[TheClimate.Vote] September 4, 2017 - Daily Global Warming News
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Sep 4 09:12:32 EDT 2017
/September 4, 2017
/ *Heat, Smoke, and Fire Assault Western States: All-Time Record Heat in
California
<https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/heat-smoke-and-fire-assault-western-states-all-time-record-heat-california>*
Bob Henson//September 3, 2017
The steamy, fiery summer of 2017 hit a new crescendo this weekend across
the U.S. West, which is getting its hottest Labor Day weekend on record
in many locations-and in some spots, the hottest weather ever observed.
Overall, *"this is the greatest statewide heat wave ever recorded in
California,"* proclaimed WU weather historian Christopher Burt on
Saturday night. Burt based his conclusion not only on the heat's
intensity but on its widespread nature well beyond California's usual
scorching locations. Even an escape to the cool Pacific shore was pretty
much futile, as easterly downslope winds funneled scorching air from the
interior into coastal sections that are normally mild and sometimes
chilly even in midsummer. Readings also soared above 110 degrees F
across California's Central Valley, although such heat is not quite so
unusual for late summer in that area.
California's Bay Area has been the focal point of the weekend's most
extraordinary heat. Temperatures soared to *106 degrees F in downtown
San Francisco* on Friday and 102 degrees F on Saturday. Friday's reading
was the hottest ever measured in downtown SF
<https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/903754192430518273>, where
temperatures have been observed since 1874. Friday's 106 degrees F
handily topped the previous record of 103 degrees F from June 14, 2000,
and Saturday was only the second high of 102 degrees F in downtown
history, matching Oct. 5, 1987. "To put this in perspective, the average
high temperature for the city these two days is just 71 degrees F," said
Chris Burt, who lives in the East Bay region. "Friday night's
temperatures failed to fall below 85 degrees F at several hill locations
near me (I dropped to 81 degrees )." He added: "It is so hot in our home
I can hardly think. No air conditioning, of course." Heat-related
illnesses overwhelmed San Francisco hospitals on Friday, according to
the Bay Area NWS office
<https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDMTR&e=201709020423>.
It would not be shocking to see multiple Bay Area fatalities during this
heat wave, given the multi-day intensity of the heat and the Bay Area's
lack of air
conditioning...https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/heat-smoke-and-fire-assault-western-states-all-time-record-heat-california
*National Weather Service Raw Text Product
<https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDMTR&e=201709020423>*
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDMTR&e=201709020423
*British Columbia extends wildfire emergency for fourth time
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-wildfire/british-columbia-extends-wildfire-emergency-for-fourth-time-idUSKCN1BC5WW>*
Sep 1, 2017 (Reuters) -
The Canadian province of British Columbia has extended a state of
emergency for a fourth time until Sept. 15 due to wildfires raging
across the region, the provincial government said on Friday.
Since early summer, firefighters and emergency services have been
battling hundreds of blazes across British Columbia that have forced as
many as 45,000 people from their homes and burned more than 894,000
hectares (2.2 million acres).
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-wildfire/british-columbia-extends-wildfire-emergency-for-fourth-time-idUSKCN1BC5WW
One of the fires is the largest in recorded British Columbia history,
and the season is the worst on record-ever.
As of the weekend, 4,273 square miles have burned - roughly the same
area as the states of Delaware and Rhode Island combined.
There's a good chart in this Macleans article:
<http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/b-c-s-record-setting-wildfires-in-one-chart/>http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/b-c-s-record-setting-wildfires-in-one-chart/
*
'Your eyes start itching': pollution soars in Houston after chemical
industry leaks
<https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/02/houston-hurricane-harvey-pollution-petrochemical-plants>*
Communities face surging toxic fumes and possible water contamination,
as refineries and plants report more than 2,700 tons of extra pollution
Hurricane Harvey has resulted in Houston's petrochemical industry
leaking thousands of tons of pollutants, with communities living near
plants damaged by the storm exposed to soaring levels of toxic fumes and
potential water contamination.
Refineries and chemical plants have reported more than 2,700 tons, or
5.4m pounds, of extra air pollution due to direct damage from the
hurricane as well as the preventive shutting down of facilities, which
causes a spike in released toxins
On Friday, ozone levels in south-west Houston were nearly three times
higher than the national standard, triggering one of Texas's worst
recent smogs. Scientists warned that people outside cleaning up in the
aftermath of Harvey were vulnerable to the poor air, particularly the
elderly, children and those with asthma.
According to an analysis by the Center for Biological Diversity, a
cocktail of nearly 1m pounds of particularly harmful substances such as
benzene, hexane, sulfur dioxide, butadiene and xylene have been emitted
by more than 60 petroleum industry plants operated by ExxonMobil, Shell,
Chevron and other businesses since the hurricane.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/02/houston-hurricane-harvey-pollution-petrochemical-plants
*
**How strong could Irma get?*
<https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-watches-leeward-islands-irma-chugs-west>
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-watches-leeward-islands-irma-chugs-west
Competing factors have kept Irma's strength fairly steady over the last
couple of days, with low wind shear of 5-10 knots (supportive of
strengthening) but SSTs only marginally warm (about 27-28 degrees C or
81-82 degrees F) and mid-level relative humidities on the dry side
(about 50-55%). As noted above, SSTs along Irma's path will be rising to
around 29 degrees C over the next couple of days, and mid-level RH
should be increasing to around 60-65%. Wind shear will also be
increasing, to around 10-15 knots, but Irma should be able to fight off
the effects of this amount of shear given the other factors in its favor.
Several computer models have been confronting meteorologists with some
eye-opening intensity forecasts for Hurricane Irma, especially for the
period around next weekend, when Irma is currently predicted to be
arcing northwest from the Eastern Bahamas. We cannot rule out the chance
that Irma will reach Category 5 strength, but we can safely discount
some of the most extreme model-generated intensities. The GFS global
model and the new HMON regional hurricane model have consistently been
deepening Irma to pressures below 900 millibars (mb). However, neither
of these models fully incorporates the interaction between ocean and
atmosphere that serves as a check on a hurricane's peak strength. A
better guide to how strong Irma might get is the European global model
and the HWRF regional hurricane model, which extends out to 126 hours
(just over five days). The HWRF, in particular, has proven to be our
most reliable model-based intensity guidance in recent years. The 0Z and
12Z Sunday operational runs of the European model deepen Irma to the
920-930 mb range, and the 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z runs of the HWRF show similar
intensities. Even these less-extreme numbers are nothing to sneeze at:
they suggest Irma will be a very formidable hurricane.
For historical context, the lowest hurricane-related pressure ever
measured at the surface north of the Caribbean and east of Florida is
921 mb in the Bahamas Hurricane of 1932. Hurricane Hunter dropsondes
found a surface pressure of 919 mb within Hurricane Gloria (1985). Such
pressures can support a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, but the peak winds
depend on the size of the hurricane. As hurricanes move poleward, they
typically get bigger. In a larger hurricane, the pressure force from a
given central pressure will extend over a larger area, meaning that the
top sustained winds will probably be lower but that a larger area could
experience high winds and storm surge. This was the case with
Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy, which brought record-low surface pressures
and record-high surge across a large area despite winds of marginal
hurricane force at best.
*Long-range track outlook*
Beyond Friday, there is greater model divergence on what will happen
with Irma's track-no surprise, given that the typical error in track
forecasts goes up significantly in this time frame. Over the last day,
there has been some convergence of two of our best long-range track
models, the GFS and European models, toward a possible landfall in or
near the Carolinas around Monday. Both models are consistent in bringing
a strong upper-level trough across the United States and off the East
Coast by this weekend. The models also suggest that a small weakness
will be left behind, somewhere near the lower- to mid-Mississippi
Valley. If so, this could help bring Irma toward the United States.
However, the path of least resistance for Irma might instead be toward
the large departing trough and out to sea into the Northwest Atlantic.
These two scenarios have hugely different implications, but they depend
on fairly subtle differences in the atmosphere that may not become clear
for several more days to come.
...there remains a wide spread of possibilities in the GFS and Euro
ensemble runs (which are produced by carrying out multiple runs of the
same model, using small variations in the starting-point data to mimic
uncertainty in our observations). Moreover, the 12Z Sunday operational
run of the European model takes Irma out to sea before a U.S.
landfall-another sign that it is way too soon to predict Irma's track
beyond late this week with any confidence.
*Bottom line: * Irma is a growing threat to the Leeward Islands, the
Greater Antilles, and the Eastern Bahamas. Irma is expected to be
drawing closer to the East Coast as a powerful Category 4 hurricane this
weekend, but it is still too soon to predict the timing and location of
any potential landfall with confidence, and it is still possible Irma
will move out to sea.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-watches-leeward-islands-irma-chugs-west
*(Letter) What's causing the catastrophic flooding in Texas is not a
hoax, Mr. President
<http://www.latimes.com/opinion/readersreact/la-ol-le-climate-change-harvey-trump-20170902-story.html>*
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/readersreact/la-ol-le-climate-change-harvey-trump-20170902-story.html
*(opinion) The Trump administration wants to bail out failed contrarian
climate scientists
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/aug/31/the-trump-administration-wants-to-bail-out-failed-contrarian-climate-scientists>*
This is the way to settle political debates, not scientific ones.
John Abraham
A climate "red team" is just a polite way to describe bailing out
scientific losers.
Climate contrarians, like Trump's EPA administrator Scott Pruitt and
Energy Secretary Rick Perry, don't understand how scientific research
works. They are basically asking for a government handout to scientists
to do what scientists are should already be doing. They are also
requesting handouts for scientists who have been less successful in
research and publications – a move antithetical to the survival of the
fitness approach that has formed the scientific community for decades.
The helping handout would be through a proposed exercise called a "red
team/blue team" effort. It is a proposal that would reportedly find
groups of scientists on both "sides" of the climate issue (whatever that
means), and have them try to poke holes in each others' positions. I
will explain why this is a handout but first let's talk about the plan
and how it interferes with the scientific process...
Conservatives generally view handouts and bailouts as an anathema. When
they realize that what underlies the red team effort is really just a
bailout to failed ideas, they will not be supportive.
What I would suggest the so-called red team do is start competing in the
trade of our profession. Complete studies and publish papers which
support your hypothesis. Subject your ideas to criticisms, see if your
ideas survive scrutiny.
If your ideas are failures, don't go looking to Uncle Sam for a handout.
Try again, think deeper, work harder. That is what real scientists do.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/aug/31/the-trump-administration-wants-to-bail-out-failed-contrarian-climate-scientists
*Study Finds Exxon Misled the Public by Withholding Climate Knowledge
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/09/03/study-finds-exxon-misled-public-withholding-climate-knowledge>*
By David Suzuki September 2, 2017
https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/09/03/study-finds-exxon-misled-public-withholding-climate-knowledge
*
**Katharine Hayhoe, I Was an Exxon-Funded Climate Scientist
<https://theconversation.com/i-was-an-exxon-funded-climate-scientist-49855>*
...I have a unique perspective - because I was there.
From 1995 to 1997, Exxon provided partial financial support for my
master's thesis, which focused on methane chemistry and emissions. I
spent several weeks in 1996 as an intern at their Annandale research lab
in New Jersey and years working on the collaborative research that
resulted in three of the published studies referenced in Supran and
Oreskes' new analysis.
*Climate research at Exxon *
A scientist is a scientist no matter where we work, and my Exxon
colleagues were no exception. Thoughtful, cautious and in full agreement
with the scientific consensus on climate - these are characteristics any
scientist would be proud to own.
Did Exxon have an agenda for our research? Of course - it's not a
charity. Their research and development was targeted, and in my case, it
was targeted at something that would raise no red flags in climate
policy circles: quantifying the benefits of methane reduction.
Methane is a waste product released by coal mining and natural gas
leaks; wastewater treatment plants; farting and belching cows, sheep,
goats and anything else that chews its cud; decaying organic trash in
garbage dumps; giant termite mounds in Africa; and even, in vanishingly
small amounts, our own lactose-intolerant family members.
On a mass basis, methane absorbs about 35 times more of the Earth's heat
than carbon dioxide. Methane has a much shorter lifetime than carbon
dioxide gas, and we produce a lot less of it, so there's no escaping the
fact that carbon has to go. But if our concern is how fast the Earth is
warming, we can get a big bang for our buck by cutting methane emissions
as soon as possible, while continuing to wean ourselves off carbon-based
fuels long-term.
For the gas and oil industry, reducing methane emissions means saving
energy. So it's no surprise that, during my research, I didn't
experience any heavy-handed guidance or interference with my results. No
one asked to review my code or suggested ways to "adjust" my findings.
The only requirement was that a journal article with an Exxon co-author
pass an internal review before it could be submitted for peer review, a
policy similar to that of many federal agencies...
https://theconversation.com/i-was-an-exxon-funded-climate-scientist-49855
*Cod and haddock go north due to warming UK seas, as foreign fish arrive
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/02/fish-conservation-foreign-species-uk-waters-climate-change>*
Our seafood diet must adapt, say scientists, as climate change forces
some favourites to colder waters and threatens others
Britain must prepare itself for invasions of growing numbers of foreign
sea creatures attracted by our warming waters, a new report has warned.
Some newcomers could have devastating effects, others could be
beneficial, say the researchers.
Examples provided by the team include slipper limpets that could destroy
mussel and oyster beds. By contrast, new arrivals such as the American
razor clam and Pacific oyster could become the bases of profitable
industries for British fishermen.
"In a few decades the temperature of our seas is likely to be roughly
the same as those found in the waters around Portugal at the turn of the
last century – so we can expect to find the kind of marine life that
existed there in British seas in the near future," said marine biologist
Professor Stephen Simpson, of Exeter University. "Apart from cuttlefish
and sardines – which are already moving into our waters – we can expect
fish like red mullet and john dory to be more common. By contrast the
haddock is already disappearing from the southern North Sea, while
plaice and sole are also becoming less and less prevalent. Fortunately,
cod appears to be more resilient."
One invader highlighted in the report is the club tunicate – a
soft-bodied creature from Asia that Simpson described as looking like "a
floating plastic bag". It has reached UK waters and is very likely to
spread round our coast. Not only does it out-compete shellfish in
particular for food – causing great harm to mussel beds, for example –
but it releases toxins that can trigger respiratory attacks in humans.
Other hazards that could take advantage of our warming waters are
wireweed and the acorn barnacle. Both compete for food and space with
local species and foul harbours and ships.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/02/fish-conservation-foreign-species-uk-waters-climate-change
*(editorial cartoon) Atlanta Journal-Constitution:Mike Luckovich
<https://magazine.theweek.com/editions/com.dennis.theweek.issue.issue838/data/54332/index.html>*
I hereyby pardon Climate Change...
https://magazine.theweek.com/editions/com.dennis.theweek.issue.issue838/data/54332/index.html
*Mysterious, Brain-Like Blob Found in Lagoon
<http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/08/Bryozoan-blob-creature-video-spd/>*
Scientists are unsure if warming temperatures are causing the bizarre
invertebrates to spread.
By Sarah Gibbens PUBLISHED AUGUST 31, 2017
A gelatinous, mucus-like creature lurks in rivers and lakes-and it's
called a bryozoan. Recently, they were spotted-for the first known
time-in Stanley Park in Vancouver, British Columbia, when low water
levels made them more visible.
Celina Starnes from the Stanley Park Ecology Society recently examined
the specimen found in the area's "Lost Lagoon," a small body of water in
the southern part of the park. In video created by the Vancouver
Courier, Starnes shows the brownish green mass jiggling as it's pulled
from the water.
In a phone call with National Geographic, Starnes explains that the
creatures have a gelatinous, firm quality, "almost like Jell-o," she said.
Bryozoan clumps like these are actually hundreds of creatures living
together in a colony. A single organism, known as a zooid, is only a
fraction of a millimeter. Zooids are hermaphroditic but spread thanks to
statoblasts, a clump of cells found on the organism that can reproduce
asexually if broken off from the colony.
Fossil records date ancient marine bryozoans as far back as 470 million
years. The species found in Stanley Park is commonly called a
"magnificent" bryozoan, Pectinatella magnifica, and was previously only
known to exist in areas east of the Mississippi River.
WHERE DID THEY COME FROM?
Whether or not the creatures are an invasive species has been a subject
of debate among scientists. A 2012 report from the U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service theorized that climate change could be helping the
creatures spread. Zooids can only survive in waters warmer than roughly
60 degrees Fahrenheit, and the report states that warming temperatures
allow bryozoans to spread north.
The lumps filter feed on algae in nutrient-rich waters and an increase
in their numbers could upset the ecological balance of a freshwater
ecosystem. They've also been found to clog
pipes.http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/08/Bryozoan-blob-creature-video-spd/
*(video) Behold, the blob of Vancouver's Lost Lagoon
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdUXX8Te5pE>*
Vancouver Courier Published on Aug 24, 2017
"The Blob" is indescribable, indestructible and nothing can stop it-at
least in the movies. But in Vancouver's Lost Lagoon, where a blob-like
creature was recently uncovered, the best descriptions thus far from
Celina Starnes of the Stanley Park Ecology Society is that it's like a
deflated basketball or week-old Jell-O. It's gooey, yet firm, and also
kinda gross.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdUXX8Te5pE
*This Day in Climate History September 4, 2001
<http://web.archive.org/web/20020619223452/http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0904-01.htm>
- from D.R. Tucker*
September 4, 2001: In the Boston Globe, Theodore Roosevelt IV--the
great-grandson of President Theodore Roosevelt--declares:
"We Americans are heading into a carbon-constrained, ecologically
fragile future for which we are ill prepared. Under the present
leadership we are dragging our feet, willing to sacrifice vital
natural resources instead of making real investments in current
efficiency and future energy technologies. This is hardly a
conservative agenda.
"Moderate Republicans, and I am one, are distressed that an
administration that strenuously claims to be conservative is instead
intent on maintaining undisciplined and wasteful consumption. This is
unsustainable public policy, and I doubt that it will go far in
achieving victory in the midterm elections. Bad public policy and bad
politics are a lethal combination."
http://web.archive.org/web/20020619223452/http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0904-01.htm
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