[✔️] June 8, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Smoke and Fire maps US, future trends, Pacific NW peak dryness, Sarcastic cartoon humor First Dog, How to stay calm, 1990 when 2 scientists debated

[Richard Pauli]

/*June*//*8, 2023*/

/[ Long Term Fire Risk Outlook - maps with easy graphics ]/
*National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook*
The outlook identifies areas by month for the next four months with 
above, below, and near normal significant fire potential.

The main objectives of the National Significant Wildland Fire Potential 
Outlooks are to improve information available to fire management 
decision makers.  These assessments are designed to inform decision 
makers for proactive wildland fire management, thus better protecting 
lives and property, reducing firefighting costs and improving 
firefighting efficiency.
The following maps represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven 
Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive 
Services Unit.
*/pdf /**/National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook/*
/https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf/
https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

- -

/[ Welcome to the future ]/
*The massive smoke plume choking the northeast U.S. is what climate 
change looks like*
Unearthly skies and unhealthy air resulting from Canadian wildfires may 
persist for days.
by BOB HENSON and JEFF MASTERS
JUNE 7, 2023
Some of the most intense, dramatic wildfire smoke in memory swept into 
the northeast United States on Tuesday, June 6, pushing pollution levels 
in some cities to record highs. Millions of people from the U.S. 
mid-Atlantic to southeast Canada were confronted on Tuesday and again on 
Wednesday by surreal, copper-yellow skies and shrouded horizons.
Portions of five states and two Canadian provinces experienced 24-hour 
levels of fine particle pollution, known as PM 2.5, in the “Unhealthy” 
(red) range, with even higher levels measured on an hourly basis. 
According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, at that level, 
everyone may begin to experience health effects, and members of 
sensitive groups may experience more serious health effects. Near 
Canada’s capital city of Ottawa, 24-hour PM 2.5 levels were in the “Very 
Unhealthy” (purple) range. According to the EPA, this level of pollution 
triggers a health alert, meaning everyone may experience more serious 
health effects.
The smoke was belching from dozens of wildfires burning across Quebec, 
which has experienced its hottest, driest late spring on record, as has 
much of Canada. As noted by Capital Weather Gang, New York City, 
Detroit, and Toronto ranked at one point on Tuesday as three of the 12 
most polluted major cities on Earth.

/Read: How to protect yourself from wildfire smoke - 
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/how-to-protect-yourself-from-wildfire-smoke///
/
At a news conference Wednesday morning, New York City Mayor Eric Adams 
said, “This is an unprecedented event in our city and New Yorkers must 
take precautions. We recommend vulnerable New Yorkers stay inside … This 
is not the day to train for a marathon.” He added: “Climate change has 
accelerated these conditions. We must continue to draw down emissions, 
improve air quality, and build resiliency.” New York City recorded its 
highest daily levels of PM 2.5 pollution on record Tuesday, reaching an 
AQI of 174 in Queens.
Conditions are predicted to be even worse in many areas on Wednesday and 
Thursday, as another major plume of thick smoke works its way southward 
from Quebec through the Northeast U.S. More grim news: the broader 
weather pattern – with the main jet stream pushed all the way to the 
Arctic by relentless, summerlike high pressure across the heart of North 
America – may continue stoking widespread fire in Canada and periodic 
infusions of smoke into the U.S. for days to come...
- -
At 10 a.m. EDT Wednesday, June 7, the worst air in the U.S. was in 
Syracuse, New York, which had an hourly PM 2.5 AQI of 402 — well into 
the “Hazardous” range. EPA warns that an AQI in this range will “trigger 
health warnings of emergency conditions. The entire population is even 
more likely to be affected by serious health effects.” Syracuse set an 
all-time record on Tuesday for the highest 24-hour PM 2.5 levels, and 
that record will likely be broken again today...
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/06/the-massive-smoke-plume-choking-the-northeast-u-s-is-what-climate-change-looks-like/

- -

/[ this is where I live  ] /
*Northwest approaches 'peak dryness' much sooner than expected*
Anna King
KUOW STAFF
June 06, 2023
Things are drying out in the Northwest sooner than normal. Both 
Washington state and Oregon are approaching what's called "peak dryness."

Oregon mostly recovered from severe droughts this year. Heavy rain and 
snow hit many areas, and snowpack built up in the mountains.

But everything’s been on a low bake since May. All the sunny days last 
month have added up to warmer soils and plants drying out more quickly. 
The driest part of the year usually hits in mid- or late-summer.

“We all know that fire season, you know every week we can delay it, is a 
good thing," said Larry O’Neill, Oregon’s state climatologist. "That’s 
why we’re so concerned with how warm it’s getting and how little 
precipitation we’re getting.”

Washington is starting to feel the parch, too. In the Yakima River 
Basin, some junior-water-rights farmers will be restricted on their 
irrigation water this year....

The National Interagency Coordination Center says the chance for 
significant wildfires in central and eastern Washington is now above 
normal. It also says that above-normal outlook will extend to nearly the 
entire state next month.

Most of Western Washington is currently dealing with an elevated fire 
risk. The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning Tuesday for 
the western slopes of the Cascades, because of the breezy conditions, 
low humidity levels, and warming temperatures.
https://kuow.org/stories/washington-oregon-northwest-dry-dryness-2023



/[ Sarcastic cartoon humor  ]/
*What even is El Niño? To be honest nobody really understands or cares 
any more*
First Dog on the Moon
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/05/what-even-is-el-nino-to-be-honest-nobody-really-understands-or-cares-any-more


/[ some lessons for us all  -- animation and a transcript ]/
*How to stay calm under pressure*
6,597,320 views | Noa Kageyama and Pen-Pen Chen • TED-Ed

Your favorite athlete closes in for a win; the crowd holds its breath, 
and at the crucial moment ... she misses the shot. That competitor just 
experienced the phenomenon known as "choking," where despite months, 
even years, of practice, a person fails right when it matters most. Why 
does this happen, and what can we do to avoid it? Noa Kageyama and 
Pen-Pen Chen explain why we choke under pressure. [Directed by Olesya 
Shchukina, narrated by Pen-Pen Chen, music by Stephen LaRosa].
Meet the educator
Noa Kageyama
https://www.ted.com/talks/noa_kageyama_and_pen_pen_chen_how_to_stay_calm_under_pressure



/[The news archive - looking back at a debate between two respected MIT 
scientists -- Note that denier Richard Lindzen receives yearly stipends 
from ExxonMobile https://www.desmog.com/richard-lindzen/ ]/
/*June 8, 1990 */
June 8, 1990: The Massachusetts Institute of Technology hosts a 
global-warming debate between climate scientist Stephen Schneider and 
climate denier Dick Lindzen. Reporting on the debate the next day, the 
Boston Globe notes:

"A long-anticipated showdown at the Massachusetts Institute of 
Technology yesterday between two prominent voices in the global-warming 
debate brought little agreement about the reliability of current 
predictions for the rate and magnitude of climate change. But despite 
the seriousness of the topic, the event did provide a theatrical and 
sometimes humorous presentation of the arguments on either side.

"Underscoring the range of scientific opinion on the issue, the 
organizers put MIT meteorologist Richard Lindzen on one side and climate 
researcher Stephen Schneider of the National Center for Atmospheric 
Research on the other side of a table divided down the middle. 
Schneider, who believes there is a better-than-even chance of 
'unprecedentedly fast climate change' in the next century, sat at the 
red end in front of a palm tree, while Lindzen, one the most vocal 
skeptics, commanded the blue extreme before a scraggly spruce. The 
moderator straddled the border.

"These models are made up of equations that are meant to represent the 
important physical processes -- such as motion and heat transport in the 
atmosphere -- that work together to create weather and climate. Based on 
the work of five climate modeling teams in the United States and Britain 
and forecasts of energy use, scientists have projected that the earth's 
average temperature will rise between 3 and 9 degrees Fahrenheit by the 
middle of the next century. While such a temperature rise might not 
sound like much, climate researchers say that such a sharp rise in 
global temperature in such a short time almost certainly would cause 
major shifts in climate."

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-105shrg46585/html/CHRG-105shrg46585.htm

*A RATIONAL DISCUSSION OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, THE EVIDENCE, THE 
RESPONSE*
Text available as: PDF (2MB) 
https://www.congress.gov/111/chrg/CHRG-111hhrg62618/CHRG-111hhrg62618.pdf




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