[✔️] November 5, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Catch-22, Fire predictions, catch up, To quash, Kentucky, Senate Republicans, 1965 LBJ informed 58 years ago

[Richard Pauli]

/*November *//*5, 2023*/

/[ Important to know that cleaner air means hotter temperatures ]/
*Climate's 'Catch-22': Cutting pollution heats up the planet*
By Jake Spring and David Stanway
November 2, 2023
Nov 2 (Reuters) - Air pollution, a global scourge that kills millions of 
people a year, is shielding us from the full force of the sun. Getting 
rid of it will accelerate climate change.

That's the unpalatable conclusion reached by scientists poring over the 
results of China's decade-long and highly effective "war on pollution", 
according to six leading climate experts.

The drive to banish pollution, caused mainly by sulphur dioxide (SO2) 
spewed from coal plants, has cut SO2 emissions by close to 90% and saved 
hundreds of thousands of lives, Chinese official data and health studies 
show.
Yet stripped of its toxic shield, which scatters and reflects solar 
radiation, China's average temperatures have gone up by 0.7 degrees 
Celsius since 2014, triggering fiercer heatwaves, according to a Reuters 
review of meteorological data and the scientists interviewed.

"It's this Catch-22," said Patricia Quinn, an atmospheric chemist at the 
U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), speaking 
about cleaning up sulphur pollution globally. "We want to clean up our 
air for air quality purposes but, by doing that, we're increasing warming."
The removal of the air pollution - a term scientists call "unmasking" - 
may have had a greater effect on temperatures in some industrial Chinese 
cities over the last decade than the warming from greenhouse gases 
themselves, the scientists said.

Other highly polluted parts of the world, such as India and the Middle 
East, would see similar jumps in warming if they follow China's lead in 
cleaning the skies of sulphur dioxide and the polluting aerosols it 
forms, the experts warned.
The drop in pollution was accompanied by a leap in warming - the nine 
years since 2014 have seen national average annual temperatures in China 
of 10.34C, up more than 0.7C compared with the 2001-2010 period, 
according to Reuters calculations based on yearly weather reports 
published by the China Meteorological Administration.

Scientific estimates vary as to how much of that rise comes from 
unmasking versus greenhouse gas emissions or natural climate variations 
like El Nino.

The impacts are more acute at a local level near the pollution source. 
Almost immediately, China saw big warming jumps from its unmasking of 
pollution near heavy industrial regions, according to climate scientist 
Yangyang Xu at Texas A&M University, who models the impact of aerosols 
on the climate.

Xu told Reuters he estimated that unmasking had caused temperatures near 
the cities of Chongqing and Wuhan, long known as China's "furnaces", to 
rise by almost 1C since sulphur emissions peaked in the mid-2000s.

During heatwaves, the unmasking effect can be even more pronounced. 
Laura Wilcox, a climate scientist who studies the effects of aerosols at 
Britain's University of Reading, said a computer simulation showed that 
the rapid decline in SO2 in China could raise temperatures on 
extreme-heat days by as much as 2C.

"Those are big differences, especially for somewhere like China, where 
heat is already pretty dangerous," she said.

Indeed, heatwaves in China have been particularly ferocious this year. A 
town in the northwestern region of Xinjiang saw temperatures of 52.2C 
(126F) in July, shattering the national temperature record of 50.3C set 
in 2015.

Beijing also experienced a record heatwave, with temperatures topping 
35C (95F) for more than four weeks.

INDIA AND MIDDLE EAST
The effects of sulphur unmasking are most pronounced in developing 
countries, as the U.S. and most of Europe cleaned up their skies decades 
ago. While the heat rise from sulphur cleanup is strongest locally, the 
effects can be felt in far-distant regions. One 2021 study co-authored 
by Xu found that a decrease in European aerosol emissions since the 
1980s may have shifted weather patterns in Northern China.

In India, sulphur pollution is still rising, roughly doubling in the 
last two decades, according to calculations by NOAA researchers based on 
figures from the U.S.-funded Community Emissions Data System.

In 2020, when that pollution plummeted due to COVID lockdowns, ground 
temperatures in India were the eighth warmest on record, 0.29 C higher 
than the 1981-2010 average, despite the cooling effects of the La Nina 
climate pattern, according to the India Meteorological Department.

India aims for an air cleanup like China's, and in 2019 launched its 
National Clean Air Programme to reduce pollution by 40% in more than 100 
cities by 2026.

Once polluted regions in India or the Middle East improve their air 
quality by abandoning fossil fuels and transitioning to green energy 
sources, they too will lose their shield of sulphates, scientists said.

"You stop your anthropogenic activities for a brief moment of time and 
the atmosphere cleans up very, very quickly and the temperatures jump 
instantaneously," added Sergey Osipov, a climate modeller at the King 
Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia.
*
OFFSETTING WITH METHANE?*
As the implications of the pollution unmasking become more apparent, 
experts are casting around for methods to counter the associated warming.

One proposal called "solar radiation management" envisions deliberately 
injecting sulphur aerosols into the atmosphere to cool temperatures. But 
many scientists worry that the approach could unleash unintended 
consequences.

A more mainstream plan is to curb methane emissions. This is seen as the 
quickest way to tame global temperatures because the effects of the gas 
in the atmosphere last only a decade or so, so cutting emissions now 
would deliver results within a decade. Carbon dioxide, by comparison, 
persists for centuries.

As of 2019, methane had caused about 0.5C in warming compared with 
preindustrial levels, according to IPCC figures.

While more than 100 countries have pledged to reduce methane emissions 
by 30% by the end of the decade, few have gone further than drawing up 
"action plans" and "pathways" to cuts. China - the world's biggest 
emitter - has yet to publish its plan.

By targeting methane, the world could mitigate the warming effect of the 
reduction in pollution and potentially avert catastrophic consequences, 
said Michael Diamond, an atmospheric scientist at Florida State University.

"This doesn't doom us to going above 1.5 degrees Celsius if we clean up 
the air."
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/climates-catch-22-cutting-pollution-heats-up-planet-2023-11-02/



/[ Wildfire Today - planning ahead - opinion ]/
*More simultaneous large fires in the next 60 years*
Hunter Bassler
November 3, 2023
Wildfire simultaneity, or numerous large wildfires burning at the same 
time, will become at least twice as frequent by 2085, researchers are 
warning. A steadily increasing number of large wildland fires — and the 
number of acres burned — has occurred over the past few decades in the 
American West, but new research has found that simultaneous large fires 
will burn even more often.

“Future regional increases in simultaneous large Western USA wildfires” 
was published in the International Journal of Wildland Fire by the 
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research; it focused on wildfires 
that burned 1,000 acres or more between 1984 and 2015. Researchers  used 
multiple fire indices to model how simultaneity will likely change over 
the next 60 years. The study also measured the fires by Geographic Area 
Coordination Centers to see whether some geographic areas might see 
greater increases compared with others.
Simultaneous wildfires were projected to increase in every area of the 
West. Not only were “bad years” projected to increase, but increases in 
simultaneity also led to more intense wildfires. Peak season for 
simultaneous wildfires was projected to become several weeks longer by 
the end of the century.

“The trend was particularly pronounced for the most severe wildfire 
seasons — those that currently occur only every 10 years on average,” 
the National Center for Atmospheric Research said. “In the future, such 
seasons may be expected to occur at least twice as often, and up to 
nearly five times per decade in the northern Rocky Mountains, which was 
the most affected region.”
The findings point toward a risk in an already understaffed and 
under-resourced wildland firefighting force. Because crews are 
transferred across the nation, or sometimes even across nations, to 
battle fires depending on when an area’s season peaks, an increase in 
peak season length could mean major challenges for firefighters and fire 
managers.

“Because firefighting decisions about resource distribution, 
pre-positioning, and suppression strategies consider simultaneity as a 
factor, these results underscore the importance of potential changes in 
simultaneity for fire management decision-making,” the study says.

Steps can reportedly be taken to lessen the future risk of simultaneous 
wildfires, including thinning forests, conducting prescribed burns, and 
increasing numbers of firefighting crews and equipment. But that will 
depend on how long it will take to make those changes.

“The strain on resources created by simultaneous fires can affect the 
ability to conduct prescribed burns and pursue other preventative 
action,” the center said.
https://wildfiretoday.com/2023/11/03/more-simultaneous-large-fires-in-the-next-60-years/



/[ climate catch up - 7 min video ]/
*World Climate Update 🌎 November 4th, 2023*
Regan Parenton
Nov 4, 2023
A quick update of things happening around the world.
Please remember to like, share, and support my content: 
http://bit.ly/3wigHfg

Quote from the abstract:
"Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change 
yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 
0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2."

Resource used for todays presentation: http://climateandeconomy.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYqN3Yc-E-0



/[  a sour dish for those sitting at the table. //"Mix that metaphor!" //]/
*Judge Squashes Lawsuit To Shut Down Wyoming Drilling Permits*
Gov. Mark Gordon and other groups defending Wyoming’s oil and gas 
industries are praising a federal judge for squashing a lawsuit brought 
by environmental groups to negate 900 oil and gas permits.
Leo Wolfson
November 03, 2023
Gov. Mark Gordon and other groups defending Wyoming’s oil and gas 
industries are praising a federal judge for squashing a lawsuit brought 
by environmental groups to negate
Wyoming’s oil and gas industries scored a win in federal court this week.

A federal judge has thrown out a lawsuit filed by the Center for 
Biological Diversity and WildEarth Guardians against the federal 
Department of Interior, state of Wyoming, Petroleum Association of 
Wyoming and others to shut down hundreds of oil and gas drilling permits.

The lawsuit aimed to negate about 900 permits issued since 202 for the 
Powder River Basin in northeast Wyoming.
U.S. District Court Judge Tanya S. Chutkan ruled Wednesday that the 
environmental groups failed to establish any specific harm caused by 
issuing the individual permits. She said the groups failed to “allege a 
cognizable injury” or show standing to sue.

Gov. Mark Gordon hailed the ruling as a win for the state and its legacy 
fossil fuel industries that exposes “extreme environmental groups” that 
aren’t based in Wyoming or have offices in the state.

Had the case been upheld, the applications for permits to drill would 
have been vacated. It also would have impacted more than 3,000 drilling 
applications issued in the Permian Basin in New Mexico.

Petroleum Association of Wyoming President Pete Obermueller is pleased 
with the ruling.

“This is welcome news for an industry that has had to weather an 
onslaught of opposition from those who wish to shut us down,” 
Obermueller said in a statement. “Vacating 900 APDs in Wyoming would 
have wreaked havoc on Wyoming’s economy, our schools and communities 
from Gillette to Pinedale and Cheyenne to Wapiti, which is why PAW 
intervened in this case on behalf of every Wyoming resident.”...
- -
Wyoming is the second largest oil and natural gas producer on federal 
lands and produces much more energy than it consumes.
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/11/03/judge-squashes-lawsuit-to-shut-down-wyoming-drilling-permits/



/[ elephantiasis is catching  ]/
*Kentucky’s Democratic governor would rather not talk about climate change*
In a coal-powered state beset by disasters, Andy Beshear hopes to win 
reelection by avoiding the elephant in the room.
Kentucky’s Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, has been called the 
state’s “consoler-in-chief.”  He’s presided over a period of extreme 
weather in the state, from tornadoes that leveled entire towns in the 
farmlands of western Kentucky, to record flooding that washed out 
thousands of homes in its mountainous Appalachian east. Through it all, 
voters have taken note that the governor has made a habit of personally 
visiting disaster sites and committing to funding their recovery.

But when it comes to the root causes of the state’s weather troubles, 
Beshear is quieter. “I wish I could tell you why we keep getting hit 
here in Kentucky,” said in a media briefing after the floods. “I can’t 
give you the why, but I know what we do in response to it.”

Though climate scientists and environmental advocates have drawn a link 
between the disasters and human-caused climate change, Beshear has 
avoided discussing the topic at length. Now, he’s up for reelection, 
against a Republican cut from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s 
cloth.
On Tuesday, Kentucky voters will be choosing between Beshear and 
challenger Daniel Cameron, the state’s Republican attorney general. 
Beshear, a Democrat, upset staunch Republican (and climate denier) Matt 
Bevin in 2019 in a deep-red state that is still mainly controlled by 
right-wingers at the local levels and in the state legislature. Cameron, 
who has reliably come out against environmental regulation at many 
turns, is appealing for a return to Republican hegemony. As the state 
has been both pummeled by climate disaster and remains politically 
enmeshed with the coal industry, Beshear has toed a careful line, one 
that at times appears self-contradictory, in order to keep his poll 
numbers strong...
- -
Kentucky experienced a 65 percent drop in coal production between 2013 
and 2022, and eastern Kentucky is reeling from the rapid decline of the 
industry and resulting layoffs and bankruptcies. Nonetheless, coal still 
holds cultural significance and exerts economic pull in the state. There 
are still plenty of active coal mines in both east and west, and the 
state is still one of the top five coal-burning states in the country...
- -
When discussing the energy transition, Beshear tends to focus on 
something that might be more tangible to his voters: jobs. News releases 
from the administration center on Kentucky’s record-low unemployment 
rate and tout thousands of potential jobs in the state’s electric 
vehicle sector...
- -
Lane Boldman, the executive director of a bipartisan advocacy group 
called the Kentucky Conservation Committee, says that in red states like 
Kentucky, it’s crucial for Democratic leaders to keep the focus away 
from controversial topics that could provoke a knee-jerk negative 
reaction in voters. “I think it’s a matter of the language you use, 
versus what your actions are on the ground,” Boldman said.

Boldman pointed to recent investments in utility-scale solar on 
abandoned eastern Kentucky strip mines, and new electric vehicle battery 
plants slated for construction across the state, as evidence of progress 
under Beshear’s administration. She also noted that the administration 
is going after separate funding within the Inflation Reduction Act for 
workforce development in the energy-efficiency sector. One report showed 
that Kentucky’s clean energy sector workforce grew faster than that of 
any other industry in the state in 2022. If Beshear wants to win, 
Boldman said, it’s better to keep his head down when it comes to talking 
about climate change.

“The actions he’s taking are, I think, pretty pro-environment for a 
state where the politics are very, very conservative,” she said.
https://grist.org/elections/kentuckys-democratic-governor-would-rather-not-talk-about-climate-change/?utm_campaign=site-share-button-email



/[  Cheap shot? ]/
*Senate Republicans introduce a climate bill — aimed at China*
The legislation aims to protect U.S. companies from cheap imports from 
countries that lack robust greenhouse gas regulations.

A new GOP bill would tack on a fee to products imported from countries 
that have weaker climate pollution regulations than the United States, 
like Chinese-made steel.

By JOSH SIEGEL
11/02/2023
A trio of Republicans led by Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy is introducing 
legislation Thursday that would impose a fee on products imported from 
high greenhouse gas-emitting countries, a move aimed at protecting U.S. 
manufacturers from competition from China and other countries with lax 
environmental standards.
The bill, shared exclusively with POLITICO, represents the first GOP-led 
proposal to inject climate change policy into U.S. trade rules through 
so-called carbon adjustment fees. It’s a strategy that’s gained in 
popularity as industrialized nations that are imposing ever-stricter 
climate regulations at home seek to ensure they don’t drive domestic 
manufacturing to countries that have weaker rules over emissions of the 
pollution that’s warming the planet...
- -
His bill aims to encourage developing countries like India and Vietnam 
to establish “international partnerships” with the U.S. in which they 
impose a similar climate and trade policy in exchange for preferential 
market access for their products to the U.S.

“There is a possibility here for a big bargain,” Cassidy said, arguing a 
pollution fee would fit with bipartisan efforts in Congress to ease 
permitting rules for building energy products domestically.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/02/senate-gop-climate-bill-china-00124909



/[The news archive - from the department of "Could'a, Would'a and 
Should'a"  58 years ago. ]/
/*November 5, 1965 */
November 5, 1965: President Johnson's Science Advisory Committee issues 
a report, "Restoring the Quality of Our Environment," that cites the 
hazards of carbon pollution.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/nov/05/scientists-warned-the-president-about-global-warming-50-years-ago-today 


/[ Make that 58 years ago]/
Scientists warned the US president about global warming 50 years ago today
On 5 November 1965 climate scientists summarized the risks associated 
with rising carbon pollution in a report for Lyndon Baines Johnson
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/nov/05/scientists-warned-the-president-about-global-warming-50-years-ago-today



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