[✔️] February 16, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Doom loop, tipping points , Thwaits glacier melting faster, thin ice thinking, history of one powerful storm.

Thu Feb 16 09:55:08 EST 2023

/*February 16, 2023*/

/[  Social destabilization, report should be considered - from the 
Guardian ] /
*World risks descending into a climate ‘doom loop’, warn thinktanks*
Report says simply coping with escalating impacts of climate crisis 
could override tackling root cause
Damian Carrington Environment editor
@dpcarrington
Thu 16 Feb 2023
The world is at risk of descending into a climate “doom loop”, a 
thinktank report has warned.

It said simply coping with the escalating impacts of the climate crisis 
could draw resources and focus away from the efforts to slash carbon 
emissions, making the situation even worse.

The damage caused by global heating across the globe is increasingly 
clear, and recovering from climate disasters is already costing billions 
of dollars. Furthermore, these disasters can cause cascading problems 
including water, food and energy crises, as well as increased migration 
and conflict, all draining countries’ resources.

The researchers, from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) 
and Chatham House, said a current example of the impact of the climate 
crisis complicating efforts to reduce emissions and other action was the 
debate over whether keeping the global temperature rise below 1.5C – the 
international goal – was still possible.

Those arguing 1.5C was still possible risked perpetuating complacency 
that today’s slow pace of action was sufficient, the researchers said, 
while those arguing it was not possible risked supporting fatalism that 
little that could now be done, or “extreme approaches” such as 
geoengineering.

Avoiding a doom loop required a more honest acceptance by politicians of 
the great risks posed by the climate crisis, the researchers said, 
including the looming prospect of tipping points and of the huge scale 
of the economic and societal transformation required to end global 
heating. This should be combined with narratives that focused on the 
great benefits climate action brought and ensuring policies were fairly 
implemented.

“We’ve entered, sadly, a new chapter in the climate and ecological 
crisis,” said Laurie Laybourn, an associate fellow at IPPR. “The phoney 
war is coming to an end and the real consequences now present us with 
difficult decisions. We absolutely can drive towards a more sustainable, 
more equitable world. But our ability to navigate through the shocks 
while staying focused on steering out the storm is key.”

The report said: “This is a doom loop: the consequences of the [climate] 
crisis draw focus and resources from tackling its causes, leading to 
higher temperatures and ecological loss, which then create more severe 
consequences, diverting even more attention and resources, and so on.”...
- -
“The thing I’m most concerned about is that we’re not factoring in the 
cascading risks to societies,” said Laybourn. “It’s not just the big 
city-smashing storms we should be concerned about, it’s the consequences 
that ripple through our globalised systems.”
- -
Unfairness in climate policy could drive the doom loop, Laybourn said, 
because if people felt unaffordable changes were being forced on them 
they would reject the need for a green transition. But, he added: “If 
you have fairness at the heart of things, it can instead be a virtuous 
circle, if you’re in a situation where people recognise that switching 
to a heat pump and having better insulation will be better for them 
regardless of the climate crisis.”
- -
Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the 
London School of Economics, said: “This report rightly highlights the 
critical point we have reached, namely the increasing likelihood that 
global temperature will rise by more than 1.5C. This does not mean that 
we should abandon the target.

“Our main aim should still be radical emissions cuts to try to avoid 
breaching 1.5C, but we should now also be considering what happens if we 
continue to fail.

“This will mean bringing temperatures back down [and] we will have to 
invest in geoengineering options such as carbon dioxide removal and even 
solar radiation management. But it also means we will have to spend far 
more on dealing with [climate] damage, which will make it more difficult 
to make the transition to a sustainable, inclusive and resilient world.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/16/world-risks-descending-into-a-climate-doom-loop-warn-thinktanks

- -

/[ IPPR Chatham House report posted Feb 16, 2023 ]/
*1.5°C – dead or alive? The risks to transformational change from 
reaching and breaching the Paris Agreement goal*
The historical failure to sufficiently tackle the climate and ecological 
crisis could create consequences that challenge the ability of societies 
to tackle the root causes of this crisis.
This is a doom loop: the consequences of the crisis and the failure to 
address it draw focus and resources from tackling its causes. We 
describe this as a ‘strategic risk’ to our collective ability to realise 
a transformation of societies that ultimately avoids catastrophic 
climate and ecological change.
[ download the publication ] 
https://www.ippr.org/files/2023-02/1676546139_1.5c-dead-or-alive-feb23.pdf
https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/1-5c-dead-or-alive

/[ Doomsday Glacier melting in unexpected ways - video explanation of 
new research papers ]/
*Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier is much more Precarious than we thought 
due to Basil Crevice Melt*
Paul Beckwith
Feb 15, 2023
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Achilles Keel is Thwaites Glacier, 
or the so-called Doomsday Glacier. When it goes, global sea levels rise 
over half a meter (1.65 ft), and the rest of the WAIS then becomes 
vulnerable to collapse (4-5 meters global sea level rise).

Today (Feb 16, 2023) two extremely important peer reviewed scientific 
papers were published online that detail observations in the small 
sliver of water underneath the glacier and just above the seafloor near 
the Grounding Line (GL), which is the key terminus region where the 
glacier contacts the seafloor. A Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) was 
passed through a hole (diameter just larger than a basketball) passing 
through the 587 meter thick ice (drilled out with a hot water jet) into 
the 54 meter thick water sliver at the bottom of the ice.

This ROV measured ocean currents, temperature, salinity, etc. and passed 
the data and a real-time video feed through a fiber optic cable back to 
the scientists at the surface.

*Key Findings:*
The water temperature, about 2 C above freezing (theoretically capable 
of melting 30-40 meters of ice thickness per year) melted the horizontal 
undersurface of the ice only 5 meters per year (much slower than 
expected, due to a 2 meter thick layer of cold fresh meltwater 
insulating the ice from the warmer saltier water below).

But, and it’s a huge but:
There were basal crevasses in the ice that had vertical walls melting at 
over 30 meters per year, with melt rates as high as 43 meters per year.

These vertical crevices in the ice eventually reach to the top of the 
ice sheet as it thins seaward, and lead to complete fracturing of the 
ice shelf.

Bottom line: It won’t be a surprise if this ice shelf (150 km front, 
glacier as large as Florida) fractures and catastrophically collapses 
within the next decade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYkCbksUrAQ

- -

/[ See the paper in the Journal nature  ]/
Published: 15 February 2023
*Suppressed basal melting in the eastern Thwaites Glacier grounding zone*

    *Abstract*
    Thwaites Glacier is one of the fastest-changing ice–ocean systems in
    Antarctica. Much of the ice sheet within the catchment of Thwaites
    Glacier is grounded below sea level on bedrock that deepens inland,
    making it susceptible to rapid and irreversible ice loss that could
    raise the global sea level by more than half a metre. The rate and
    extent of ice loss, and whether it proceeds irreversibly, are set by
    the ocean conditions and basal melting within the grounding-zone
    region where Thwaites Glacier first goes afloat, both of which are
    largely unknown. Here we show—using observations from a
    hot-water-drilled access hole—that the grounding zone of Thwaites
    Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) is characterized by a warm and highly
    stable water column with temperatures substantially higher than the
    in situ freezing point. Despite these warm conditions, low current
    speeds and strong density stratification in the ice–ocean boundary
    layer actively restrict the vertical mixing of heat towards the ice
    base, resulting in strongly suppressed basal melting. Our results
    demonstrate that the canonical model of ice-shelf basal melting used
    to generate sea-level projections cannot reproduce observed melt
    rates beneath this critically important glacier, and that rapid and
    possibly unstable grounding-line retreat may be associated with
    relatively modest basal melt rates.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05586-0

- -

/[ printed AP news article by Seth Borenstein ]/
*Skinny robot documents forces eroding Doomsday Glacier*
By SETH BORENSTEIN
2-14-2023
Scientists got their first up-close look at what’s eating away part of 
Antarctica’s Thwaites ice shelf, nicknamed the Doomsday Glacier because 
of its massive melt and sea rise potential, and it’s both good and bad 
news...
- -
Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, who wasn’t part of 
the studies, said the results add to understanding how Thwaites is 
diminishing.

“Unfortunately, this is still going to be a major issue a century from 
now,” Scambos said in an email. “But our better understanding gives us 
some time to take action to slow the pace of sea level rise.”
https://apnews.com/article/science-climate-and-environment-glaciers-ae2b053b434c4dd3767bbec2442d874a

- -

/[  AP -  more local danger of thin ice -  Vermont  - rather danger is 
thinking our world as it was in the past ]/
*Vermont ice fishing deaths highlight safety protocols*
February 14, 2023
SOUTH HERO, Vt. (AP) — Vermont authorities could not have done anything 
more to prevent the deaths of three ice fishermen who fell through the 
ice on Lake Champlain in two separate incidents within days of each 
other, the head of the Vermont Fish and Wildlife Department said Tuesday...
- -
Ice conditions are typically good at this time of year for ice fishing, 
but it has been unusually warm, according to Chris Herrick, commissioner 
of the Vermont Department of Fish and Wildlife. The department always 
recommends checking the ice — with a metal pole or an auger — and never 
recommends taking a vehicle onto the ice, Herrick said.

“All along, like we always do, we tell people to check the ice 
conditions, talk to the bait shops and find out what people were saying 
about the thickness. And so I feel our messaging was right on target,” 
he said.
The department had put out a news release on Jan. 3 about recommended 
ice thickness, followed by a social media post. It also supplied ice 
fishing safety tips and other information online...
- -
Vermont State Police said following the deaths that state authorities 
were advising “the public to stay off the ice on Lake Champlain while 
the current warm weather persists.”

State leaders have identified warming temperatures as a concern, 
especially in recreation. The rate of warming “has increased through the 
last 120 years, and is currently around +0.5°F a decade,” according to 
the Initial Vermont Climate Action Plan released in 2021...
- -
Vermont State Police said following the deaths that state authorities 
were advising “the public to stay off the ice on Lake Champlain while 
the current warm weather persists.”

State leaders have identified warming temperatures as a concern, 
especially in recreation. The rate of warming “has increased through the 
last 120 years, and is currently around +0.5°F a decade,” according to 
the Initial Vermont Climate Action Plan released in 2021...
https://apnews.com/article/vermont-climate-and-environment-48b197613ce486f7ba6b74f1d0f0abff

/[ history of one powerful storm  ]/
*The Storm That Killed Millions, Created A Nation, And Almost Led To 
Nuclear War*
Joe Scott
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdFGSkh5X24

- -

/[ book about a weather event that struck at the very worst time and 
place ]/
*Into The Vortex With Author Scott Carney - Episode 23*
Conversations With Joe
Feb 12, 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXahQUpFaJ8

/[The news archive - looking back at how slowly this topic was 
considered by US presidents. ]/
/*February 16, 2002*/

February 16, 2002: In response to President George W. Bush's February 
14, 2002 speech on climate change, the New York Times editorial page 
declares:

"The obvious conclusion to be drawn from President Bush's latest global 
warming strategy, unveiled this week, is that he does not regard warming 
as a problem. There seems no other way to interpret a policy that would 
actually increase the gases responsible for heating the earth's 
atmosphere. That the policy demands little from the American people, 
while insulting allies who have agreed to take tough steps to deal with 
the problem, only adds to one's sense of dismay."

    Opinion
    *Backward on Global Warming*
    Feb. 16, 2002

    The obvious conclusion to be drawn from President Bush's latest
    global warming strategy, unveiled this week, is that he does not
    regard warming as a problem. There seems no other way to interpret a
    policy that would actually increase the gases responsible for
    heating the earth's atmosphere. That the policy demands little from
    the American people, while insulting allies who have agreed to take
    tough steps to deal with the problem, only adds to one's sense of
    dismay.

    The White House described Mr. Bush's strategy as aggressive and
    bold. The only thing bold about it are accounting tactics worthy of
    Enron that are designed to make an increase in emissions look like a
    decrease.

    The plan is voluntary and consists mainly of tax credits and other
    incentives to encourage Americans to limit emissions. There is
    nothing wrong with voluntary measures or with the credits. Several
    American companies have already reduced emissions on their own,
    partly for environmental reasons and partly because the efficiencies
    required to achieve reductions make economic sense.

    But these piecemeal efforts have been undertaken largely in the
    expectation that at some point the United States would join in a
    collective attack on the buildup of carbon dioxide in the
    atmosphere, which mainstream scientists now agree could trigger
    unwelcome changes in the earth's climate. Mr. Bush has refused to
    join that effort, abandoning his campaign pledge to limit carbon
    emissions and renouncing the 1997 Kyoto Protocol committing
    industrialized nations to mandatory reductions of carbon and other
    greenhouse gases.

    Mr. Bush's long-awaited substitute for Kyoto is a disappointment.
    The essence of his strategy is a concept that seems to have been
    minted for the occasion, called ''emissions intensity,'' under which
    carbon dioxide pollution would be allowed to grow, but at a slower
    rate than economic output. That sounds attractive, but it misses the
    point. The buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, already
    alarmingly high, is a cumulative process. Thus the name of the game
    is to stop adding new emissions to the vast amounts already up
    there, not simply to slow their growth.

    Yet that is all Mr. Bush is proposing to do, meanwhile dressing up
    his meager agenda with some squirrely math. He first posits an
    increase in emissions that is higher and more rapid than the
    forecasts of his own Energy Department. Then, from this
    ''business-as-usual'' baseline, he promises reductions of 18 percent
    in the next 10 years. By his own figures, however, actual emissions
    -- the ones that count -- could rise by 14 percent, which is exactly
    the rate at which they have been rising for the last 10 years.

    Mr. Bush's speech also included proposals aimed at reducing three
    other pollutants largely unrelated to global warming: mercury,
    sulfur dioxide -- the main cause of acid rain -- and nitrogen
    oxides, which contribute to urban smog. The president called for
    stronger, mandatory caps on all three pollutants and for
    market-based mechanisms like emissions trading to help companies
    meet those targets. Mr. Bush would substitute this ''cap and trade''
    approach for the complex system of regulations that now govern clean
    air enforcement.

    In principle, these are fine ideas. But before disposing of the
    existing regulatory structure, Congress must be fully satisfied that
    the president's proposals will in fact achieve the sizable
    reductions he and his senior associates say they will. We cannot
    abandon existing law for a promise. Meanwhile, Congress is obliged
    to do something, and soon, to develop a credible national strategy
    on global warming. On this score Mr. Bush has fallen well short of
    the mark.

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/16/opinion/backward-on-global-warming.html

backwards on global warming 
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/13/opinion/climate-change-effects-countries.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-op-climate&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_1&block=storyline_opinion_swipe_recirc

=======================================
*Mass media is lacking, many daily summariesdeliver global warming news 
- a few are email delivered*

=========================================================
**Inside Climate News*
Newsletters
We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. Every day or 
once a week, our original stories and digest of the web’s top headlines 
deliver the full story, for free.
https://insideclimatenews.org/
---------------------------------------
**Climate Nexus* https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*
Delivered straight to your inbox every morning, Hot News summarizes the 
most important climate and energy news of the day, delivering an 
unmatched aggregation of timely, relevant reporting. It also provides 
original reporting and commentary on climate denial and pro-polluter 
activity that would otherwise remain largely unexposed.    5 weekday
=================================
*Carbon Brief Daily https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up*
Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon Brief 
sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to thousands of 
subscribers around the world. The email is a digest of the past 24 hours 
of media coverage related to climate change and energy, as well as our 
pick of the key studies published in the peer-reviewed journals.
more at https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief
==================================
*T*he Daily Climate *Subscribe https://ehsciences.activehosted.com/f/61*
Get The Daily Climate in your inbox - FREE! Top news on climate impacts, 
solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered week days. Better than coffee.
Other newsletters  at https://www.dailyclimate.org/originals/

/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/ 

/Archive of Daily Global Warming News 
https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/

/To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe 
<mailto:subscribe at theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request> 
to news digest./

Privacy and Security:*This mailing is text-only.  It does not carry 
images or attachments which may originate from remote servers.  A 
text-only message can provide greater privacy to the receiver and 
sender. This is a personal hobby production curated by Richard Pauli
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain cannot be used for commercial 
purposes. Messages have no tracking software.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote 
<mailto:contact at theclimate.vote> with subject subscribe, To Unsubscribe, 
subject: unsubscribe
Also you may subscribe/unsubscribe at 
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Pauli for 
http://TheClimate.Vote <http://TheClimate.Vote/> delivering succinct 
information for citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List 
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously restricted to 
this mailing list.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/attachments/20230216/18ffa094/attachment.htm>