[TheClimate.Vote] Jan 20, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News for voters, candidates and officials
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Jan 20 10:12:10 EST 2017
/"The most important issue of all time" -/ /Stay well-informed about
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http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-global-warming-effects-20170118-story.html
Wildfires,*sea level rise*, coral bleaching:*Climate change*is
already here
<http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-global-warming-effects-20170118-story.html>
Los Angeles Times -6 hours ago
Although the most severe consequences of this warming have yet to
come - especially if*greenhouse gas*emissions remain at current
levels - some of the effects have already been felt..Scientists,
public health officials and even the Pentagon are watching with
great concern. Here's a look at some of those effects:
*Wildfires in the West are twice as bad*
Scientists recently determined that human-caused warming nearly
doubled the area of land that has burned since the 1980s. That
amounts to 16,000 additional square miles, or the size of
Massachusetts and Connecticut combined.
*As the Arctic ice melts, sea levels rise*
Melting glaciers and diminishing sea ice have increased the amount
of water in the oceans, leading sea levels around the world to rise
by an average of about 6 inches over the last century. At the same
time, higher temperatures have caused seas to expand. By the end of
the century, waters could rise by 6 feet or more, threatening 13.1
million residents of U.S. coastal cities with flooding, two studies
predict.
*A sea of problems*
A warmer ocean is capable of holding more dissolved carbon dioxide,
which causes the water to become more acidic over time.
*Plants and animals on the move*
In response to rising temperatures, thousands of plant and animal
species have migrated uphill or toward the poles where it's still
cool enough for them. The result: Species leave their ancestral
homes, causing local extinctions in those areas.
*Warmer temperatures may be nice for now, but the feeling won't las*t
This boils down to warmer winters and milder summers. But by the end
of the century, that trend will flip.
http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-global-warming-effects-20170118-story.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change>
'A cat in hell's chance' – why we're losing the battle to
keep*global warming*below 2C
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change>
The Guardian -19 hours ago
A global rise in temperature of just 2C would be enough to threaten
life as we know it. But leading climate scientists think even this
universally agreed target will be missed. Could dramatic action help?...
The same warming again will intensify and accelerate human-driven
changes already under way and has been described by James Hansen,
one of the first scientists to call global attention to*climate
change*, as a “prescription for long-term disaster*...*
*Is it still likely that we will stay below even 2C? In the 100
months since August 2008, I have been writing a climate-change diary
for the Guardian to raise questions and monitor progress, or the
lack of it, on climate action. To see how well we have fared, I
asked a number of leading climate scientists and analysts for their
views. The responses were as bracing as a bath in a pool of glacial
meltwater.....*
Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies has an important place in
the history of climate-change research. Hansen was its director from
1981 until 2013. Donald Trump is set to strip the institute of
funding for climate research. Its current director, Dr Gavin
Schmidt, is categoric that we are no longer likely to stay below 2C.
“The inertia in the system (oceans, economies, technologies, people)
is substantial and … so far the efforts are not commensurate with
the goal,” he says...
So, adding to the prevailing global strangeness, the edifice of
international climate policy rests on a target that no one believes
it is likely can be met. And some think even that insufficiently
ambitious. Yet, among climate scientists, there is a consensus that
swift action is vital, and with it the target remains, at least,
possible...
With the amount of carbon burned by humans, we have now created a
climate not experienced on Earth since the Pliocene era, 2m-5m years
ago. We are daily rolling the climate dice with the odds stacked
against us. But we are also clever, quick and innovative when we
want to be. Now that we understand the game better, the question we
face is whether we will choose to change it, fast and enough, so
that we can all have better lives.
*
*
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/19/chinas-xi-jinping-says-world-must-implement-paris-climate-deal
China's Xi Jinping says Paris*climate*deal must not be allowed to
fail
<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/19/chinas-xi-jinping-says-world-must-implement-paris-climate-deal>
The Guardian -3 hours ago
President says 'we only have one homeland' in a coded warning to
Donald Trump not to dismantle the agreement
China will continue to take steps to tackle*climate change*and fully
honor its obligations,” Xi added, according to a transcript
published by Xinhua, China's official news agency....
“Industrialisation has created material wealth never seen before,
but it has also inflicted irreparable damage to the environment,” Xi
went on. “We must not exhaust all the resources passed on to us by
previous generations and leave nothing to our children or pursue
development in a destructive way. Clear waters and green mountains
are as good as mountains of gold and silver. We must maintain
harmony between man and nature and pursue sustainable development.”
Zhang said Beijing would stick to its climate commitments since it
understood the importance of cutting deadly air pollution but argued
China would not want to serve as the world's “sole leader” on
climate change.
“We regard ourselves as a developing country and, in addition to
that, we've got pollution issues and are facing an economic slowdown
at home,” he said.
.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/environment/global-warming/climate-science-bedeviled-by-tipping-points/articleshow/56659419.cms
*Climate science bedeviled by 'tipping points' - Economic Times
<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/environment/global-warming/climate-science-bedeviled-by-tipping-points/articleshow/56659419.cms>*
Of the many things that keep climate scientists awake at night,
tipping points may be the scariest. To start with, these
thresholds...are largely invisible. You can't see them on the
horizon, and ... there is no turning back -- at least not on a human
timescale. ....enough frozen water to lift sea levels more than a
dozen metres;... monsoon rains ... are at risk of irretrievable
disruption.... "There are points-of-no-return where ... warming
triggers unstoppable collapse of glaciers off of Antarctica,...Think
of someone leaning back on two legs of a chair, ..."We don't know
exactly when we might pass these points -- or whether we already
have crossed some of them,"
...Other tipping points could trigger the natural
release...of...Methane and CO2 locked in the increasingly misnamed
permafrost of Russia, Canada and northern Europe is equivalent to
roughly 15 years worth of global emissions from fossil fuels at
today's levels..."Even if global warming is limited to below two
degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit)" -- the red line drawn in
the 196-nation Paris climate pact -- "some important tipping
elements may already be harmed or transformed,"....But scientists
also admit their tools are better at measuring steady, linear
progressions than sudden shifts...."The problem is that there is no
perfect analogue to what we will experience in the near
future."...http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/environment/global-warming/climate-science-bedeviled-by-tipping-points/articleshow/56659419.cms
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/01/19/merchants-of-doubt-2/
(videos) Merchants of Doubt - Naomi Oreskes interview
http://www.chronicle.com/article/The-Fine-Art-of-Sniffing-Out/238907
*Chronicle of Higher Education: The Fine Art of Sniffing Out Crappy
Science
<http://www.chronicle.com/article/The-Fine-Art-of-Sniffing-Out/238907>*
Carl T. Bergstrom and Jevin West, a pair of scientists at the
University of Washington, think it's time to arm students with boots
and shovels. They have published the outline of a course, titled
"Calling Bullshit," which would try to teach how to spot bad data
and misleading graphs at a time when bending statistics has become a
popular art form.
http://callingbullshit.org/syllabus.html
*(Syllabus) Calling Bullshit in the Age of Big Data
<http://callingbullshit.org/syllabus.html>*
In many of the course lectures we will discuss how you can spot
bullshit, call bullshit, and avoid becoming becoming the victim of
bullshit. Here we present a set of instructional essays on various
aspects of bullshit detection and refutation. Many of the examples
we draw upon are classic examples that others have brought to light
in their articles, essays, blogs, and other sources.
Week 1. Introduction to bullshit. What is bullshit? Concepts and
categories of bullshit. The art, science, and moral imperative of
calling bullshit. Brandolini's Bullshit Asymmetry Principle.
Week 2. Spotting bullshit. Truth, like liberty, requires eternal
vigilance. How do you spot bullshit in the wild? Effect sizes,
dimensions, Fermi estimation, and checks on plausibility. Claims and
the interests of those who make them.
Week 3. The natural ecology of bullshit. Where do we find bullshit?
Why news media provide bullshit. TED talks and the marketplace for
upscale bullshit. Why social media provide ideal conditions for the
growth and spread of bullshit.
Week 4. Causality One common source of bullshit data analysis arises
when people ignore, deliberately or otherwise, the fact that
correlation is not causation. The consequences can be hilarious, but
this confusion can also be used to mislead. Regression to the mean
pitched as treatment effect. Selection masked as transformation.
Week 5. Statistical traps. Base-rate fallacy / prosecutor's fallacy.
Simpson's paradox. Data censoring. Will Rogers effect, lead-time
bias, and length time bias. Means versus medians. Importance of
higher moments.
... ...http://callingbullshit.org/syllabus.html
Week 11. Fake news.. Fifteen years ago, nascent social media
platforms offered the promise of a more democratic press through
decentralized broadcasting and a decoupling of publishing from
advertising revenue. Instead, we get sectarian echo chambers and,
lately, a serious assault on the very notion of fact. Not only did
fake news play a substantive role in the November 2016 US elections,
but recently a fake news story actually provoked nuclear threats
issued by twitter.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/science/earth-highest-temperature-record.html
*Earth Sets a Temperature Record for the Third Straight Year
<https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/18/science/earth-highest-temperature-record.html>*
Marking another milestone for a changing planet, scientists reported
on Wednesday that the Earth reached its highest temperature on
record in 2016, trouncing a record set only a year earlier, which
beat one set in 2014. It is the first time in the modern era of
global warming data that temperatures have blown past the previous
record three years in a row...
The findings come two days before the inauguration of an American
president who has called global warming a Chinese plot and vowed to
roll back his predecessor's efforts to cut emissions of
heat-trapping gases...
In reality, the Earth is heating up, a point long beyond serious
scientific dispute, but one becoming more evident as the records
keep falling. Temperatures are heading toward levels that many
experts believe will pose a profound threat to both the natural
world and to human civilization...
In 2015 and 2016, the planetary warming was intensified by the
weather pattern known as El Niño, in which the Pacific Ocean
released a huge burst of energy and water vapor into the atmosphere.
But the bigger factor in setting the records was the long-term trend
of rising temperatures, which scientists say is being driven by
increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOibBy290cM&t=76s
*(video) A Message to Trump from Climate Scientists
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOibBy290cM&t=76s>*
Before the AGU meeting I read John Abraham's article 'Trump begins
filling environmental posts with clowns' in which he made the
following point:
"Or Trump could attend the world's largest geophysics meeting, which
occurs in just a few weeks (American Geophysical Union Fall
Meeting). He could walk around with a TV camera and a clipboard. Ask
any random 10 scientists any question on climate change. Let's see
how their answers compare to the information he is going to get from
his handpicked insiders."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/nov/17/trump-begins-filling-environmental-posts-with-clowns
Trump most likely would never do this. Nor can I possibly know what
kind of questions he would ask if he did visit the AGU Fall Meeting.
But I can ask scientists what their message to Trump would be if
they had a chance to speak to him. That one paragraph from Abraham's
article inspired me to do just that. During the Fall Meeting I asked
several scientists what their message would be and compiled their
responses into this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOibBy290cM&t=76s
*This Day in Climate History January 20, 1993 (video)
<http://youtu.be/2SWjIPwm954> - from D.R. Tucker
*
**January 20, 1993: In his first inaugural address, President
Clinton declares: "To renew America, we must meet challenges abroad
as well as at home. There is no longer a clear division between what
is foreign and what is domestic. The world economy, the world
environment, the world AIDS crisis, the world arms race: they affect
us all."
http://youtu.be/2SWjIPwm954
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