[✔️] Feb 9 2024 Global Warming News | One year over 1.5, Prof Hayhoe, How hurt by heat, Nature survivability, 2003 John Kerry runs

[Richard Pauli]

/*February*//*9 , 2024*/

/[  from BBC news ]/
*World's first year-long breach of key 1.5C warming limit*
Mark Poynting, BBC News

    New data suggests that global warming has exceeded 1.5C across an
    entire 12-month period “for the first time”, reports BBC News. The
    article notes that this year-long breach of 1.5C, as recorded by the
    EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), does not break the
    Paris Agreement 1.5C limit – as that refers to long-term warming –
    but it “does bring the world closer to doing so”. [See Carbon
    Brief’s recent interactive about the 1.5C limit for more details.]
    Scientists said it was a “significant milestone” that highlighted
    the challenge of keeping the 1.5C long-term limit in reach, reports
    the Daily Telegraph. The temperature rise in the past year has been
    influenced by El Niño, the article notes, a regularly occurring
    global climate phenomenon that triggers warmer ocean temperatures in
    the tropical Pacific. According to C3S, the global average
    temperature for the specific period between February last year and
    last month was 1.52C above the 1850-1900 baseline, reports the
    Times. Currently, the long-term average is 1.25C above
    pre-industrial times, but with carbon emissions rising “it seems
    certain that, on this measure, the 1.5C limit will soon be breached,
    probably around 2030”, reports New Scientist. According to C3S,
    January was the eighth consecutive month with record-high monthly
    temperatures, reports Bloomberg. In January, global temperatures hit
    1.66C above the average during pre-industrial times, it notes.
    January 2024 broke the previous record for the warmest first month
    of the year set in 2020 by 0.12C, adds the Associated Press. The
    records are based on computer-generated analyses and according to
    the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, “using billions of measurements from
    satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world",
    C3S notes in its press release. [It is worth noting that the
    observed global temperature record produced by Berkeley Earth
    estimated that the average global temperature for 2023 had already
    hit 1.5C, as reported by Carbon Brief last month.] The new World
    Meteorological Organisation chief has said that the rate of climate
    change is accelerating, reports a separate Associated Press piece.
    Warming has triggered more Arctic cold outbreaks in North America
    and Europe, secretary general Celeste Saulo told the outlet, it
    notes. The record temperatures in January and over the last year
    were also covered by France24, Reuters, the New York Times, the
    Financial Times and others.

https://preview.mailerlite.io/emails/webview/249617/112601310158652427

- -

/[ BBC interviews Katharine Hayhoe - 4 min audio - speaking carefully 
"Every bit of warming matters"]/
*New evidence of a warming world*
Is the world warming faster than we thought and are current targets 
signed-off by world leaders under the Paris climate summit agreements 
enough to tackle the most damaging effects of global warming in the 
years to come?

New evidence from the EU's climate service, Copernicus, highlights that 
for the first time, the world was 1.5 degrees warmer than pre-industrial 
levels for a whole year.

Keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees was the target set at the Paris 
summit less than a decade ago. A combination of greenhouse gas emissions 
and dramatic sea temperature rises are to blame, scientists say.

Newsday heard what this new data means from Professor Katherine Hayhoe, 
chief climate scientist at the Nature Conservancy in Houston, Texas and 
author of ‘Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in 
a Divided World’:

"What it serves as is yet another reminder that as long as our carbon 
emissions continue to grow temperatures will continue to increase... 
every bit of warming matters. Global leaders need to realise this is not 
about saving the planet, it's about saving us. The can cannot be kicked 
down the road further, there is no road left."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0h9pcq2



/[ how is increased heat going to hurt us?  video reading of the recent 
paper ]/
*Human Survivability and Liveability to Heat and Humidity Stress in our 
Warming World: Not good.*
Paul Beckwith
Feb 7, 2024
I chat about a recent paper that measures human endurance to high heat 
and humidity, and finds that it is much lower than we think.

In fact, it is much worse that the theoretical 35C wetbulb temperature 
even for healthy individuals, and as we age we lose our tolerance to 
high heat and humidity. Sun exposure and lack of wind also worsen 
things, as does underlying medical conditions, prescription medications, 
and obesity.

Also, the higher the level of activity of a person the greater the loss 
of ability of the person to tolerate and withstand the combined heat and 
humidity stress on the human body.

Peer-reviewed scientific study:
“A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and 
liveability to heat in a changing climate”: 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s4146...

*“Abstract*

    Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat
    with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold
    without integrating variations in human physiology.

    This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for
    young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current
    estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe,
    sustained activity) under current and future climates.

    Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of
    risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions.

    Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8–34.1 °C (young)
    and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C.

    For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2–13.1 °C lower than 35 °C
    in dry conditions.

    Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most
    dramatically with age (2.5–3.0 METs lower for older adults).

    Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the
    present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming.”

    *Introduction*
    “Adverse health impacts of extreme heat exposure are expected to
    rise globally due to a warming climate, urban-induced warming, and a
    growing and aging population. The concerns for human health,
    productivity, and well-being are greater in humid climates and for
    vulnerable populations, such as older adults, unhoused, and/or those
    with chronic diseases.

    Therefore, robust models to assess current heat-health impacts and
    project future risks must incorporate specific vulnerabilities and
    diverse environmental contexts.

    Methods to project future heat stress risk can be broadly
    categorized into epidemiology/econometric and physiology-based
    approaches, which have contrasting benefits and limitations.

    Epidemiology/econometric approaches are empirical in nature,
    analyzing time series of historical temperature paired with
    particular health consequences (e.g., morbidity or mortality) across
    populations to determine heat-health relationships.

    These studies often find higher rates of cardiovascular and
    respiratory deaths associated with high ambient temperatures. Future
    health burdens from heat can be estimated by applying these
    relationships to climate model outputs (i.e., daily temperature)
    under different warming scenarios.

    Empirical approaches are based on real-life outcomes and the range
    of realistic living conditions, and they can explore the cumulative
    effects of exposures over multiple days.

    However, two limitations for climate change projections include 1)
    assumptions needed to extrapolate results to warmer temperatures
    than observed in the historical sample and 2) ambiguity regarding
    the role of humidity in heat-health outcomes.

    While some epidemiological studies find a relationship between
    mortality in the heat and humidity, most find minimal associations
    between humidity and heat-health outcomes. Given that specific
    humidity is robustly expected to increase with global warming, this
    uncertainty is a key research gap for epidemiology-based projections
    of future heat stress.”

Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and 
videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCzRAwJx1VQ

- -

/[  here is the PDF format from Nature Communications ]/

*A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and 
liveability to heat in a changing clim*ate

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/1

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/2

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/3

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/4

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/6

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/figures/7

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5.pdf


/[The news archive -  ]/
/*February 9, 2003 */
*February 9, 2003: In a speech at Harvard University, Democratic 
presidential candidate and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry declares:*

    "We should be the world's environmental leader. Our global
    environmental policy should be driven by our convictions, not our
    constraints. America has not led but fled on the issue of global
    warming. The first President Bush was willing to lead on this issue.
    But the second President Bush's declaration that the Kyoto Protocol
    was simply Dead on Arrival spoke for itself - and it spoke in dozens
    of languages as his words whipped instantly around the globe. What
    the Administration failed to see was that Kyoto was not just an
    agreement; it represented the resolve of 160 nations working
    together over 10 years. It was a good faith effort - and the United
    States just dismissed it. We didn't aim to mend it. We didn't aim to
    sit down with our allies and find a compromise. We didn't aim for a
    new dialogue. The Administration was simply ready to aim and fire,
    and the target they hit was our international reputation. This
    country can and should aim higher than preserving its place as the
    world's largest unfettered polluter. We should assert, not abandon
    our leadership in addressing global economic degradation and the
    warming of the atmosphere that if left unchecked, will do untold
    damage to our coastline and our Great Plains, our cities and our
    economy."

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/issues/kerr020903spenv.html





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