[✔️] October 31, 2023- Global Warming News Digest | Rollie Williams pays to park in Chicago, Beckwith reads Antarctic ice melt, Harvard fire tornado?, 1978 PresidentCarter act law.

Tue Oct 31 04:53:01 EDT 2023

/*October 31*//*, 2023*/

/[ See Rollie Williams' latest video   -- Seattle may be as stuck as 
Chicago ]/
*Chicago Doesn’t Own Its Own Streets | Climate Town*
Climate Town
Oct 30, 2023
DON’T TAKE THE DEAL! Check us out on Nebula: 
https://go.nebula.tv/climatetown
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ClimateTown
sUbScRiBe FoR mOrE ViDeOs: https://www.youtube.com/c/climatetown

This episode features the wonderful talents of 
https://www.youtube.com/@standupmaths and you can check out their 
companion episode right here: https://youtu.be/4l16zI0sYRs

We also have a podcast! It’s called The Climate Denier’s Playbook and 
you can listen to it right here: https://linktr.ee/deniersplaybook

And ohhhh yeah we have a newsletter too! You can check it out here: 
https://www.climatetown.news/

And wait there’s actually something we can do about this maybe? Our 
friends at Climate Changemakers have put together a playbook on how to 
take action on minimum parking laws: 
https://www.climatechangemakers.org/playbook-parking-mandates
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDx6no-7HZE

- -

/[ take some action ]/
*ACTION PLAYBOOK: Abolish Parking Mandates*
The Goal: Abolish local parking mandates to reduce transportation 
emissions and encourage greener urban land use.
https://www.climatechangemakers.org/playbook-parking-mandates

- -

/[ more sarcastic humor on this topic ]/
*Chicago has a problem until the year 2083.*
Stand-up Maths
October 30, 2023
You absolutely must check out the companion Climate Town video: 
https://youtu.be/fDx6no-7HZE
Huge thanks to Rollie Williams, Nicole Conlan, Matt Nelson and the whole 
Climate Town team. We had an unreasonable amount of fun planning and 
filming these videos. You should subscribe to their channel: 
https://www.youtube.com/@ClimateTown What, you already are? Well 
unsubscribe and resubscribe you fool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4l16zI0sYRs

/[ Paul Beckwith reads aloud the latest science report on Antarctic ice 
melting ]
/*Bottom Crack Study on Antarctica’s Ross Ice Shelf With Underwater 
Robot Measures Instability Risks*
Paul Beckwith
Oct 30, 2023
A paper called “Direct Observation of Melting, Freezing, and Ocean 
Circulation in an Ice Shelf Basal Crevasse” was just published online 
(open access): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/s...

This very interesting, and very important study involved hot-water 
drilling a hole through an ice shelf in the Ross Shelf in Antarctica, 
and sending a robot called Icefin (follow Icefin on Twitter/X) through 
the hole to the water cavity near the glacier Grounding Line (GL) in the 
so-called Grounding Zone (GZ).

This robot surveyed one of the Ice Shelf Basal Crevasses (crack in the 
ice extending from the bottom partway upwards through the ice shelf). 
Measurements included three-dimensional water flow rates inside the 
crevasse, water temperatures, water salinity (thus water density) and 
detailed visual examination of features inside the crevasse on the walls 
of the crack.

The physical dynamics of the water flows and melting and crevasse 
characteristics were measured in detail, to completely characterize the 
present state of the crack and surrounding conditions within the bottom 
of the ice shelf.

Repeating the study in a year or subsequent years would then allow an 
understanding of whether or not the ice shelf is at risk of total 
collapse or if it is fairly stable.

Given the extremely warm anomalies in the oceans around Antarctica and 
the enormous collapse of Antarctic Sea ice around the continent, it is 
vital to assess possible ice shelf collapses, due to the associated 
increase in ice sheet flow into the ocean resulting directly from ice 
shelf collapses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LFMofAwIzo

- -

/[ research paper ]/
*Direct observations of melting, freezing, and ocean circulation in an 
ice shelf basal crevasse*
PETER WASHAM, JUSTIN D. LAWRENCE, CRAIG L. STEVENS, CHRISTINA L. HULBE, 
J. HORGAN, NATALIE J. ROBINSON, CRAIG L. STEWART, ANTHONY SPEARS, ENRICA 
QUARTINI, [...], AND BRITNEY E. SCHMIDT
27 Oct 2023
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adi7638
Abstract
Ocean conditions near the grounding zones of Antarctica’s ice shelves 
play a key role in controlling the outflow and mass balance of the ice 
sheet. However, ocean observations in these regions are largely absent. 
Here, we present a detailed spatial survey collected with an underwater 
vehicle in a basal crevasse located in the ocean cavity at the Ross Ice 
Shelf grounding zone. The observations depict fine-scale variability in 
ocean forcing that drives asymmetric melting along the lower crevasse 
sidewalls and freezing in the upper reaches of the crevasse. Freshwater 
release from melting at depth and salt rejection from freezing above 
drives an overturning circulation. This vertical circulation pattern 
overlays a dominant through flow jet, which funnels water parallel to 
the coastline, orthogonal to the direction of tidal currents. 
Importantly, these data reveal that basal crevasses influence ocean 
circulation and mixing at ice shelf grounding zones to an extent 
previously unknown.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi7638

/[ Kerry Emanuel is MIT Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science, he 
knows hurricanes well ]/
*Current and Future Hurricane Risk on Cape Ann with Kerry Emanuel- April 
5, 2023*
Cape Ann Climate Coalition
Apr 21, 2023
Kerry Emanuel, MIT Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science, delivered 
a virtual lecture on April 5, 2023 on current and future hurricanes.  
Emanuel reviewed the history of hurricanes affecting Cape Ann and 
described how modern science is shedding new light on current and future 
risk to the area as climate warms and sea level rises. New techniques 
for projecting future hurricane risk can provide residents and area 
leaders with valuable information that can serve as a basis for 
intelligent choices for dealing with severe storms in a changing climate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vx4JhlFJMM

- -

/[ how major calamities seem to come ~ 100 years apart ( duration of 
human forgetting )--- this may be a reference to the 1938 Hurricane in 
New England - which was a total surprise to everyone ]/

*1938 New England hurricane*

The 1938 New England Hurricane (also referred to as the Great New 
England Hurricane and the Long Island Express Hurricane)[1][2] was one 
of the deadliest and most destructive tropical cyclones to strike the 
United States. The storm formed near the coast of Africa on September 9, 
becoming a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale, 
before making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane[3] on Long Island on 
Wednesday, September 21. It is estimated that the hurricane killed 682 
people,[4] damaged or destroyed more than 57,000 homes, and caused 
property losses estimated at $306 million ($4.7 billion in 2017)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane

/[  classic article from Harvard Gazette 2 years ago ]/
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/07/harvard-researcher-examines-a-fire-tornado/
What exactly is a ‘fire tornado’?
BY Alvin Powell -- Harvard Staff Writer
DATE  July 20, 2021
The Bootleg Fire, one of the largest in modern Oregon history, has 
burned hundreds of square miles.
https://news.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/AP_21200615284304_2500-1500x1000.jpg
Bootleg Fire Incident Command via AP
Researcher Loretta Mickley discusses climate change, effects of forest 
management, and the rise and future of massive wildfires in West

The roaring Bootleg Fire burning up swaths of southwestern Oregon is the 
nation’s largest wildfire so far this year and intense enough that it’s 
triggering weather phenomena, including lightning, massive columns of 
smoke and ash clouds reaching high into the atmosphere, and even the 
possibility of a “fire tornado.” Loretta Mickley, senior research fellow 
in chemistry-climate interactions at the Harvard John A. Paulson School 
of Engineering and Applied Sciences, has examined the interaction of 
wildfires and climate and published research on the likelihood that the 
wildfires will grow larger and more frequent in the years to come. The 
Gazette spoke to Mickley to better understand the causes, dangers, and 
expectations for the future.

Q&A
Loretta Mickley
GAZETTE: There were reports that the Bootleg Fire may have spawned a 
fire tornado, which I think begs the question, “What is a fire tornado?”

MICKLEY: It is a spiraling vortex of gases and smoke and fire. They’re 
rare, because you need a lot of buoyancy from heating of the air by very 
hot gases coming off the fire. The buoyancy will give the atmosphere 
instability, but instability alone is not enough to create a fire 
tornado. You also need a stack of winds shifting in speed or direction 
with height. We call this wind shear, and the wind shear together with 
the intense heat could generate a fire tornado, which, by the way, 
sounds horrible.

GAZETTE: When you talk about buoyancy, are you talking about heat 
rising? And does it have to be hotter than a regular fire to generate a 
fire tornado?

MICKLEY: You need a very hot fire, which you would get with dry fuel. 
The drier the fuel, the more readily the fire’s energy can go into heat, 
rather than evaporating.

GAZETTE: Does this say something about the fire’s intensity? Or is it 
more related to the drought conditions that existed before the fire even 
started? Or are those the same thing?

MICKLEY: They are the same thing. If you have very dry conditions and 
abundant fuel — fires need a lot of underbrush or shrub land or 
understory trees — then the fire will burn with greater intensity, which 
means higher temperatures.

GAZETTE: Do we anticipate more fire tornadoes in the years to come?

MICKLEY: Fire tornadoes are so rare that we can’t say there’s a trend so 
far. What we can say is that the increase in fire activity in the West 
over the last 30 years is very likely tied to warmer temperatures under 
climate change, which has led to drier fuel. But the increase is also 
likely linked to fire management practices during the 20th century. This 
is important and often gets lost in the media, where the assumption is 
that all the increase in fires is due to climate change.

But that’s not true. At least some of the increase is due to the 
tendency during the 20th century to suppress fires, especially in the 
West. That led to an overgrowth of vegetation, denser vegetation, which 
provides fuel to the fires that do occur. It’s very challenging to tease 
out how much is due to climate change and how much is due to this 
accumulation of fuel. The accumulated fuel has resulted in what is 
sometimes called the fire deficit.

The West has always burned, with occasionally sustained periods of very 
frequent fires. Charcoal records in the soil indicate fairly extensive 
fire activity between 1100 and 1300 A.D., which happened to be a warm 
period across the West. So the West has gone through the cycles of more 
fire, less fire, more fire. But now we’re really pushing the envelope 
with both climate change and the accumulated fuels.

What we’d like to do is better understand what’s driving the recent 
increase. The number of fires has changed only modestly since the 1980s 
but the size of the fires — the area burned — has dramatically 
increased. For example, the area burned by lightning-strike fires in 
forests has increased by a factor of six in the West since 1985...
- -
Harvard scientist suggests long-term exposure to smoke-filled air could 
lead to premature deaths

“When you get a large temperature increase over time, as we are seeing, 
and little change in rainfall, fires will increase in size," said 
researcher Loretta J. Mickley. A graphic depicts the projected increase 
of fires in the western United States by 2050 (courtesy of Xu Yue). 
Firefighters are currently battling dozens of fires in at least 11 states.
Wildfires projected to worsen with climate change
By 2050, the U.S. wildfire season will be three weeks longer, up to 
twice as smoky

"High temperatures are also accompanied by weak winds, causing the 
atmosphere to stagnate. So the air just cooks and ozone levels can build 
up,” said Loretta J. Mickley, a co-author of the study. Pictured is the 
smog that sometimes blankets Los Angeles.

The complex relationship between heat and ozone
Unhealthy ozone days could increase by more than a week in coming decades

GAZETTE: Is that directly related to the fuel on the ground catching 
fire more easily with any lightning strike?

MICKLEY: That’s a good question. At least part of that is probably due 
to the suppression of fire but part of that is due to climate change. We 
may have a better answer in two to three years. It’s important to keep 
in mind that humans have altered the climate, and they’ve altered the 
landscape. Together, these have led to the fires. Another factor is that 
the number of people living in wildland areas has increased a lot since 
about 1990. The population is growing, and people love living in 
beautiful areas. But this puts them in harm’s way. So we’re not well 
insulated from these fires; we’re more vulnerable to fires.

GAZETTE: I remember hearing about the fire deficit — the accumulated 
material on the forest floor — in the past and we keep hearing about 
these big fires. Are we burning through this deficit or is the area so 
vast compared to the area burned each year that we’re really not?

MICKLEY: I would say not. It would take several decades of sustained 
high levels of burning to erase the fire deficit.
Interview was lightly edited for clarity and length.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/07/harvard-researcher-examines-a-fire-tornado/

/[The news archive - looking back]/
/*October 31, 1978 */
October 31, 1978: President Carter signs the National Climate Program 
Act into law.

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-92/pdf/STATUTE-92-Pg601.pdf

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