[✔️] Feb 23 2024 Global Warming News | Existential Threat, Republican climate action, Scientists more activist, Small island music, 2014 Obama wildfire budgets

[Richard Pauli]

/*February*//*23, 2024*/

/[ 8 min video message from top scientist ]*
*/*Johan Rockström - Existential Threat
*Peter Carter
Feb 21, 2024
Climate expert Johan Rockström on how the combined climate and 
ecological crisis- is an existential threat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_ve5IvG1Ts

*
*

*
*

/[ from Politico ]/
*Trump vs. an emerging Republican climate strategy*
“We’re not dependent on a standard-bearer outside of the House,” insists 
Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), who founded the 82-member Conservative 
Climate Caucus.
By EMMA DUMAIN and TIMOTHY CAMA
02/21/2024

Former President Donald Trump’s hard-line positions on climate change 
aren’t deterring some members of his party from backing policies to stop 
global warming.

But their challenges are likely to grow as the GOP is poised to nominate 
a presidential candidate openly hostile to climate science — after years 
in which Republicans have been divided over whether their party should 
address the problem at all.
A Trump victory would likely strengthen the hand of the dominant strain 
of party members and House leaders who only want to attack Democrats on 
climate — not develop their own policies. Still, the small but growing 
number of Republicans advocating action say they’ll stay in the fight, 
with some saying Trump may actually be a net positive.

“We’re not dependent on a standard-bearer outside of the House,” said 
Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), the chair and founder of the 82-member 
Conservative Climate Caucus who is now running for Senate.

“I don’t think it’s a surprise to anybody that charting the course as a 
Republican to talk about climate has never been easy,” Curtis said, “and 
so if there are headwinds, we’ll keep pushing forward.”

Trump’s ascendance could do more than just create headwinds. The climate 
caucus, which represents a little more than a third of House 
Republicans, already lost a pivotal ally when lawmakers deposed 
then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year.

Now, the likely Republican nominee for president has shown no signs of 
moving away from his denial of climate change science and his rejection 
of major action to reduce emissions.

He pronounced, as recently as December, that “the only global warming we 
should be worrying about … is nuclear warming” — a reference to the 
threat of an “arms race” with foreign adversaries. He has previously 
called climate change a “make-believe problem” and “nonexistent,” as 
well as a “hoax.”

Trump has repeatedly called for the elimination of the clean energy tax 
credits contained in the Inflation Reduction Act that are contributing 
to major green job booms around the country, including in 
Republican-held districts.

He also promised at an event this fall to slash incentives around 
electric vehicle production specifically, saying, “You can be loyal to 
American labor, or you can be loyal to the environmental lunatics.”
Meanwhile, hundreds of conservatives, including many who worked in the 
last Trump administration, have penned a 900-page memo, dubbed Project 
2025, to preview some of the actions Trump could take if returned to the 
White House.

Recommendations include dismantling a carbon capture tax credit — 
technology many Republicans support because it could allow fossil 
fuel-burning plants to remain active while also reducing emissions — and 
gutting a program to assist cash-strapped nuclear reactors — at a time 
when Republicans are touting nuclear power as an alternative fuel source 
to oil, gas and coal.

It all threatens to undermine the work many Republicans have done lately 
to try to improve their party’s image on climate issues, specifically to 
show that they care about actively solving the climate crisis...
- -
A long-lapsed bipartisan House Climate Solutions Caucus was relaunched 
last summer to bring Republicans to the table with Democrats to talk 
about “combat[ing] climate change while also protecting the economic 
prosperity of the United States.”

And across the Capitol, a growing number of Republicans are embracing a 
policy that would compel foreign trade partners to pay tariffs on the 
carbon intensity of certain imported industrial goods, while advocacy 
groups catering to conservative climate policies are expanding as well...
- -
Ultimately, it could be up to individual Republicans to chart that 
course to differentiate themselves from Trump.

When McCarthy was House minority leader, the California Republican 
directed a task force to develop an energy plank that would become a 
part of the GOP’s platform to retake control of the House in 2022. He is 
credited with having created an opening for his party to move away from 
climate science denialism.

Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), whom McCarthy put in charge of that 2022 
task force, said new Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) won’t be following 
that example.

“I think that you’ve lost an open-minded leader on the Republican side 
in terms of McCarthy,” he said. “I don’t think you’re going to have a 
Mike Johnson or a [Majority Whip Tom] Emmer or a [Majority Leader Steve] 
Scalise pick up on the baton on that one and say, ‘Oh, we’re going to 
lead on that one.’”

Graves added it would be “a huge mistake for Republicans to forgo, give 
up or cave on this fight, because the data and the science on this issue 
is so much on our side, and I think it’s a battle we should actually 
lean into.”

Republicans have repeatedly pointed to statistics showing that U.S. 
energy is produced more cleanly than anywhere else in the world and that 
domestic greenhouse gas emissions have decreased as a result.

The GOP also tends to tout innovation as the solution to climate change 
in an alternative to Democratic-style climate regulations and efforts to 
transition the economy away from fossil fuels.

Conservative climate and clean energy groups, which have largely stayed 
out of the presidential primaries, support this approach, while 
environmentalists have long regarded it as insufficient for meeting the 
scale of the crisis.
*
‘Mixed bag’*
Johnson did not respond to a request for comment about whether he would 
be putting together a similar plank ahead of the 2024 elections.

Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), chair of the House Natural Resources 
Committee and a trained forester, said, “There’s nothing formal in the 
works that I’m aware of.”

But he added, “It’s important we get our message out about what real 
conservation is.”

Westerman also told POLITICO’s E&E News he wasn’t familiar with what 
Trump has said on the subject.

Graves, when asked whether Trump’s climate talking points complicate the 
GOP’s message, asserted that although the former president “has said 
things against climate,” his environmental policies are solid.

Other Republicans are likewise bullish about Trump’s record.

“I think we’re aligned,” said House Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy 
McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.). “Good energy policy is good climate policy. 
And when America is energy independent, when America’s producing and 
when America’s innovating on energy solutions, that’s helping the climate.”

Quill Robinson, a senior adviser at ConservAmerica, a group seeking to 
get conservatives to back environmental policies, agreed it was 
worthwhile to distinguish between rhetoric and actual policy proposals 
when it comes to parsing Trump’s positions.

“President Biden frames the Inflation Reduction Act as a policy to 
restore American manufacturing, reduce reliance on China and fight 
climate change; President Trump is on board with the first two 
priorities. In fact, they have consistently been his top priorities,” 
Robinson said. “Discerning semantic and substantive differences is key. 
The focus should be on policy impact.”

“It’s the pollution, not the energy source, that’s the problem.”

Heather Reams, Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions.

For Republicans, “it’s the pollution, not the energy source, that’s the 
problem,” said Heather Reams, president of Citizens for Responsible 
Energy Solutions.

“I think that President Trump has some alignment there — not perfectly — 
but has some alignment that I think we can absolutely work with.”

Trump’s anti-China policies could also be a boon to clean energy by 
helping grow domestic manufacturing, Reams added, where goods are made 
with lower carbon footprints.

Hayes, of Lot Sixteen, predicted Trump could loosen guidelines for who 
can leverage the IRA’s hydrogen tax credits. Some critics of the Biden 
administration’s interpretation, climate hawks included, have complained 
the guidance is so rigid it could hinder efforts to lower carbon pollution.

He said Trump also might unlock federal lands now being protected from 
non-conservation activities, an alarming proposition for 
environmentalists who don’t want to create more opportunities for oil 
and gas development but a welcome move for those looking to build new 
renewable projects.

“I’m not trying to tell you that a Trump presidency would be better for 
clean energy,” Hayes said. “But I am saying there’s more nuance involved 
than a lot of people seem to think. It’s a mixed bag.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/more-republicans-now-want-climate-action-but-trump-could-derail-everything-00142313

*
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*
*

/[ from the journal *nature* ]/
*Scientists under arrest: the researchers taking action over climate change*
Fed up with a lack of political progress in solving the climate problem, 
some researchers are becoming activists to slow global warming.
By Daniel Grossman
21 February 2024

Climate scientist Peter Kalmus is freaked out. And he thinks everyone 
should be just as alarmed as he is over the state of the planet.

When he was a graduate student in 2006, Kalmus was studying astrophysics 
and says he was “blissfully ignorant” about the dangers of climate 
change. But then he learnt how the greenhouse effect worked — how carbon 
dioxide pollution from the use of fossil fuels is effectively trapping 
heat in the atmosphere and warming the planet at an accelerating pace.

Over time, Kalmus was plagued by the increasing certainty that, “if we 
continue burning fossil fuels at this pace, that will render large parts 
of the planet uninhabitable”. By 2012, he had abandoned his budding 
career in astrophysics to pursue work at NASA’s Jet Propulsion 
Laboratory in Pasadena, California, on the impact of intensifying 
temperatures on humans and other species.

Kalmus became worried that the accumulation of evidence was not leading 
the world to necessary action. “Policymakers in general are not 
responding appropriately to the science that we’ve been giving them.” 
Hence the freak out. (Kalmus stresses that his views are his own, not 
NASA’s.)

He decided he needed to do more to confront the problem. On 6 April 
2022, Kalmus, two other scientists and an engineer blockaded a Los 
Angeles branch of JP Morgan Chase, an investment banking firm that 
invests heavily in fossil-fuel extraction. “I’m willing to take a risk 
for this gorgeous planet and my son,” he said to a small crowd and in a 
video posted on Facebook, earning himself some 700,000 page views. He 
was arrested for trespassing. The protest was part of a global effort 
that day by members of the international environmentalist group 
Scientist Rebellion, which claims the event was “the largest civil 
disobedience campaign by scientists in history”.

Researchers are noticing a rising tide of anger and action by climate 
scientists such as Kalmus, who are frustrated that ever-more dire 
forecasts and extreme events related to climate change aren’t provoking 
an effective response. They are “increasingly becoming aware that while 
science is necessary for moving towards policy-making, it is 
insufficient to get to policy-making on its own, and science cannot 
create political will”, said Dana Fisher, a sociologist at American 
University in Washington DC. Her book, Saving Ourselves: From Climate 
Shocks to Climate Action, which was published earlier this month, argues 
that this evergrowing group has become a ‘radical flank’ of concerned 
climate scientists who are doing things such as vandalizing art work, 
blocking entrances to buildings and interrupting traffic.

These scientists are, she says, “getting blue in the face trying to use 
the normal channels through which we usually express how our science has 
relevance to the world”.

*Eighty hours on a train*
Early last December, a train pulled slowly out of Boston’s South 
Station. In the dining car, earth scientist Rose Abramoff was starting 
an 80-hour cross-country train ride to the 2023 conference of the 
American Geophysical Union (AGU) in San Francisco, California. Out of 
concern for her carbon footprint, Abramoff no longer flies even if, as 
with this trip, the ground journey takes ten times as long and costs 
more. I joined her for the first leg of the trip.

The lengthy journey gave her a lot of time to think about what happened 
a year before at the previous AGU annual meeting. At the very start of 
the conference, in a giant lecture hall, she and Kalmus leapt onto the 
stage and unfurled a banner for Scientist Rebellion. Kalmus yelled, “As 
scientists we have tremendous leverage, but we need to use it.” Abramoff 
pleaded, “Please. Please. Find a way to take action.”

As they had anticipated, an official escorted them out of the hall. 
Their protest lasted all of 30 seconds. The AGU also confiscated their 
conference badges and officially expelled them from the rest of the 
meeting — a reaction that Abramoff says felt extreme. “Being asked to 
leave the session would have been a reasonable response,” Abramoff said 
during the train ride, sounding bitter. More than 2,000 researchers 
urged the AGU to reverse its sanctions on Abramoff and Kalmus.

That wasn’t the only consequence for Abramoff, who was then an associate 
scientist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. Alerted of the 
event, Oak Ridge fired her. In her termination letter, she was accused 
of the “misuse of government resources” and of violating the “Code of 
Business Ethics and Conduct”. She says, in her defence, that her 
government work at the conference that week was finished by the time she 
took to the stage, and so the protest was done in her free time. (Kalmus 
did not lose his position, although Jet Propulsion Laboratory officials 
issued him a warning.)

A year later, in 2023, Abramoff, who now continues her research as an 
independent researcher in Maine, and Kalmus were again at the AGU 
conference (Kalmus joined remotely). But this time, the AGU ran four 
official sessions on climate activism and grief over climate change. In 
an e-mail to Nature, an AGU press officer said that removing Abramoff 
and Kalmus from the 2022 meeting was appropriate, citing the 
organization’s code of conduct. After the incident, the “AGU doubled 
down on making members aware of new opportunities”, such as activism. 
The AGU also stressed the need for civility, which rules out disrupting 
meeting sessions.

Abramoff studied biology and dance for her undergraduate degree and then 
earned a PhD in ecology. Her political awakening occurred in 2019, while 
peer-reviewing several chapters of the latest report of the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). She had never before 
focused so intently on the effects that the climate crisis has had on 
the planet and its inhabitants. “In every single system is evidence of 
fundamental major breakdown that has implications for human health, for 
ecosystem services.” The document’s style, she says, betrayed no sense 
of existential urgency of the dangers at hand. “My job can’t just be to 
calmly document the end of the world.”

While talking about that experience on the train, Abramoff welled up and 
wiped away a tear. It’s the third time in eight months that a climate 
scientist or climate negotiator has choked up during an interview with 
me, something I haven’t witnessed before in my 25 years of climate 
reporting.

After working on the IPCC report, Abramoff decided that she needed to 
take more concrete action. On 6 April 2022, she chained herself to the 
White House fences during a climate protest. She was arrested on the 
same day that Kalmus was arrested on the other side of the continent. 
There were news stories, with pictures of her dressed in a white lab 
coat. She draws on her background as a performer during protests. “The 
types of things that get media attention are a little theatrical and 
visually interesting.”

Since her arrest two years ago, Abramoff has blockaded banks and the 
White House Correspondents’ Dinner, glued herself to a fence at a 
private jet terminal, occupied a state Capitol building and tried to 
shut down the construction of a natural-gas pipeline. Seven of her 14 
actions have led to arrests.

*Political awakening*
Although Abramoff’s activist rap sheet is an outlier among scientists, 
many researchers agree with her that the climate crisis needs an urgent 
response. A survey conducted last year of 9,220 researchers around the 
world, from a range of scientific and academic disciplines, found that 
more than 90% agree that “fundamental changes to social, political, and 
economic systems” are needed1. Fabian Dablander, one of three 
postdoctoral researchers at University of Amsterdam and Maastricht 
University in the Netherlands who led the research, says its the largest 
of only three global surveys that he is aware of regarding scientists’ 
attitudes on climate.

The study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, surveyed researchers in 
115 countries who had authored papers in 545 leading peer-reviewed 
journals between 2020 and 2022. Dablander cautions that the results are 
probably biased in favour of the concerned scientists, because they 
would be the most motivated to fill out the survey, which was sent to 
almost 250,000 authors. “I’m not sure how big this bias is exactly,” he 
says.

Overall, 78% of the respondents had discussed climate change with 
someone other than a colleague; 29% had engaged in climate advocacy, 23% 
had joined legal protests and 10% — nearly 900 scientists — had engaged 
in civil disobedience.

Political engagement varied by discipline and country. Scientists in 
Oceania were more likely to take civic actions (such as joining a 
climate protest). Europe and North America are virtually tied for second 
place. Scientists in Asia were least likely to engage in most of the 
civic actions included in the survey, Dablander found.

A follow-up analysis of the survey data shows that scientists who were 
involved ‘a great deal’ in climate research were about 2.5 times more 
likely (37% of participants) to have joined protests, and at least 4 
times more likely (18% of participants) to have engaged in civil 
disobedience than were non-climate researchers2.

Another survey also found high levels of engagement among climate 
researchers. In a 2021 study of 1,100 climate scientists, 90% had 
participated in at least one form of public engagement on climate 
issues, including doing press interviews, briefing policymakers and 
being active on social media over the past year3.

Viktoria Cologna, the lead author of the survey, says that long-held 
taboos against political participation by scientists on climate issues 
are waning. Cologna, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of 
Zurich in Switzerland, has previously been a member of Scientists for 
Future, the scientists’ wing of Fridays for the Future, which is a 
global student movement inspired by environmental activist Greta 
Thunberg. “I definitely see — also in my own circles, both within social 
science and natural science circles — that scientists are becoming more 
vocal; they are joining more protests,” she says.

In the past, many scientists worried that they would lose credibility by 
taking political stances. But Cologna didn’t find that to be true in her 
study, which also surveyed 884 members of the public in the United 
States and Germany. She and her co-authors reported that 70% of Germans 
and 74% of Americans approve of scientists advocating for 
climate-related policies.

The survey of researchers also uncovered hints that people who engage in 
advocacy do not lose the respect of their colleagues. It found that 73% 
of German climate scientists and 59% of US climate scientists agree that 
people in their field should “actively advocate for specific 
climate-related policies”.

A similar finding emerged from a 2020 survey about political engagement 
of 2,208 members of the US Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). Less 
than 6% of respondents thought that scientists should ‘rarely’ or 
‘never’ be politically active. Fernando Tormos-Aponte, a sociologist at 
the University of Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania who led the team that 
conducted the study, says that a cohort of scientists became politicized 
by policies widely seen as anti-scientific during the administration of 
former US president Donald Trump. These scientists continued their 
activism even when Trump left office. “The thing that persists is 
climate. There’s a sense of urgency around that, that’s almost 
unparallel to any other issue.”

Greta Dargie, a geographer at the University of Leeds, UK, is one of 
many climate researchers who have ramped up their activism in the past 
few years. Last year she was arrested, for the first time in her life, 
for deliberately blocking traffic in London at an event organized by the 
British environmental activist group Just Stop Oil. Then, in the same 
week, she was arrested again, for the same offence.

Some researchers worry that the more extreme forms of activism can have 
negative consequences. Jörg Geldmacher, a geochemist at the GEOMAR 
Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel in Germany, says he doesn’t 
take part in more aggressive actions, such as vandalizing buildings, 
because they could be counterproductive. “If the masses are against it, 
because of these extreme activities, then I don’t know if that is very 
helpful for the movement,” he says.

Instead, he is an active member of the German branch of Scientists for 
Future. Geldmacher joins legal demonstrations frequently, attends 
monthly meetings that send ideas to local politicians for conserving 
energy and often speaks at schools and to the general public about the 
climate crisis.

*Climate grief*
Halfway through the 2023 AGU gathering in San Francisco, I saw Abramoff 
again, this time in a crowd at the Chieftain Irish Pub. She had just 
come from the ‘climate grief circle’, an officially approved event that 
she and Kalmus had organized. A few dozen researchers sat in several 
intimate groups and discussed their feelings about confronting the 
deterioration of Earth’s systems each day and, for some, the fears they 
couldn’t share with their children. On the train, Abramoff had said that 
these circles serve both as group therapy and as motivation. “It’s 
extremely calming and fortifying,” she says.

At the pub, a couple of dozen activists traded their stories and tips 
for organizing protests. Noah Liguori-Bills, a first-year 
atmospheric-science PhD student at North Carolina State University in 
Raleigh, received a short pep talk from Abramoff. Afterwards he said 
that this was his first scientific conference, and that he hadn’t 
expected to meet any radicals. But then he stumbled on an unsanctioned 
guerrilla-theatre performance on the pavement right outside the 
conference. It promoted one of the official activist events. The mixer 
at the pub is “definitely one of the most exciting things I’ve done 
here”, he says. “I’m really impressed with how committed everyone is.”

Liguori-Bills says he expects to join a branch of Scientist Rebellion 
when he goes home. He says that it’s unlikely that he’ll face serious 
consequences, such as what happened to Abramoff. But he’s willing to 
take the risk. “I think it’s worth it. The whole world’s at stake.”

Nature 626, 710-712 (2024)
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-00480-3

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00480-3




/[ Gee-whiz report on AI and weather forecasting - 8 min video ]/
*Can AI help us predict extreme weather?*
Vox
Feb 21, 2024
AI models are starting to revolutionize weather forecasting.

We’ve learned how to predict weather over the past century by 
understanding the science that governs Earth’s atmosphere and harnessing 
enough computing power to generate global forecasts. But in just the 
past three years, AI models from companies like Google, Huawei, and 
Nvidia that use historical weather data have been releasing forecasts 
rivaling those created through traditional forecasting methods.

This video explains the promise and challenges of these new models built 
on artificial intelligence rather than numerical forecasting, 
particularly as it relates to the ability to foresee extreme weather.

Here are the papers that describe the models mentioned in the video.

    Google’s GraphCast:
    https://www.science.org/stoken/author-tokens/ST-1550/full

    Huawei’s Pangu-Weather:
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06185-3

    Nvidia’s FourCastNet: https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.11214

Here is the announcement of the ERA5 dataset, released by the European 
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in 2020:
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3803

We interviewed Dr. Aaron Hill over email for this video. Hill is 
involved in developing responsible AI for environmental science via AI2ES:
https://www.ai2es.org

Google has also developed a weather forecasting model called Nowcasting, 
which is already embedded in its weather products specifically for 
short-term precipitation forecasts: 
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/nowcasting-the-next-hour-of-rain/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hU4viZzTaRc



/[ Global warming related music ]
/*TA'U TAMA - Small Island Big Song ft' Vaiteani & Luc*
Small Island Big Song 小島大歌
Premiered Aug 31, 2021
Now available on all music platforms https://bfan.link/tau-tama

“What will we tell our children if we fail to protect our planet?” - 
Vaiteani & Luc

Small Island Big Song is a music, film, live project featuring musicians 
across 16 island nations of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, creating a 
contemporary and relevant musical statement of a region in the frontline 
of cultural and environmental challenges.

Luc of the Tahitian duo Vaiteani wrote TA'U TAMA over his concerns for 
the world we are passing onto future generations.

TA'U TAMA is a collaboration, with - TAHITI (& FRANCE)
Luc Totterwitz - Composition, Vocals, Guitar, Udu & Kayamb
Vaiteani - Vocals, Tahitian Chant
Poemoana - Tahitian dance

TAIWAN
漂流出口 Putad (Amis) - Amis improvised Vocals
Sauljaljui 戴曉君 (Paiwan) Mortar and Pestle & dance
- -
PRODUCTION CREDITS
Directed & Edited by Tim Cole
Produced by BaoBao Chen 陳玟臻
Translations : Albert Guilloux-Chevalier (reo maohi) / Vaiteani (english)
Music produced and mixed by Tim Cole
- -
Originally created for 2021 World Village Festival, Finland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWg1ryOK2eg/
/



/[The news archive -  ]/
/*February 23, 2014 */
February 23, 2014:
• The New York Times reports:

    "President Obama’s annual budget request to Congress will propose a
    significant change in how the government pays to fight wildfires,
    administration officials said, a move that they say reflects the
    ways in which climate change is increasing the risk for and cost of
    those fires.

    "The wildfire funding shift is one in a series of recent White House
    actions related to climate change as Mr. Obama tries to highlight
    the issue and build political support for his administration’s more
    muscular policies, like curbing carbon emissions from coal-fired
    power plants. On Monday, Mr. Obama plans to describe his proposal at
    a meeting in Washington with governors of Western states that have
    been ravaged recently by severe drought and wildfires."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/us/obama-to-propose-shift-in-wildfire-funding.html




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