[✔️] January 8, 2023- Global Warming News Digest - more deluge

Richard Pauli Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Sun Jan 8 07:19:16 EST 2023 

/*January 8, 2023*/

/[ video forecast  - heated areas make jetstreams stretch out straight ]/
*We’re About To Get Slammed By These Huge Storms…*
Ryan Hall, Y'all
33,467 views  Jan 7, 2023  #weatherchannel #ryanhall #ryanhallyall
In this video we are talking about how we are about to get slammed by 
these upcoming huge storms. Everyone will be impacted in some way.
More Atmospheric Rivers Are Coming: 0:00

    Strange Jet Stream: 2:13
    Potential Cross Country Storm: 3:52
    The Perfect Storm Fuel: 5:41

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7QZNChEN5Y

- -

/[ From Yale, top weather forecasting ]/
*More wind, rain, flooding ahead for storm-battered California*
At least two more intense cyclones expected to slam the state into next 
week.
by BOB HENSON and JEFF MASTERS
JANUARY 4, 2023
   [  ---concludes...]
It’s been tough in recent years for the state to scare up a full 
winter’s worth of moisture, as California has been in the grip of a 
devastating 22-year drought that has cost billions of dollars and helped 
fuel record wildfire seasons

The trend toward “hot droughts” has made these long moisture-free 
periods even more worrisome, helping extend the wildfire season into 
months where fire was once uncommon. Thus, the rains of 2023 will bring 
welcome drought relief and are likely to prevent hundreds of millions of 
dollars of drought damages. Several reservoirs in the state have already 
gone above their average water levels for this point in the season 
(Figure 3), and additional liquid gold will fill the reservoirs in the 
coming weeks.

The ongoing series of storms will surely push January’s precipitation 
toward average for the month, and perhaps well beyond. But will the 
faucet keep running? In its Jan. 3 statement, the California Department 
of Natural Resources, which carries out the snow survey, noted: “This 
January’s results are similar to results in 2013 and 2022 when the 
January 1 snowpack was at or above average conditions, only for dry 
weather to set in and lead to drought conditions by the end of the water 
year (September 30).”

Unfortunately, the rains will bring costly flooding likely to cause 
hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. This whipsaw from damaging 
drought to damaging flooding is a particularly striking example of the 
exacerbation of precipitation extremes that a warming climate is likely 
to continue producing in an area naturally prone to weather whiplash, as 
documented by Daniel Swain and coauthors in a 2018 paper in Nature 
Climate Change, “Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first 
century California.”

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/01/more-wind-rain-flooding-ahead-for-storm-battered-california/

- -

/[  from Nature Climate Change]/
*Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California*
Published: 23 April 2018
*Abstract*
Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid 
shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition 
from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness 
during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected 
future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately 
quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System 
Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing 
is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency 
of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in 
sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. 
Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also 
apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet 
precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean 
precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously 
challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood 
control infrastructure.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0140-y


/[  splash in the face for a thirsty man  ] /
*California’s deadly floods won’t break the megadrought*
Atmospheric rivers are dumping rain on California. That’s not a good thing.
By Neel Dhanesha  @neel_dhan neel.dhanesha at vox.com
Jan 6, 2023
A “river” more than 100 miles wide is gushing through the air high above 
California, bringing with it heavy rain, winds, and snow. It’s the third 
in a series of weather systems known as atmospheric rivers — long, heavy 
columns of water vapor in the sky — to hit the state in the last two weeks.

It’s already proven deadly: Two people have died as a result of the 
storms, including a toddler; roads have flooded or been hit by 
mudslides, forcing evacuations; and more than 180,000 Californians lost 
power. On Wednesday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of 
emergency ahead of the storm’s arrival, and the city of San Francisco 
ran out of sandbags for the second day in a row as residents rushed to 
protect their homes from the possibility of flooding.

Once the storm passes, there will be little respite: Another atmospheric 
river is forecast to hit the state this coming weekend and next week, 
bringing even more flooding...
- -
*Reason 1: Too much water all at once*
As we wrote last August, droughts and floods are something of a vicious 
cycle. It takes time for water to soak into soil, and having multiple 
storms hit in quick succession is something like overwatering a potted 
plant: The soil simply can’t take any more water. Eventually the rain 
turns into floods, which further erode the soil and bring the risk of 
downed trees, which can take out power lines and damage buildings; a 
2-year-old child was killed this week when a redwood fell on a mobile 
home in Sonoma County.
- -
If the rain had been spaced out over a series of months, it might have 
helped with the drought by filling reservoirs over time, said Noah 
Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University’s Water in the 
West program. The soil would also be less saturated, allowing for more 
water to soak in more slowly, replenishing groundwater wells and 
reducing the chance of flooding.

Instead of collecting in reservoirs or soaking into the ground, the 
water has nowhere productive to go. So it floods.
*Reason 2: Too little water altogether*
Expecting these extreme rain events to alleviate the drought is a bit 
like racking up thousands of dollars in debt over the course of months 
and only receiving one or two paychecks at the end of the year...
- -
The water can’t be diverted to the large reservoirs, either, since the 
system that’s used to move water around the state isn’t designed for 
quick, heavy events like these atmospheric rivers, and building out a 
system that can do so will take massive investments of time and money.

*Reason 3: Climate change is making snowpack melt earlier*
The reservoirs are also only part of the water puzzle in California. 
Just as important is snowpack, or the accumulated snow on mountains, 
which acts like a natural water-storage system and provides about 30 
percent of the state’s water.

The atmospheric rivers are bringing snow to the Sierra Nevada mountains, 
but the snow line is moving higher and higher as climate change 
intensifies, meaning there’s less snow overall, and the snow doesn’t 
last as long as it used to.

A snow survey conducted by the DWR earlier in the week showed the storms 
that hit California in December brought a significant amount of snow 
with them, but the question is whether that snow will last through the 
year. A 2022 January snow survey came back with the seventh-highest 
measurements on record for that location, but by April 1, much of that 
snow had disappeared, leading to the third-lowest measurements on record 
for the same spot. Losing that snow early means it won’t be available 
during the summer months, when the water is most needed.

Atmospheric rivers like the ones hitting California this winter are 
going to keep hitting the state. As climate change continues to 
transform the water realities of the West, Diffenbaugh said, the state 
will likely have to retool its infrastructure to capture more stormwater 
from those events and reduce its reliance on the steadily disappearing 
snowpack.

“We have a lot of water infrastructure systems that are really 
sophisticated,” said Diffenbaugh. “Part of the challenge is updating 
those really well-developed systems to be resilient to and prepared for 
the challenges that this new climate provides.”
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2023/1/6/23542194/california-atmospheric-river-flood-drought



/[ See 20 changes -- Weather Channel - really? The end of this century? ]/
*Shocking Photos Show Snowless Ski Resorts Across Europe*
By Nicole Bonaccorso
- -  Alarming photos show nearly snowless ski areas in Europe's Alps 
this month.
- - Record-breaking temperatures and low snowfall are to blame.
- - Nearly half of France's ski slopes are closed due to lack of snow.
C​limate experts say snowless slopes could become more common as global 
temperatures rise.

”By the end of the century (it’s) just going to be over ... skiing in 
the Alps as we know it,” Wim Thiery, a professor of climate science at 
the University of Brussels, told The Associated Press. "In the future, 
these problems will get worse, because the snow will continue to melt as 
long as the climate warms.”

https://weather.com/photos/news/2023-01-06-snowless-ski-resorts-europe-photos 




/[  library distress ]/
*Floods, Fires and Humidity: How Climate Change Affects Book Preservation*
As extreme weather events become more common, archivists and 
conservators are scrambling to protect their collections...
Emmett Lindner
Jan. 7, 2023

At Tulane University, 1.5 million books and manuscripts were drenched 
when Hurricane Katrina swept through Louisiana in 2005. In 2018, the 
University of California, Los Angeles was in talks to receive a donor’s 
collection when it was destroyed in the Woolsey fire. And the following 
year, the Getty fire sent up thick, black plumes of smoke that 
threatened to filter into U.C.L.A.’s libraries and damage the fragile 
materials housed inside.
- -
But luck is not a safeguard against the growing threat posed by extreme 
weather events such as wildfires and floods to book collections, even 
collections housed in professional facilities. As those events have 
become more common as a result of climate change, preservationists 
across the United States know they must adapt their practices to keep 
books and archives safe. But the solutions can raise their own set of 
sustainability issues.

Many experts feel they are in a race against time. A 2018 study 
published in the Climate Risk Management journal assessed 1,232 archival 
repositories in the United States and found that nearly 99 percent were 
“likely to be affected by at least one climate risk factor.”...
- -
Shifts in temperature and humidity from climate change can have large 
consequences...
- -
“The higher the humidity, the higher the temperature, the quicker they 
will break down their organic materials,” said Holly Prochaska, the 
interim head of the Archives and Rare Books Library at the University of 
Cincinnati. “Leather will wet rot. Collagen fibers in vellum will 
tighten and shrink.”..
- -
“Books gain meaning by use — use is exhibit, use is research — and 
there’s a beauty in use,” Metzger said. “If we just isolate things and 
keep them in these little, perfectly-controlled environments with guards 
around them, what is their meaning anymore?”...
- -
The threat from climate change is an ongoing problem, and there is no 
perfect solution as collections by design amass more and more materials.

“The needs of the book are actually not that complicated,” Metzger said. 
“The world around it has become more complicated.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/07/books/climate-change-book-preservation.html

- -

/[ The physical books is ill-suited for our future ]/
*American archives and climate change: Risks and adaptation*
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.03.005Get rights and content
Under a Creative Commons license

    Climate risks to cultural heritage in archives are unevenly
    distributed across the U.S.

    Climate change will modify archive risk exposure in the future.

    Archivists need reliable and local climate risk information for
    planning.

    Climate risk analysis and mapping can inform adaptation efforts.

*Abstract*

    Climate change directly affects the future security of cultural
    resources. Cultural heritage and in particular, archives, are
    increasingly at risk of degradation due to climate change threats
    and triggers. This study evaluated present and future consequences
    of water-related climate change impacts using a mapping methodology
    to assess exposure of American archives to incompatible weather
    extremes. Susceptibility to climate change threats like sea level
    rise, storm surge, surface water flooding, and humidity, all
    influenced by a combination of temperature rise and increased
    precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were assessed for 1232
    archival repositories. Results indicate that approximately 98.8% of
    archives are likely to be affected by at least one climate risk
    factor, though on average, most archives are at low risk of exposure
    (90%) when risk factors are combined. Future storm surge plus sea
    level rise was likely to impact 17.7% of archival repositories with
    22.1% affected by only storm surge and 4.3% affected by only sea
    level rise (1.8-m scenario). Fewer archives were likely to be
    susceptible to surface water flooding (2.4%). More than 90% of
    archives were estimated to have a temperature change greater than
    ±1 °C, with 7.5% of sites likely to change by ±10 °C, and 69.5% of
    archives were likely to receive at least 152 mm more rainfall by
    2100 over current annual averages. In terms of sustainability,
    developing appropriate socio-economic planning schemes that
    integrate cumulative exposure of archives to future climate patterns
    is critically important for safeguarding society and its heritage.
    The outcomes from the risk assessment in this study aid in the
    decision-making process by promoting strategic adaptation protocols
    and providing administrators a way to prioritize archival management
    goals based on the expected severity of future climate change impacts.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096318300135?via%3Dihub


/[ Four years ago, two scientists discuss climate scientists. 
Foundational, but needs an update ]/
*Did scientists get climate change wrong?*
Sabine Hossenfelder
345,255 views  Nov 15, 2019
Interview with Prof Tim Palmer from the University of Oxford.

A recent opinion piece in the New York Times argued that scientists got 
climate change wrong
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/opinion/sunday/science-climate-change.html

But did they really?

In this video we speak about the uncertainty of climate predictions, 
tipping points, what we know, what we do not know about the trends, and 
what policy consequences to draw from that.

The mentioned article in the Guardian is here:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/25/the-real-reason-some-scientists-downplay-the-risks-of-climate-change

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fkCo_trbT8


/[The news archive - looking back at one moment of bipartisan agreement 
- but failed action  ]/
/*January 8, 2003*/
January 8, 2003: Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) 
introduce the bipartisan Climate Stewardship Act of 2003, which would 
establish a federal cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas 
emissions. (The bill would be defeated in the Senate in October 2003.)

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/09/us/politics-economy-environment-mccain-lieberman-offer-bill-require-cuts-gases.html 


http://www.edf.org/news/environmental-defense-praises-new-mccain-lieberman-climate-bill 




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