[✔️] Feb 20 2024 Global Warming News | greatest risks now, tipping point lecture, why underestimated, Willing majority ready to act, 2013 John Kerry
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Tue Feb 20 07:42:43 EST 2024
/*February*//*20, 2024*/
/["These are the greatest risks at the moment" - triggers for greater
abrupt changes ]/
*TPDS: Global Tipping Points Report 2023: Discussion with Section Leads*
World Climate Research Programme
Dec 19, 2023
This webinar is part of the AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth, WCRP
Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity, and partners discussion
series on tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the
Earth.
The Global Tipping Points Report was launched on 6th December 2023
provides an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of
both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and
society. In this webinar several Section Leads presented key insights
from this report.
Speakers:
Introduction by moderator: Laurie Laybourn Langton (University of Exeter)
Earth System Tipping Points: David Armstrong McKay (University of
Exeter/Stockholm Resilience Centre)
Tipping Points Impacts: Steven Lade (Australian National
University/Stockholm Resilience Centre)
Governance of Earth System Tipping Points: Manjana Milkoreit (University
of Oslo)
Positive Tipping Points in Technology, Economy and Society: Steve Smith
(University of Exeter) and Caroline Zimm (IIASA/Earth Commission)
Q&A moderated by Laurie Laybourn Langton (University of Exeter)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmmBgO0ePYg
- -
Read more here:
https://global-tipping-points-report-2023-discussions.confetti.events/
- -
/[ Last year's excellent tipping point lecture - especially 24 mins. ]/
*David Armstrong Mckay on Tipping points in the climate system
Researchers Desk*
Jan 29, 2023
Dr. David Armstrong Mckay. David will talk with us about his findings
concerning how exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple
climate tipping points.
Host: Alasdair Skelton
Professor of Geochemistry and Petrology
Chairperson of Researchers’ Desk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ik74dcRGwMk
/[ from Carbon Brief - the willing majority is ready and willing ]/
*Interview: Why global support for climate action is ‘systematically
underestimated’*
16 February 2024
SIMON EVANS
There is near-universal global public support for climate action, yet
people systematically underestimate the commitment of their peers,
according to a new study.
The research, published in Nature Climate Change, is based on a
globally-representative sample of nearly 130,000 people in 125 countries.
It finds that 86% of people “support pro-climate social norms” and 89%
would like their governments to do more to tackle warming. Moreover, 69%
say they would be willing to contribute 1% of their income to addressing
climate change.
Yet respondents also “systematically underestimate the willingness of
their fellow citizens to act”, according to the paper, creating a
potentially challenging “perception gap”.
Carbon Brief interviewed the authors of the study to find out more. The
questions and their answers are reproduced in full, below. An abridged
version of the transcript was first published in DeBriefed, Carbon
Brief’s weekly email newsletter. Sign up for free.
*Carbon Brief: Your survey of nearly 130,000 people in 125 countries
found “almost universal” support (86%) for climate action, with 89%
wanting more from governments. Were you surprised? *
*Prof Peter Andre, Prof Teodora Boneva, Prof Felix Chopra and Prof Armin
Falk: *While we did expect to find high levels of approval for climate
action in some of the countries that we studied, we were indeed
surprised to find that the percentage of the population approving of
pro-climate social norms and demanding more political action from their
national government is very high in almost all countries in our sample.
In 119 of 125 countries, the proportion of individuals who state that
people in their country “should try to fight global warming” exceeds
two-thirds. In more than half the countries in our sample, the demand
for more government action even exceeds 90%.
We were probably misled by the same pessimism that we found to be so
widespread across the globe. 69% of the world’s population is willing to
contribute 1% of their monthly income to fight global warming. A broad
majority of people across the globe is willing to pay a personal cost.
In fact, in 114 out of 125 countries, a majority of respondents is
willing to fight climate change. However, in 110 out of 125 countries,
the majority thinks that they are in the minority: When asked about how
many people in their country are willing to contribute, most respondents
think that less than half of their fellow citizens would be willing to
contribute.
[The figure below, taken from the new paper, shows: (top left) the share
of respondents willing to contribute none, up to 1% or at least 1% of
their income to tackling climate change; (top right) the same result
broken down by country; (middle panel) the share believing that “people
should try to fight global warming”; (lower panel) the share wanting
governments to do more.]
https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/41558_2024_1925_Fig1_HTML.png
Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for
climate action
*CB: A large majority (69%) said they would be willing to contribute 1%
of their income to fight global warming. Do you think this would hold
for specific policies, such as a carbon tax? *
*PA, TB, FC and AF: *The popular support for specific policies will
depend on many details that we had to abstract from in the global
survey. How effective is the policy? Is it perceived as fair? Who
supports the policy in the public debate? So one cannot simply equate
support in the survey with support for specific policy proposals. In a
representative US sample, we do find that the general demand for more
political action is strongly correlated with demand for specific climate
policies, such as a carbon tax on fossil fuels, regulatory limits on the
CO2 emissions of coal-fired plants, or funding for research on renewable
energy.
Overall, we think the important conclusion is the following: The large
majority of people across the world expresses a general willingness to
make costly contributions to fight climate change. This means that we
can move the debate forward and focus on how we can best tap into this
broad willingness to contribute to best tackle the challenges posed by
climate change.
*CB: There has been a resurgence of anti-climate rhetoric from
politicians and the media in many countries. Do you think public opinion
has shifted since your survey in 2021-22? *
*PA, TB, FC and AF:* We do not detect any clear time trend within our
samples from 2021 and 2022, but do not have data for the most recent
months. If we were to speculate, we would not want to fall victim to the
same pessimism one more time. We would expect that a large majority
would still be in favor of climate action today, and this seems to be in
line with more recent research. The year 2023 has been confirmed as the
warmest calendar year in global temperature data records going back to
1850. In our study, we find that annual average temperatures strongly
correlate with the proportion of people being willing to support climate
action. Our best guess is that the support for climate action has
increased rather than decreased in the last two years.
*CB: You found stronger willingness to contribute among respondents in
poorer, hotter and more vulnerable countries. Why do you think richer
people are less willing to pay their way? *
*PA, TB, FC and AF: *Two potential explanations come to mind. First,
richer countries are still strongly dependent on fossil fuels. The
adaptation costs could therefore be perceived as relatively high and the
required lifestyle changes as too drastic. At the same time, richer
countries may be more resilient: A country’s GDP per capita reflects its
economic capacity to cope with climate change. The most direct and
immediate consequences are likely to be concentrated in more vulnerable
countries, which have fewer resources to mitigate the negative
consequences of the climate crisis. However, it’s important to stress
the positive message: the support for climate action is large even in
the richest countries in our sample. In the wealthiest quintile of
countries, the average proportion of people willing to contribute 1% is
62%.
*CB: You found people systematically underestimated the willingness of
their peers to contribute to climate action. Why do you think that is –
and how could it be changed?
*
*PA, TB, FC and AF: *The reasons for this perception gap are likely to
be manifold. In the past, media and public discussions have given a lot
of focus to the small number of climate change sceptics and have fallen
prey to the efforts of special interest groups. Moreover, climate change
is difficult to tackle. People might mistakenly infer that the slow
progress in combating climate change is due to a widespread lack of
personal commitment.
In our view, correcting this perception gap is more important than
understanding its origin. Humans are (what behavioral scientists call)
“conditional cooperators”. They contribute more to the public good if
they believe that others contribute as well. For this reason, pessimism
about others’ contributions is harmful. It can constitute a critical
obstacle for climate action. We thus conclude in the paper that,
“[r]ather than echoing the concerns of a vocal minority that opposes any
form of climate action, we need to effectively communicate that the vast
majority of people around the world are willing to act against climate
change and expect their national government to act”. We hope that our
study sparks a debate on this topic, and increases awareness about the
large global support for climate action.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/interview-why-global-support-for-climate-action-is-systematically-underestimated/
/[The news archive - John Kerry activism]/
/*February 20, 2013 */
February 20, 2013:
In his first major policy speech as Secretary of State, John Kerry
directly addresses the risks of climate change.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqJt_WSGoVI
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/
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