[✔️] November 25, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Antarctic loss Kaitlin Naughten, Arctic loss Greenland, CO2 is 422 ppm, Long term CO2 efx, Nick Breeze book,

Sat Nov 25 12:28:46 EST 2023

/*November 25*//*, 2023*/

/[  Perhaps the most wonderful and wise young climate scientist -- Dr 
Katlin Naughten - gives a stark evaluation of our predicament.  She 
started her ClimateSite.org blog years ago just as she started her PhD. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAtN1XBZBZU - 21 min video discussion 
with Nick Breeze  ]/
*Dr Kaitlin Naughten - Antarctic Ice sheet Loss Acceleration - British 
Antarctic Survey*
Nick Breeze ClimateGenn
Premiered 4 hours ago  ClimateGenn #podcast  produced by Nick Breeze
In this ClimateGenn episode I am speaking with Dr Kaitlin Naughten from 
the British Antarctic Survey about her new research looking at the 
unavoidable sea-level rise from west Antarctica.
            [Subscribe to the ClimateGenn Podcast on Youtube and 
Patreon: https://patreon.com/genncc ]
              [Preorder COPOUT by Nick Breeze: https://copout.genn.cc ]
Although ending fossil fuels is still the main course to pursue, no 
amount of emissions reduction this century, can slow the melt of this 
region of Antarctica.

We discuss the implications, such as abandoning coastal areas, as well 
as learning to accept and respond to the growing climate migrant crisis. 
We also discuss the psychological toll of processing this kind of 
scientific findings.

In the next episode I will be speaking with author and psychoanalyst, 
Sally Weintrobe about her latest work.

As policymakers meet in Dubai for the preCOP discussions, it is with 
great sadness that we note the death of Professor Saleemul Huq on the 
28th October. Saleem has been a huge source of insight for my work over 
the last decade, giving me many interviews that provide the much needed 
perspective of the vulnerable nations in the global south.

As mentioned before, my own book COPOUT is available for preorder and I 
am pleased to say that Saleem’s wise words inform the narrative, 
threading the way from Paris to this years COP in the UAE.

Thank you to all Youtube and Patreon subscribers for supporting the 
channel - with ever more aspects to the climate and ecological crisis 
emerging, your support makes it a difference.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAtN1XBZBZU

- -

/[ Melting ice - scientist site ]/
*Increasing melting of West Antarctic ice shelves may be unavoidable – 
new research*
Oct 23, 2023
*ClimateSight *
Climate science from the inside
Kaitlin Naughten, British Antarctic Survey; Jan De Rydt, Northumbria 
University, Newcastle, and Paul Holland, British Antarctic Survey

Originally published at The Conversation based on research published in 
Nature Climate Change
The rate at which the warming Southern Ocean melts the West Antarctic 
ice sheet will speed up rapidly over the course of this century, 
regardless of how much emissions fall in coming decades, our new 
research suggests. This ocean-driven melting is expected to increase 
sea-level rise, with consequences for coastal communities around the world.

The Antarctic ice sheet, the world’s largest volume of land-based ice, 
is a system of interconnected glaciers comprised of snowfall that 
remains year-round. Coastal ice shelves are the floating edges of this 
ice sheet which stabilise the glaciers behind them. The ocean melts 
these ice shelves from below, and if melting increases and an ice shelf 
thins, the speed at which these glaciers discharge fresh water into the 
ocean increases too and sea levels rise.

In West Antarctica, particularly the Amundsen Sea, this process has been 
underway for decades. Ice shelves are thinning, glaciers are flowing 
faster towards the ocean and the ice sheet is shrinking. While ocean 
temperature measurements in this region are limited, modelling suggests 
it may have warmed as a result of climate change.

We chose to model the Amundsen Sea because it is the most vulnerable 
sector of the ice sheet. We used a regional ocean model to find out how 
ice-shelf melting will change here between now and 2100. How much 
melting can be prevented by reducing carbon emissions and slowing the 
rate of climate change – and how much is now unavoidable, no matter what 
we do?

*Rapid change is locked in*
We used the UK’s national supercomputer ARCHER2 to run many different 
simulations of the 21st century, totalling over 4,000 years of ocean 
warming and ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea.

We considered different trajectories for fossil fuel burning, from the 
best-case scenario where global warming is limited to 1.5°C in line with 
the Paris Agreement, to the worst, in which coal, oil and gas use is 
uncontrolled. We also considered the influence of natural variations in 
the climate, such as the timing of events such as El Niño.

The results are worrying. In all simulations there is a rapid increase 
over the course of this century in the rate of ocean warming and 
ice-shelf melting. Even the best-case scenario in which warming halts at 
1.5°C, something that is considered ambitious by many experts, entails a 
threefold increase in the historical rate of warming and melting.
https://climatesight.files.wordpress.com/2023/10/warming_melting_trend_map.png?w=2045
What’s more, there is little to no difference between the scenarios up 
to 2045. Ocean warming and ice-shelf melting in the 1.5°C scenario is 
statistically the same as in a mid-range scenario, which is closer to 
what existing pledges to reduce fossil fuel use over the coming decades 
would produce.
The worst-case scenario shows more melting than the others, but only 
from around mid-century onwards, and many experts think this amount of 
future fossil fuel burning is unrealistic anyway.

The results imply that we are now committed to rapid ocean warming in 
the Amundsen Sea until at least 2100, regardless of international 
policies on fossil fuels.
The increases in warming and melting are the result of ocean currents 
strengthening and driving more warm water from the deep ocean towards 
the shallower ice shelves along the coast. Other studies have suggested 
this process is behind the ice shelf thinning measured by satellites.

*How much will the sea level rise?*
Melting ice shelves are a major cause of sea-level rise, but not the 
whole story. We can’t put a number on how much sea levels will rise 
without also simulating the flow of Antarctic glaciers and the rate of 
snow accumulating on the ice sheet, which our model didn’t include.

But we have every reason to believe that increased ice-shelf melting in 
this region will cause the rate at which sea levels are rising to speed up.

The West Antarctic ice sheet is already contributing substantially to 
global sea-level rise and is losing about 80 billion tonnes of ice a 
year. It contains enough ice to cause up to 5 metres of sea-level rise, 
but we don’t know how much of it will melt, and how quickly. Our 
colleagues around the world are working hard to answer this question.

*Courage and hope*
There are some consequences of climate change that can no longer be 
avoided, no matter how much fossil fuel use falls. Substantial melting 
of West Antarctica up to 2100 may now be one of them.

How do you tell a bad news story? The conventional wisdom is that you’re 
supposed to give people hope: to say that there’s a disaster behind one 
door, but we can avoid it if only we choose a different one. What do you 
do when your science tells you that all doors lead to the same disaster?

Kate Marvel, an atmospheric scientist, said that when it comes to 
climate change, “we need courage, not hope … Courage is the resolve to 
do well without the assurance of a happy ending”. In this case, courage 
means shifting our attention to the longer term.
The future will not end in 2100, even if most people reading this will 
no longer be around. Our simulations of the 1.5°C scenario show 
ice-shelf melting starting to plateau by the end of the century, 
suggesting that further changes in the 22nd century and beyond may still 
be preventable. Reducing sea-level rise after 2100, or even slowing it 
down, could save many coastal cities.

Courage means accepting the need to adapt, protecting coastal 
communities where it’s possible to do so, and rebuilding or abandoning 
them where it’s not. By predicting future sea-level rise in advance, 
we’ll have time to plan for it – rather than wait until the ocean is on 
our doorstep.
Kaitlin Naughten, Ocean-Ice Modeller, British Antarctic Survey; Jan De 
Rydt, Associate Professor of Polar Glaciology and Oceanography, 
Northumbria University, Newcastle, and Paul Holland, Ocean and Ice 
Scientist, British Antarctic Survey

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative 
Commons license. Read the original article.
https://climatesight.org/2023/10/23/increasing-melting-of-west-antarctic-ice-shelves-may-be-unavoidable-new-research/

/[ now for the Greenland Arctic report - 4 min video ]/
*Changes in the Arctic Ice Are Happening Very Fast*
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Sep 3, 2023
Arctic change is so important to track, as the change in the Arctic is 
the fastest.

Created by: Polar Climate Ambassador Project, Janice Yohannan

The Polar Climate Ambassadors are a group of high school students from 
diverse backgrounds who focus on polar and climate system science, while 
developing science communications to share with their peers and communities.

GreenDrill is an ambitious science project that is drilling though the 
Greenland ice sheet to the bedrock below to forecast the future of this 
fast-melting ice sheet and our warming planet.⁠
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24GmK-481jc

/[ facing reality of 422.36 parts per million -  5.06ppm more than last 
year.  I was born into a world that was 310.7 ]/
*CO2 readings from Mauna Loa show failure to combat climate change*
Daily atmospheric carbon dioxide data from Hawaiian volcano more than 
double last decade’s annual average
Just above this column on the weather page of the Guardian’s print 
edition is the daily atmospheric carbon dioxide readings from Mauna Loa 
in Hawaii, the acid test of how the world is succeeding in combatting 
climate change. A week before the 28th annual meeting of the United 
Nations Framework Climate Change Convention opens in oil-rich Dubai, it 
makes depressing reading.

At the time of writing it is 422.36 parts per million. That is 5.06ppm 
more than the same day last year. That rise in 12 months is probably the 
largest ever recorded – more than double the last decade’s annual average.

To give some perspective, exactly a decade ago the concentration was 
395.64ppm. Then the scientific community worried about the effect on the 
weather if we were to pass the 400 mark. Now we know: the result is 
catastrophic heatwaves, storms, droughts, floods and rapidly increasing 
and unstoppable sea level rise.

The figures underline the fact that after 27 annual meetings of the 
convention, all the efforts of nearly 200 member states to tackle the 
menace of the climate crisis have been a failure, so far. The situation 
continues to get worse ever more rapidly. There is no sign of carbon 
dioxide levels going down, let alone reaching the “safe” level of 350ppm.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/nov/24/co2-readings-from-mauna-loa-show-failure-to-combat-climate-change 

/[ see the levels when you were born -- my grandparents lived in 285 ppm .]/
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/atmospheric-concentration-of-carbon-dioxide-5#tab-chart_5_filters=%7B%22rowFilters%22%3A%7B%7D%3B%22columnFilters%22%3A%7B%22pre_config_polutant%22%3A%5B%22CO2%20(ppm)%22%5D%7D%7D

/[ Ask Google and it's AI ]/
*What are the long term effects of CO2 exposure?*
Recover from Carbon Monoxide Poisoning's Long-Term Effects
The most common symptoms of chronic CO poisoning include persistent 
headaches, lightheadedness, fatigue, memory problems, nausea, hearing 
disorders, sleep disorders, abdominal pain, diarrhea, and vomiting.
- -
*What happens if you breathe in carbon dioxide for too long?*
Symptoms of mild CO2 exposure may include headache and drowsiness. At 
higher levels,rapid breathing, confusion, increased cardiac output, 
elevated blood pressure and increased arrhythmias may occur. Breathing 
oxygen depleted air caused by extreme CO2 concentrations can lead to 
death by suffocation.
- -
Carbon dioxide is a pollutant found in indoor and outdoor air. Indoors, 
CO2 is mainly produced through the respiration (breathing) of occupants, 
but can also come from: cigarette smoking. unvented or poorly vented 
fuel-burning appliances.Mar 19, 2021
- -
In contrast to acute poisoning, chronic CO poisoning refers to cases 
where patients are exposed multiple times to CO, usually at low 
concentrations.

The most common symptoms of chronic CO poisoning include persistent 
headaches, lightheadedness, fatigue, memory problems, nausea, hearing 
disorders, sleep disorders, abdominal pain, diarrhea, and vomiting. Each 
time a patient is exposed to CO, they will develop one or more of these 
symptoms. However, because most are nonspecific symptoms, CO poisoning 
is difficult to recognize and is frequently mistaken for a flu-like 
disease or a stomach bug.

/[ ClimateGenn Nick Breeze ]/
BOOK: COPOUT
*‘COPOUT – How governments have failed the people on climate’*
by Nick Breeze
My book COPOUT will be published in March 2024. COPOUT is a gonzo tour 
of eight UN COPs from COP21 in Paris (2015) to COP28 UAE (2023). It is 
packed with expert commentary including on the ground interviews with a 
wide range of experts that I have recorded over the course of the last 
fifteen years (see list below).
 From the jubilant signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 to the 
backward policies of the Trump administration a year later, COPOUT 
uncovers the widespread global hypocrisy shown by world leaders. Even 
today the majority of developed nations publicly describe themselves as 
climate leaders, while rubber stamping policies that make climate 
breakdown worse.

As we peel back the layers of lies and wasted opportunities, we see that 
the obfuscation by corrupt interests dates all the way back to the Rio 
Earth Summit in 1992. That is three decades of climate policy failure 
that now leave us dangerously exposed in a rapidly degraded world.

I interview the scientists and activists who travel to the COPs in 
desperation, demanding change and who find their numbers growing in 
strength and voice. The decline in trust in politicians, who make great 
promises but never deliver on the changes needed, is what is driving a 
global movement reimagining the planet we share.

COPOUT presents many of the most respected voices in the world on this 
issue and spells out the challenges we face and what needs to be done in 
plain language.
Available for preorder now on Amazon.
https://genn.cc/copout-nick-breeze/

/[The news archive -  ]/
/*November 25, 2014 */
October 25, 2014: The New York Times reports:
"While politicians are increasingly willing to include environmental 
messages in their campaigns, many at the national level still steer 
clear of the politically charged topic of climate change. But in 
communities across the country where the effects are lapping at the 
doorsteps of residents, pragmatism often trumps politics, and candidates 
as well as elected officials across the political spectrum are embracing 
the issue.

"Some local Republican officials in Florida and elsewhere say they can 
no longer follow the lead of state and national party leaders like 
Senator Marco Rubio and Gov. Rick Scott, who have publicly questioned 
whether human activity has had an effect on climate change. (Though both 
have recently taken a more vague 'I’m not a scientist' stance.) The 
Center for American Progress Action Fund, a left-leaning advocacy group 
in Washington, tracks the statements of American political figures on 
climate change and reports that more than 58 percent of Republicans in 
Congress have denied a link between human activity and global warming.

"But in the Florida Keys, George Neugent, a Republican county 
commissioner, said that while people might disagree about what to do 
about climate change, the effects of flooding and hurricanes were less 
ambiguous. 'Clearly rising tides are going to affect us,' he said."
- -
“I don’t think we want to be the party that believes in dirty air and 
dirty water,” Mr. Brainard said, noting that the Environmental 
Protection Agency was founded under President Richard M. Nixon, a 
Republican. Despite the broad agreement among scientists on climate 
change, he added, “the problem in D.C. is that a lot of people are 
making a lot of money keeping people mad at each other.”

Bob Inglis, a former Republican congressman from South Carolina who is 
working to get members of his party to accept climate change and 
identify solutions, said his argument was not a hard sell for local 
officials “who are in the business of fixing things, not just talking 
about them.” His hope, he added, is that the viewpoint “eventually 
percolates up to the people making grand pronouncements.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/25/science/pragmatism-on-climate-change-trumps-politics-at-local-level-across-us.html

=== Other climate news sources ===========================================
**Inside Climate News*
Newsletters
We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. Every day or 
once a week, our original stories and digest of the web’s top headlines 
deliver the full story, for free.
https://insideclimatenews.org/
---------------------------------------
**Climate Nexus* https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*
Delivered straight to your inbox every morning, Hot News summarizes the 
most important climate and energy news of the day, delivering an 
unmatched aggregation of timely, relevant reporting. It also provides 
original reporting and commentary on climate denial and pro-polluter 
activity that would otherwise remain largely unexposed.    5 weekday
=================================
*Carbon Brief Daily https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up*
Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon Brief 
sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to thousands of 
subscribers around the world. The email is a digest of the past 24 hours 
of media coverage related to climate change and energy, as well as our 
pick of the key studies published in the peer-reviewed journals.
more at https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief
==================================
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