearly 400 
projections of sea-level rise included in the assessments from 54 
coastal locations in the United States, and compared them with regional 
estimates in the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, released in 2021 — one 
of the most comprehensive summaries of climate science so far. Sea-level 
projections from at least 56% of the communities included in the 
analysis did not reflect the upper range of the IPCC’s predicted rise by 
2100...
- -
*Risk tolerance*
Assessing the full range of projections and timescales is beneficial 
because different projects have different risk tolerances, says Peter 
Ruggiero, principal investigator and co-director of the Cascadia 
Coastline and Peoples Hazards Research Hub, a network of scientists in 
Washington, Oregon and northern California funded by the US National 
Science Foundation. Garner explains that a power station near the coast, 
for example, would have a lower risk tolerance than a project such as a 
city park, because the power station would be likely to sustain greater 
damage from additional sea-level rise. Projects with a low risk 
tolerance therefore benefit from considering less probable — but more 
damaging — scenarios.

Garner says that the 2021 IPCC report is the first of its kind to be 
widely available in a user-friendly format, and she hopes that this will 
encourage more communities to use its data for future planning. Some 
coastal regions are keeping pace with current science, she adds, and 
those areas could serve as models to help improve assessments in all 
locations.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-00384-8
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00384-8

/[ From Foreign Policy $ ]/
*Climate Change Looms Behind South America’s Heat Wave*
The dry heat has worsened deadly forest fires in Chile and caused 
expensive droughts in Argentina’s and Uruguay’s agriculture sectors...
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/10/chile-wildfires-heat-wave-climate-change-south-america-chinese-balloons/

/[ Paul Beckwith explains Atmospheric Rivers -- video 39 min ]/
*The Global Reach of Atmospheric Rivers: From the Arctic to Antarctica 
to the Equator and In-Between*
Paul Beckwith
227 views  Feb 10, 2023
The Arctic sea ice is near a record low extent and area for its winter 
regrowth, and the Antarctic sea ice is at a record low by a long shot. 
It turns out that Atmospheric Rivers - ARs, which carry vast amounts of 
heat and moisture in thin ribbons of air stretching 1000s of km, are 
reaching the two polar regions and acting like garden hoses carrying 
near boiling water to etch out the sea ice, and even the on-land glacial 
ice.

A new peer reviewed scientific paper on the Arctic was just published 
clearly showing that atmospheric rivers reaching deep into the Arctic in 
the winter (when the sea ice is reforming) are responsible for 34% of 
ice loss, meaning that when the summer melt starts to occur the ice is 
already extremely weak, thin, and fragile. In fact very little ice makes 
it from one year to the next.

The exact same phenomena of ARs was responsible for the large quantities 
of rainfall that hit California in late December 2022 and January 2023. 
It seems like only a matter of time before a massive AR series of storms 
has catastrophic effects on California food production by flooding out 
large parts of the Central Valley region as happened in 1861-1862z

In this video I chat about the global reach of these ARs. I discuss how 
Atmospheric Rivers can be affected by ENSO (El Niño- La Niña cycles) and 
abrupt climate system change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avD3TT-kRdU

/[ Excellent academic lecture Vimeo is the basis for her new book -  55 
minutes ]/
*Naomi Oreskes: The Big Myth: How American Business Taught Us to Loathe 
Government and Love the Free Market*
Keynote
6e Journées suisses d'histoire
Université de Genève, 01 juillet 2022
https://vimeo.com/727392720
- -
/[ and Amazon will carry //the rope//er, the book ]/
*The Big Myth: How American Business Taught Us to Loathe Government and 
Love the Free Market*
https://smile.amazon.com//dp/B0B55F4XBY

/[ Cough, cough, ahem.... cough, cough. Makes sense.  ]/
*Wildfire Smoke May Worsen Extreme Blazes Near Some Coasts, According to 
New Research*
Scientists identified a positive feedback of smoke spurring weather 
changes that encourage the growth of extreme wildfires on the West Coast 
and in Southeast Asia.
By Emma Foehringer Merchant
February 10, 2023
Apart from clouding skies, irritating eyes, clogging respiratory systems 
and warming the climate, smoke from huge wildfires may actually help 
fires grow in some coastal areas, according to recently released 
research. The acrid smoke billowing from a megafire can drive a feedback 
loop impacting surface winds and humidity to help a fire spread, 
scientists said.

“Wildfire is not just a passive responder or consequence of climate 
warming or extreme weather conditions,” said Xin Huang, an associate 
professor of atmospheric sciences at Nanjing University and one of the 
paper’s authors. “It’s also an active and very important participant in 
the extreme event.”

Firefighters and scientists have long understood that wildfires can 
create their own weather, with large blazes spawning stormy plumes of 
clouds that can drive strong, erratic winds that fan flames or strike 
the ground with lightning. But the new research suggests the smoke from 
large wildfires may also affect the weather and the fires they drive.

The team demonstrated “unexpectedly strong feedback between wildfire and 
weather” in extreme fires in two different coastal regions on opposite 
sides of the world from one another—the Mediterranean climate of the 
U.S. West Coast and the monsoon-influenced climate of Southeast Asia. 
The results could add another datapoint to land managers’ complex 
calculations for how to cope with wildfire.
In 2020, fires in the Cascade Mountains in Oregon created smoke so thick 
that it blocked sunlight from reaching the ground, trapping cool air 
underneath, “like a lid that prevents the smoke from going anywhere,” 
said Steven Davis, another of the report’s authors and an associate 
professor of earth system science at the University of California, Irvine.

That’s a phenomenon that scientists have observed in numerous fires, 
said Diana Bernstein, a climate scientist at the University of Southern 
Mississippi who was not involved in the research. But that has usually 
resulted in less severe fires as temperatures drop near the ground and 
wind patterns change when smoke blots out the sun. Past research focused 
on years of fires in a mountain range spanning Northern California and 
Southern Oregon suggested that when smoke creates temperature 
“inversions”—when the cap of warm air covers cooler air—it reduces winds 
and increases humidity near the ground, dampening fire severity in lower 
elevations.

But in their assessment of the extreme fire events in Oregon, 
researchers found something different: a gap in air density made dry, 
cool air below the smoke “lid” rush down the West side of the mountains, 
pushing back breezes coming in from the Pacific Ocean that may have 
otherwise carried in enough humidity to dampen the flames. The dry winds 
and low humidity that remained increased the fire’s potential to burn 
intensely and produce more smoke, researchers said.

“This feedback is driving a circulation that we previously maybe didn’t 
appreciate completely,” said John Abatzoglou, a climatologist at 
University of California, Merced, who was not involved in the paper. 
“That circulation modifies the near-surface winds, which is one of the 
key ingredients, from a fire behavior perspective.”

Scientists have drawn a clear connection between climate change and 
worsening wildfires. And researchers have already shown some ways in 
which fires can interact with the atmosphere. In addition to their 
influence on ground temperature, wildfires can reduce the height of the 
“planetary boundary layer,” the band of the atmosphere closest to earth, 
which then holds smoke closer to the ground and worsens air quality.

Davis said the researchers wanted to fill in gaps in that knowledge. He 
believes this is the first study to show a feedback between smoke 
generated by a fire and the severity of the fire itself, with smoke 
increasing the intensity of the fire, which then produces more smoke.
Still, a wildfire’s interactions with the atmosphere and the environment 
are complex, with terrain, vegetation, elevation and regional weather 
also contributing to the way a blaze develops. More research is needed 
to understand whether the smoke and fire feedback occurs in other areas.

“Let’s do more science,” said Abatzoglou. “Evaluating how this feedback 
works across a broader geography would be relevant.”

How fires interact with the weather of a specific, local area is an 
emerging area of research, according to Tim Brown, director of the 
Western Regional Climate Center at the Desert Research Institute, an 
environmental research center in Nevada. The goal is to be able to model 
fire behavior to predict how a fire could act and where smoke will travel.

“All that is actually quite complex to try and model,” he said.

If integrated with fire management, Davis said the research could inform 
the complicated calculus of how to allocate scarce firefighting 
resources. At the beginning of last year, the U.S. Forest Service 
unveiled a new “Wildfire Crisis Strategy” to direct its firefighting in 
the next decade.

“The science is moving forward to understand which fires are going to be 
worse, so that we can prioritize our prevention and firefighting 
efforts,” said Davis. “We need more research on this to really try to 
understand which areas are most at risk.”

  -- Emma Foehringer Merchant

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10022023/wildfire-smoke-coast//
/

/- -/

/[ perhaps referring to source material will help with understanding ]/
*Smoke-weather interaction affects extreme wildfires in diverse coastal 
regions*
SCIENCE
2 Feb 2023
*Feedback promotes fire*
How much might interactions between wildfires and local meteorology 
affect short-term wildfire variability? Huang et al. show that 
large-scale feedbacks are an important driving force on extreme fires in 
the Mediterranean, the West Coast of the United States, and Southeastern 
Asia. Smoke aerosols trap and absorb solar energy, changing local wind 
and rainfall patterns and ultimately enhancing fire emissions. These 
interactions constitute a positive feedback that increases air pollution 
exposure and accelerates wildfire expansion. —HJS
*Abstract*
Extreme wildfires threaten human lives, air quality, and ecosystems. 
Meteorology plays a vital role in wildfire behaviors, and the links 
between wildfires and climate have been widely studied. However, it is 
not fully clear how fire-weather feedback affects short-term wildfire 
variability, which undermines our ability to mitigate fire disasters. 
Here, we show the primacy of synoptic-scale feedback in driving extreme 
fires in Mediterranean and monsoon climate regimes in the West Coast of 
the United States and Southeastern Asia. We found that radiative effects 
of smoke aerosols can modify near-surface wind, air dryness, and 
rainfall and thus worsen air pollution by enhancing fire emissions and 
weakening dispersion. The intricate interactions among wildfires, smoke, 
and weather form a positive feedback loop that substantially increases 
air pollution exposure.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add9843
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add9843?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D90072822070346121841557137645376009269%7CMCORGID%3D242B6472541199F70A4C98A6%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1675364567&_ga=2.143481013.1252927546.1675275134-2055836083.1674584372#supplementary-materials

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/[damn,...these are important details for understanding - video 48 min]/
*Mark Mills: The energy transition delusion: inescapable mineral realities*
Jan 16, 2023
Energy expert Mark Mills speaks at SKAGEN Funds New Years Conference 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgOEGKDVvsg

/[The news archive - full 54 minute show of The Unchained Goddess - 
excellent educational video that I may have seen at age 9 - this is a 
great piece of media history ]/
/*February 12, 1958*/
February 12, 1958: "The Unchained Goddess," from the Bell Laboratory 
Science Series produced by Frank Capra, is broadcast. "Goddess" directly 
addresses human-caused climate change; the existence of the program 
would never be acknowledged by climate-change deniers.
Climate Change 1958: The Bell Telephone Science Hour
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPPh_PWl4hg

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- a few are email delivered*

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