[✔️] Jan 2, 2024 Global Warming News | Oil into cash, Jennifer Francis, Global migration, Joseph Tainter, US Climate migration, Worse before better, 2014 Snow and willful ignorance

Tue Jan 2 08:02:36 EST 2024

/*January*//*2, 2024*/

/[ "follow the money", or "Show me the money" ]
/*Big five oil companies to reward shareholders with record payouts
*BP, Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies to distribute more 
than $100bn despite public outrage*
*Jillian Ambrose
Mon 1 Jan 2024
The world’s five largest listed oil companies are expected to reward 
their investors with record payouts of more than $100bn (£79bn) for 2023 
against a backdrop of growing public outrage at fossil fuel profits.

The five “super-majors” – BP, Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil and 
TotalEnergies – showered shareholders with dividend payments and share 
buybacks worth $104bn in the 2022 calendar year, according to the 
Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

The bumper payouts followed a year of record profits for big oil and gas 
companies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended global energy 
markets, triggering a rise in the international price of Brent crude and 
record gas prices across Europe.

Financial analysts at IEEFA said the companies were likely to pay even 
greater shareholder distributions this year despite weaker commodity 
market prices leading to lower profits. The payouts will also follow a 
year that is expected to have been hotter than any other on record, with 
the climate emergency leading to a series of extreme weather events.

Trey Cowan, an analyst at the IEEFA, said: “At the current pace of 
distributions via share buybacks and dividends, these five super-majors 
could set a record for distributions to shareholders in 2023, topping 
the $104bn spent during the 2022 calendar year.”
Shell angered climate campaigners in November by setting out plans to 
pay shareholders at least $23bn in rewards this year, despite falling 
profits. The sum is more than six times the amount Shell planned to 
spend on renewable energy last year.
Shell’s investor windfall follows one of the biggest annual profits in 
UK corporate history for 2022 when the oil company revealed profits of 
$40bn but weaker commodity market prices in 2023 mean its full-year 
earnings are expected to be lower.

BP used its second-quarter results last year to tell shareholders to 
expect a 10% dividend raise in 2023, well above its initial guidance. 
The company had promised to raise the dividend by 4% each year and buy 
back about $4bn of shares, assuming the oil price was about $60 a 
barrel, but over the previous four quarters BP had repurchased $10bn of 
shares and increased its dividend by 20%. The handouts were particularly 
surprising after the company reported a deeper-than-expected profit 
slump. They were welcomed by investors, amid concern among some about 
the plans of the former chief executive Bernard Looney to “reimagine” BP 
as a net zero energy company by 2050.

Oil companies continue to offer generous shareholder handouts as 
investors face growing pressure to divest their shares. Protests 
targeting oil company AGMs and conferences have become increasingly 
disruptive in recent years as campaigners demand more ambitious climate 
action.

They have also faced hostility from campaign groups that have accused 
the companies of profiting from Russia’s war while millions of 
households have been plunged into a cost of living crisis driven by high 
energy costs.

Alice Harrison, a campaigner at Global Witness, said: “The global energy 
crisis has been a giant cash grab for fossil fuel firms. And instead of 
investing their record profits in clean energy, these companies are 
doubling down on oil, gas and shareholder payouts.

“Yet again millions of families won’t be able to afford to heat their 
homes this winter, and countries around the world will continue to 
suffer the extreme weather events of climate collapse. This is the 
fossil fuel economy, and it’s rigged in favour of the rich.”

Some green groups believe lucrative shareholder rewards are being used 
to distract investors from the public backlash against the oil industry, 
and a terminal shift in government policies away from fossil fuels.

But Dieter Helm, a professor of economic policy at the University of 
Oxford and a former government adviser, believes the payouts suggest the 
industry remains confident about its future profitability.
Helm used his 2017 book Burnout: the Endgame for Fossil Fuels to set out 
how the oil industry might respond to the existential threat of climate 
action. In a “harvest and exit” strategy companies would probably wring 
out as much value for their shareholders as possible, while winding down 
their future fossil fuel spending, he suggested.

But the climate agenda is unlikely to be playing a role in recent record 
shareholder paydays, he said. “For this to be the case you would have to 
believe that the energy transition is happening, and that demand for 
fossil fuels is going to fall. These companies are investing a huge 
amount in new projects, and they’re handing out bigger dividends because 
they are confident that they’re going to make big returns. And when we 
look at the state of our current climate progress, who’s to say they’re 
wrong?”

The oil industry’s record investor payouts have been largely buoyed by a 
sharp increase in share buybacks, according to analysts at S&P Global 
Market Intelligence (SPMI), which plays some role in future-proofing oil 
company payouts.

Share buybacks allow companies to share a surge in profits with 
investors without the long-term commitment of a change to the dividend 
policy. They also help to reduce the number of shares in the market, 
which would make future dividend policies “cheaper” to fulfil.

“In the US, Chevron leads a $75bn repurchase programme, followed by 
ExxonMobil’s $50bn. In Europe, Eni and Equinor have massively increased 
buybacks, up to 20% of cashflows from operations, albeit dividends 
remained as their priority. We forecast Shell and BP to allocate 15-18% 
of cashflow to dividends and about 25% to buybacks in 2024,” SPMI said.

The analysts expect the oil and gas industry to relinquish its position 
as the sector that pays the biggest dividends in 2024, dropping to 
second place behind banks.

The IEEFA’s Cowan says: “The [oil industry] is beginning to empty its 
war chest used to pay shareholders faster than they can replenish it. 
Future distributions to shareholders of these companies appear likely to 
fall and not continue to ascend.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/01/oil-companies-shareholders-payouts-bp-shell-chevron-exxonmobil-totalenergies

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/[ Dr Jennifer Francis described the importance of major polar weather 
structures ]/
*Dr Jennifer Francis- 2024 and beyond "Expect surprises, destruction, 
suffering..."*
Nick Breeze ClimateGenn
Jan 1, 24  ClimateGenn #podcast  produced by Nick Breeze
In this climategenn episode bulletin, I speak with Dr Jennifer Francis 
about her new work looking at Weather Whiplash Events that she and 
colleagues have been studying in the N Atlantic and Europe.

We also discuss the outlook for 2024 as climate impacts worsen and world 
leaders from across the world are doubling down on expanding the root 
cause of the problem: fossil fuels.

If you want to find out more about the failing COP process and why we 
urgently need to hold those delaying structural change directly 
accountable, you can preorder my book COPOUT, available on Amazon or 
another bookstore. https://amzn.to/47llRaW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMxsu1E88NA

/[ Sober overview of what we are facing - from Colby College, in Maine]/
*Unlivable: how a changing climate will force a global migration*
colbygoldfarbcenter
Aug 11, 2023
Abrahm Lustgarten, a nationally recognized writer and thinker about 
climate change, was the presenter for the 2023 Linda Cotter Speaker 
Series, co-hosted by the Goldfarb Center for Public Affairs and 
Mid-Maine Global Forum, honoring Linda Cotter's legacy as the founder of 
the Mid-Maine Global Forum.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08XPKYcCYF0

/[ unusual interview -- setting the stage for collapse ]/
*Decoding Civilizational Collapse ◄ Joseph Tainter*
typeoneplanet
Oct 5, 2023  Type One Planet
Joseph is a professor in the Department of Environment and Society at 
Utah State University. He is perhaps best known as the author of the 
1988 book The Collapse of Complex Societies, which examines the dynamics 
and processes that lead civilizations to decay and unravel. This seminal 
work remains a key text for anyone seeking to comprehend how societies 
evolve, adapt, and sometimes catastrophically fail.

In his research, Joseph tackles big questions about civilizational 
sustainability, the ability to problem-solve, and the complex interplay 
of factors that allow civilizations to thrive or decline. His core 
argument is that as societies evolve to solve problems, they become more 
complex. This added complexity initially yields benefits and new 
capabilities, but over time it requires ever more resources to sustain 
itself, leading to diminishing returns. Eventually the costs of 
maintaining complexity overwhelm the benefits, setting the stage for 
collapse.

Joseph’s ability to analyze civilizations using an anthropological lens 
provides a unique vantage point for assessing our current global system.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pbp3B8Iqn1g

/[ Climate Migration Climate change  United Nations]/
*The Great Displacement: Climate Migration in America*
Carnegie Endowment
  Streamed on Mar 20, 2023
Even as climate change dominates the headlines, many still think about 
it in the future tense—we imagine that decades from now, rising seas and 
failed harvests will send people fleeing from their homes and home 
countries. But in fact climate change is already driving migration 
today, even in prosperous countries like the United States.

 From half-drowned Louisiana to fire-scorched California, from the 
dried-up cotton fields of Arizona to the soaked watersheds of North 
Carolina, Americans are moving. And around the world, climate-related 
migration is occurring in the absence of any legally recognized status 
for “climate refugees”. It’s a problem that is only growing more serious.

Join the Carnegie Endowment online for a conversation between Jake 
Bittle, a staff writer at Grist and the author of The Great 
Displacement: Climate Change and the Next American Migration, and Noah 
J. Gordon, acting co-director of Carnegie’s Sustainability, Climate, and 
Geopolitics Program. The discussion will be followed by an audience Q&A.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQKdsF013yQ

/[ yes, in a 2 minute video ]/
*Will climate change get worse before it gets better?*
Curious Climate Schools
Oct 29, 2023
Professor Zanna Chase answers Will climate change get worse before it 
gets better?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsZg5Lcs1YU

- -

/[ conjecture, of course ]/
*What if animals can talk, what would they say about climate change?*
CurNov 5, 2023
Alexander Burton answers 'What if animals can talk, what would they say 
about climate change?'ious Climate Schools
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8C1nh7mbJK0

- -

/[ yes this channel offers simple videos ]/
*Curious Climate Schools*
@curiousclimateschools5072
https://www.youtube.com/@curiousclimateschools5072

/[ The news archive - Mother Jones publication ]/
/*January 2, 2014 */
January 2, 2014:
• Chris Mooney of Mother Jones explains to the willfully ignorant that 
snow doesn't disprove climate change.

    All of this is all wrong in ways that have all been explained
    before. So just a few brief observations:

    1. Statements about climate trends must be based on, er, trends. Not
    individual events or occurrences. Weather is not climate, and
    anecdotes are not statistics.

    2. Global warming is actually expected to increase “heavy
    precipitation in winter storms,” and for the northern hemisphere,
    there is evidence that these storms are already more frequent and
    intense, according to the draft US National Climate Assessment.

    3. Antarctica is a very cold place. But global warming is affecting
    it as predicted: Antarctica is losing ice overall, according to the
    latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
    However, sea ice is a different matter than land-based or glacial
    ice. Antarctic sea ice is increasing, and moreover, the reason for
    this may be climate change! (For more, read here.)

    Finally, just one last thing. When it’s winter on Earth, it’s also
    summer on Earth…somewhere else. Thus, allow us to counter anecdotal
    evidence about cold weather with more anecdotal evidence: It’s
    blazing hot in Australia, with temperatures, in some regions, set to
    possibly soar above 120 degrees Fahrenheit in the coming days.

http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2014/01/blizzards-dont-refute-global-warming

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