[✔️] October 24, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Antarctic inevitability, selling insurance, Heat battery, TEOTWAWKI, History of conferences, 2003 "two choices"

Tue Oct 24 09:26:05 EDT 2023

/*October 24*//*, 2023*/

/[DW -- well known, but a new reminder - with videos ]
/*West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse is 'unavoidable' — study*
October 23, 2023
The British Antarctic Survey says warming waters are melting West 
Antarctica's ice shelf, contributing to rising sea levels. Research 
shows the trend is set to continue until at least the end of the century.

A study by the British Antarctic Society published in the journal Nature 
Climate Change on Monday claims, "we are now committed to the rapid 
increase in the rate of ocean warming and ice shelf melting over the 
rest of the century."

Lead author, oceanographer Kaitlin Naughten, said of the study, "Our 
main question here was: How much control do we still have over ice shelf 
melting? How much melting can still be prevented by reducing emissions? 
Unfortunately, it's not great news."

Naughten said it could take hundreds of years for the shelf to melt 
entirely — which would produce a 1.8 meter (nearly 6 foot) rise in sea 
levels — but major melting appeared to be inevitable according to all of 
the computer simulations that she and her peers conducted.

*How experts evaluated the West Antarctic Ice Sheet*
Researchers looked specifically at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that 
juts into the Amundsen Sea for their study and found that even if global 
warming could be held to the international target of just a few tenths 
of a degree it would have, "limited power to prevent ocean warming that 
could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet."

Naughten's team was the first to use high-resolution computer 
simulations that studied the effects of warm water melting the sheet 
from below, looking at four scenarios tied to different amounts of 
carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere — in each case they found 
erosion would continue unabated, meaning the sheet would eventually 
collapse.

Even if temperatures only rose at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees 
Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels — the study's best-case scenario 
— researchers say the ice would still melt at a rate three times faster 
than last century.

"Reducing emissions can help prevent the worst-case scenario of melting, 
but beyond that, mitigation has a negligible impact," said Naughten.

Collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet one of nine climate 'tipping points'
Researchers concentrated on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is more 
fragile than the eastern side of the southern continent, focusing on 
so-called gatekeeper ice shelves that float upon the ocean while keeping 
glaciers in place.

Author Naughten said she avoids the word "doomed" as it is still 
possible that emissions and indeed warming could theoretically be halted 
or even reversed in the longterm, adding, "It isn't unavoidable that we 
lose all of it because sea-level rise happens over the very long term. I 
only looked at this study up to 2100."

The study suggests the change could take several hundred years to play 
out but Naughten pointed to the ultimate speed of transformation as a 
key factor. She said it would be "absolutely devastating" should it take 
place over just a couple hundred years, but that humanity could adapt if 
the change could be drawn out over a couple of thousand years.

"Coastal communities," she said, "will either have to build around or be 
abandoned."

Though peers not involved in the study, such as Tiago Segabinazzi Dotto 
of the UK's National Oceanography Centre, cautioned that results "need 
to be treated carefully since different models and even ensembles of the 
same model can give different responses," he said it nevertheless 
aligned with other research.

The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was identified as one of 
nine climate "tipping points" in 2009. Scientists at the time said that 
moving beyond these environmental red lines — the collapse of various 
ice sheets, reversals in oceanic currents, the death of the Amazon 
rainforest and the collapse of boreal permafrost — would prove 
catastrophic for life on earth.

The Thwaites glacier: when a giant melts
https://www.dw.com/en/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapse-is-unavoidable-study/a-67190945

/[ Insurance insight and intelligence ]
/
*Climate change – Evolving risk and regulation*
Guy Carpenter’s Sam Phibbs, Katy Reyner and Sandra Hansen on the need to 
navigate the changing regulatory landscape related to climate change.
In 2023, we have seen record-breaking temperatures, updated projections 
on the accelerating pace of climate change and a growing number of 
severe events. The September global surface temperature was 1.68°C above 
the 20th century average, making it the warmest September on record by a 
wide margin.

With the forecasted strengthening of El Niño, multiple outlooks have 
suggested over a 90 percent probability of 2023 becoming the warmest 
year on record and a 50 percent chance of meeting or beating the 1.5°C 
above pre-industrial temperatures threshold.

Climate change has significant impacts beyond increasing global 
temperature, and its effect on natural catastrophe activity can manifest 
in extreme events for multiple perils:

Tropical cyclone: Since mid-March, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in 
the North Atlantic have exceeded daily records every day. North Atlantic 
SSTs eclipsed 25°C for the first time on record, while global SSTs 
surpassed 21°C for the first time. Warmer SSTs mean stronger and wetter 
tropical cyclones are possible. Even with a strengthening El Niño (which 
typically supresses hurricane activity), the ongoing North Atlantic 
hurricane season has so far been above average in terms of accumulated 
cyclone energy.
Flood: Heavy rainfall in May led to widespread flooding in the 
Emilia-Romagna region of Italy. Additional flooding occurred in Slovenia 
in August and in Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Spain and Libya in September. 
Warmer air holds more moisture, adding to the risk of extreme precipitation.
Severe convective storm: In July, heat waves along with low-pressure 
systems bringing warm humid air from the Mediterranean resulted in 
extreme hail in central Europe, particularly in Italy. The Mediterranean 
reached its highest ever recorded temperature of over 28°C. The 
conditions persisted for a week and resulted in some of the largest hail 
on record. Warmer surface temperatures with increasing atmospheric 
moisture and instability increase the risk of extreme hail events.
Wildfire: In Europe, extreme heat contributed to extraordinary wildfire 
activity, particularly in Italy and Greece. Warmer, drier weather 
provides conditions conducive for larger, more-intense wildfires.
Industry loss estimates for the first half of 2023 remain well above the 
decadal average despite the comparatively smaller impact on reinsurers. 
A range of industry sources have estimated that first-half insured 
losses from natural catastrophes were in the $50bn to $53bn range. The 
first-half 2023 tally is also significantly above the $44bn decadal 
average for the 2013-2022 period as well as the $38bn 21st century 
average. Guy Carpenter has begun to estimate the potential impact of 
climate change on insured loss using the latest robust scientific 
projections and internal research.

Climate change disclosure

Europe continues to push ahead with a variety of sustainable finance 
regulations, and preparing for the Corporate Sustainability Reporting 
Directive and extended EU Taxonomy disclosures remains a priority for 
many in the industry. In July, the European Commission adopted the first 
set of European sustainability reporting standards, which will require 
insurers to undertake a double materiality assessment and report on 
sustainability-related impacts, opportunities and risks. The scope is 
such that foreign parents can be subject to these tougher reporting 
requirements, including certain US parent entities with operations in 
the EU.

Challenges remain around availability of data, but increasing guidance, 
particularly around materiality assessments and scenario analysis, is an 
opportunity for the industry to develop the needed toolkit to 
incorporate climate change into risk management, pricing and capital 
decisions, and navigate the changing regulatory landscape.

How Guy Carpenter can help
Guy Carpenter has developed a full suite of climate change physical risk 
analytics and advisory products, ranging from underwriting and 
accumulation layers to adjustments to third-party catastrophe models and 
in-house risk scores developed for climate change.

Sam Phibbs, Katy Reyner and Sandra Hansen are members of the Global 
Peril Advisory team at Guy Carpenter
https://www.theinsurer.com/viewpoint/climate-change-evolving-risk-and-regulation/

/[ Bookmark and return to this site for helpful information ]
/ *National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center
*  Climate News
NOAA Issues Winter Outlook (19 Oct 2023)
El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere 
spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024) (12 Oct 2023)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

/
/

/[ accumulator is saving heat - video ]/
*This energy storage technology is HOT STUFF!*
Just Have a Think
Oct 22, 2023
Rondo Energy just secured $60 million of funding from some of the 
world's shrewdest investors. So, can they now achieve their goal of a 
90GWh per annum production facility for their simple heat battery 
technology, reducing global industrial CO2 emissions by 12 MILLION 
tonnes per year? Time will tell!
Rondo Energy https://rondo.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOC7TrmgKgI

[   TEOTWAWKI  is "The End Of The World As We Know It" -- avideo tribute 
to the late Michael Dowd - founder of "Post Doom - No Gloom" ]
*TEOTWAWKI- TRIBUTE TO REV. MICHAEL DOWD*
Environmental Coffeehouse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBtnl5rzhfU
Oct 13, 2023 #thegreatstory #postdoom
We all loved Michael and he loved all of us. Join Eliot, Jennifer and 
Sandy to talk about Michael's life and how he touched us to the core. 
RIP Rev. Michael Dowd - forever in our hearts.
"Michael Dowd (1958 - 2023) was an American author, lecturer, and 
advocate of ecotheology and post-doom. His 1991 book, EarthSpirit, 
launched his public speaking career, grounded in the epic of evolution, 
religious naturalism, and progressive Christianity."
"Rev. Dowd shows how a meaningful science-based understanding of human 
nature, death, and the trajectory of big history can offer a 
realistically hopeful and inspiring vision of the future. He also offers 
practical tools for growing in right relationship to reality that can 
enrich and even transform one's life and interaction. Uniquely gifted at 
building bridges between religious and non-religious people, Michael 
shares humanity's common creation story in ways that uplift and expand 
heart, mind, and soul. His passion is showing how a science-informed 
spirituality can inspire each of us to live with greater integrity, joy, 
and zest for life — and can also deepen appreciation of traditional 
spiritual insights."
"We boomers are not only the generation in power now; we are also the 
generation whose numbers (and previous decades of lavish consumption) 
make us pointedly responsible for rising levels of carbon dioxide in the 
atmosphere. "Richer than kings!" my wife and I regularly remind 
ourselves whenever we enjoy a fresh avocado in Colorado in winter, when 
we take a hot shower at the mere turn of a tap, when we receive quality 
dental care, when we listen to music or audiobooks on our iPods, when we 
never go hungry. But what kind of a world and life prospects will we 
bequeath to our grandchildren?"
#eliotjacobson #revmichaeldowd #thegreatstory #postdoom
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Post Doom- https://postdoom.com/
Michael- https://michaeldowd.org/
The Great Story-

  / @thegreatstory
Connie Barlow-https://www.youtube.com/@ghostsofevolution/videos
Michael Dowd reading Overshoot 
https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/catton-overshoot-1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBtnl5rzhfU

/[ simple information but important history ]/
*History of Climate Conferences | A story of procrastination (Part 1)*
Climate Club
Oct 8, 2023  #climatechange #history #cop28
This is the entire yet brief history of climate conferences and 
negotiations. All the way from the beginning of climate science, to 2009 
(Part 1). All major conferences, and important events such as IPCC 
reports are explained.

    Timeline:
    00:00 Introduction
    00:18 Climate Science
    00:56 Conferences
    05:14 Rio 1992
    07:06 Kyoto 1997

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPV2nVcflo4

- -

/[ a 10 min video summary ]
/*The History of Climate Conferences Part 2 | A story of procrastination*
Climate Club
Oct 22, 2023  #sec
This is the entire yet brief history of climate conferences and 
negotiations. Since this is part 2, we start from 2010 up to today 
(2023). All major conferences, and important events such as IPCC reports 
are explained.

    Timeline:
    Introduction 00:00
    2010-2014 00:25
    Paris 2015 03:12
    2016-2022 04:23
    2023 onwards 08:25

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gpF8Fit_c4

/[The news archive - looking back that we were aware of the choices ]/
/*October 24, 2003 */
October 24, 2003: At the University of Chicago, Jim DiPeso of 
Republicans for Environmental Protection discusses the McCain-Lieberman 
Climate Stewardship Act and the urgent need to combat carbon pollution:

"We have two choices. We can ignore what the scientists are telling us, 
convince ourselves that nothing can be done, and abrogate the 
inter-generational contract we have with unborn generations. Or, we can 
accept what the scientists are telling us, roll up our sleeves, and take 
on the climate challenge."

http://web.archive.org/web/20031124102135/http://www.rep.org/opinions/speeches/33.html

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