[TheClimate.Vote] June 15, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News

[Richard Pauli]

/June 15, 2017/

*Climate Model Predictions: History versus Observations 
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKP9EXyd1so>*
Reviewing archival video to see scientists making predictions based on 
early, primitive 1980s climate models. Did they play out?
Modern observations show the evidence.
Part of the "This is Not Cool" series for Yale Climate Connections.
See more here https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/author/psinclair/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKP9EXyd1so


*(National Geographic)  Antarctica Is Melting, and Giant Ice Cracks Are 
Just the Start 
<http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/07/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change/>**
*"These are the fastest retreating glaciers on the face of the Earth," 
says Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory 
in Pasadena, California. Rignot has studied the region for more than two 
decades, using radar from aircraft and satellites, and he believes the 
collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is only a matter of time. The 
question is whether it will take 500 years or fewer than a hundred - and 
whether humanity will have time to prepare.
"We have to get these numbers right," Rignot says. "But we have to be 
careful not to waste too much time doing that."...
As the researchers lay in their tents at night, in the middle of a 
4,000-mile arc of coastline that lacked a single permanent outpost, they 
heard loud pops and bangs coming from the ice. Each morning they saw new 
cracks, an inch wide and seemingly bottomless, cutting across its 
surface. During their five weeks of studying it, the ice under their 
boots thinned by another seven feet....
According to his calculations, the ice shelf was losing 13 cubic miles 
of ice per year from its underside; back near the grounding line, the 
ice was probably thinning up to 300 feet per year....
Large swaths of West Antarctica are hemorrhaging ice these days. The 
warming has been the most dramatic on the Antarctic Peninsula, a spine 
of ice-cloaked mountains that reaches 700 miles up toward the tip of 
South America. Catching the powerful winds and ocean currents that swirl 
endlessly around Antarctica, the peninsula gets slammed with warm air 
and water from farther north. Average annual temperatures on its west 
side have risen nearly 5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1950 - several times 
faster than the rest of the planet - and the winters have warmed an 
astonishing 9 degrees. Sea ice now forms only four months a year instead 
of seven....
It's unclear when the entire ice shelf might disintegrate. The "warm" 
water flowing underneath it from offshore is only 4 to 6 degrees 
Fahrenheit above freezing. But roughly 3,000 cubic miles of it arrives 
every year, which means the ice shelf is receiving an amount of heat 
that exceeds the output of a hundred nuclear power plants, operating 
24/7....
  Between 2002 and 2009 alone, the ice shelf in front of the Smith 
Glacier thinned by 1,500 feet in some places, the one in front of the 
Pope Glacier by up to 800 feet. The grounding lines of the Amundsen 
glaciers have retreated so far - tens of miles in some cases - that they 
now rest on seafloor that slopes down toward the center of the ice 
sheet. Each increment of retreat exposes a greater ice surface to warm 
ocean water. It's a runaway process - and scientists are urgently trying 
to figure out how fast it will run....
Fricker and her team have found that from 1994 to 2012, the amount of 
ice disappearing from all Antarctic ice shelves, not just the ones in 
the Amundsen Sea, increased 12-fold, from six cubic miles to 74 cubic 
miles per year. "I think it's time for us scientists to stop being so 
cautious" about communicating the risks, she says....
The retreat and hemorrhage of these glaciers "will accelerate over 
time," agrees Rignot. "Maybe you don't care much about that for the next 
30 to 40 years, but from 2050 to 2100 things could get really bad, and 
at that point listening to scientists is irrelevant." Yet after things 
get really bad, they could still get worse....
Until recently the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was considered secure; 
unlike West Antarctica, it sits on high ground. But mapping with 
ice-penetrating radar has revealed a low-lying region cut by glacially 
carved channels that drop as far as 8,500 feet below sea level - perfect 
for guiding warm ocean water deep into the heart of the ice sheet. The 
Totten Glacier is the largest coastal outlet in this region. If it 
collapsed, global sea level could rise 13 feet - "roughly as much as all 
of West Antarctica," Rignot points out. "One glacier alone."
   "The fuse is lit," says Blankenship. "We're just running around 
mapping where all the bombs are."
/Writer Douglas Fox has traveled to Antarctica five times and has spent 
months on the ice there. This is his first feature for National 
Geographic magazine. /
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/07/antarctica-sea-level-rise-climate-change/


    *Climate change*is shrinking the Colorado River
    <http://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-shrinking-the-colorado-river-76280>

The nation's two largest reservoirs, Lake Mead on the Arizona/Nevada 
border and Lake Powell on the Arizona/Utah border, were brim full in the 
year 2000. Four short years later, they had lost enough water to supply 
California its legally apportioned share of Colorado River water for 
more than five years. Now, 17 years later, they still have not recovered.
This ongoing, unprecedented event threatens water supplies to Los 
Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson, Denver, Salt Lake City, Albuquerque 
and some of the most productive agricultural lands anywhere in the 
world. It is critical to understand what is causing it so water managers 
can make realistic water use and conservation plans.
While overuse has played a part, a significant portion of the reservoir 
decline is due to an ongoing drought, which started in 2000 and has led 
to substantial reductions in river flows. Most droughts are caused by a 
lack of precipitation. However, our published research shows that about 
one-third of the flow decline was likely due to higher temperatures in 
the Colorado River's Upper Basin, which result from climate change.
Megadroughts, which last anywhere from 20 to 50 years or more, provide 
yet another reason to avoid putting too much faith in precipitation 
increases. We know from tree-ring studies going back to A.D. 800 that 
megadroughts have occurred previously in the basin.
Several new studies indicate that with warmer temperatures, the 
likelihood of megadroughts skyrockets in the 21st century, to a point 
where the odds of one occurring are better than 80 percent. So while we 
might have periods with average or above-average precipitation, it also 
seems likely that we will have decades with less flow than normal.
http://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-shrinking-the-colorado-river-76280


    *Climate Change*Pushing Tropical Diseases Toward Arctic
    <http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/06/vibrio-zika-west-nile-malaria-diseases-spreading-climate-change/>

"So often so many of the things we talk about with climate change are 
'this is going to be a problem in 2030 or 2050 or 2100,' and it sounds 
so far away," says Maloy. "But we're talking about things where our 
one-degree centigrade change in temperature is already enough to affect 
infections."
Already in Europe, for example, the ticks that carry Lyme disease, once 
largely limited to the south, are finding new hosts as far north as 
Sweden. Some winters aren't cold enough to kill the young nymphs, which 
also allows them to stick around another season. A similar issue has 
struck a region near Russia's Ural Mountains, which has seen a 23-fold 
increase in tick-borne encephalitis in 20 years. Temperature changes 
have lengthened the tick season by half (the same problem is hammering 
moose). Meanwhile, the sandflies that host parasites that cause 
leishmaniasis, some varieties of which cause skin lesions or spleen and 
liver damage, are showing up in north Texas.
"We have clear evidence in many cases things are happening already, and 
they're tightly correlated to changes in ambient temperature, extreme 
weather, or water temperature," Maloy says.
Before 2004, for example, Alaskan waters were thought to be too cold to 
support enough Vibrio to cause disease. But around July 4 that year, 
aboard a small cruise ship, several dozen passengers got sick after 
eating oysters from the Gulf of Alaska - more than 1,000 kilometers 
further north than the previous northernmost Vibrio incident. The waters 
that summer around the oyster beds were 2 degrees warmer than they'd 
ever been.
"What's happening here is related to climate change - no question," says 
Jay Grimes, a microbial ecologist at the University of Southern 
Mississippi's Gulf Coast Research Laboratory.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/06/vibrio-zika-west-nile-malaria-diseases-spreading-climate-change/


    How Trump Could Slow*Climate Change *Projects Around the World
    <http://time.com/4813115/paris-agreement-climate-change-trump-green-climate-fund/>

In addition to pulling out of Paris, which will not take effect until 
2020, Trump has reneged on $2 billion in unpaid commitments to the Green 
Climate Fund (GCF), which was created in advance of the Paris Agreement 
to support projects to address climate change in the developing world. 
Climate finance experts fear it could be a sign of further cuts to other 
programs that depend on American resources...
Two billion dollars may sound small in the scheme of international 
development, but climate finance experts say such a commitment goes 
further than meets the eye. Much of the money would have been used to 
help build basic infrastructure necessary to develop clean energy 
sources. Other funding would have supported the development of markets 
to catalyze private investment. And, because many of the GCF investments 
pay returns, money given to the fund would help pay for more than one 
project. In total, developed countries committed to send $100 billion 
annually in financing to the developing world by 2020. The end of U.S. 
financial support - and the private investment it sparks - could 
threaten that goal.
http://time.com/4813115/paris-agreement-climate-change-trump-green-climate-fund/


    Study: Wildfires,*Climate Change*Could Make Sierra a Polluter
    <http://www.ucmerced.edu/news/2017/study-wildfires-climate-change-could-make-sierra-polluter>

In a paper published recently in Scientific Reports Opens a New Window.  
-  "Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected 
climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada"  - Westerling and 
collaborators from the University of New Mexico and Penn State 
University used three climate models and data from the Intergovernmental 
Panel on Climate Change to examine how rising global temperatures and 
increasingly severe wildfires will affect Sierra Nevada forests.
Their conclusion: Changing conditions will turn today's Sierra Nevada 
forests into tomorrow's greenhouse gas emitters.
"Forests play an important part in regulating the levels of atmospheric 
carbon," Westerling explained. "Forests are carbon sinks, essentially 
giant stockpiles of carbon. Forests are also active carbon consumers. 
They remove carbon dioxide from the air and convert it into biomass. 
This traps the carbon, which is no longer free to act as a greenhouse 
gas in Earth's atmosphere.
http://www.ucmerced.edu/news/2017/study-wildfires-climate-change-could-make-sierra-polluter


    Donald Trump to mayor of island sinking due to*climate change*:
    Don't worry about it!
    <http://www.salon.com/2017/06/14/donald-trump-to-mayor-of-island-sinking-due-to-climate-change-dont-worry-about-it/>

Despite scientists saying climate change has caused the island to shrink 
both Trump and the mayor want to ignore it
After President Donald Trump watched a story aired on CNN  -  a network 
he says he never watches  -  which detailed the devastating impact 
climate change has had on a small island in the Chesapeake Bay, he 
called the mayor of the island to inform him that everything would be 
just fine.
Virginia's Tangier Island is shrinking at a rate of 15 feet each year, 
the Washington Post noted, and the Army Corps of Engineers has said the 
cause is from "coastal erosion and rising sea levels." But that wasn't 
enough to convince the president, or even the island's Mayor James Eskridge.
"Donald Trump, if you see this, whatever you can do, we welcome any help 
you can give us," Eskridge told CNN. "I love Trump as much as any family 
member I got."
Eskridge got his wish, and the president gave him a call.
"He said we shouldn't worry about rising sea levels," Eskridge told the 
Post. "*He said that 'your island has been there for hundreds of years, 
and I believe your island will be there for hundreds more."*
http://www.salon.com/2017/06/14/donald-trump-to-mayor-of-island-sinking-due-to-climate-change-dont-worry-about-it/


*This Day in Climate History June 15, 2010 
<http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/us/politics/16obama.html?pagewanted=all>  
-  from D.R. Tucker
*In an address from the Oval Office, President Obama declares:

    "For decades, we have known the days of cheap and easily accessible
    oil were numbered.  For decades, we’ve talked and talked about the
    need to end America’s century-long addiction to fossil fuels.  And
    for decades, we have failed to act with the sense of urgency that
    this challenge requires.  Time and again, the path forward has been
    blocked -- not only by oil industry lobbyists, but also by a lack of
    political courage and candor.
    "The consequences of our inaction are now in plain sight. Countries
    like China are investing in clean energy jobs and industries that
    should be right here in America.  Each day, we send nearly $1
    billion of our wealth to foreign countries for their oil.  And
    today, as we look to the Gulf, we see an entire way of life being
    threatened by a menacing cloud of black crude.

    "We cannot consign our children to this future.  The tragedy
    unfolding on our coast is the most painful and powerful reminder yet
    that the time to embrace a clean energy future is now.  Now is the
    moment for this generation to embark on a national mission to
    unleash America’s innovation and seize control of our own destiny.

    "This is not some distant vision for America.  The transition away
    from fossil fuels is going to take some time, but over the last year
    and a half, we’ve already taken unprecedented action to jumpstart
    the clean energy industry.  As we speak, old factories are reopening
    to produce wind turbines, people are going back to work installing
    energy-efficient windows, and small businesses are making solar panels.

    "Consumers are buying more efficient cars and trucks, and families
    are making their homes more energy-efficient.  Scientists and
    researchers are discovering clean energy technologies that someday
    will lead to entire new industries.

    "Each of us has a part to play in a new future that will benefit all
    of us.  As we recover from this recession, the transition to clean
    energy has the potential to grow our economy and create millions of
    jobs -– but only if we accelerate that transition. Only if we seize
    the moment.  And only if we rally together and act as one nation –-
    workers and entrepreneurs; scientists and citizens; the public and
    private sectors.
    "When I was a candidate for this office, I laid out a set of
    principles that would move our country towards energy independence. 
    Last year, the House of Representatives acted on these principles by
    passing a strong and comprehensive energy and climate bill –- a bill
    that finally makes clean energy the profitable kind of energy for
    America’s businesses.

    "Now, there are costs associated with this transition.  And there
    are some who believe that we can’t afford those costs right now. I
    say we can’t afford not to change how we produce and use energy -–
    because the long-term costs to our economy, our national security,
    and our environment are far greater.
    "So I’m happy to look at other ideas and approaches from either
    party -– as long they seriously tackle our addiction to fossil
    fuels.  Some have suggested raising efficiency standards in our
    buildings like we did in our cars and trucks.  Some believe we
    should set standards to ensure that more of our electricity comes
    from wind and solar power.  Others wonder why the energy industry
    only spends a fraction of what the high-tech industry does on
    research and development -– and want to rapidly boost our
    investments in such research and development.

    "All of these approaches have merit, and deserve a fair hearing in
    the months ahead.  But the one approach I will not accept is
    inaction.  The one answer I will not settle for is the idea that
    this challenge is somehow too big and too difficult to meet.  You
    know, the same thing was said about our ability to produce enough
    planes and tanks in World War II.  The same thing was said about our
    ability to harness the science and technology to land a man safely
    on the surface of the moon.  And yet, time and again, we have
    refused to settle for the paltry limits of conventional wisdom. 
    Instead, what has defined us as a nation since our founding is the
    capacity to shape our destiny -– our determination to fight for the
    America we want for our children.  Even if we’re unsure exactly what
    that looks like.  Even if we don’t yet know precisely how we’re
    going to get there.  We know we’ll get there."
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJW4_FvVKo
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/us/politics/16obama.html?pagewanted=all


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