[TheClimate.Vote] November 15, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/November 15, 2017
/
*COP23 How to find conference documents 
<https://cop23.unfccc.int/cop23/how-to-find-conference-documents>*
https://cop23.unfccc.int/cop23/how-to-find-conference-documents

*(video) Special Report: Revolt at Trump’s Pro-Coal, Pro-Nuclear & 
Pro-Gas Panel Rocks U.N. Climate Summit 
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INH936RdzXU>
*https://democracynow.org - *Democracy Now! *was there when activists 
and Democratic lawmakers at the U.N. climate summit in Bonn, Germany, 
staged a full-fledged revolt Monday when the Trump administration made 
its official debut at this year's conference with a forum pushing coal, 
gas and nuclear power. The presentation was entitled "The Role of 
Cleaner and More Efficient Fossil Fuels and Nuclear Power in Climate 
Mitigation." The panel was the only official appearance by the U.S. 
delegation during this year's U.N. climate summit. Of the four corporate 
representatives pushing nuclear, gas and coal, Lenka Kollar of NuScale 
Power and Amos Hochstein of Tellurian told Amy Goodman that they 
disagreed with Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the climate 
agreement.*
*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INH936RdzXU*


Labour vows to factor climate change risk into economic forecasts 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/13/labour-vows-to-factor-climate-change-risk-into-economic-forecasts>*
The risk posed by climate change would be factored into projections from 
the government's independent economic forecaster ifLabour 
<https://www.theguardian.com/politics/labour>took office, the shadow 
chancellor will announce on Tuesday.
John McDonnell <https://www.theguardian.com/politics/john-mcdonnell>will 
highlight the human and economic costs of manmade climate change, 
calling it the "greatest single public challenge" and say the government 
should include the fiscal risks posed by global warming in future forecasts.
The landmark change would, for the first time, put climate change on an 
equal footing with other complex challenges affecting the public 
finances such as demography.
Under a Labour government, theOffice for Budget Responsibility 
<https://www.theguardian.com/business/office-for-budget-responsibility>would 
be given total independence, McDonnell will announce, saying the 
forecaster would report directly to parliament rather than the Treasury.
"We want the public, whether businesses or voters, to be absolutely 
confident that the public finances are properly scrutinised and managed."
Environmentalists welcomed the proposal though cautioned that the 
effects of climate change could not all be given economic value.
Greenpeace UK's chief scientist, Dr Doug Parr, said the change would 
"help concentrate the minds of future governments on the urgency and 
scale of the challenge" of climate change on the economy.
"Major companies and financial institutions have already started 
factoring in the impacts of climate change in their forecasts, so it's 
right that the UK government should do the same for the public purse," 
he said.
"Not all environmental degradation can be translated into monetary 
values, but if you just look at the billions of pounds of damage caused 
by floods, you can see why the impact of climate change on the 
government's balance sheets cannot be ignored."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/13/labour-vows-to-factor-climate-change-risk-into-economic-forecasts


*From the Everglades to Kilimanjaro, climate change is destroying world 
wonders 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/13/from-the-everglades-to-kilimanjaro-climate-change-is-destroying-world-wonders>*
A newreport on Monday from the International Union for Conservation of 
Nature <http://www.worldheritageoutlook.iucn.org/>(IUCN) reveals that 
the number of natural world heritage sites being damaged and at risk 
from global warming has almost doubled to 62 in the past three years.
Those at high risk include iconic places from the Galapagos Islands to 
the central Amazon and less well known but equally vibrant and unique 
sites such as the karst caves of Hungary and Slovakia and themonarch 
butterfly reserves 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/29/monarch-butterfly-numbers-drop-to-lowest-level-since-records-started>in 
Mexico.
Coral reefs are particularly badly affected by rising ocean 
temperatures, from the Seychelles to Belize, where the northern 
hemisphere's biggest reef is situated. Global heating is also causing 
mountain glaciers to rapidly shrink, fromKilimanjaro 
in<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/13/will-gadd-we-were-climbing-ice-that-isnt-going-there-next-week-climate-change>Tanzania 
to the Rocky Mountains in Canada and the Swiss Alps Jungfrau-Aletsch – 
home to the largest Alpine glacier.
Other ecosystems being damaged are wetlands, such asthe Everglades 
<https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/22/florida-everglades-obama-climate-change>, 
where sea level is rising as the ocean warms and salt water is 
intruding. In the Sundarbans mangrove forest on the delta of the Ganges, 
Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers on the Bay of Bengal, twoislands have 
already been submerged 
<https://www.theguardian.com/world/cif-green/2010/mar/24/india-bangladesh-sea-levels>and 
a dozen more are threatened. Fiercer storms are also increasing the risk 
of devastation.
Rising numbers of wildfires aredamaging the beautiful Fynbos 
flowerscapes 
<https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/life/2017-06-06-indigenous-fynbos-in-battle-to-survive-climate-change/>in 
the Cape region of South Africa and the Monarch butterfly site in 
Mexico. Elsewhere, warming is melting the permafrost in the newly 
declared Qinghai Hoh Xil heritage site, which is at 4,500m altitude in 
the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.
Australia is especially exposed as it has 10 natural heritage sites 
where climate change damage is rated as high or very high risk, from its 
Gondwana rainforests to Shark Bay in western Australia and islands such 
as Fraser and Macquarie.
"If we cannot secure the highest quality protection for the world's most 
precious natural areas, what will this say about our ability to fulfil 
our collective commitments towards the planet, including the Paris 
agreement?"
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/13/from-the-everglades-to-kilimanjaro-climate-change-is-destroying-world-wonders
*(interactive Map) The first global assessment of natural World Heritage 
<http://www.worldheritageoutlook.iucn.org/>*
http://www.worldheritageoutlook.iucn.org/
*(report) Number of natural World Heritage sites affected by climate 
change nearly doubles in three years – IUCN 
<http://www.worldheritageoutlook.iucn.org/more/news/number-natural-world-heritage-sites-affected-climate-change-nearly-doubles-three-years>*
http://www.worldheritageoutlook.iucn.org/more/news/number-natural-world-heritage-sites-affected-climate-change-nearly-doubles-three-years


*(video) Professor Kevin Anderson & Dr Hugh Hunt discuss responses to 
climate change at #COP23 <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jg2xI2isDy8>*
Dr Hugh Hunt is a Reader in Engineering Dynamics at the University of 
Cambridge and a cofounder of the Cambridge Climate Lecture Series. 
Professor Kevin Anderson is Deputy Director of the Tyndal Centre for 
Climate Change and a visiting Professor at the University of Uppsala in 
Sweden. Kevin is an outspoken voice on how the Paris Agreement should be 
implenented to avert a climate catastrophe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jg2xI2isDy8 27 mins.


*Why Is It So Hard to Fix the National Flood Insurance Program? 
<https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/why-it-so-hard-fix-national-flood-insurance-program>*
A tangle of politics and problems may force yet another delay in 
long-sought updates to the broke, beleaguered U.S. National Flood 
Insurance Program (NFIP). Congress has the unenviable task of putting 
NFIP back in the black without raising rates too quickly on folks who 
can't afford to leave vulnerable coastal homes. And the weather isn't 
helping.
The NFIP was due for reauthorization in September, after several years 
of challenge in the wake of the enormously costly Hurricane/Superstorm 
Sandy in 2012. Then came Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria this year - 
which complicated matters further by adding another $10-plus billion to 
the program's $25-billion debt.
Congress passed a temporary extension of the NFIP that runs out in early 
December. There's now a good chance that another extension will be 
needed, perhaps into 2018. The 21st Century Flood Reform Act, a House 
bill that appeared this week to be nearing a vote, instead found itself 
bottled up in committee. Several other draft bills in the House and 
Senate this year have failed to gain traction.
Increased development can itself boost flood risk, as rainfall flows 
readily off pavement and into swollen waterways instead of being 
absorbed by the landscape. Then there's the impact of intensified 
heavy-rain events and rising sea levels, both of which are 
research-confirmed products of a climate being warmed by human-produced 
greenhouse gases. The 8 inches of Sandy-related storm surge attributed 
to rising sea levels since 1900 in the New York area may have been 
responsible for as much as 24% of Sandy's property damage in New York 
City ($2 billion of $8 billion), according to a study from Climate 
Central and the University of North Carolina.
Most of the biggest hits to NFIP have come from hurricanes and 
mid-latitude winter storms. These can produce both surge-related 
inundation on the coast and rainfall-related flooding well inland. Still 
other events, such as the Midwest's Great Flood of 1993, have racked up 
hundreds of millions in NFIP payouts many hundreds of miles from the coast.
As noted by Yale360, two-thirds of the $52 billion paid out by NFIP from 
1978 through 2016 (unadjusted for inflation) was used to compensate 
victims of just six events, all in the 21st century:
Hurricane Katrina, August 2005:  $16.3 billion
Superstorm Sandy, October 2012:  $8.6 billion
Hurricane Ike, September 2008:  $2.7 billion
"No-name" Louisiana floods, August 2016:   $2.4 billion
Hurricane Ivan, September 2004:  $1.6 billion
Hurricane Irene, August 2011:  $1.3 billion
*What are the possible fixes?*
*A gradual ramp-up in rates for higher-risk areas. *The NFIP was last 
renewed through the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012, 
passed in late 2011 when NFIP was more than $17 billion in debt. Crafted 
with bipartisan sponsorship, Biggert-Waters mandated that NFIP's 
premiums should be in line with the actual risk and potential losses at 
each location. As a result, many premiums that had been held 
artificially low for years suddenly jumped by as much as a factor of 10.
*Mandatory disclosure of flood risk.* Amazingly, a number of states have 
no requirement that a homeowner inform a potential buyer that a home has 
suffered flood losses. Some states and cities do have such requirements, 
including Houston, Miami-Dade County, California, and Delaware. However, 
"a patchwork of inconsistent state and local policies is insufficient," 
said Laura Lightbody, who coordinates the Flood-Prepared Communities 
program for the Pew Charitable Trusts. "A single, national standard 
requiring sellers to disclose a property's flood history makes sense."
*A greater role for private insurers. *Free-market-oriented legislators 
would like to see more emphasis on the private sector in addressing 
NFIP's woes. The House bill would establish a federal clearinghouse by 
2021 that would steer customers toward private insurance options in 
high-risk areas. For properties where no private coverage is available, 
NFIP would serve as the insurer of last resort. One risk with such an 
arrangement is that it could make it possible for private insurers to 
skim off the lower-risk policies, leaving NFIP with the tab for 
higher-risk properties.
*New assistance for low-income policyholders.* The House bill would 
establish a Flood Insurance Affordability Program, allowing and 
encouraging states to help residents that are in financial need obtain 
NFIP insurance. It's not clear how states would pay for such programs, 
though.
*(Video) Nation's Flood Insurance Program is Broken 
<https://vimeo.com/242230197>*
Legislators are slated to vote on a bill to reform the National Flood 
Insurance Program. Is there any hope it can survive?
https://vimeo.com/242230197
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/why-it-so-hard-fix-national-flood-insurance-program


*(video) Sea Level Rise in 45 Seconds   :45 <https://youtu.be/Z92GTxn3Oqs>*
Stanford University senior research scientist, Katharine Mach, discusses 
the rates that the world's oceans are rising and what we can expect in 
the near future.
https://youtu.be/Z92GTxn3Oqs

*Fossil fuel burning set to hit record high in 2017, scientists warn 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/13/fossil-fuel-burning-set-to-hit-record-high-in-2017-scientists-warn>*
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/13/fossil-fuel-burning-set-to-hit-record-high-in-2017-scientists-warn


*Climate change blamed for Arabian Sea's unexpected hurricanes 
<https://www.newscientist.com/article/climate-change-blamed-arabian-seas-unexpected-hurricanes/>*
By Aylin Woodward
In the last four years the Arabian Sea has experienced unprecedented 
storms, and a new study reveals that climate change has made such events 
more likely to strike.
The Arabian Sea sits between Yemen, Oman and India. Cyclones are rare 
there – yet in 2014, cyclone Nilofar caused flash-floods in north-east 
Oman, killing four people. A year later, two cyclones hit back-to-back 
for the first time. Chapala and Megh both made landfall in Yemen as 
"extremely severe cyclonic storms" – with winds as strong as hurricanes 
– killing 26 people and displacing tens of thousands.
These events puzzled Hiroyuki Murakami at Princeton University in New 
Jersey. He says storms this severe typically occur in spring, months 
before the monsoons. Yet the three deadly cyclones all hit in October 
and November, late in the monsoon season.
Wondering if climate change might be changing cyclone behavior, Murakami 
and his colleagues used a sophisticated climate model to compare 
conditions in 2015 to conditions in 1860, when humanity's carbon 
footprint was much smaller. They found that, in 2015, 64 per cent of the 
increased hurricane risk in the Arabian Sea was down to climate change.
"We're seeing that human activity affects not only climate, but shorter 
events like rainfall and cyclones," says Murakami.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/climate-change-blamed-arabian-seas-unexpected-hurricanes/


*Study of impact of climate change on temperatures suggests more deaths 
unless action taken 
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171113195019.htm>*
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
The largest study to date of the potential temperature-related health 
impacts of climate change has shown that as global temperatures rise, 
the surge in death rates during hot weather outweighs any decrease in 
deaths in cold weather, with many regions facing sharp net increases in 
mortality rates.
Published in The Lancet Planetary Health, the study compared heat- and 
cold-related mortality across 451 locations around the world, and showed 
that warmer regions of the planet will be particularly affected. For 
instance, if no action is taken by 2090-99 a net increase in deaths of 
+12.7% is projected in South-East Asia, and mortality rates would also 
rise in Southern Europe (+6·4%) and South America (+4·6%). Meanwhile, 
cooler regions such as Northern Europe could experience either no change 
or a marginal decrease in deaths.
Encouragingly, the research, led by the London School of Hygiene & 
Tropical Medicine, also showed these deaths could largely be avoided 
under scenarios that include mitigation strategies to reduce greenhouse 
gas emissions and further warming of the planet.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171113195019.htm


*Climate Change Animations 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/news/new-animations/>*
Climate Communication has produced ten narrated animations that 
illustrate the science of climate change. A short video introducing the 
animations can be viewedhere 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/climate/introduction/>.
The  animations can be found in the tabs labeled "Our Climate is 
Changing", "How it Will Affect Us", and "What We Can Do", in any section 
marked with a play-button icon.
The full list of animations is below:
"1000 Years of Carbon Emissions" 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/climate/the-problem-1000-years-video/>
"800,000 Years of CO2 Levels" 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/climate/the-problem-800k-years-video/>
"Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations" 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/climate/heat-trapping-gases-video/>
"Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate" 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/climate/human-induced-warming-video/>
"Key Warming and Cooling Influences" 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/climate/human-influences-video/>
"Surface Temperature and Sun's Energy" 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/climate/natural-factors-video/>
"A Range of Possible Futures" 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/climate/future-climate-change-video/>
"Sea Level Rise" 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/affects/sea-level-rise-video/>
"Effect of Delay" 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/change/how-much-effect-of-delay-video/>
"Stabilizing Climate Affordably" 
<https://www.climatecommunication.org/change/how-much-stabilizing-video/>
https://www.climatecommunication.org/news/new-animations/


*(video) Climate change warning from scientists 
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=80&v=Jn9mYhFwTqw>
*CBC News   Nov 13, 2017*
*https://youtu.be/Jn9mYhFwTqw


*This Day in Climate History November 15, 1999 
<http://www.resilience.org/stories/2004-06-08/full-text-dick-cheneys-speech-institute-petroleum-autumn-lunch-1999> 
-  from D.R. Tucker*
November 15, 1999: Speaking at the London Institute of Petroleum, former 
Defense Secretary Dick Cheney declares:
"From the standpoint of the oil industry obviously and I'll talk a 
little later on about gas, but obviously for over a hundred years we as 
an industry have had to deal with the pesky problem that once you find 
oil and pump it out of the ground you've got to turn around and find 
more or go out of business. Producing oil is obviously a self-depleting 
activity. Every year you’ve got to find and develop reserves equal to 
your output just to stand still, just to stay even. This is true for 
companies as well in the broader economic sense as it is for the world. 
A new merged company like Exxon-Mobil will have to secure over a billion 
and a half barrels of new oil equivalent reserves every year just to 
replace existing production. It's like making one hundred per cent 
interest discovery in another major field of some five hundred million 
barrels equivalent every four months or finding two Hibernias a year.
"For the world as a whole, oil companies are expected to keep finding 
and developing enough oil to offset our seventy one million plus barrel 
a day of oil depletion, but also to meet new demand. By some estimates 
there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil 
demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three per cent 
natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 
we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. 
So where is the oil going to come from?
"Governments and the national oil companies are obviously controlling 
about ninety per cent of the assets. Oil remains fundamentally a 
government business. While many regions of the world offer great oil 
opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world's oil and 
the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies, even though 
companies are anxious for greater access there, progress continues to be 
slow."
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2004-06-08/full-text-dick-cheneys-speech-institute-petroleum-autumn-lunch-1999
/
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