[TheClimate.Vote] October 7, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News

[Richard Pauli]

/October 7, 2017/

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE (animated modeled graph) 
<https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/>
5 October 2017
*Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming? 
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming>*
"While some models projected less warming than we've experienced and 
some projected more, all showed surface temperature increases between 
1970 and 2016 that were not too far off from what actually occurred, 
particularly when differences in assumed future emissions are taken into 
account."
Carbon Brief has collected prominent climate model projections since 
1973 to see how well they project both past and future global 
temperatures, as shown in the animation below. (Click the play button to 
start.) <https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/> 
https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/
Climate models can be evaluated both on their ability to hindcast past 
temperatures and forecast future ones.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming
https://www.instagram.com/p/BZ38rf7F3al/


Pew Research Center U.S. Politics & Policy
THE PARTISAN DIVIDE ON POLITICAL VALUES GROWS EVEN WIDER
*7. Global warming and environmental regulation, personal 
environmentalism 
<http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/05/7-global-warming-and-environmental-regulation-personal-environmentalism/>*
The view that it's important to take action on the environment even if 
it costs time or money is particularly widely held among those with 
family incomes of $150,000 or more (74%), the highest income bracket 
measured in the survey.
http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/05/7-global-warming-and-environmental-regulation-personal-environmentalism/

*
Greenland More Exposed to Melt from Beneath 
<https://climatecrocks.com/2017/10/06/greenland-more-exposed-to-melt-from-beneath/>
*The new research finds that "between 30 and 100% more glaciers are 
potentially exposed to [warm Atlantic water] than suggested by previous 
mapping, which represents 55% of the ice sheet's total drainage area." 
In other words, more than half of Greenland's ice lies in or flows 
through areas that could be influenced by warming seas.
"...we find these fjords to be much deeper than represented in previous 
maps," said Eric Rignot, a NASA and UCI scientist who has been working 
on mapping Greenland for a decade and is a co-author on the work. 
"They're deeper because they've been carved by glacial cycles, multiple 
times."
...the island has several vulnerable points where a submerged passageway 
penetrates into the center of the ice sheet, where the bedrock also lies 
below sea level.
https://climatecrocks.com/2017/10/06/greenland-more-exposed-to-melt-from-beneath/
*Delta progradation in Greenland driven by increasing glacial mass loss 
<https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v550/n7674/full/nature23873.html>
*Climate changes are pronounced in Arctic regions and increase the 
vulnerability of the Arctic coastal zone1. For example, increases in 
melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and reductions in sea ice and 
permafrost distribution are likely to alter coastal morphodynamics. The 
deltas of Greenland are largely unaffected by human activity, but 
increased freshwater runoff and sediment fluxes may increase the size of 
the deltas, whereas increased wave activity in ice-free periods could 
reduce their size, with the net impact being unclear until now. Here we 
show that southwestern Greenland deltas were largely stable from the 
1940s to 1980s, but prograded (that is, sediment deposition extended the 
delta into the sea) in a warming Arctic from the 1980s to 2010s. Our 
results are based on the areal changes of 121 deltas since the 1940s, 
assessed using newly discovered aerial photographs and remotely sensed 
imagery. We find that delta progradation was driven by high freshwater 
runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet coinciding with periods of open 
water. Progradation was controlled by the local initial environmental 
conditions (that is, accumulated air temperatures above 0 °C per year, 
freshwater runoff and sea ice in the 1980s) rather than by local changes 
in these conditions from the 1980s to 2010s at each delta. This is in 
contrast to a dominantly eroding trend of Arctic sedimentary coasts 
along the coastal plains of Alaska2, Siberia3 and western Canada4, and 
to the spatially variable patterns of erosion and accretion along the 
large deltas of the main rivers in the Arctic5, 6, 7. Our results 
improve the understanding of Arctic coastal evolution in a changing 
climate, and reveal the impacts on coastal areas of increasing ice mass 
loss and the associated freshwater runoff and lengthening of open-water 
periods.*
*https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v550/n7674/full/nature23873.html*


(MIT video lecture) Kerry Emanuel: 2017 Hurricanes a taste of Future 
<http://news.mit.edu/2017/kerry-emanuel-hurricanes-are-taste-future-0921>*
Climate scientist Kerry Emanuel describes physics behind expected 
increase in storm strength due to climate change.
In a detailed talk about the history and the underlying physics of 
hurricanes and tropical cyclones, MIT Professor Kerry Emanuel yesterday 
explained why climate change will cause such storms to become much 
stronger and reach peak intensity further north, heightening their 
potential impacts on human lives in coming years.
"Climate change, if unimpeded, will greatly increase the probability of 
extreme events," such as the three record-breaking hurricanes of recent 
weeks, he said.
Video via Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences MIT 
https://www.youtube.com/user/EAPSweb/videos
Speaker: Kerry A. Emanuel, Cecil & Ida Green Professor of Atmospheric 
Science, Co-Director of the Lorenz Center
Natural disasters are the result of the interaction of a natural 
phenomenon with human beings and their built environments. Globally and 
in the U.S., large increases in coastal populations are causing 
corresponding increases in hurricane damage and these are now being 
compounded by rising sea levels and changing storm characteristics owing 
to anthropogenic climate change. In this talk, I will describe 
projections of changing hurricane activity over the rest of this century 
and what such projections tell us about how the probabilities of 
hurricanes like Harvey and Irma have already changed and are likely to 
continue to do so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWP-Sc8DYh4
For the near term, Emanuel said that U.S. rainfall events as intense as 
that produced by hurricane Harvey, which had about a 1 percent annual 
likelihood in the 1990s, has already increased in likelihood to about 6 
percent annually, and by 2090 could be about 18 percent.
http://news.mit.edu/2017/kerry-emanuel-hurricanes-are-taste-future-0921


*Soil holds potential to slow global warming, Stanford researchers find 
<http://news.stanford.edu/2017/10/05/soil-holds-potential-slow-global-warming/>*
The land under our feet and the plant matter it contains could offset a 
significant amount of carbon emissions if managed properly. More 
research is needed to unlock soil's potential to mitigate global 
warming, improve crop yields and increase resilience to extreme weather.
Earth system science professorRob Jackson 
<https://profiles.stanford.edu/jackson>, lead author of the/Annual 
Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics/article 
<http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054234>and 
co-author of the/Global Change Biology/paper 
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13896/full>. "But it is 
a no-risk climate solution with big co-benefits. Fostering soil health 
protects food security and builds resilience to droughts, floods and 
urbanization."
http://news.stanford.edu/2017/10/05/soil-holds-potential-slow-global-warming/

*Climate Change: Soil Could Speed Up Global Warming Way More Than We 
Thought 
<http://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-soil-could-speed-global-warming-way-more-we-thought-678869>*
Carbon dioxide in the air is causing the planet to warm—but the higher 
temperatures may cause still more carbon dioxide to end up in the 
atmosphere. And a new study published today in the journal Science 
suggests the impact could be larger and more complicated than scientists 
had previously expected, not to mention difficult to counter.
"This self-reinforcing feedback is potentially a global phenomenon with 
soils, and once it starts it may be very difficult to turn off," lead 
author Jerry Melillo, an ecologist at the the Marine Biological 
Laboratory, told Newsweek. "It's that part of the problem that I think 
is sobering.
http://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-soil-could-speed-global-warming-way-more-we-thought-678869
-
One of the oldest climate change experiments has led to a troubling 
conclusion 
<https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/10/05/one-of-the-oldest-climate-change-experiments-has-led-to-a-troubling-conclusion/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYDCoTMTcwOTcwNTAyMjc2NTI0NDA2NzIaYmJhYjdjZDMxNGYyYTdjYTpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNHesyf0cRsyHGVkGdrCqLiZvDFQ0Q> 

Washington Post
The hypothesis is that *warmer* temperatures would lead microorganisms 
in ... Canadell also questioned the 190 petagram figure for possible 
*global* ...
Carbon emissions from *warming* soils could trigger disastrous feedback 
loop 
<https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/05/carbon-emissions-warming-soils-higher-than-estimated-signalling-tipping-points&ct=ga&cd=CAEYBioTMTcwOTcwNTAyMjc2NTI0NDA2NzIaYmJhYjdjZDMxNGYyYTdjYTpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNHPBrim1nGCX0oxjPcxK1DWCD2KMA> 
- The Guardian
Soil microbes' contribution to the carbon cycle in a *warming* world 
<https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-10/uoma-smc100417.php&ct=ga&cd=CAEYBioTMTcwOTcwNTAyMjc2NTI0NDA2NzIaYmJhYjdjZDMxNGYyYTdjYTpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNEW1NncvsMI_tG_ojL2XolaiiSYbA> 
- EurekAlert (press release)
-
Bloomberg
*There's a Climate Bomb Under Your Feet 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/there-s-a-climate-change-bomb-under-your-feet>*
Soil locks away carbon just as the oceans do. But that lock is getting 
picked as the atmosphere warms and development accelerates.
Warming soil may set off a chain reaction of carbon emissions that 
"could be very difficult, if not impossible, to halt"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-06/there-s-a-climate-change-bomb-under-your-feet


*Microbes dictate regime shifts causing anoxia in lakes and seas* 
<https://phys.org/news/2017-10-microbes-dictate-regime-shifts-anoxia.html>
Phys.Org
Gradual environmental changes due to eutrophication and global warming 
can cause a rapid depletion of oxygen levels in lakes and coastal waters.
One type of regime shift may occur in lakes and coastal waters when a 
rapid depletion of the dissolved oxygen concentration leads to a lack of 
oxygen, which is detrimental to most aquatic organisms. Although this 
phenomenon is well known, the underlying mechanisms causing the 
transition from oxic to anoxic conditions are not fully understood.
They discovered that lakes can be in two alternative stable states: one 
in which the lake is rich in oxygen, and another in which it lacks 
oxygen. Transitions from the oxic to the anoxic state occur in the form 
of a regime shift. "When the oxygen influx is gradually reduced, at 
first oxygen-producing cyanobacteria and algae still persist and the 
lake remains in the oxic state," explains first author Tim Bush. "Below 
a critical threshold, however, sulfate-reducing bacteria and 
photosynthetic sulfur bacteria take over. These cause an increase in 
sulfide concentrations, which then kills the cyanobacteria and rapidly 
flips the lake from an oxic to an anoxic state."
More information: Timothy Bush et al. Oxic-anoxic regime shifts mediated 
by feedbacks between biogeochemical processes and microbial community 
dynamics, Nature Communications (2017). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00912-x
https://phys.org/news/2017-10-microbes-dictate-regime-shifts-anoxia.html
https://phys.org/news/2017-10-microbes-dictate-regime-shifts-anoxia.html


*November 18, 2014 Leaked documents show TransCanada planning "dirty 
tricks" campaign to support Energy East pipeline 
<http://m.greenpeace.org/canada/en/high/recent/Leaked-documents-show-TransCanada-planning-dirty-tricks-campaign-to-support-Energy-East-pipeline/>*
  ...Greenpeace Canada released leaked documents that it says shows that 
TransCanada is using deceitful tactics to attack environmental 
advocates. Greenpeace said the documents involve secret public relations 
and a "grassroots advocacy" strategy by TransCanada to put pressure on 
politicians and critics of their Energy East pipeline proposal – tactics 
similar to those employed by the oil industry in the U.S. to attack 
environmental advocates.
http://m.greenpeace.org/canada/en/high/recent/Leaked-documents-show-TransCanada-planning-dirty-tricks-campaign-to-support-Energy-East-pipeline/


*This Day in Climate History October 7, 2003   - from D.R. Tucker*
October 7, 2003: Arnold Schwarzenegger succeeds Gray Davis as the
governor of California after a highly controversial "recall election."
Schwarzenegger--who had been demonized by talk radio host Rush
Limbaugh in the weeks prior to the election as not being a "real"
conservative--would become one of the very few prominent elected
Republican officials urging action on climate change.
http://www.c-span.org/video/?178547-2/california-recall-acceptance-consession

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