[TheClimate.Vote] June 20, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Jun 20 09:24:27 EDT 2017
/June 20, 2017/
*
**20 flights already canceled as Phoenix nears 120-degree day
<http://www.azcentral.com/story/travel/airlines/2017/06/19/heat-cancels-phoenix-flights/409634001/>*
(video report) http://azc.cc/1N8X22V
The extreme heat forecast for Phoenix on Tuesday has caused the
cancellation of 20 American Airline flights out of Sky Harbor
International Airport.
According to a statement from American Airlines, the American Eagle
regional flights use the Bombardier CRJ aircraft, which has a maximum
operating temperature of 118 degrees. Tuesday's forecast for Phoenix
includes a high of 120 degrees, and the flights that are affected were
to take off between 3 and 6 p.m.
Extreme heat affects a plane's ability to take off. Hot air is less
dense than cold air, and the hotter the temperature, the more speed a
plane needs to lift off. A runway might not be long enough to allow a
plane to achieve the ngepart between 3 and 6 p.m. Monday, Tuesday or
Wednesday. The flight changes would be free of charge.
This is reminiscent of Phoenix's record-setting high temperature of 122
degrees on June 26, 1990, which grounded some airlines for the day.
Larger jets, such as Airbus and Boeing, have bigger engines and aren't
expected to be grounded by this week's heat.
http://www.azcentral.com/story/travel/airlines/2017/06/19/heat-cancels-phoenix-flights/409634001/
- more:
*Southwest US Heat Wave June 2017
<http://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/events/southwest-us-heat-wave-june-2017>*
(USA) The fingerprint of global warming has been firmly identified in
the increasing intensity, duration and frequency of extreme heat events.
85 percent of recent record-hot days globally have been attributed to
climate change.
It is within this context that mid-June temperatures are soaring 15 to
30°F above normal across the Southwestern US, from California's Central
Valley, to Las Vegas, and down to Phoenix. High temperatures are typical
before the Southwest monsoon season; however, the extreme -
record-breaking - nature of the event is a classic signal of climate
change. This is the second of two back-to-back years of extreme heat in
the Southwest during the pre-monsoon season.
Heat waves have generally become more frequent across the US in recent
decades, with western regions setting records for numbers of these
events in the 2000s.
http://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/events/southwest-us-heat-wave-june-2017
- more:
A third of the world now faces deadly heatwaves as result of*climate
change*
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/19/a-third-of-the-world-now-faces-deadly-heatwaves-as-result-of-climate-change>
Study shows risks have climbed steadily since 1980, and the number of
people in danger will grow to 48% by 2100 even if emissions are
drastically reduced.
Nearly a third of the world's population is now exposed to climatic
conditions that produce deadly heatwaves, as the accumulation of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere makes it "almost inevitable" that
vast areas of the planet will face rising fatalities from high
temperatures, new research has found.
Climate change has escalated the heatwave risk across the globe, the
study states, with nearly half of the world's population set to suffer
periods of deadly heat by the end of the century even if greenhouse
gases are radically cut.
"For heatwaves, our options are now between bad or terrible," said
Camilo Mora, an academic at the University of Hawaii and lead author of
the study.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/19/a-third-of-the-world-now-faces-deadly-heatwaves-as-result-of-climate-change
- more:*
(video + text) Attributing Extremes to Climate Change
<https://climatecrocks.com/2017/06/19/attributing-extremes-to-climate-change/>*
June 19, 2017
It's been an axiom of climate science that "we can't attribute a
specific weather event to climate change".
Now, at least in relation to certain kinds of events, that's changing –
as the warming signal emerges ever more clearly from the noise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsRDWt_vX_M
Climate Signals:
Global warming has amplified the intensity, duration and frequency
of extreme heat events. The National Academy of Sciences reports and
validates numerous studies as well as two major science assessment
reviews that definitively identify the fingerprint of human influence in
driving the changes observed to date.
These events occur on multiple time scales-from a single day or
week, to months or entire seasons-and are defined by temperatures
significantly above the historic average for that period.
The climate has shifted significantly, leading to more heat records
in every season. The number of local record-breaking average monthly
temperature extremes worldwide is now on average five times larger than
expected in a climate with no long-term warming. 85 percent of recent
record-hot days globally have been attributed to climate change.
The more extreme the heat wave, the more likely the event can be
attributed to global warming. However, even the impact of climate change
on "moderate" heat waves (i.e. 1-in-3 year events) is dramatic, with a
75 percent share of such heat events now attributed to climate change.
In a stable climate, the ratio of days that are record hot to days
that are record cold is approximately even. However, in our warming
climate, record highs have begun to outpace record lows, with the
imbalance growing for the past three decades. 85 percent of recent
record-hot days globally are attributed to climate change.
The world is not quite at the point where every hot temperature
record has a human fingerprint, but it's getting close to that. -
Noah Diffenbaugh, Stanford University
https://climatecrocks.com/2017/06/19/attributing-extremes-to-climate-change/
*Coffee under threat Will it taste worse as the planet warms?
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-fa38cb91-bdc0-4229-8cae-1d5c3b447337>*
Coffee drinkers could face poorer-tasting, higher-priced brews, as a
warming climate causes the amount of land suitable for coffee production
to shrink, say scientists from London's Kew Gardens...
Coffee production in Ethiopia, the birthplace of the high quality
Arabica coffee bean and Africa's largest exporter, could be in serious
jeopardy over the next century unless action is taken, according to a
report, published today...
"In Ethiopia and all over the world really, if we do nothing there will
be less coffee, it will probably taste worse and will cost more," Dr
Aaron Davis, coffee researcher at Kew and one of the report's authors,
told the BBC.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-fa38cb91-bdc0-4229-8cae-1d5c3b447337
- more:
*Resilience potential of the Ethiopian coffee sector under climate
change
<https://www.nature.com/articles/nplants201781.epdf?shared_access_token=Tba6HP5EFmB5xAbbg1aIgtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O-SET6HkqXROWSHhuHWdE-zdjtr8-835Mi4TsnPcNC5avqoaeAHJhBBUGmLNawpsr679ZTljVLOmItqHC--iGnjvjKbnwvDhlBrXBJ82Y5RhOX7oUgdtUFn4dea1vRVR_NzWTy8cxetFpWz3a5blChyLp39QTkHXs1MjEyozwQZIpGhghBBZkKBcjXipGqkEI%3D>*
Justin Moat1,2*, Jenny Williams1, Susana Baena1,2, Timothy Wilkinson1,
Tadesse W. Gole3,Zeleke K. Challa3, Sebsebe Demissew1,4and Aaron P. Davis1*
Coffee farming provides livelihoods for around 15 million farmers in
Ethiopia and generates a quarter of the country's export earnings.
Against a backdrop of rapidly increasing temperatures and decreasing
rainfall, there is an urgent need to understand the influence of climate
change on coffee production. Using a modelling approach in combination
with remote sensing, supported by rigorous ground-truthing, we project
changes in suitability for coffee farming under various climate change
scenarios, specifically by assessing the exposure of coffee farming to
future climatic shifts. We show that 39–59%of the current growing area
could experience climatic changes that are large enough to render them
unsuitable for coffee farming, in the absence of significant
interventions or major influencing factors. Conversely, relocation of
coffee areas, in combination with forest conservation or
re-establishment, could see at least a fourfold (>400%) increase in
suitable coffee farming area. We identify key coffee-growing areas that
are susceptible to climate change, as well as those that are
climatically resilient.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nplants201781.epdf?shared_access_token=Tba6HP5EFmB5xAbbg1aIgtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O-SET6HkqXROWSHhuHWdE-zdjtr8-835Mi4TsnPcNC5avqoaeAHJhBBUGmLNawpsr679ZTljVLOmItqHC--iGnjvjKbnwvDhlBrXBJ82Y5RhOX7oUgdtUFn4dea1vRVR_NzWTy8cxetFpWz3a5blChyLp39QTkHXs1MjEyozwQZIpGhghBBZkKBcjXipGqkEI%3D
Wine Industry Leaders Take on Climate Change at Vinexpo
<http://www.winespectator.com/webfeature/show/id/Vinexpo-Bordeaux-Climate-Change-Wine-Conference-Fire-and-Rain>
Wine Spectator kicked off Vinexpo, the international wine-trade fair
held biennially in Bordeaux, on Sunday by gathering experts and industry
pioneers to tackle one of the most critical issues facing the global
wine community: climate change. Senior editor Dana Nigro served as
moderator for "Fire and Rain: Climate Change and the Wine Industry," a
lively and thought-provoking discussion of the environmental issues
facing vintners today and in the future.
Harvard professor John Holdren opened the conference by telling a rapt
audience that the land suitable for grapegrowing will potentially shrink
by 23 percent to 75 percent by the year 2050, and that higher average
temperatures, heat waves, droughts, torrential downpours, hailstorms,
pests, and the effects of increased CO2 on grape chemistry will test the
wine industry's resilience.
*"Adaptability and resilience are extremely important, but if we do not
reduce emissions, then adaptability and resilience will fail," *said
Holdren.
He said that 200 years of climate-change science leaves no room for
doubt that climate changes are due to "emissions of heat-trapping gases
from fossil-fuel burning and land-use change." Those changes, and the
harm they do to human life and health, property, ecosystems and
economies, will worsen in the near future, no matter what action the
world takes now, because of the amount of time it will take to reverse
these already-in-process climate and energy system changes. However, the
former White House science adviser said, strong and immediate remedial
action will greatly reduce the severity of those negative environmental
effects.
Holdren also bashed the myth that going green is an economy killer.
Holdren, who was director of the White House Office of Science &
Technology under President Barack Obama, argued persuasively that a
healthy environment is the key to a robust economy. "Wine is an
important product in the national economies that grow wine," said
Holdren. "I would hope the wine industry would speak up as a group."
http://www.winespectator.com/webfeature/show/id/Vinexpo-Bordeaux-Climate-Change-Wine-Conference-Fire-and-Rain
Thin ice: Vanishing ice only exacerbates a bad, climate change-fueled
situation
<https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/06/thin-ice-vanishing-ice-only-exacerbates-a-bad-climate-change-fueled-situation/>
How's the Earth's ice system changing? Look to the active cryosphere.
CONOR PURCELL - 6/19/2017
Most people view our planet's vanishing ice as a symptom of climate
change. And if they pay a bit more attention, some people might even be
aware of some of its effects, including sea level rise and the opening
up of the Arctic to shipping. But ice is also an active player in the
Earth's climate-it doesn't only respond to warming by melting. Changes
in our planet's ice are capable of feeding back on the climate system,
creating further consequences for the globe...
the behavior of the cryosphere is changing. That is primarily because
ice responds to rising temperatures, melting with increasing heat. For
example, shelf ice, which floats on the oceans near ice sheets, can
weaken in response to the warming water below, causing destabilization
and collapse. In the Arctic, sea ice is vanishing in the summers,
changing the way in which the ocean absorbs sunlight. Across the
continents, mountain glaciers and the ice sheets of Greenland and
Antarctica are melting. Cryosphere changes like these are having
profound impacts on our planet.
....the behavior of the cryosphere is changing. That is primarily
because ice responds to rising temperatures, melting with increasing
heat. For example, shelf ice, which floats on the oceans near ice
sheets, can weaken in response to the warming water below, causing
destabilization and collapse. In the Arctic, sea ice is vanishing in the
summers, changing the way in which the ocean absorbs sunlight. Across
the continents, mountain glaciers and the ice sheets of Greenland and
Antarctica are melting. Cryosphere changes like these are having
profound impacts on our planet.
While Greenland is the bigger problem now, Antarctica is much bigger and
has more ice. Long term, it has much more potential for affecting global
sea level. According to Sutter, "if you look at a business-as-usual
climate scenario, a destabilized Antarctic ice sheet could raise sea
levels by more than a meter by the end of the century."
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/06/thin-ice-vanishing-ice-only-exacerbates-a-bad-climate-change-fueled-situation/
*New Video: John Cook and the 97 Percent
<https://climatecrocks.com/2017/06/19/new-video-john-cook-and-the-97-percent/>*
<https://climatecrocks.com/2017/06/19/new-video-john-cook-and-the-97-percent/>June
19, 2017
Scientific conclusions derive from an understanding of basic laws
supported by laboratory experiments, observations of nature, and
mathematical and computer modeling. Like all human beings, scientists
make mistakes, but the scientific process is designed to find and
correct them. This process is inherently adversarial""scientists build
reputations and gain recognition not only for supporting conventional
wisdom, but even more so for demonstrating that the scientific consensus
is wrong and that there is a better explanation. That's what Galileo,
Pasteur, Darwin, and Einstein did. But when some conclusions have been
thoroughly and deeply tested, questioned, and examined, they gain the
status of "well-established theories" and are often spoken of as "facts.
video https://youtu.be/7d8PwPHMKEw
Climate Change and the Integrity of Science
"There's no such thing as settled science" and "science does not work by
consensus", are things we commonly hear from people who really should
know better.
The earth revolves around the sun. Apples fall down. Oceans expand when
warmed.
These are in fact, examples of "settled science" – accepted by
consensus. We don't re-litigate them in every paper about gravity or
astrophysics.
If you google "climate, 97 percent consensus" or some permutation
thereof, you'll be treated to page after page of climate denial
nonsense, some elaborately produced, some not, seeking to knock down the
idea, essentially, that scientists believe in science.
Climate deniers understand that the scientific consensus is a critical
gateway belief, one that most Americans are still unaware of, that makes
citizens much more likely to understand the gravity of climate change,
and support efforts to curb it. So a lot of effort goes into attacking
this idea.
video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjuGCJJUGsg
While the "97 percent of climate scientists agree planet is warming and
humans are the cause" meme has gotten pretty good penetration in the
main stream media – most talking heads are aware enough to include that
in any discussion of climate – in the social media sphere, the National
Academy of Science does not have as strong a presence as
jackasswithablog dot com.
https://climatecrocks.com/2017/06/19/new-video-john-cook-and-the-97-percent/
*(sarcastic video rant) Coal: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aw6RsUhw1Q8&t=1239s>*
We've heard a lot of talk about coal miners in the last year, but what
are the real issues surrounding coal? John Oliver and a giant squirrel
look into it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aw6RsUhw1Q8&t=1239s
Rick Perry just denied that humans are the main cause of climate
change
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/06/19/trumps-energy-secretary-just-denied-that-man-made-carbon-dioxide-is-the-main-driver-for-climate-change/>
Energy Secretary Rick Perry on Monday denied that man-made carbon
dioxide emissions are the primary cause of climate change...
Asked in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" whether he believed that
carbon dioxide was "the primary control knob for the temperature of the
Earth and for climate," Perry said that "No, most likely the primary
control knob is the ocean waters and this environment that we live in."
Perry added that "the fact is this shouldn't be a debate about, 'Is the
climate changing, is man having an effect on it?' Yeah, we are. The
question should be just how much, and what are the policy changes that
we need to make to effect that?"
Perry's comments fall in line with what Environmental Protection Agency
administrator Scott Pruitt said in a March interview on the program.
Pruitt said then that he does not believe carbon dioxide is a primary
contributor to global warming.
Both men's views contradict the conclusions of scientists at Pruitt's
own EPA as well as NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration and the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/06/19/trumps-energy-secretary-just-denied-that-man-made-carbon-dioxide-is-the-main-driver-for-climate-change/
Sweden's Largest Pension Divests From Paris Accord Violators,
Including ExxonMobil & TransCanada
<https://cleantechnica.com/2017/06/19/swedens-largest-pension-divests-paris-accord-violators-inc-exxonmobil-transcanada/>
Sweden's largest pension fund, AP7, announced last week that it had
divested all its investments in six separate companies that it says had
violated the Paris Climate Agreement, including big name companies such
as ExxonMobil, Gazprom, and TransCanada.
AP7 provides pensions to 3.5 million Swedish citizens, making it the
country's largest national pension fund. Last week, the group announced
that it had divested itself from six companies it believed had violated
the Paris Climate Agreement in different ways. Specifically, AP7 accused
ExxonMobil, Westar, Southern Corp, and Entergy of fighting against
climate legislation in the United States, Gazprom for exploring for oil
in the Russian Arctic, and TransCanada for building large-scale
pipelines across North America.
"Since the last screening in December 2016, the Paris agreement to the
U.N. Climate Convention is one of the norms we include in our analysis,"
AP7 said in a statement.
Somewhat unsurprisingly, the companies involved have added their own
voice to the discussion. In an emailed statement to news outlets,
ExxonMobil said that it respectfully disagrees with the decision of AP7,
"which has not communicated to us its evaluation process. We have been
vocal in our support of the Paris climate agreement, which we believe is
an effective global framework for mitigating the risk of climate
change." And, to be fair, ExxonMobil has definitely loudly proclaimed
its support of the Paris Climate Agreement, both when Rex Tillerson was
its CEO, and afterwards, when Tillerson had moved on up in the world to
be the new US Secretary of State.
However, environmental groups are less forgiving of ExxonMobil's efforts.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/06/19/swedens-largest-pension-divests-paris-accord-violators-inc-exxonmobil-transcanada/
- more:
Fighting global warming and*climate change*requires a broad energy
portfolio
<https://phys.org/news/2017-06-full-toolbox-climate-problem.html>
Can the continental United States make a rapid, reliable and low-cost
transition to an energy system that relies almost exclusively on wind,
solar and hydroelectric power? While there is growing excitement for
this vision, a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences (PNAS) by 21 of the nation's leading energy experts, including
David G. Victor and George R. Tynan from the University of California
San Diego, describes a more complicated reality. These researchers argue
that achieving net-zero carbon emissions requires the incorporation of a
much broader suite of energy sources and approaches...
The paper published by PNAS the week of June 19, 2017, with Christopher
Clack as first author, provides a rigorous analysis that corrects a 2015
research roadmap indicating that the continental United States could be
reliably powered at low cost, in as little as 35 to 40 years, relying on
just solar, wind, and hydroelectric power. The researchers write that
the conclusions in the 2015 paper are not supported by adequate and
realistic analysis and do not provide a reliable guide to whether and at
what cost such a transition might be achieved.
"Wind, solar and hydroelectric power can, and will, be important parts
of any moves to decarbonize our energy system and therefore combat
climate change, but given today's technical challenges and
infrastructure realities, renewables won't be the only solution,
Read more at:
https://phys.org/news/2017-06-full-toolbox-climate-problem.html#jCp
Our View: On climate change, just ask a lobsterman
<http://www.centralmaine.com/2017/06/19/our-view-on-climate-change-just-ask-a-lobsterman/>
For the men and women who must pull a living, lobster trap by lobster
trap, out of the Gulf of Maine, it isn't up for debate - they have seen
the change with their own eyes. When you find that the best spots for
fishing have moved, or that there's a new disease in the mix - when you
have actually watched temperatures rise and the ocean ecosystem
transform - there is no question at all, except over how you're going to
deal with it...
Instead, the Trump administration is doing its best to not confront it
at all. President Donald Trump announced he was pulling the United
States from the historic Paris climate accord, prompting the questions
over whether he believed in man-made climate change, a question members
of his cabinet answer in the negative without hesitation.
http://www.centralmaine.com/2017/06/19/our-view-on-climate-change-just-ask-a-lobsterman/
*Climate change data is being transformed into beautiful, haunting
symphonies
<http://www.wired.co.uk/article/climate-symphony-data-sonification>*
By ALEXANDRA SIMON-LEWIS
Data sonification is being used to evoke the sounds of a climate in crisis
Sound has always acted as a warning for us, we have this ingrained in
our limbic system. This is a new way of expressing the climate change
issue."
Data sonification is the process of transforming numerical data into
sound. Corresponding sounds are mapped onto specific data points and as
each section of a dataset evolves the technique can be used to create a
complex musical piece. It can mark change over time, rises and falls in
specific factors and trends within a certain field...
Borromeo and her team at Climate Symphony, including co-director
Katharine Round and composer Jamie Perera, chart this data across
musical notation, working with meteorologists, conservationists, sound
artists and investigative journalists. Every bar of music in Climate
Symphony is equivalent to one year of scientific data - with recordings
amassing a total of 20 years from 1994 to 2014. These raw data files are
sonified by feeding them into a programme to sort them into notes, or by
turning the data into graphs which can then be transposed onto a piano
keyboard...
As well as grappling with data from a dying planet, the project also
highlights a conflict. "Tragedy sounds really good," says Borromeo, "And
that's a conflict. I'm jarred by it and I hear it everyday. It's the
sound of flooding in the Maldives, or food shortages and war in Syria,
things that feel distant and very far away." ..
Her message is simple: "Existence is resistance."
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/climate-symphony-data-sonification
- more at:
*(Film - London) Climate Symphony
<http://www.eastendfilmfestival.com/programme-archive/climate-symphony/>*
Recently presented as part of the Extinction Marathon at the Serpentine
Gallery, London, the Climate Symphony is a new project directed by
filmmaker Katherine Round and Leah Borromeo of Disobedient Films, in
collaboration with composer Jamie Perera. The project takes takes
climate data and sonifies it, asking the question "does data have
emotion?". What is the sound of a dying planet? Climate Symphony turns
datasets on climate change into musical notes, timings and phrases. This
raw material is transformed into musical scores performed by the people,
places and things reflected in that data. Working at the intersection of
technology, data journalism and art, Climate Symphony is a fully
scaleable project with a vision to use sound as a journalistic tool,
this is social engagement through sound. This is what our planet sounds
like through its lungs.
http://www.eastendfilmfestival.com/programme-archive/climate-symphony/
The Dangers Of*Climate Change*Are Real In This New Comic Anthology
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-dangers-of-climate-change-are-real-in-this-new-comic-anthology_us_594820bae4b0cddbb008ad9f>
In the past decade or so, a subgenre of dystopian fiction has emerged to
confront our changing planet: climate fiction, or "cli-fi." In stories
like Jeff VanderMeer's "Southern Reach" trilogy, or Kim Stanley
Robinson's New York 2140 and Claire Vaye Watkins' Gold Fame Citrus,
characters confront floods, droughts and other environmental catastrophes.
But, as a recent post on the Smithsonian blog points out, these stories
are swiftly becoming not just future possibilities, but present realities.
*https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/782452551/warmer-a-collection-of-poetry-comics-about-climate*
In an interview with HuffPost, VanderMeer noted that, "the solutions a
fiction writer can provide, the speculation, is perhaps edging toward
offensive in a policy context ― because we have scientists telling us
what we need to do and they are the experts."
A new cartoon anthology called Warmer addresses these issues and more.
Co-edited by artists Madeleine Witt and Andrew White, the collection of
works serves to provide support and hope to those who are mourning the
damage done to the earth.
In an interview with HuffPost, White said, "As co-editors of Warmer,
Madeleine and I wanted to make a book to offer comfort for those already
fearful about climate change. So for the most part, Warmer doesn't aim
to convince anyone of anything. We imagined Warmer in part as a book
that will function to encourage and support activists; to comfort those
who, like ourselves, are wrestling with the grief of climate change."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-dangers-of-climate-change-are-real-in-this-new-comic-anthology_us_594820bae4b0cddbb008ad9f
*This Day in Climate History June 20, 1979
<http://video.msnbc.msn.com/rachel-maddow/53740458> - from D.R. Tucker*
Solar heaters are installed on the roof of the White House by President
Carter. The panels would be yanked down by President Reagan in August 1986.
http://youtu.be/_88idk1VJGU
http://video.msnbc.msn.com/rachel-maddow/53740458
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