[✔️] October 12, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Soon too hot, Yale migrations, Refugee programs, Rupert Reed, FEWS food stress, Facing collapse, UN women, 2004 Bush - Kerry debate

[Richard Pauli]

/*October 12*//*, 2023*/

/[ yes Newsweek ]/
*Middle America Will Soon Be Too Hot to Live in, Scientists Predict*
BY ROBYN WHITE
10/10/23
New research has found that Middle America could soon be too hot for 
humans to live in.

The section of the United States from Florida to New York and Houston to 
Chicago could get so hot that humans would not be able to withstand the 
heat if the planet continues to warm past 3 degrees Celsius (37.4 
degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, according to a study 
published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

At the Earth's current level of warming, the U.S. will experience heat 
waves, but they will not surpass human limitations— though some parts of 
the world will. During the study, scientists looked at five possible 
warming scenarios if the Earth were to warm beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius 
(34.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.

"Among the five scenarios, the intermediate one is most likely and will 
lead to a warming of 2.1-3.5 degrees Celsius with a median at 2.7 
degrees Celsius (compared with pre-industrial period) by the end of this 
century," Qinqin Kong, a co-author on the study and a doctoral candidate 
at Purdue University, told Newsweek.

"Recent observations showed that we might do slightly better with a 
warming between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius. At 2 degrees Celsius warming, 
only relatively small areas over Pakistan will have over 240 hours of 
uncompensable heat stress each year, which amounts to one month if you 
count eight hours for a day," he said. "This is surely a problem since 
that region is densely populated. But I wouldn't expect heat stress to 
make any place inhabitable at this level of warming."

At 3 degrees Celsius warming, a large part of the Indus Valley and 
coastal region of the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea could possibly see 
over two months and even more than three months of uncompensable heat 
stress on average every year, Kong said.

"Al Hudaydah, the second-largest city of Yemen, this number reaches up 
to 160 days. With uncompensable heat of season length on average each 
year, these regions will become inhabitable, or dramatic lifestyle 
changes (e.g., staying in the air conditioning room most of the time) 
are necessary to survive. As 3 degrees Celsius is within the envelope of 
the most likely warming scenarios, the aforementioned situations are 
quite likely to happen in my opinion," Kong said.

Humans can only withstand a certain amount of heat and humidity before 
it becomes a serious problem for their health. Prolonged exposure to 
extreme heat can cause heat stroke or in severe cases, even heart attacks.

As human-induced climate change continues, the Earth will only continue 
to warm. Scientists believe it could be only a matter of time before the 
planet reaches a point beyond the point that a human could withstand.

Deals like the Paris Agreement aim to minimize warming. Since the start 
of the Industrial Revolution—when humans first began to burn fossil 
fuels in large numbers—the Earth has warmed by around 1 degrees Celsius, 
or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.

There are some instances where incredibly hot temperatures have already 
started to affect humans. Scientists reiterate that while models used in 
the study are good at predicting events, they do not predict specific 
events. Events like this can include the Oregon heatwave that killed 
more than 700 people in 2021.

It also does not seem possible that humans will be able to adapt to 
these rapidly rising temperatures.

"Evolutionary or genetic adaptation to a changing climate takes many, 
many generations to develop, much longer than the timescales associated 
with our current changing climate," Daniel Vecellio, who performed the 
study as a postdoctoral fellow in the Center for Healthy Aging at Penn 
State University and postdoctoral scholar at George Mason University's 
Virginia Climate Center, told Newsweek.

"Based on human's current physiological capabilities, it may be possible 
for those who live in the regions which are chronically exposed to 
extreme heat (e.g., South Asia, the Middle East) to develop better 
biological protection to the heat, but there is still a limit to what 
they'll be able to withstand. Those living in the mid-latitudes will 
likely not be exposed to this extreme heat on a consistent enough basis 
to build up any large or long-lasting physiological protection."

Vecellio said that adaptation for most people will be in the 
technological sense, such as the use of air conditions. Behavioral 
adaptations may also be made, for example, the change of working hours 
to avoid the hottest parts of the day...
- -
"I don't think that it was shocking that with continued warming, we 
would reach these lower wet-bulb temperature thresholds in more regions 
across the globe more frequently, but some of the magnitudes of the 
yearly exposure to uncompensable heat stress were sobering to see," 
Vecellio said.

"Of course, one would imagine that the summer season would see longer 
periods of threshold exceedance—but some of the Middle Eastern cities 
having over 1,000 or 2,000 hours of exposure every year in a 4-degree 
Celcius warmer world, which, if spread out evenly in 8-hour increments, 
would mean up to 300 days a year of this seemingly fatal heat stress if 
no precautions or technological adaptation were to take place—was a 
distressing result to stomach."
https://www.newsweek.com/middle-america-too-hot-live-scientists-predict-1833481



/[ YALE looks at climate migrations and climate mobility - video ]
/*Navigating the Future: Harnessing Data-Driven Insights on Climate 
Mobility to Build a Common Agenda*
Yale University
Oct 11, 2023
The seminar by David Lönnberg and Sarah Rosengaertner unpacks the 
efforts of the Global Centre for Climate Mobility (GCCM) to further 
climate mobility knowledge and solutions. They underscore the importance 
of data, modeling, and stakeholder engagement to support proactive 
adaptation strategies for communities confronting the climate crisis. 
This work is part of the ongoing proposals and development agendas of 
the regional climate mobility initiatives, 
(https://climatemobility.org/initiativ....

David Lönnberg serves as the Senior Advisor for Youth and Outreach at 
the GCCM where he supports the Africa Climate Mobility Initiative 
(ACMI), the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Initiative (GCCMI), and 
the Rising Nations Initiative (RNI), as well as the development of the 
GCCM’s Solutions Lab.
Sarah Rosengaertner currently serves as the Lead for Knowledge and 
Practice of the GCCM where she oversees the efforts of the Africa 
Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI) and the Greater Caribbean Climate 
Mobility Initiative (GCCMI), as well as the development of the GCCM’s 
Global Knowledge Hub with the Columbia University Climate School.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9VCRTW6Hus

-  -

/[  Yale PRFDHR -- Program on Refugees, Forced Displacement, and 
Humanitarian Responses (PRFDHR) ]
/*Refugee Program, Yale MacMillan Center*
@refugeeprogramyalemacmilla351329
The Program on Refugees, Forced Displacement, and Humanitarian Responses 
(PRFDHR) is an intellectual hub for research, teaching, and policy 
recommendations that takes a people-centered approach to the refugee 
experience – from internal displacement at home, to the transit 
experience inside and outside the camp, to challenges of resettlement 
and integration. Acting as a catalyst for innovation, it is open to new 
and unconventional ideas of research or public outreach. Rigorous, 
inter-disciplinary, evidence-based research is being conducted and 
linked to policy and practice.
refugee.macmillan.yale.edu and 2 more links
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC93yjOvh6nwSdpacP3FnTeQ



/[  Local or Global ---  ]
/ *Staking Your Life On It: All In For A Climate, All In For A Future | 
Rupert Read*
Rupert Read
Oct 10, 2023
A climate means a stable regime of weather. This is what is now under 
threat, in the new abnormal. In this recent major talk, Rupert Read 
outlines why he thinks the future looks dire - and why he is all in for 
making it decent, desirable, even delightful… Rupert’s talk is followed 
by Satish Kumar’s response, and they then have an engaging conversation 
about the power of positive and ‘negative’ emotions to bring about 
transformative change.

Across the UK in communities, workplaces and wherever they have power, 
people from all walks of life are organising the kinds of serious 
climate action that will make governments take notice. The Climate 
Majority Project is a rallying place for citizen climate action. We help 
projects to grow, get funding, and connect with as many willing hands as 
possible. https://ClimateMajorityProject.com
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J475CVG-1sQ



/[ Food stresses early warning group discussion video ]/
*FEWS NET El Niño Briefing*
Aug 31, 2023
*El Niño and Early Warning Systems for Acute Food Insecurity*

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) factors climate 
variability and extremes, including those associated with El Niño, into 
monthly analyses that generate current and forecast estimates of people 
in need of emergency food assistance according to global standards 
defined by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 
Scale.  This is done through scenario development, which includes the 
adoption of working assumptions about current and projected climatic 
conditions.

FEWS NET science partners at NOAA, NASA, USGS, and universities provide 
food security analysts with the agro-climatic monitoring and forecasting 
they need to assess impacts on households' means of accessing food and 
income.  FEWS NET science partners take 8-month forecasts of the state 
of the global climate and express them in terms of expected rainfall 
anomalies and associated variations in crop yield, pasture conditions, 
and water availability for livestock.  FEWS NET began factoring El Niño 
into its food security assessments in January 2023, when the phenomenon 
first appeared in global climate forecasts.  Going forward, FEWS NET 
will monitor and continuously update its El Niño outlook.  At climate 
scale, each month, new seasonal forecast model runs from WMO Long Range 
Forecast centers are interpreted for evolving patterns of precipitation 
and temperature.  Additionally, NOAA provides a regular weather hazards 
briefing to track unfolding seasons at a weekly cadence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeDV8LJOVfY



/[ Yikes !  An 11 minute introduction to a 12 minute discussion  - video ]/
*"Don't let yourself fall out of Love with Life." How shall we comport 
ourselves facing Collapse?*
The Poetry of Predicament
Oct 10, 2023
This clip of Nora Bateson, Daniel Schmachtenberger and Nate Hagens is 
but one small part of our Sense Making Course in the Living Resilience 
Online Community Space.

These three remarkable thought-leaders explore responses to Dahr 
Jamail's famous closing words in his brilliant book, The End of Ice...

How shall we comport ourselves as we face the realities of human-caused 
collapse of both Earth and Human Systems?

More specifically, they recap some of the more daunting truths we are 
facing in these times... and each of them, in their own way, suggests 
how we might presence ourselves in a loving way, in a way that promotes 
deep relationship, no matter what our future may hold.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TioEe400sUs




/[  - too often forgotten ]
/ *Climate crisis is ‘not gender neutral’: UN calls for more policy 
focus on women*
Only a third of countries with climate crisis plans include access to 
sexual, maternal and newborn health services, UNFPA report finds
Sarah Johnson
Tue 10 Oct 2023
Only a third of countries include sexual and reproductive health in 
their national plans to tackle the climate crisis, the UN has warned.

Of the 119 countries that have published plans, only 38 include access 
to contraception, maternal and newborn health services and just 15 make 
any reference to violence against women, according to a report published 
by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and Queen Mary University of London on 
Tuesday.

The report is the first to examine whether climate plans refer to sexual 
and reproductive health.

It calls on more countries to recognise the disproportionate impact of 
the climate crisis on women and girls, and for more action.

Rising temperatures have been linked to poorer maternal health and 
complications during pregnancy, such as gestational diabetes. Extreme 
heat has been associated with triggering earlier deliveries and an 
increase in stillbirths.

The report said the climate crisis exacerbated existing inequalities. In 
east and southern Africa, for example, tropical cyclones have damaged 
health facilities, disrupting access to maternal health services and 
helping spread waterborne diseases such as cholera.

Hurricanes and droughts increase the risks of gender-based violence and 
child marriage, it added, as families under stress are less able to 
support daughters and seek to marry them off.

Angela Baschieri, an adviser on population and development for UNFPA and 
one of the report’s authors, said: “If we look at the plan of action for 
women and girls, national plans show there is more work that could be done.

“We know climate change disproportionately affects women and is not 
gender neutral so there is a need to address those gaps and impacts.”

The report highlighted the countries that are taking action. Paraguay, 
Seychelles and Benin have specified the need to build climate-resilient 
health systems allowing women to give birth safely and access health 
services.

Nine countries, including El Salvador, Sierra Leone and Guinea, have 
included policies or interventions to address gender-based violence.

Only Dominica has mentioned the need for contraception, despite evidence 
of disruptions to family-planning services during climate-related disasters.

Vietnam is the only country to acknowledge that child marriage occurs 
more often during times of crises as families seek to reduce their 
economic burden (for example, marriages of girls aged 11 to 14 increased 
by half in Bangladesh in years with a heatwave lasting a month).

“Climate is setting us back on the fight to gender equality. Our point 
would be to make sure that climate policy recognises the differential 
impact on women and takes it into account in the design of policy,” said 
Baschieri.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/oct/10/climate-crisis-is-not-gender-neutral-un-calls-for-more-policy-focus-on-women


/[The news archive - looking back at one campaign debate ]/
/*October 12, 2004 */
October 12, 2004: In a sentence that speaks volumes, Wall Street Journal 
columnist Brendan Miniter, discussing the October 8 debate between 
President Bush and Democratic opponent John Kerry, observes:

    On the one issue in the debate in which Democrats hold the natural
    advantage, the environment, Mr. Kerry came out on top. He attacked
    Mr. Bush's policies, saying they have "Orwellian" names like "Clear
    Skies" but in reality harm the environment.

    The president was left to insist that the air is cleaner than it was
    four years ago. It's too bad he didn't find a way to deflate fears
    about his administration by noting that most of the promising ideas
    on the environment are percolating from free-market groups like The
    Property & Environmental Research Center. PERC, in Bozeman, Mont.,
    has been on the forefront for decades on finding ways to use
    property rights to protect the environment and has seen some of its
    ideas become policy.
    - -
    Since Sept. 11, 2001, Mr. Bush has rightly been seen as a war
    president and the war on terror and how it should be fought remains
    the overarching issue of this campaign. But it's a mistake to
    discount Mr. Bush and the popularity of his domestic agenda. The
    media will never give him the win unless he soundly puts Mr. Kerry
    away--especially when journalists start out assuming that Americans
    really want the Democrat's policies. But looking over last week's
    performance it's hard to say Mr. Bush didn't do well. It turns out
    that the one advantage of being a big spender is that it is hard to
    be tagged as inattentive to people's needs.

http://web.archive.org/web/20041120230653/http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/bminiter/?id=110005744



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