[✔️] Jan 29, 2024 Global Warming News | 8 billion collapses to 2.5 billion. Exoplanet climate, Future on Earth, Runaway greenhouse, Build a house, 2006 Dr James Hansen

Mon Jan 29 10:40:51 EST 2024

/*January*//*29, 2024*/

/[ Global human population now ~8 billion, perhaps 2.5 billion 
sustainable ]/
*Calculated Degree of Ecological Overshoot*
Just Collapse
Jan 27, 2024
3 minute video of Prof. Tad Patzek calculating the scale of Earth's 
ecological overshoot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Os2ah76q3Vc

/
/

/[ (High anxiety warning) Press release - Runaway greenhouse effect can 
transform a temperate habitable planet with surface liquid water ocean 
into a hot steam dominated planet hostile to any life. ]/
*Exoplanets’climate – it takes nothing to switch from habitable to hell*
A team from UNIGE, NCCR PlanetS and CNRS has managed to simulate the 
entire runaway greenhouse effect, which can make a planet completely 
unhabitable.
The Earth is a wonderful blue and green dot covered with oceans and 
life, while Venus is a yellowish sterile sphere that is not only 
inhospitable but also sterile. However, the difference between the two 
bears to only a few degrees in temperature. A team of astronomers from 
the University of Geneva (UNIGE) and members of the National Centre of 
Competence in Research (NCCR) PlanetS, with the support of the CNRS 
laboratories of Paris and Bordeaux, has achieved a world’s first by 
managing to simulate the entirety of the runaway greenhouse process 
which can transform the climate of a planet from idyllic and perfect for 
life, to a place more than harsh and hostile. The scientists have also 
demonstrated that from initial stages of the process, the atmospheric 
structure and cloud coverage undergo significant changes, leading to an 
almost-unstoppable and very complicated to reverse runaway greenhouse 
effect. On Earth, a global average temperature rise of just a few tens 
of degrees, subsequent to a slight rise of the Sun’s luminosity, would 
be sufficient to initiate this phenomenon and to make our planet 
inhabitable. These results are published in Astronomy & Astrophysics.

The idea of a runaway of the greenhouse effect is not new. In this 
scenario, a planet can evolve from a temperate state like on Earth to a 
true hell, with surface temperatures above 1000°C. The cause? Water 
vapor, a natural greenhouse gas. Water vapor prevents the solar 
irradiation absorbed by Earth to be reemitted towards the void of space, 
as thermal radiation. It traps heat a bit like a rescue blanket. A dash 
of greenhouse effect is useful – without it, Earth would have an average 
temperature below the freezing point of water, looking like a ball 
covered with ice and hostile to life.

On the opposite, too much greenhouse effect increases the evaporation of 
oceans, and thus the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. “There is 
a critical threshold for this amount of water vapor, beyond which the 
planet cannot cool down anymore. From there, everything gets carried 
away until the oceans end up getting fully evaporated and the 
temperature reaches several hundred degrees,” explains Guillaume 
Chaverot, former postdoctoral scholar in the Department of Astronomy at 
the UNIGE Faculty of Science and main author of the study.

*World premiere*

“Until now, other key studies in climatology have focused solely on 
either the temperate state before the runaway, or either the inhabitable 
state post-runaway,” reveals Martin Turbet, researcher at CNRS 
laboratories of Paris and Bordeaux, and co-author of the study. “It is 
the first time a team has studied the transition itself with a 3D global 
climate model, and has checked how the climate and the atmosphere evolve 
during that process.”

One of the key points of the study describes the appearance of a very 
peculiar cloud pattern, increasing the runaway effect, and making the 
process irreversible. “From the start of the transition, we can observe 
some very dense clouds developing in the high atmosphere. Actually, the 
latter does not display anymore the temperature inversion characteristic 
of the Earth atmosphere and separating its two main layers: the 
troposphere and the stratosphere. The structure of the atmosphere is 
deeply altered,” points out Guillaume Chaverot.

*Serious consequences for the search of life elsewhere*

This discovery is a key feature for the study of climate on other 
planets, and in particular on exoplanets – planets orbiting other stars 
than the Sun. “By studying the climate on other planets, one of our 
strongest motivations is to determine their potential to host life,” 
indicates Émeline Bolmont, assistant professor and director of the UNIGE 
Life in the Universe Center (LUC), and co-author of the study.

The LUC leads state-of-the-art interdisciplinary research projects 
regarding the origins of life on Earth, and the quest for life elsewhere 
in our solar system and beyond, in exoplanetary systems. “After the 
previous studies, we suspected already the existence of a water vapor 
threshold, but the appearance of this cloud pattern is a real surprise!” 
discloses Émeline Bolmont. “We have also studied in parallel how this 
cloud pattern could create a specific signature, or ‘‘fingerprint’’, 
detectable when observing exoplanet atmospheres. The upcoming generation 
of instruments should be able to detect it,” unveils Martin Turbet. The 
team is also not aiming to stop there, Guillaume Chaverot having 
received a research grant to continue this study at the “Institut de 
Planétologie et d’Astrophysique de Grenoble” (IPAG). This new step of 
the research project will focus on the specific case of the Earth.

*A planet Earth in a fragile equilibrium*

With their new climate models, the scientists have calculated that a 
very small increase of the solar irradiation – leading to an increase of 
the global Earth temperature, of only a few tens of degrees – would be 
enough to trigger this irreversible runaway process on Earth and make 
our planet as inhospitable as Venus. One of the current climate goals is 
to limit global warming on Earth, induced by greenhouse gases, to only 
1.5 degrees by 2050. One of the questions of Guillaume Chaverot’s 
research grant is to determine if greenhouse gases can trigger the 
runaway process as a slight increase of the Sun luminosity might do. If 
so, the next question will be to determine if the treshold temperatures 
are the same for both processes.

The Earth is thus not so far from this apocalyptical scenario. “Assuming 
this runaway process would be started on Earth, an evaporation of only 
10 meters of the oceans’ surface would lead to a 1 bar increase of the 
atmospheric pressure at ground level. In just a few hundred years, we 
would reach a ground temperature of over 500°C. Later, we would even 
reach 273 bars of surface pressure and over 1 500°C, when all of the 
oceans would end up totally evaporated,” concludes Guillaume Chaverot.

*Exoplanets in Geneva: 25 years of expertise honored with a Nobel Prize*

The first exoplanet was discovered in 1995 by two researchers from the 
University of Geneva, Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz, recipients of the 
2019 Nobel Prize in Physics. This discovery put the University of 
Geneva’s Astronomy Department at the forefront of research in the field, 
with the construction and installation of HARPS on ESO’s 3.6m telescope 
at La Silla in 2003.

For two decades, this spectrograph was the most powerful in the world 
for determining the mass of exoplanets. However, HARPS was surpassed in 
2018 by ESPRESSO, another spectrograph built in Geneva and installed on 
the Very Large Telescope (VLT) in Paranal, Chile.

Switzerland is also involved in space-based observations of exoplanets 
with the CHEOPS mission, the result of two national areas of expertise: 
the space know-how of the University of Bern, in collaboration with its 
counterpart in Geneva, and the ground-based experience of the University 
of Geneva, assisted by its counterpart in the Swiss capital. These two 
areas of scientific and technical expertise have also led to the 
creation of the PlanetS National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR).

*Life in the Universe Center (LUC): an interdisciplinary excellence pole*

The Life in the Universe Center (LUC) is an interdisciplinary research 
center of the University of Geneva (UNIGE) founded in 2021 following the 
awarding in 2019 of the Nobel Prize in Physics by professors Michel 
Mayor and Didier Queloz. Thanks to the progress made during the last 
decade, both in the domains of the solar system exploration, of 
exoplanets and of the organic structure of life, the question of the 
emergence of life on other planets can now be tackled in a tangible way, 
and no more only speculatively. At the crossroads of astronomy, 
chemistry, physics, biology and of Earth and climate sciences, the LUC 
has for objective to understand the origins and the distribution of life 
in the universe. At the initiative of the Astronomy Department, the LUC 
brings together researchers from numerous UNIGE institutes and 
departments, as well as from several partner universities internationally.

18 Dec 2023
https://www.unige.ch/medias/en/2023/climat-des-exoplanetes-dhabitable-infernale-un-rien-suffit

- -

/[ first academic paper I have seen about total overshoot ]/
*What Climate Change on Exoplanets Tells Us About Future of Life on 
Earth: Doooohhhh… Not So Good…*
Paul Beckwith
Jan 28, 2024
I chat about a recent peer-reviewed scientific paper studying exoplanets 
that orbit other stars in other solar systems.

“The Earth is a wonderful blue and green dot covered with oceans and 
life, while Venus is a yellowish sterile sphere that is not only 
inhospitable but also sterile. However, the difference between the is 
only a few tens of degrees in temperature. A team of astronomers… has 
achieved a world’s first by managing to simulate the entirety of the 
runaway greenhouse process which can transform the climate of a planet 
from idyllic and perfect for life, to a place more than harsh and 
hostile. The scientists have also demonstrated that from initial stages 
of the process, the atmospheric structure and cloud coverage undergo 
significant changes, leading to an almost-unstoppable and very 
complicated to reverse runaway greenhouse effect. On Earth, a global 
average temperature rise of just a few tens of degrees, subsequent to a 
slight rise of the Sun’s luminosity, would be sufficient to initiate 
this phenomenon and to make our planet inhabitable. These results are 
published in Astronomy & Astrophysics.”

“The idea of a runaway of the greenhouse effect is not new. In this 
scenario, a planet can evolve from a temperate state like on Earth to a 
true hell, with surface temperatures above 1000°C. The cause? Water 
vapor, a natural greenhouse gas. Water vapor prevents the solar 
irradiation absorbed by Earth to be reemitted towards the void of space, 
as thermal radiation. It traps heat a bit like a rescue blanket. A dash 
of greenhouse effect is useful – without it, Earth would have an average 
temperature below the freezing point of water, looking like a ball 
covered with ice and hostile to life.

On the opposite, too much greenhouse effect increases the evaporation of 
oceans, and thus the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. “There is 
a critical threshold for this amount of water vapor, beyond which the 
planet cannot cool down anymore. From there, everything gets carried 
away until the oceans end up getting fully evaporated and the 
temperature reaches several hundred degrees,”

“One of the key points of the study describes the appearance of a very 
peculiar cloud pattern, increasing the runaway effect, and making the 
process irreversible. “From the start of the transition, we can observe 
some very dense clouds developing in the high atmosphere. Actually, the 
latter does not display anymore the temperature inversion characteristic 
of the Earth atmosphere and separating its two main layers: the 
troposphere and the stratosphere. The structure of the atmosphere is 
deeply altered,”

*Article:*
“Exoplanets’ climate – it takes nothing to switch from habitable to hell.”
https://www.aanda.org/component/content/article/208-press-releases/2023-press-releases/2930-exoplanets-climate-it-takes-nothing-to-switch-from-habitable-to-hell

“The Earth is thus not so far from this apocalyptical scenario. 
“Assuming this runaway process would be started on Earth, an evaporation 
of only 10 meters of the oceans’ surface would lead to a 1 bar increase 
of the atmospheric pressure at ground level. In just a few hundred 
years, we would reach a ground temperature of over 500°C. Later, we 
would even reach 273 bars of surface pressure and over 1 500°C, when all 
of the oceans would end up totally evaporated,”

A few tens of degrees C to trigger this runaway greenhouse effect may 
seem like a lot, but it’s not. Remember than James Hansen’s climate 
sensitivity value is a nominal 4.8C (actually between 3.6C and 6.0C) so 
it’s not too far off.

Here is the title and link to the open-source peer reviewed paper:
“First exploration of the runaway greenhouse transition with a 3D 
General Circulation Model”
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qsv2cAXlNY

- -

/[ Runaway greenhouse effect - paper of Astronomy/Astrophysics ]/
*First exploration of the runaway greenhouse transition with a 3D 
General Circulation Model*
Guillaume Chaverot, Emeline Bolmont and Martin Turbet
Accepted: 11 September 2023

    *Abstract*
    While their detections remain challenging at present, observations
    of small terrestrial planets will become easier in a near future
    thanks to continuous improvements of detection and characterisation
    instruments. In this quest, climate modeling is a key step to
    understanding their characteristics, atmospheric composition, and
    possible histories. If a surface water reservoir is present on such
    a terrestrial planet, an increase in insolation may lead to a
    dramatic positive feedback induced by water evaporation: the runaway
    greenhouse. The resulting rise in the global surface temperature
    leads to the evaporation of the entire water reservoir, separating
    two very different population of planets: 1) temperate planets with
    a surface water ocean and 2) hot planets with a puffed atmosphere
    dominated by water vapor. Therefore, the understanding of the
    runaway greenhouse is pivotal to assess the different evolution of
    Venus and the Earth, as well as every similar terrestrial exoplanet.
    In this work, we use a 3D General Circulation Model (GCM), the
    Generic-PCM, to study the runaway greenhouse transition, linking
    temperate and post-runaway states. Our simulations were comprised of
    two phases. First, assuming initially a liquid surface ocean, there
    is an evaporation phase, which enriches the atmosphere with water
    vapor. Second, when the ocean is considered to be entirely
    evaporated, there is a dry transition phase for which the surface
    temperature increases dramatically. Finally, the evolution ends with
    a hot and stable post-runaway state. By describing in detail the
    evolution of the climate over these two steps, we show a rapid
    transition of the cloud coverage and of the wind circulation from
    the troposphere to the stratosphere. By comparing our result to
    previous studies using 1D models, we discuss the effect of
    intrinsically 3D processes such as the global dynamics and the
    clouds, which are key to understanding the runaway greenhouse. We
    also explore the potential reversibility of the runaway greenhouse
    that is limited by its radiative unbalance.

https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html

- -

/[ so you want to build a house? - some discussion ]/
*Building for Sustainability - What Really Matters*
Energy vs Climate
25.Oct.2023
What matters - and really doesn’t matter - when it comes to Building for 
Sustainability? David, Sara and Ed answer that question in a live 
episode of Energy vs Climate recorded on November 5, 2023 to kick off 
the Building for Sustainability symposium in Canmore, AB.
[ audio https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfDzEQez2q0 ]
Nov 10, 2023  Energy vs Climate Podcast [ 50 min audio]
Building for Sustainability - What Really Matters | Energy vs Climate S5E4

What matters - and really doesn’t matter - when it comes to Building for 
Sustainability? David, Sara and Ed answer that question in a live 
episode of Energy vs Climate recorded on November 5, 2023 to kick off 
the Building for Sustainability symposium in Canmore, AB.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfDzEQez2q0

/[The news archive - 2006 muzzling of climate scientist  Dr James Hansen ]/
/*January 29, 2006 */
January 29, 2006: The New York Times reports on the extensive effort by 
the George W. Bush administration to muzzle NASA scientist James Hansen. 
(The controversy would also be covered by Air America's "EcoTalk with 
Betsy Rosenberg" and the CBS program "60 Minutes.")

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/science/earth/29climate.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1& 

http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/02/ecotalk_82.html

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