[✔️] Jan 26, 2024 Global Warming News | TIME magazine Apocalyptic Optimism, Saving Ourselves, Climate weather now, Tipping Points, 2015 Alaska

Richard Pauli Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Fri Jan 26 08:36:30 EST 2024 

/*January*//*26, 2024*/

/[ TIME magazine guest////opinion ]/
*Apocalyptic Optimism Could Be the Antidote for Climate Fatalism*
/Dana R. Fisher /
After 28 years of failed climate negotiations, scientifically informed 
emissions reductions set by governments have languished. Consequently, 
the pace at which the world is mitigating and adapting to the threat of 
climate change is far too slow to meet the challenge. Carbon 
concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise quickly, as the ice 
sheets melt and climate shocks—like droughts, floods, and 
heatwaves—increase in frequency and intensity.

Meanwhile, leadership of the climate negotiations at this late hour has 
been relegated to petrostates and former fossil fuel executives, which 
has helped make it impossible to agree upon, let alone implement, 
policies that could save us from the worst of the climate crisis. The 
writing is on the wall: the only way for things to get better is after 
they get much worse. Lives will be lost, and social conflict driven by 
climate migration and competition for increasingly scarce resources will 
proliferate. These look like insurmountable odds, and in many ways they 
are. But there is a slim chance that we can slow climate change enough 
to preserve our planet and minimize the catastrophe that is just around 
the corner.

I call myself an apocalyptic optimist. I believe we can save ourselves 
from the climate crisis that we have caused; I also believe it will only 
be possible with a mass mobilization driven by the pain and suffering of 
climate shocks around the world. As the social effects of climate shocks 
grow in both frequency and severity, I predict they will motivate an 
AnthroShift where personal and economic risk reaches a critical 
threshold that leads people to alter their behaviors and force 
governments and businesses to transition aggressively away from fossil 
fuels. This process requires halting all fossil fuel subsidies and 
stopping all efforts to extract more fossil fuels to be burned at home 
or exported for use abroad. Such AnthroShifts can open up windows of 
opportunity for innovative social change—but only, as I have discussed 
in detail elsewhere, if the risks are both severe and durable.

The COVID-19 pandemic offers a recent example of an AnthroShift where 
risk durability was too low for the social changes to be sustained long 
term. In spring 2020, we changed our behaviors overnight to limit the 
transmission of the coronavirus and flatten the curve. We wore masks, we 
homeschooled our kids, we disinfected our groceries, we accepted not 
seeing family for holidays, and we even made our own bread. The social 
changes were so notable, in fact, that climate activist Greta Thunberg 
shrewdly observed early in the pandemic: “The coronavirus is a terrible 
event…. But it also shows one thing: That once we are in a crisis…we can 
act fast and change our habits and treat a crisis like a crisis.” 
However, as vaccines reduced the threat of the disease, the world opened 
back up. Our lives shifted back to normal (or at least close to it), and 
the window of opportunity for big social change closed.

The social responses to the pandemic showed us that the type of systemic 
changes needed to address the climate crisis are possible. But they also 
made clear that without a sustained shock that has tangible costs to 
people and property, those changes will be ephemeral and social actors 
will regress back to a business-as-usual trajectory. Imagine what would 
have happened if COVID-19 vaccines had not been developed or if the 
disease had mutated in a way that was even more deadly.

There are no vaccines or any other sort of silver bullets to save us 
from the climate crisis. To make matters worse, the level of shock 
needed to motivate sustained social change on the climate front is even 
higher than it is in a public-health context, given the many actors with 
vested interests in maintaining their access to the resources and power 
in our fossil-fuel-dependent economy.

The social responses to the pandemic showed us that the type of systemic 
changes needed to address the climate crisis are possible. But they also 
made clear that without a sustained shock that has tangible costs to 
people and property, those changes will be ephemeral and social actors 
will regress back to a business-as-usual trajectory. Imagine what would 
have happened if COVID-19 vaccines had not been developed or if the 
disease had mutated in a way that was even more deadly.

There are no vaccines or any other sort of silver bullets to save us 
from the climate crisis. To make matters worse, the level of shock 
needed to motivate sustained social change on the climate front is even 
higher than it is in a public-health context, given the many actors with 
vested interests in maintaining their access to the resources and power 
in our fossil-fuel-dependent economy.

It is possible that more confrontational activism could be more 
effective, and calls for such an approach are growing. To date, though, 
we are nowhere near the level of mass mobilization needed.

We can look to history to see what kinds of crises have triggered the 
level of drastic social changes needed to reach a tipping point that 
motivates an AnthroShift that would be sufficiently wide spread and long 
lasting to limit climate change: war, economic depression, and natural 
disaster. Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most 
recent report suggests that world war and widescale economic depression 
are possible consequences of climate change. The most likely, though, is 
natural disaster.

The climate shocks to come have the potential to motivate an AnthroShift 
that reorients all the sectors of society to respond meaningfully to the 
climate crisis. Without them, the best we can hope for is incremental 
change that does not disrupt the current political and economic 
powers—and we’ve seen how effective that has been over the last 28 
years. The climate disaster that is coming is inevitable at this point, 
but it may also be our only hope for meaningful change. In the meantime, 
the best way through the climate crisis is to build strong ties within 
our communities, create solidarity, and cultivate social and 
environmental resilience capable of supporting one another and 
exploiting the windows of opportunity when the apocalypse arrives.

/Dana R. Fisher is the director of the Center for Environment, 
Community, and Equity and a professor in the School of International 
Service at American University. She is the author of a number of books, 
most recently Saving Ourselves: From Climate Shocks to Climate Action./
https://time.com/6565499/apocalyptic-optimism-climate-change/

- -

/[ New book in March ]/
*Saving Ourselves
 From Climate Shocks to Climate Action*
Dana R. Fisher
PUB DATE: March 2024
FORMAT: Hardcover
LIST PRICE: $19.95£16.99
PUB DATE: March 2024
ISBN: 9780231557870

Columbia University Press

We've known for decades that climate change is an existential crisis. 
For just as long, we've seen the complete failure of our institutions to 
rise to the challenge. Governments have struggled to meet even modest 
goals. Fossil fuel interests maintain a stranglehold on political and 
economic power. Even though we have seen growing concern from everyday 
people, civil society has succeeded only in pressuring decision makers 
to adopt watered-down policies. All the while, the climate crisis 
worsens. Is there any hope of achieving the systemic change we need?

Dana R. Fisher argues that there is a realistic path forward for climate 
action—but only through mass mobilization that responds to the growing 
severity and frequency of disastrous events. She assesses the current 
state of affairs and shows why public policy and private-sector efforts 
have been ineffective. Spurred by this lack of progress, climate 
activism has become increasingly confrontational. Fisher examines the 
radical flank of the climate movement: its emergence and growth, its use 
of direct action, and how it might evolve as the climate crisis worsens. 
She considers when and how activism is most successful, identifying the 
importance of creating community, capitalizing on shocking moments, and 
cultivating resilience. Clear-eyed yet optimistic, Saving Ourselves 
offers timely insights on how social movements can take power back from 
deeply entrenched interests and open windows of opportunity for 
transformative climate action.

https://cup.columbia.edu/book/saving-ourselves/9780231557870



/[ using climate change to predict weather changes  ]/
*How is Climate Change Affecting The Weather Now? - Myles Allen*
Gresham College
Jan 23, 2024  GRESHAM COLLEGE
Enjoying our lectures? Please take a minute to answer 4 questions to 
tell us what you think!
https://app.sli.do/event/1JonWUnuRtwjjMgcBM7LDQ/live/polls

Climate change is already affecting us all, regardless of where we live, 
through changing risks of extreme weather events. This lecture will take 
a break from global climate policy to talk about the links between 
climate and weather, chaos theory and the practical tools available to 
quantify changing risks.

There is a lot we still don’t know – and a lot we could know, if only 
governments and the insurance industry were willing to pay for better 
climate risk information.

This lecture was recorded by Myles Allen on 17th January 2024 at 
Barnard's Inn Hall, London

Myles is the Frank Jackson Foundation Professor of the Environment.

He has contributed extensively to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change (IPCC), including as Coordinating Lead Author for the 2018 IPCC 
Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. He has published extensively 
on how human and natural influences on climate contribute to observed 
climate change and extreme weather risk, and the implications for 
adaptation and mitigation policy.

The transcript and downloadable versions of the lecture are available 
from the Gresham College website:
https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/weather-change

Gresham College has offered free public lectures for over 400 years, 
thanks to the generosity of our supporters. There are currently over 
2,500 lectures free to access. We believe that everyone should have the 
opportunity to learn from some of the greatest minds. To support 
Gresham's mission, please consider making a donation: 
https://gresham.ac.uk/support/

Website: https://gresham.ac.uk
Twitter:    / greshamcollege
Facebook:   / greshamcollege
Instagram:   / greshamcollege
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuxcuBXyp1M



/[ deeper maths used for understanding tipping points ]/
*Assessing Climate Tipping Points with New Math Breakthroughs in 
Statistical Physics and Applied Math*
Paul Beckwith
Jan 25, 2024
Climate tipping points easier to judge with math breakthrough. I chat 
about the key findings…

“Math experts have developed new ways to provide further evidence for 
human-caused global heating and predict how close Earth is to reaching 
dangerous climate tipping points.”

“Lead author Professor Valerio Lucarini, Professor of Statistical 
Mechanics at the University of Reading, said, "Our study provides 
academics and policymakers with rigorous mathematical tools needed to 
understand and predict climate change, and, specifically to detect and 
avoid climate tipping points resulting from human activities. It gives 
us a unified perspective linking climate variability and climate change. 
Our approach allows one to seamlessly study gradual climate changes and 
tipping points.”

“The research critically investigated 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics winner 
Klaus Hasselmann's stochastic modeling approach, which revolutionized 
climate change analysis. The new study refined Hasselmann's techniques 
using recent tools developed within the mathematical and physical 
scientific literature.”

1) “Climate tipping points easier to judge with math breakthrough”: 
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-climate...
“Klaus Hasselmann's revolutionary intuition in climate science was to 
take advantage of the stochasticity associated with fast weather 
processes to probe the slow dynamics of the climate system. This has led 
to fundamentally new ways to study the response of climate models to 
perturbations, and to perform detection and attribution for climate 
change signals. “

“We propose a general framework for explaining the relationship between 
climate variability and climate change, and for performing climate 
change projections. This leads us seamlessly to explain some key general 
aspects of climatic tipping points. Finally, we show that response 
theory provides a solid framework supporting optimal fingerprinting 
methods for detection and attribution.”

2) “Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from 
Hasselmann's program and beyond”: https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12009
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaF4_hn-gYc

- -

/[ The Paper from Phys Org]/
*Climate tipping points easier to judge with math breakthrough*
by University of Reading
https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800a/2023/tipping-points-easier.jpg

https://phys.org/news/2023-11-climate-easier-math-breakthrough.html

- -

/[ another location for the original PDF paper ] /
*Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from 
Hasselmann’s program and beyond*

    Klaus Hasselmann’s revolutionary intuition in climate science was to
    take advantage of the stochasticity
    associated with fast weather processes to probe the slow dynamics of
    the climate system. This has led to
    fundamentally new ways to study the response of climate models to
    perturbations, and to perform detection and
    attribution for climate change signals. Hasselmann’s program has
    been extremely influential in climate science
    and beyond. We first summarise the main aspects of such a program
    using modern concepts and tools of statistical
    physics and applied mathematics. We then provide an overview of some
    promising scientific perspectives that
    might better clarify the science behind the climate crisis and that
    stem from Hasselmann’s ideas. We show
    how to perform rigorous model reduction by constructing
    parametrizations in systems that do not necessarily
    feature a time-scale separation between unresolved and resolved
    processes. We propose a general framework for
    explaining the relationship between climate variability and climate
    change, and for performing climate change
    projections. This leads us seamlessly to explain some key general
    aspects of climatic tipping points. Finally, we
    show that response theory provides a solid framework supporting
    optimal fingerprinting methods for detection
    and attribution**

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.12009.pdf



/[The news archive -  ]/
/*January 26, 2015 */
January 26, 2015:
• The New York Times reports:

    "Alaska is not a sinking ship, but no one needed an explanation of
    the gallows-humor remark, as a record-setting sea of red ink has
    flooded the state budget amid a global collapse of energy prices.
    Taxes paid by oilcompanies account for 90 percent of the state’s
    operating budget, and those revenues have sunk with stomach-churning
    suddenness and depth, echoing other oil-patch states, like Texas,
    but with uniquely Alaskan scale and implications.

    "The result, historians and economists say, is beyond the experience
    of this state, or probably any other in modern times: more than half
    of the tax base — predicated on crude oil selling at around $110 a
    barrel — is simply gone in the whirlwind of $50 oil, as though it
    never existed. A spending plan of $6.1 billion for 2015, passed by
    the Legislature last year, will fall $3.5 billion short, or more, if
    oil prices keep falling. Alaska collects no state sales or income
    taxes to pick up the slack; a savings fund from past oil earnings
    will help, but it cannot fully fill the gap either."

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/26/us/as-oil-falls-alaskas-new-chief-faces-a-novel-goal-frugality.html



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