[✔️] October 26, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | How Americans Feel, First Dog cartoon, Risk tipping points, Copout book, This Century Sea Ice, Poison Ivy, Year 2000

[Richard Pauli]

/*October 26*//*, 2023*/

/[  NPR text or a 2 min audio - survey says how Americans feel 
(scientists told us how they felt long ago)]
/ *Here's how Americans feel about climate change*
October 25, 20232
Rebecca Hersher

Most Americans say that climate change is harming people in the United 
States, and that climate impacts will get worse over their lifetime, 
according to a new national survey by the Pew Research Center.

Nearly 3 in 4 people said that climate change is hurting people in the 
U.S. today, according to the survey of nearly 9,000 adults.

Indeed, this year has seen a record-breaking number of weather disasters 
that caused at least $1 billion in damage each, including the 
catastrophic wildfires in Maui, a hurricane in Florida and multiple 
deadly floods.

This is the first time the Pew Research Center, which conducts national 
surveys on a range of salient topics in American life, has included such 
detailed questions about how Americans feel about the current and future 
impacts of climate change.

Most of those surveyed say they expect climate-driven disasters to 
intensify in the future.

"The majority of Americans see some fairly severe environmental harms as 
likely to happen over the next 30 years," says Alec Tyson of the Pew 
Research Center, who helped lead the survey. "For example, 73% say they 
think a growing number of plant and animal species will go extinct, 61% 
say they think heat waves will cause large numbers of people to die in 
the U.S. every year and 58% think rising sea levels will force large 
numbers of people in the U.S. to move away from the coast."

Those sentiments are backed up by scientific research, which has long 
warned that greenhouse gas emissions would threaten Americans' health, 
finances and very lives.

Reducing fossil fuel consumption dramatically and immediately will help 
avoid even more dangerous warming in the future. Most Americans expect 
renewable energy to get more ubiquitous in the coming years, the survey 
finds, with 57% saying that they expect renewable energy will produce 
most of the energy in the U.S. in 30 years.

In 2022, renewable energy, including wind and solar, accounted for a 
little less than a quarter of American electricity generation, but 
investment in renewable energy is accelerating.

*People aren't necessarily worried about their own communities*
One thing the survey suggests is that there is tension between 
Americans' perception that climate change impacts are getting worse, and 
their understanding of how those impacts might occur in their own 
communities.

Although most respondents say climate change impacts will be more severe 
in the next 30 years, only 41% think climate change will make their own 
community a worse place to live over that same time period. And just as 
many say they don't think climate change will make much difference in 
their community.

That dissonance also shows up in another finding from the survey: the 
majority of Americans say the Southwest, coastal Florida and Southern 
California are going to become worse areas to live over the next 30 
years because of climate change. Yet those regions include some of the 
fastest-growing places in the country.

*Young people more concerned than older people*
Younger people are more concerned about climate change, and are more 
likely to be calling on those in power to act, the survey finds.

"Young adults are especially likely to think harm will increase in the 
United States. Nearly 8 and 10 say that, over the course of their 
lifetime," says Tyson. Young people are also more likely to say that 
their community will be a worse place to live over the next 30 years 
because of climate change, the survey finds.

That concern may spur young people to donate money to climate-related 
causes, contact elected officials about climate legislation or attend a 
climate rally, the survey suggests. Nearly one third of people 18 to 29 
years old say they've participated in climate activism in the last year, 
which is nearly twice the rate of people 65 and older.
*
Americans are sad, anxious and frustrated when they think about climate 
change*
The survey asked people about the feelings they have when they read news 
stories about climate change or encounter climate advocacy in their lives.
https://www.npr.org/2023/10/25/1208016669/heres-how-americans-feel-about-climate-change

- -

/[ Sarcasm in the Guardian ]/
*Climate change is finally solved! We can just let nature take its course*
First Dog on the Moon
Wed 25 Oct 2023
It seems if you experience climate disaster you are much more likely to 
believe in climate disaster
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/25/climate-change-is-finally-solved-we-can-just-let-nature-take-its-course



/[ _Risk tipping points _from Nick Breeze ClimateGenn ]/
*UN University Report on Risk Tipping Points, 'Interconnected Disaster 
Risks' with Dr Jack O'Connor*
Nick Breeze ClimateGenn
Octoober 25, 2023
ClimateGenn #podcast  produced by Nick Breeze
In this climateGenn episode I am speaking with Dr Jack O’Connor, at the 
UN University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security. Jack is 
the author of the Interconnected Disaster Risks Report that is looking 
at tipping points impacting human security and the Earth System. These 
so-called Risk Tipping Points are showing signs of tipping and in this 
interview we discuss how humanity can respond.
Join ClimateGenn to get full episodes early either on Youtube or on 
Patreon: https://patreon.com/genncc
The report is available for download below, as well as a link to the 
main website with detailed insights into a number of Risk Tipping Points.
Interconnected Disaster Risks Report download: 
https://interconnectedrisks.org/download
Main website URL: https://interconnectedrisks.org/
Find out more about ‘COPOUT - How governments have failed the people on 
climate’ by Nick Breeze, an overview plus many of the voices who 
feature: https://copout.genn.cc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDbS4NwSYhc

- -

/[  Climate Glenn ]/
BOOK: COPOUT
*‘COPOUT – How governments have failed the people on climate’*
by Nick Breeze

My book COPOUT will be published in March 2024. COPOUT is a gonzo tour 
of eight UN COPs from COP21 in Paris (2015) to COP28 UAE (2023). It is 
packed with expert commentary including on the ground interviews with a 
wide range of experts that I have recorded over the course of the last 
fifteen years (see list below).

 From the jubilant signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 to the 
backward policies of the Trump administration a year later, COPOUT 
uncovers the widespread global hypocrisy shown by world leaders. Even 
today the majority of developed nations publicly describe themselves as 
climate leaders, while rubber stamping policies that make climate 
breakdown worse.

As we peel back the layers of lies and wasted opportunities, we see that 
the obfuscation by corrupt interests dates all the way back to the Rio 
Earth Summit in 1992. That is three decades of climate policy failure 
that now leave us dangerously exposed in a rapidly degraded world.

I interview the scientists and activists who travel to the COPs in 
desperation, demanding change and who find their numbers growing in 
strength and voice. The decline in trust in politicians, who make great 
promises but never deliver on the changes needed, is what is driving a 
global movement reimagining the planet we share.

COPOUT presents many of the most respected voices in the world on this 
issue and spells out the challenges we face and what needs to be done in 
plain language.
https://genn.cc/copout-nick-breeze/



/[ Paul Beckwith -- This century - dire reading of paper ]/
*Accelerated Global Warming from Antarctic Sea Ice Collapse: Albedo, 
Latitude, Snow Cover on Ice…*
Paul Beckwith
Oct 25, 2023
In my last video I chatted about how the presently missing 2 to 2.5 
million square km of Antarctic Sea Ice can be compared to a Blue Ocean 
Event (BOE) in the Arctic Ocean, and how it relates to increased solar 
absorption, albedo feedbacks, etc.

I made comparisons to the Pistone paper where missing Arctic sea ice 
relative to the 1979 baseline would lead to a forcing of 0.71 W/m2 
equivalent to 1 trillion tons of CO2 equivalent to 25 years of global 
warming at todays emission rates.

In this video I chat about additional factors and details such as the 
latitudinal effect. Specifically, it is important to note that the 
missing Antarctic sea ice is much further from the pole (at mostly about 
60S latitude) as compared to missing Arctic sea ice in a Blue Ocean 
Event which would be located between 90N and 75N latitudes. That’s a 
huge difference on radiative forcing.

Ice missing in a BOE in the Arctic would only be a couple million square 
km (like that presently missing around Antarctica) and the BOE would be 
no sea ice in the Arctic for say the month of September. We are there 
already for missing Antarctic sea ice.

The Pistone paper scenario is much more stringent than the BOE scenario. 
Pistone talks about roughly 10 million square km of sea ice missing in 
the Arctic over the northern hemisphere summer interval. That’s 4x what 
is now missing in Antarctica. However, the missing Arctic ice is at much 
higher latitudes than the missing Antarctic ice, so the radiative 
heating effect will reduce that factor of 4x to what? 2x? Equal? I’m not 
sure yet, and nobody else knows either. I’m sure a peer reviewed paper 
will come out on this, but it will probably take a year or two. 
Meanwhile, we will find out from what happens over the next year or so.

Another huge factor is snow cover. Freshly grown sea ice without snow 
cover may only reflect 50% of incoming sunlight, whereas with snow cover 
on top of the sea ice its more like 90%. Snow cover on top of the sea 
ice is likely at the end of the winter season, but less likely at the 
start of the winter season. Is snow cover on the sea ice compatible in 
both hemispheres?

Another difference is that with a BOE in the Arctic we will likely have 
a collapse of Arctic snow cover on the surrounding land surfaces. This 
lack of snow cover is a huge factor in Arctic Temperature Amplification, 
roughly equal to the loss of Arctic sea ice Albedo effect. Of course in 
the Southern Hemisphere around Antarctica there is no loss of snow cover 
on the land effect, since the only land is covered by massive ice sheets 
already.

Another factor is the angle of sunlight on the ice surface. Not only is 
the Antarctic sea ice lost at much further latitudes from the pole (60S) 
where it is much warmer compared to the Arctic sea ice (located between 
90N and 75N) where it is obviously much colder, but the Sun is much 
higher in the sky, so albedo is much lower for the Antarctic sea ice 
loss case. Also, the lost Antarctic sea ice is out in the open ocean, 
while the lost Arctic sea ice is on the Arctic Ocean surrounded by lower 
latitude land masses.

Clouds are also crucial. Pistone looks at cloud effects on the Arctic 
case, and the 0.71 W/m2 number assumes no major change to cloud cover. 
What happens with cloud cover in the Southern Hemisphere over the 
regions where 2.5 million square km of sea ice is missing?

Given all these differences between the poles, my best guess gut feeling 
is that the missing Antarctic sea ice lost will have an overall warming 
that is huge, and felt around the planet, and notch up global 
temperatures  as much as the Pistone paper models with missing Arctic 
Sea Ice.

Only time will tell if my best guess gut feeling is roughly correct or 
significantly out to lunch. Not much time, maybe a year or two, or when 
a peer reviewed study comes out that incorporated all these relevant 
factors that I have discussed:)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5P1W4TrczQ



/[ Poison Ivy -  is an object of global warming change --//on WBUR 
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2023/10/23/poison-ivy-climate-change]/

//*CLIMATE CHANGE HAS ALTERED POISON IVY LEAVES IN PENNSYLVANIA*
KARA HOLSOPPLE
SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
This story is part of our series, Wild Pennsylvania.

A new study uses museum specimens to find out how the leaves of poison 
ivy in Pennsylvania have changed with the increased carbon dioxide in 
the atmosphere that is fueling climate change.
LISTEN to the story Audio Player

Mason Heberling, associate curator of botany at the Carnegie Museum of 
Natural History in Pittsburgh, said the study used many of the museum’s 
herbarium collection of 133 dried poison ivy specimens from 
Pennsylvania, dating from 1838 to the 2010s.

The study was pioneered by then-Chatham University undergraduate Alyssa 
McCormick, a research intern. It’s based on a pair of influential 
studies from the early 2000s, which had been featured in one of the 
museum’s exhibits.

In one of those studies, poison ivy was grown indoors with high and 
regular carbon dioxide levels. The other study artificially enriched a 
forest plot with carbon dioxide. The studies showed poison ivy could be 
a winner when it comes to climate change, growing larger leaves with 
more CO2 and becoming more toxic to people.

But those were experimental studies. Heberling and McCormick wondered 
about an observational one.

‘We kind of stared at the specimens for a really long time and thought, 
“What can we measure from them?”’ Heberling said.

*Their methods*
They measured stomatal density, or the number of stomata, or pores, on 
the leaves, which are how plants take in carbon dioxide for 
photosynthesis and release oxygen and water.

“You put a little bit of nail polish on the dried leaf,” Heberling said, 
“let the nail polish dry on the leaf, and then you can pull off the nail 
polish, and it makes kind of a cast of the underside of the leaf without 
damaging the specimen.”

Heberling said the amount of stomata that some plant species make 
correlates with carbon dioxide. So, they wanted to know if poison ivy 
adjusted its stomatal density with increased carbon dioxide.

But they wanted to answer a second question: Do all plants do this, or 
is this particular to poison ivy?

To help answer their question, they included another woody vine, 
Virginia creeper, which often grows alongside poison ivy, and staghorn 
sumac and poison sumac. They are both related to poison ivy but are 
trees, not vines.

They also looked at leaf size, and McCormick took tiny samples of the 
leaves, which were sent away for isotopic analysis to measure different 
forms of carbon in them.

The earliest specimens in the study are from around 1840 when 
atmospheric carbon dioxide was about 280 parts per million.

“And today we’re well over 400,” Heberling said. “So that’s a pretty big 
increase in carbon dioxide over the last 200 years.”

https://www.alleghenyfront.org/climate-change-has-changed-poison-ivy-leaves-in-pennsylvania/



/[The news archive - looking back some 23 years ago ]/
/*October 26, 2000 */
October 26, 2000: At a campaign appearance in Davenport, Iowa, 
Democratic candidate Al Gore declares:

"Now, I want to talk about the environment here today, because we have a 
situation where the big polluters are supporting Governor Bush, and they 
are wanting to be in control of the environmental policies.

"In his state of Texas -- Tom talked about some of the statistics there 
-- here's another: They're No. 1 in something; they rank No. 1 out of 
all 50 in industrial pollution. They rank No. 1 as the smoggiest state. 
Houston's just solidified its title as the smoggiest city.

"He put a lobbyist for the chemical manufacturers in charge of enforcing 
the environmental laws, made some of the environmental laws voluntary 
and then the state sank in its ratings.

"Now, look, just today we are seeing on television the new study that 
just comes out once every five years where the scientific community 
around the world tells us what they've learned about this problem that 
these kids are going to grow up with unless we do something, and that's 
the problem of global warming. And I know a lot of people say that that 
looks like it's off in the future.

"But let me tell what you this new study said: instead of just going up 
a few degrees in the lifetimes of these kids, unless we act, the average 
temperature is going to go up 10 or 11 degrees. The storms will get 
stronger, the weather patterns will change. But it does not have to 
happen, and it won't happen if we put our minds to solving this problem."

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0010/26/se.02.html




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