[✔️] March 18, 2024 Global Warming News | Reasonable preparation, NOAA predictions, Unavoidable future, Quick lesson in Greenhouse, Yellow dot humor, 2013 USA Today Katrina

[Richard Pauli]

/*March*//*18, 2024*/

/[ First suggestion:  "don't be a nut-job" ]/
*Thinking about 2024: What is Reasonable Preparation?*
American Resiliency
Sep 14, 2023
This is a longer and more serious video, talking about what makes sense 
when we think about building resilience for the near future. I share the 
scenarios for which I prepare, my mindset behind my preparations, and 
the sort of goals I recommend for people who are just starting out.
If you are interested, this is the most recent update from NOAA about 
the current El Nino system:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdR3UWpY5FQ

- -

/[ NOAA Climate Prediction Center - March 11, 2024 --  this is a good 
document to open ]/
*ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions *
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Pacific SST Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
- -
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
El Niño conditions are observed.*updated monthly
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the
central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79%
chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55%
chance).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf



/[ A research paper from the great young scientist Kaitlin Naughten ]/
*Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over 
the twenty-first century*
Kaitlin A. Naughten 

    Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is
    currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution to
    sea-level
    rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of
    future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find
    that
    rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is
    likely
    committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in
    ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet
    stability. When
    internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant
    difference
    between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of
    the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse
    gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to
    the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf


/[ Geo Girl offers quick atmosphere lesson ]/
*Significance of the Greenhouse Effect on Earth & Other Planets | GEO GIRL*
GEO GIRL
Mar 17, 2024
How does the greenhouse effect actually work on Earth? How has it 
changed through Earth's history? Do other planets have a greenhouse 
effect? In this video, I cover how energy flows to and from Earth, the 
significance of the greenhouse effect for sustaining life on Earth, how 
the strength of Earth's greenhouse effect changed through time, the 
differences between Earth's greenhouse effect and that of nearby 
planets, and the current perturbation to Earth's greenhouse effect due 
to human greenhouse gas emissions as well as the potential progression 
of climate change as the C cycle attempts to balance itself back out.

    0:00 Earth’s Energy Balance
    2:59 Earth’s NOT in Energy Balance
    3:49 Earth’s Greenhouse Effect
    4:49 Greenhouse Effect = GOOD
    5:58 Other Atmospheric Effects?
    6:31 Actual Energy Flows on Earth
    9:28 Greenhouse Effect on Other Planets
    11:07 Earth’s Greenhouse Effect Over Time
    12:55 Consequences of C Imbalance
    16:05 Inducing C Cycle Balance

References:
Biogeochemistry: An Analysis of Global Change, 4th Ed. 
https://amzn.to/41CDHVz
Richard Wolfson, 2007- Earth's Changing Climate: 
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2...
Richard Wolfson, 2011- Energy, environment, and climate:
https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&...
Latake et al., 2015- The greenhouse effect and its impacts on 
environment: https://www.academia.edu/download/879...

GEO GIRL Website: https://www.geogirlscience.com/ (visit my website to 
see all my courses, shop merch, learn more about me, & donate to support 
the channel if you'd like!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUIJLweSg6I



/[ humor from Yellow Dot studios -  a puppet show 2 min video ]/
*Gas Nozzle BF*
Yellow Dot Studios
Sep 6, 2023
SUBSCRIBE: https://bit.ly/YellowDot-Subscribe

It's time to break up with Big Oil.
___
ABOUT:
Yellow Dot Studios is a non-profit production studio founded by Academy 
Award-winning writer-director-producer Adam McKay to fight back on 
climate disinformation and inaction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHKVNRztmT4


/[The news archive - USA Today hunker-down expectations  ]/
/*March 18, 2013 */

USA Today reports: "Could the USA deal with a Hurricane Katrina every 
two years? Such a scenario is possible by the end of the century due to 
climate change, according to a study published Monday in the Proceedings 
of the National Academy of Sciences."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/03/18/storm-surge-hurricane-climate-change-global-warming/1997113/ 



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