[✔️] October 25, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Scientists dire collapse, Big oil planning to survive, Grim vital signs, Newsom spreading his gospel, Risc investments, 2013 Superstorm Sandy

[Richard Pauli]

/*October *//*25, 2023*/

/[ today's headline rings familiar ]
/*15,000 Scientists Warn Society Could 'Collapse' This Century In Dire 
Climate Report
*"We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered.”
By Becky Ferreira
October 24, 2023

Scientists are warning that we are now in “uncharted territory” as a 
result of human-driven climate change in a new “state of the climate” 
report that was signed by 15,000 researchers from 163 countries.

Researchers emphasized the current suffering caused by record-breaking 
climate extremes and raised alarms about the possibility of widespread 
societal and ecological collapse in the future, while also decrying 
recent increases in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, which is the 
primary driver of climate change.

The 2023 report, published on Tuesday in the journal BioScience, is the 
latest update in an annual series called World Scientists Warning of a 
Climate Emergency. Since 2019, scientists have been tracking escalating 
threats that warming global temperatures present to humans and 
ecosystems around the world.

The new report, led by Oregon State University ecologist William Ripple, 
warns that 2023 was a particularly devastating year of extreme 
wildfires, floods, heatwaves, and other natural disasters that are 
amplified by climate change. The authors suggest that temperatures this 
past July may well have been the warmest on Earth over the past 100,000 
years, which they called “a sign that we are pushing our planetary 
systems into dangerous instability.”

“As scientists, we are increasingly being asked to tell the public the 
truth about the crises we face in simple and direct terms,” Ripple and 
his colleagues wrote in the report. “The truth is that we are shocked by 
the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023. We are afraid of the 
uncharted territory that we have now entered.”

“Global daily mean temperatures never exceeded 1.5-degree Celsius (°C) 
above pre-industrial levels prior to 2000 and have only occasionally 
exceeded that number since then,” the researchers noted. “However, 2023 
has already seen 38 days with global average temperatures above 1.5°C by 
12 September—more than any other year—and the total may continue to rise.”
The authors have spent years monitoring 35 of Earth’s “vital signs,” 
such as global tree cover, greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean 
temperatures, and populations of humans and livestock. The new report 
cautions that 20 of those signs are now at record extremes, which is up 
from 16 in 2022.

Ripple’s team noted that natural effects, such as the El Niño weather 
pattern and the 2022 eruption of an underwater volcano, were a factor in 
the record-smashing climate extremes this year. However, the researchers 
stressed that human-driven climate change is exacerbating many of these 
natural processes in ways that will generate more frequent and 
catastrophic anomalies in the coming decades.

The report includes a section entitled “Untold Human Suffering in 
Pictures” that offers a powerful visual accounting of people 
experiencing climate-related disasters over the past several years. The 
people who are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change tend to 
live in less wealthy nations that have contributed the least to global 
greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the need for environmental 
justice movements.

“In 2023, climate change likely contributed to a number of major extreme 
weather events and disasters,” the researchers wrote, referencing deadly 
floods in China and India, a devastating storm in Libya that killed 
thousands of people, and heat-waves around the world. “As these impacts 
continue to accelerate, more funding to compensate for climate-related 
loss and damage in developing countries is urgently needed.”

“The effects of global warming are progressively more severe, and 
possibilities such as a worldwide societal breakdown are feasible and 
dangerously underexplored,” the team warned. “By the end of this 
century, an estimated 3 to 6 billion individuals—approximately one-third 
to one-half of the global population—might find themselves confined 
beyond the livable region, encountering severe heat, limited food 
availability, and elevated mortality rates because of the effects of 
climate change.”

“We warn of potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems in 
such a world where we will face unbearable heat, frequent extreme 
weather events, food and fresh water shortages, rising seas, more 
emerging diseases, and increased social unrest and geopolitical 
conflict,” the researchers said.

It’s natural to feel overwhelmed by the enormity of the challenge 
presented by climate change, but Ripple and his colleagues offer several 
solutions to avoid the worst possible outcomes. Of course, the team 
urged the global community to rapidly transition from the use of fossil 
fuels, even in the face of major geopolitical obstacles, such as 
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The researchers also advocated that more resources be allocated to fight 
climate-related food insecurity and to promote gender equality, as these 
efforts will reduce the lopsided exposure of more vulnerable communities 
to climate disasters around the world. The team also argued that key 
climate tipping points require constant attention due to the “the 
possible but less likely scenario of runaway or apocalyptic climate 
change,” according to the report.

Last, and perhaps most importantly, the report said that human societies 
will also need to undergo a mindset shift from the traditional focus on 
economic growth over all other metrics.

“To address the overexploitation of our planet, we challenge the 
prevailing notion of endless growth and overconsumption by rich 
countries and individuals as unsustainable and unjust,” the team wrote. 
“Instead, we advocate for reducing resource overconsumption; reducing, 
reusing, and recycling waste in a more circular economy; and 
prioritizing human flourishing and sustainability.”

“As we will soon bear witness to failing to meet the Paris agreement’s 
aspirational 1.5°C goal, the significance of immediately curbing fossil 
fuel use and preventing every further 0.1°C increase in future global 
heating cannot be overstated,” the researchers concluded. “Rather than 
focusing only on carbon reduction and climate change, addressing the 
underlying issue of ecological overshoot will give us our best shot at 
surviving these challenges in the long run. This is our moment to make a 
profound difference for all life on Earth, and we must embrace it with 
unwavering courage and determination to create a legacy of change that 
will stand the test of time.”
https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kxdxa/1500-scientists-warn-society-could-collapse-this-century-in-dire-climate-report



/[Long term strategy for business survival amidst fears of a climate 
calamity lurk in Big Oil's big deals - AXIOS ]
/Oct 24, 2023 - Energy & Environment
*Fears of a climate calamity lurk in Big oil's big deal
*Andrew Freedman

*Two mega oil mergers,* combined with other recent industry moves, 
threaten to prolong high amounts of greenhouse gas emissions and 
endanger Paris climate targets, climate activists warn.

*Why it matters:* Chevron's $53 billion purchase of Hess announced on 
Monday — along with ExxonMobil's deal with Pioneer Natural Resources — 
signals that oil and gas firms foresee robust fossil fuel demand into 
the 2030s, despite government moves to slash greenhouse gas emissions 
and boost renewable energy.
*
Zoom in:* Climate activists have criticized both deals as doubling down 
on harmful energy sources.

  * If regulators bless the deal, the Hess merger will boost Chevron's
    oil and gas production and give it a stake in important
    international plays.
  * Chevron said the merged firm "is expected to grow production and
    free cash flow faster and for longer than Chevron's current
    five-year guidance."
  * Exxon's purchase would also boost its oil and gas production.

*Threat level: *Boosting oil and gas production, while viewed as a 
national security imperative, is inconsistent with steps climate 
scientists argue are necessary to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature 
targets.

  * For example, to meet the more ambitious target of holding climate
    change to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels through 2100,
    global emissions would have to decline by about 43% below 2019
    levels by 2030.
  * Such cuts are nowhere near reality at the moment.
  * Meanwhile, the likelihood of climate-related "tipping points" like
    destabilized global ice sheets, along with worsening extreme weather
    events, become far more likely, studies show.

*Between the lines: *According to Rapidan Energy Group founder and 
president Bob McNally, the deals demonstrate oil and gas leaders' 
rejection of the view that climate policies are about to cause oil 
demand to peak.

  * "These mergers are more powerful manifestations of similar recent
    moves by BP and Shell to walk back their plans to reduce upstream
    investment drastically," McNally told Axios in an email.
  * "Since late 2021, industry investment and politics have shifted away
    from keep-it-in-the-ground and back to all-of-the-above," he said.
  * "These moves and the dial-back on decarbonization momentum generally
    deeply alarms climate groups."

*What they're saying:* "Big oil needs to change or Paris will fail. 
That's a decision for shareholders," Mark van Baal, the founder of 
Follow This, an activist shareholder movement, said in a statement.

  * He pointed to risks for Chevron in this deal, including falling
    costs of renewables; increasingly stringent climate policies like
    those recently adopted in California; and legal proceedings that
    could hold some fossil fuel companies accountable for their role in
    climate change.

*The intrigue: *There are likely to be additional fossil fuel mergers 
and acquisitions to come, experts told Axios. The result may be fewer 
(and bigger) companies better able to withstand oil price fluctuations.

  * "The companies see persistent global hydrocarbon demand in the short
    term and consider the transition to lower-carbon sources as a
    decades-long process, with hydrocarbons remaining a vital piece of
    the global economy through the end of the century," said Shon Hiatt,
    director of the Business of Energy Transition Initiative at the USC
    Marshall School of Business, told Axios via email.
  * "Consolidation serves as a safeguard against declining consumption
    when peak hydrocarbon demand eventually materializes," he said,
    while noting that Chevron and Exxon are diversifying "into energy
    transition areas that build upon their expertise."
  * These include lithium extraction, hydrogen, carbon capture and
    sequestration and geothermal technologies.
    Meanwhile, European oil majors are leaning into the energy
    transition more, venturing farther afield into wind and solar power.

*What's next:* Ensuring emissions cuts before 2030 will be a driving 
goal for the upcoming UN Climate Summit in Dubai starting late next month.

  * The two oil megadeals will form part of the summit backdrop, with
    oil and gas firms officially invited to the confab to an
    unprecedented degree.

*Yes, but: *Incoming COP28 president Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber has said he 
expects oil and gas leaders to come to the summit with concrete 
commitments to help the world meet its Paris goals.

  * It's unclear if these mergers would qualify.

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/24/chevron-exxon-deals-climate-change



/[ who is surprised? ]/
*Earth’s ‘vital signs’ worse than at any time in human history, 
scientists warn*
Life on planet is in peril, say climate experts, as they call for a 
rapid and just transition to a sustainable future
Damian Carrington Environment editor
@dpcarrington
Tue 24 Oct 2023
Earth’s “vital signs” are worse than at any time in human history, an 
international team of scientists has warned, meaning life on the planet 
is in peril.

Their report found that 20 of the 35 planetary vital signs they use to 
track the climate crisis are at record extremes. As well as greenhouse 
gas emissions, global temperature and sea level rise, the indicators 
also include human and livestock population numbers.

Many climate records were broken by enormous margins in 2023, including 
global air temperature, ocean temperature and Antarctic sea ice extent, 
the researchers said. The highest monthly surface temperature ever 
recorded was in July and was probably the hottest the planet has been in 
100,000 years.

The scientists also highlighted an extraordinary wildfire season in 
Canada that produced unprecedented carbon dioxide emissions. These 
totalled 1bn tonnes of CO2, equivalent to the entire annual output of 
Japan, the world’s fifth biggest polluter. They said the huge area 
burned could indicate a tipping point into a new fire regime.

The researchers urged a transition to a global economy that prioritised 
human wellbeing and cut the overconsumption and excessive emissions of 
the rich. The top 10% of emitters were responsible for almost 50% of 
global emissions in 2019, they said.

Dr Christopher Wolf, at Oregon State University (OSU) in the US and a 
lead author of the report, said: “Without actions that address the root 
problem of humanity taking more from Earth than it can safely give, 
we’re on our way to the potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic 
systems and a world with unbearable heat and shortages of food and 
freshwater.

“By 2100, as many as 3 billion to 6 billion people may find themselves 
outside Earth’s livable regions, meaning they will be encountering 
severe heat, limited food availability and elevated mortality rates.”

Prof William Ripple, also at OSU, said: “Life on our planet is clearly 
under siege. The statistical trends show deeply alarming patterns of 
climate-related variables and disasters. We also found little progress 
to report as far as humanity combating climate change.

“Our goal is to communicate climate facts and make policy 
recommendations. It is a moral duty of scientists and our institutions 
to alert humanity of any potential existential threat and to show 
leadership in taking action.”

The analysis, published in the journal Bioscience, is an update of a 
2019 report that has been endorsed by 15,000 scientists.

“For several decades, scientists have consistently warned of a future 
marked by extreme climatic conditions caused by ongoing human 
activities,” the report says. “Unfortunately, time is up … we are 
pushing our planetary systems into dangerous instability.”

Prof Tim Lenton, at the University of Exeter in the UK, the co-author, 
said: “These record extremes are alarming in themselves, and they are 
also in danger of triggering tipping points that could do irreversible 
damage and further accelerate climate change.

“Our best hope to prevent a cascade of climate tipping points is to 
identify and trigger positive tipping points in our societies and 
economies, to ensure a rapid and just transition to a sustainable future.”
The report highlighted severe flooding in China and India, extreme 
heatwaves in the US and an exceptionally intense Mediterranean storm led 
to the deaths of thousands of people in Libya.

The report said that by mid-September, there had been 38 days with 
global average temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, 
which is the world’s long-term goal for limiting the climate crisis. 
Until this year, such days were a rarity, the researchers said.

Other policies recommended by the scientists included phasing out fossil 
fuel subsidies, ramping up forest protection, a shift towards 
plant-based diets in wealthy countries and adopting international 
treaties to end new coal projects and phase out oil and gas.

“We also call to stabilise and gradually decrease the human population 
with gender justice through voluntary family planning and by supporting 
women’s and girls’ education and rights, which reduces fertility rates,” 
they said.

“Big problems need big solutions. Therefore, we must shift our 
perspective on the climate emergency from being just an isolated 
environmental issue to a systemic, existential threat. Although global 
heating is devastating, it represents only one aspect of the escalating 
and interconnected environmental crisis that we are facing – eg, 
biodiversity loss, fresh water scarcity, and pandemics.”

Dr Glen Peters, at the Global Carbon Project, said recently that the 
preliminary estimate for global CO2 emissions in 2023 was a rise of 1% 
to yet another record. Global emissions must fall by 45% to have a good 
chance of staying under 1.5C of heating.
In September, a different analysis of the Earth system using nine 
planetary boundaries concluded that this planet’s life support systems 
had been so damaged that Earth was “well outside the safe operating 
space for humanity”. The planetary boundaries are the limits of key 
global systems – such as climate, water and wildlife diversity – beyond 
which their ability to maintain a healthy planet is in danger of failing.
     - 
https://apps.crossref.org/pendingpub/pendingpub.html?doi=10.1093%2Fbiosci%2Fbiad080
     - https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biad080

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/24/earth-vital-signs-human-history-scientists-sustainable-future


/[NYT clips “We are rebuilding the plane while we’re flying it,” ]/
*Gavin Newsom Wants to Export California’s Climate Laws to the World*
The Democratic governor is supercharging climate policy and eyeing a 
future White House run. But critics say some of his constituents could 
be left behind.
By Coral Davenport
Oct. 23, 2023
Gavin Newsom, the California governor, packed his bags and his ambition 
Monday and flew to Chinese provinces on a weeklong mission to negotiate 
climate agreements.

Last month, he was the only American invited to address the United 
Nations about climate change, where he excoriated the fossil fuel 
industry for what he called its decades of “deceit and denial.”

He has signed a raft of laws and regulations to speed the nation’s most 
populous state away from fossil fuels, including a ban on the sale of 
new gas-powered cars by 2035 and a mandate to stop adding carbon dioxide 
to the atmosphere by 2045. He wants to end oil drilling in his state, a 
major oil producer, also by 2045.

The two-term Democratic governor wants California to set an aggressive 
pace for the nation — and the world — as time is running out to deeply 
cut the carbon emissions that are dangerously heating the planet. Mr. 
Newsom’s bold moves on climate have elevated his national profile, just 
as he is widely believed to be preparing for a White House run in 2028.

“We move the needle for the country and, as a consequence, for the 
globe,” Mr. Newsom said in a telephone interview Sunday night from Hong 
Kong. “And that is profound.”

Critics warn that some of Mr. Newsom’s climate policies are so ambitious 
as to be unrealistic, making them impossible to scale on a national or 
global level. Worse, they say, his headlong pursuit of his goals could 
disrupt California’s energy supplies, hike electric rates and devastate 
communities that depend on gas and oil drilling.

“The Newsom administration has been pushing harder and faster on a 
climate policy process that was already in place,” said David Victor, 
co-director of the Deep Decarbonization Initiative at the University of 
California San Diego. “The challenge is how hard and fast can you push 
the system ‘til it breaks?”

Mr. Newsom said that technological changes in the way the United States 
produces and uses energy are happening so fast, that it makes sense to 
set ambitious targets. “The breakthroughs that are coming in the next 
few years will blow past the paradigm of limited thinking we have 
today,” he said. “We have proven again and again that through policy we 
can accelerate innovation.”
In China this week, Mr. Newsom plans to sign five agreements with 
leaders of Chinese provinces aimed in part at exporting some of 
California’s climate policies and technologies.
- -
Mr. Newsom’s posture as a climate warrior would seem to help him in 
2028, when Gen Z and millennial voters will dominate the electorate, 
said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster and political strategist...
- -
Mr. Newsom joins earlier California governors who pushed the state to 
the vanguard of climate policy, including Jerry Brown, a Democrat who 
promoted rooftop solar and later traveled to China to talk climate 
policy with president Xi Jinping, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, a 
Republican who helped craft the nation’s first major law to require cuts 
in greenhouse gasses and developed tailpipe emissions regulations that 
became a national model.

But Mr. Newsom, 56, has seized the climate mantle and made it his own. 
On top of the mandates to end emissions and compel sales of electric 
vehicles, he pushed California legislators to approve a record $52 
billion in climate spending. Earlier this month, he signed a 
first-in-the nation law that would require major companies to publicly 
disclose all their greenhouse emissions.

And his administration is suing the world’s largest oil companies for 
the climate damages linked to their products. In addition, California 
has nearly stopped issuing new permits for oil and gas drilling. And it 
has created an agency to monitor oil companies for price-gouging or 
other illegal activities.
- -
The governor has less empathy for the multinational oil companies he is 
suing, including Chevron, which is headquartered in his state...
“Yes, I use their product,” he said. “And yes, I flew over here. And 
yes, I’m in a car that uses gas. I’m not stupid. I’m not naïve. I didn’t 
walk here in my organic moccasins. But nor am I naïve about their deceit 
and their denial and as a consequence of the delay and how that’s 
literally accelerating the destruction of our planet.”
“Well, we’ve got work to do,” Mr. Newsom said on Sunday. “The work is 
exciting. You ain’t seen nothing yet. We got work to do and every year 
we iterate.”

After the California legislature passed a landmark bill last month 
requiring large companies to disclose all their greenhouse gas 
emissions, Mr. Newsom appended an unusual note to his signature on it, 
noting that the deadlines are “likely infeasible” and asking legislators 
to work on a new law to modify it.

And in an acknowledgment that the state may not be able to produce 
renewable electricity fast enough to replace its old polluting power 
sources, Mr. Newsom wants regulators to extend the life of Diablo 
Canyon, the state’s sole nuclear power plant, for another 20 years. The 
plant, which supplies about 9 percent of the state’s electricity without 
emitting greenhouse gasses, is scheduled to close in 2025.

“Before I got elected I never heard of cleanup legislation,” said Mr. 
Fong. “His argument is, this will have costs but we’ll clean it up 
later. That’s not how you make economic and energy policy for 40 million 
people.”

One area in which California appears to be zooming ahead to meet its 
climate targets is in the adoption of all-electric vehicles.

In the second quarter of 2023, 25 percent of new cars sold in the state 
were electric (compared with 7 percent nationally), putting California 
on track to meet Mr. Newsom’s mandate that by 2035, every new car sold 
in the state will be electric.

Charging stations are moving even faster. The state has already met the 
governor’s goal of installing 10,000 fast-charging public stations by 2025.

“California is blowing these targets out of the water,” said Sara 
Rafalson, a vice president at EVgo, an Los Angeles-based charging 
company, who credits Mr. Newsom for the work.

But as the E.V. network spreads, utilities are facing a challenge: how 
to supply the additional electricity required.

A report by Southern California Edison, one of the state’s largest 
electric utilities, found that meeting Mr. Newsom’s climate mandates 
would cause demand for electricity to spike by more than 80 percent, 
primarily because of electric vehicles. That rising demand comes as 
utilities would be required to rapidly slash their greenhouse emissions.

To meet Mr. Newsom’s climate goals, Southern California Edison would 
need to invest heavily in wind and solar energy while erecting 
transmission lines and towers four times faster than it does now and 
building smaller distribution lines 10 times faster. And it would need 
to keep that pace going for 20 years — at a cost of more than $370 billion.

“We are rebuilding the plane while we’re flying it,” said Pedro Pizarro, 
the CEO of Edison International, the parent company of Southern 
California Edison.

And even that won’t be enough, he said. To keep the lights on and the 
cars charged, the company would have to continue to run its existing 
fossil fuel-fired plants but equip them with costly technology designed 
to capture carbon emissions before they are released into the 
atmosphere. That nascent technology is not yet in commercial use and no 
power plant in California currently uses it.

“It’s not that the emperor doesn’t have clothes, but the clothes are 
pretty thin,” said Mr. Pizarro.

Some California companies say that while they find the Newsom climate 
regime burdensome, they also see it as inevitable.

Hamid Moghadam, CEO of Prologis, a San Francisco-based company that 
builds and leases warehouses for products ordered online from retailers 
like Home Depot, said that his global business must comply with 19 
California climate regulations, ranging from rules that limit carbon 
dioxide emitted from cement manufacturing to restrictions on emissions 
from the delivery trucks. The rules can add roughly 6 percent to project 
costs, he said. “It drives up the cost of building, leasing and 
maintaining the warehouses, which drives up the cost to the consumers.”

Still, he said, “the smart companies are looking at the climate thing as 
a business opportunity and instead of fighting it, the forward-looking 
ones that have the capital are embracing it. Twenty years from now we’ll 
be looking at what we’re doing today in California as the norm.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/23/climate/gavin-newsom-california-climate-action.html




/[ Fire and other risk investments - 53 minute video  ]/
*Catastrophe for Sale | Planet Finance (5/6)*
vpro documentary
Aug 26, 2023
On Planet Finance, there is a market for almost anything. Even for a 
future disaster that has not yet occurred and may never happen. As the 
risks of climate change pile up, it appears that money can be made in 
the Catbond Market on the risk of future wildfires, floods and hurricanes.
There is speculation on what the probability is that a catastrophe will 
occur. And especially on how much damage it might cause. How does this 
market work? And who are the winners and who are the losers?
- -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEwYDl5tl-s&t=2s



/[The news archive - looking back flood legacy ]/
/*October 25, 2013*/
October 25, 2013: On MSNBC's "The Cycle," writer David Gessner discusses 
the grotesque legacy of Superstorm Sandy.
http://www.msnbc.com/the-cycle/watch/hurricane-sandy-one-year-later-56848963789#


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