[TheClimate.Vote] Feb 10, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News for All -
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Feb 10 09:37:44 EST 2017
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_https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/suburbs-are-increasingly-threatened-by-wildfires-due-to-climate-change/
Suburbs Are Increasingly Threatened by Wildfires Due to Climate
Change
<https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/suburbs-are-increasingly-threatened-by-wildfires-due-to-climate-change/>
Scientific American -10 hours ago
The suburbs evoke images of white picket fences and organized
sports, a peaceful escape from big-city living. But new research
finds verdant residential communities are increasingly likely to go
up in smoke.
In an analysis of more than 23 million fires, a study published this
week in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution finds a cluster of
"economically and socially disastrous" fires, or megafires as
they're sometimes called, have scorched suburban neighborhoods,
especially across the western U.S. and southeastern Australia.
More communities could be at risk. Warmer and longer winters,
prolonged drought, and other impacts from a changing climate could
boost the number of days conducive to extreme fire events by 35
percent, the study found...
...Two-thirds of the fire events occurred on days with high fire
danger, and nearly half of the events occurred during
moderate-to-severe long-term drought, suggesting that low fuel
moisture enables the occurrence of megafires, he said. Strong winds,
which are known to promote rapid rates of fire spread, were found in
about a third of the fire events.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/02/170208111626.htm
Current climate change models understate the problem, scientists
argue <https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/02/170208111626.htm>
Science Daily -Feb 8, 2017
A new study on the relationship between people and the planet shows
that climate change is only one of many inter-related threats to the
Earth's capacity to support human life...
An international team of distinguished scientists, including five
members of the National Academies, argues that there are critical
components missing from current climate models that inform
environmental, climate, and economic policies...
The article, published in the National Science Review, describes how
the recent growth in resource use, land-use change, emissions, and
pollution has made humanity the dominant driver of change in most of
the Earth's natural systems, and how these changes, in turn, have
important feedback effects on humans with costly and serious
consequences.
The authors argue that current estimates of the impact of climate
change do not connect human variables -- such as demographics,
inequality, economic growth, and migration -- with planetary
changes. This makes current models likely to miss important
feedbacks in the real Earth-human system, especially those that may
result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes..
....In this new research, the authors present extensive evidence of
the need for a new type of model that incorporates the feedbacks
that the Earth System has on humans, and propose a framework for
future modeling that would serve as a more realistic guide for
policymaking and sustainable development.
"Current models are likely to miss critical feedbacks in the
combined Earth-Human system,"... Without including the real
feedbacks, predictions for coupled systems cannot work; the model
can get away from reality very quickly.
http://www.seeker.com/another-antarctic-ice-sheet-could-collapse-in-a-matter-of-weeks-2250814238.html
<http://www.seeker.com/another-antarctic-ice-sheet-could-collapse-in-a-matter-of-weeks-2250814238.html>
An Antarctic Iceberg the Size of Delaware Could Break Off in a
Matter of Weeks
<http://www.seeker.com/another-antarctic-ice-sheet-could-collapse-in-a-matter-of-weeks-2250814238.html>
Seeker -7 hours ago
Scientists are eyeing a growing crack in one of Antarctica's ice
shelves. A portion of the Larcen C shelf the size of Delaware could
break off in months, or even weeks - an event that could signal the
impending collapse of another of the southernmost ...
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/02/trump-climate-lawsuit/516054/
The 11-Year-Old Suing Trump Over*Climate Change*
<https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/02/trump-climate-lawsuit/516054/>
The Atlantic -16 hours ago
If*climate change*threatens their future, they reason, the
government has violated their constitutional right to due process....
...And, sometimes, she goes to court. Unlike most tweens, Avery is
suing the federal government....
...She’s the second-youngest of 21 plaintiffs, ages 9 to 20, in
Juliana v. United States, a case filed in Eugene in 2015 on the
grounds that the federal government has knowingly endangered them by
promoting the burning of fossil fuels. If climate change threatens
their future, they reason, the government has violated their
constitutional right to due process. There are roughly the same
number of defendants as plaintiffs in the case, including the
Environmental Protection Agency, the Office of the President and the
president himself. Until January 20, that was Barack Obama. Now it’s
Donald Trump...
"You’re suing Trump!" Avery recalls her classmates said when they
flocked her at school on November 9. "I’m like, ‘Yep.’ What did I
get myself into?"..
.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-09/epa-officials-yanked-from-alaska-event-as-trump-team-weighs-in
*EPA officials yanked from Alaska event as Trump team weighs in.
<https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-09/epa-officials-yanked-from-alaska-event-as-trump-team-weighs-in>*
Just three days before this week’s environment conference in Alaska,
the top Environmental Protection Agency official in Anchorage called
the organizer with some news: The agency had been instructed by the
White House to slash the number of EPA staffers who could attend.
Bloomberg News.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-08/good-luck-killing-the-epa
*Good luck killing the EPA.
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-08/good-luck-killing-the-epa>*
Dismembering the agency requires changing 45 years worth of laws,
warns one Republican who ran it. Bloomberg News.
"Everybody hates regulation," said Republican Christine Todd
Whitman, a former EPA administrator and New Jersey governor,
"because it makes you either spend money or change behavior for a
problem you may not see."
This year, as we all know, is a little different.
Dismembering the EPA could require that Congress individually change
45 years of environmental statutes, a feat that would require an
enormous amount of time, organization, and political capital....
Jeff Holmstead is a former EPA assistant administrator and now a
partner at Bracewell LLC in Washington. Charged with the
hypothetical (and extraordinarily unlikely) task of dismantling the
agency, he zeroed in on the two dozen or so statutes that assign
responsibilities to the EPA administrator. Most of these laws have
"citizen suit provisions" that let Americans sue the agency for not
doing its job. "You’d have a huge mess on your hands," if
environmentalists started suing a government official that no longer
exists.
___https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/02/08/trump-mike-catanzaro-energy-aide-lobbyist-climate-denier_
*Trump Names Industry Lobbyist and Climate Science Denier Mike Catanzaro
as Top White House Energy Aide*
Wednesday, February 8, 2017 - 13:21 • STEVE HORN
GreenWire has reported that climate change denier Mike Catanzaro — a
lobbyist for oil and gas companies Noble Energy, Devon Energy,
Encana Oil and Gas, American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers
(AFPM), and Hess Corporation — will soon become a top energy policy
aide for President Donald Trump. ..
Catanzaro's lobbying disclosure forms for quarter four of 2016 serve
as a potential preview of energy policy to come from the Trump White
House. During that quarter, Catanzaro lobbied against U.S. Bureau of
Land Management (BLM) methane regulations, against U.S. Bureau of
Safety and Environmental Enforcement offshore drilling regulations,
and for oil and gas development on U.S. public lands. ..
As DeSmog has reported, Catanzaro served as a top energy aide during
Trump's presidential campaign. According to GreenWire, he is
expected to serve as special assistant to Trump for energy and
environmental issues under the umbrella of the White House National
Economic Council.
Also: http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060049700
http://www.revelstokemountaineer.com/understanding-climate-change-means-reading-beyond-headlines-17536
Understanding*climate change*means reading beyond headlines
<http://www.revelstokemountaineer.com/understanding-climate-change-means-reading-beyond-headlines-17536>
Revelstoke Mountaineer -17 hours ago
Recent headlines about a climate study, "Shifting patterns of mild
weather in response to projected radiative forcing", in the February
2017 issue of Climatic Change illustrate the predicament. Some news
outlets implied the study showed countries such as Canada and the
U.K. would benefit from increasingly frequent "mild weather days"
brought on by climate change. Many failed to convey the true
take-home message: Climate change will have devastating consequences
for human civilization...
...a few countries, mostly in the mid-latitudes, will experience
slightly more frequent mild weather — defined as days between 18 and
30 C with less than one millimetre of rain and dew point temperature
not exceeding 20 C. But that’s not the whole story.
"The climate is changing in many places over the world and these
changes are ongoing now," Van der Wiel said in an email. "Globally,
mild weather is decreasing and in many locations summers are going
to be increasingly too hot and too humid to be considered mild.
These are not desirable changes."
*
*
http://www.lamonitor.com/content/climate-change-project-wins-science-fair-grand-prize
*Climate change*project wins science fair grand prize
<http://www.lamonitor.com/content/climate-change-project-wins-science-fair-grand-prize>
Los Alamos Monitor -13 hours ago
By Arin McKennaWednesday, February 8, 2017 Originally Posted in Los
Alamos Monitor Online
Los Alamos Public Schools County Science and Engineering Fair grand
prize winner Lillian Petersen seems to be 14 going on 40 – at least
when she is explaining her project, *"America’s Farming Future: The
Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields."*
For a panel of best of show judges, Petersen’s project stood out
among 471 entries from grades K‒12. She received a $100 gift
certificate from CB Fox, in addition to her other prizes.
Petersen estimates she put approximately 500 hours into the project,
working 40 hours a week over the summer and another 60 hours over
the holiday break. The quality of her project reflects that.
Petersen posed the question, "How will various future climate
scenarios affect future crop yields of corn, soybeans and rice?"
She hypothesized that since crop yields are dependent on weather,
more heat extremes will cause future crop yields to decrease.
To test her hypothesis, Petersen created a statistical model that
used past yields and weather data to predict future scenarios.
Petersen began by downloading seasonal crop yield data from the U.S.
Department of Agriculture for every county in the United States
since 1970 for corn, soybeans and rice.
She found that crop yields over time have greatly increased due to
technologies such as pesticides, herbicides, irrigation, fertilizers
and plant breeding, but that the yearly yield is dependent on weather.
The ninth-grader was able to determine that by comparing crop yield
data to weather data, which she obtained from the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Historical Climatology Network.
Petersen downloaded daily weather station data for every weather
station in the U.S. since 1970 and then averaged the two closest
stations to the center of every county to find the correlations
between past yields and weather.
Her data showed that the three temperature statistics with the
highest correlations to yields were summer average temperature, heat
waves and killing degree days, and that those correlated negatively
with crop yields.
"For example, when you look at a single county and look at the crop
yield plotted with the summer average temperature, when there is a
very high summer average temperature, the crop yield for that year
is very low," Petersen said.
Petersen then used her statistical model to project future crop
yields for two possible scenarios using Climate Model
Intercomparison Model Version 5.
One scenario was based on having no future technological advances in
reducing emissions. The other scenario evaluated what would happen
if emissions reduction technology advanced at the same rate it has
improved since 1970. She ran her projections through the year 2100.
"The biggest unknown in this project is whether technology will
continue to improve in the future, and at what rate it will continue
to improve at," Petersen said.
Petersen found that even in the best-case scenario, with technology
continuing to improve at the current rate, corn and soybeans yields
in particular would be hard-hit. Her model shows a loss of
approximately $14.5 billion dollars per year in corn yield by the
year 2100 with the technological improvements and $22 billion
dollars with the high emissions scenario.
*Corn yields had the highest correlations temperature.*
***"Corn is the most sensitive to heat extremes and is predicted to
decrease the most in the future. Soybeans will decrease slightly
less and rice the least," Petersen said, postulating that the
plants’ biological structures accounted for the differences. *
When asked what motivated her to devote so much time and effort to
such a complex research project, Petersen replied, "I am a very
motivated person, and I want to do a lot with my life. So I decided,
what’s a better time to start than now? And doing things like this
science fair project will help my life and my career progress and
advance into something better.
"It’s not only that. I personally enjoy it. It is what I do for fun,
enduring all those hours. And I think without the science fair
projects I would get very bored," she said.
Petersen entered her first science fair in fifth grade and won her
first award in seventh grade, when she received the junior division
grand award in the physical category and received first place in her
category in both regional and state competitions. In eighth grade
she won first place in Earth and Environmental Sciences at the local
fair.
Petersen was also a finalist in the Supercomputing Challenge in
seventh grade and received a third place in that competition last year.
Petersen has not yet begun thinking about next year’s project.
"Deciding the topic of the science fair project is really the most
important step, because that’s what everything else is based off
of," Petersen said. "So I always spend a really long time coming up
with the topic every year.
Petersen plans to make a career in research-based computer
programming. She has no particular leanings about how she will apply
that.
"I’m really interested in the impact, and I feel like, with my
computer programming, if I apply it the right way I could help a lot
of people," Petersen said. "And I guess that’s really my main goal,
not the specific type or what I’m exactly doing, but just applying
my computer programming skills in a way to help people."
Petersen is hoping to publish her project in either Nature Climate
Change or Science.
https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/02/06/trump-ties-atlantic-coast-pipeline
*Trump Team Has Ties to Atlantic Coast Pipeline Now Being Pushed by
White House
<http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/02/08/trump-team-has-ties-to-atlantic-coast-pipeline-now-being-pushed-by-white-house/>*
By Steve Horn and Itai Vardi -- On January 25, President Donald
Trump’s team listed the Atlantic Coast pipeline among the White
House’s top priorities for infrastructure projects, an attempt to
deliver on his campaign promise to invest in U.S infrastructure
programs.
Of the 50 on the list, Atlantic Coast is surprisingly the only
pipeline project named. Some had suspected Trump’s infrastructure
promise would serve as a massive pipeline giveaway. So, why
prioritize this one?
A possible answer: Several members of Trump’s transition team,
landing team, and current White House operation have connections to
companies behind the project or to firms lobbying for it.
The Atlantic Coast pipeline has been proposed by a partnership among
Dominion Resources, Duke Energy, and Southern Gas Company.
DeSmog research has revealed that a few Trump associates could
benefit financially if this prioritized pipeline opens for business.
One is Dan DiMicco, who served as a Senior Economic Adviser to
Trump’s campaign and led the new administration’s U.S.Trade
Representative transition team. He also sits on the Board of
Directors of Duke Energy, one of the pipeline project co-owners.
You Should Be More Afraid Of Steve Bannon Than*Climate Change*, Says
Bill McKibben
<https://cleantechnica.com/2017/02/09/afraid-steve-bannon-climate-change-says-bill-mckibben/>
CleanTechnica -10 hours ago
Up until now, we've been dealing with*climate change*as the most
important issue facing humanity. But this changes everything.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/02/08/national/science-health/japans-58th-showa-station-team-studies-global-warming-antarctic/
Japan's 58th Showa Station team studies*global warming*in the
Antarctic
<http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/02/08/national/science-health/japans-58th-showa-station-team-studies-global-warming-antarctic/>
The Japan Times -Feb 7, 2017
SHOWA STATION, ANTARCTICA - Some 14,000 km from Japan, a 33-member
team is researching a wide range of issues on*global warming*at
Showa Station, Japan's Antarctic research center. A key pursuit in
the research is how*global warming*is affecting ...
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/sustainable-approach_what-future-for-winter-tourism-under-global-warming-/42934230
What future for winter tourism under*global warming*?
<http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/sustainable-approach_what-future-for-winter-tourism-under-global-warming-/42934230>
swissinfo.ch -Feb 6, 2017
Skiing is no longer the money-making business it used to be and
alpine resorts need to rethink their business model before it is too
late, argues Christophe Clivaz, an expert in sustainable tourism at
the University of Lausanne..
Two-thirds of the Swiss cable car companies depend on public money
for their survival: this is the worrying fact emerging from a study
carried out by the University of Applied Sciences at Lucerne.
Mild winters punish low and mid-altitude resorts, resulting in an
inexorable decline in the number of skiers. To stay competitive,
many resorts invest heavily in their ski lifts and artificial
snowmaking. It is a strategy rejected by Clivaz, a professor at the
Institute of Geography and Sustainability at the University of
Lausanne, and co-author of the book "Winter Tourism: Climate Challenge".
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/worlds_mountains_threatened_by_global_warming_20170207
*Global Warming*Threatens the World's Mountains
<http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/worlds_mountains_threatened_by_global_warming_20170207>
Truthdig -Feb 7, 2017
LONDON - The rising temperatures caused by climate change are having
a marked effect on mountains worldwide. Science has already
established that increased*warming*is affecting distinct mountain
features such as glaciers and high-altitude species, and there is
now evidence that the entire ecosystem is undergoing change....
Across the world, climate change is altering the concentrations of
nutrients in plants and soils. Higher temperatures mean that the
concentration of nitrogen, for example, is rising significantly, but
not that of phosphorus...
"This effect is disrupting the balance between these and other
nutrients, which is making the ecosystem more vulnerable," says
Ellen Cieraad, a plant ecologist at the Institute of Environmental
Sciences of Leiden University in the Netherlands, and a lead author
of the study....
And that is worrying: "If the composition of the vegetation changes,
and on top of that the treeline is not able to migrate fast enough,
the nitrogen and phosphorous cycles will no longer coincide." More
research could establish how far these changes are affecting the
treeline..
Migration of the treeline goes hand in hand with changes in the
water cycle, snowfall and temperature, the researchers say. The
water supply becomes unreliable, for example, not only in the
mountains themselves but also in areas downstream that depend on
water from the higher altitudes to feed major rivers. And many
mountainous regions will no longer be suitable for winter sports.
http://youtu.be/OjHUHCjYP9I
http://youtu.be/0R9UfIUJB1Y *
This Day in Climate History February 10, 2010
<http://youtu.be/0R9UfIUJB1Y> - from D.R. Tucker*
On their respective MSNBC programs, Keith Olbermann and Rachel
Maddow try to explain to people who flunked all of their science
classes, many of whom are in Congress, that snow does not disprove
climate change.
http://youtu.be/OjHUHCjYP9I
http://youtu.be/0R9UfIUJB1Y
======================= ####
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