[TheClimate.Vote] April 1, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sun Apr 1 10:13:47 EDT 2018
/April 1, 2018/
[no joke, but is ironic]
*'Extreme' Iceberg Seasons Threaten Oil Rigs and Shipping as the Arctic
Warms
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27032018/climate-change-arctic-sea-ice-data-icebergs-ocean-shipping-oil-gas-drilling-grand-banks-canada>*
As Arctic sea ice breaks up, it's starting to move southward faster,
creating new and unexpected hazards. More icebergs calving off Greenland
add to the threat.
BY BOB BERWYN, INSIDECLIMATE NEWS
"There were so many icebergs coming on to the rigs that they couldn't
keep up. They ... were using water cannons standing on rigs and boats to
push them away because they were coming on to the rigs so fast." -
International Ice Patrol Commander Gabrielle McGrath on how icebergs
have menaced oil rigs in the Atlantic Ocean.
That ice can pose serious risks to ships and offshore oil and gas rigs.
Last year, strong storms sent a swarm of icebergs surging into the oil
and gas drilling field at the Grand Banks off Newfoundland, marking the
fourth extreme iceberg season in a row
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgmP8U9tJ6w>, according toInternational
Ice Patrol <https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/?pageName=IIPHome> Commander
Gabrielle McGrath.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27032018/climate-change-arctic-sea-ice-data-icebergs-ocean-shipping-oil-gas-drilling-grand-banks-canada
[Oh, frozen poop]
*Where's the snow? Climate change in Minnesota creates septic tank
headaches
<http://www.startribune.com/where-s-the-snow-climate-change-in-minnesota-creates-septic-tank-headaches/478461373/>*
Unexpected consequence of climate change plagues the state.
By Josephine Marcotty Star Tribune MARCH 31, 2018
Frozen septic systems are emerging as an unexpected consequence of
climate change in Minnesota — one that is bedeviling homeowners across
the state and could soon cost taxpayers more for the repair and
maintenance of fragile rural roads.
The cause is a dramatic long-term decline in insulating snow early in
November and December. Combined with still-freezing conditions, that
drives the frost line deep underground — well below septic pipes and
drain fields.
As a result, thousands of the half-million Minnesotans whose homes,
cabins or businesses rely on underground septic tanks are facing a
costly solution: pump their tanks more often and use their showers,
washing machines, dishwashers and toilets less. And this year isn't the
worst in a recent history of freeze-ups, septic haulers say.
- - - - - -
Some parts of Minnesota have plenty of snow, and some winters bring a
lot that falls early and stays late. But according to Kenny Blumenfeld,
Minnesota's state climatologist, rising average winter temperatures have
led to a dramatic change in snow cover. The average annual snow depth in
Minnesota between Nov. 1 and March 31 has dropped by 20 to 30 percent,
comparing the past 18 years against the period 1970 to 1999. And the
total number of days without snow cover has increased even more — 30 to
50 percent, and even higher in some places.
http://www.startribune.com/where-s-the-snow-climate-change-in-minnesota-creates-septic-tank-headaches/478461373/
[PR double-speak]
*Shell Game: What Shell Gets Wrong in its New Climate Report
<http://priceofoil.org/2018/03/28/shell-game-oil-company-says-climate-future-is-fossil-fuelled/>*
Greg Muttitt, March 28, 2018
On Monday, Shell released a new report
<https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html>
describing how the world might achieve the Paris goals. The report
described a scenario called "Sky," painting a picture of a possible future.
It's a future full of fossil fuels: in 2050, it has oil, gas and coal
use at respectively 88%, 93%, and 62% of their current levels. Shell
describes this as a "rapid energy transition." Hardly.
See graph
http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2018/03/shell-fossil-fuels.jpg
How can such a future be aligned with the Paris goals? The answer is
that it's not.
The Paris goals are to keep warming "well below" 2 degrees C, and to
pursue efforts to keep warming to 1.5 degrees C. This reflects an
updated scientific understanding that 2 degrees C, the previous
goal, should itself be considered dangerous. Even at 2 degrees C,
the risk of runaway climate change becomes significant.
A UNFCCC review in the months leading up to the Paris summit stated
that 2 degrees C should not be seen as a safe target, but should "be
better seen as an upper limit, a defense line that needs to be
stringently defended, while less warming would be preferable."
Shell appears not to understand this. The "Sky" scenario aims for a
2-in-3 probability of keeping warming below 2 degrees C, but this is
only achieved if new technology is invented to suck carbon out of the
atmosphere, as well as a dramatic turnaround in technology for capturing
and burying carbon emissions.
In 2070, the Shell scenario has 8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
sucked out of the atmosphere, which (if the technology works) could
require a land area up to five times the size of India. Another 10
billion tonnes is captured when emitted. This combined 18 billion tonnes
is equivalent to about half of today's emissions.
Carbon-sucking technologies so far exist only in theoretical models.
Carbon-capturing technologies have been tested in pilot projects, most
of which have been unsuccessful, leading governments and companies who
previously advocated for the technologies now to cancel projects and
funding. In the words of Francesco Starace, the Enel CEO and chair of
trade association Eurelectric, "I think [carbon capture and storage] has
not been successful. It doesn't work, let's call it what it is – it is
simply too expensive, too cumbersome, the technology didn't fly."
So, Shell proposes gambling on the invention of new technologies, in
order to have a modest chance of avoiding the severe dangers at and
above 2 degrees C. That is not "stringent defense" of the 2 degrees C
limit. It is not "pursuing efforts" to keep warming to 1.5 degrees C. It
is not aligned with the Paris goals.
- - -- - -
A few years later, Shell dropped both the PR campaign and the
renewables, while the company continued to extract billions of barrels
of oil. Twenty years on, the climate crisis is now urgent; we can't
afford to fall again for the pretence that Shell is part of the
solution.This year marks the 20th anniversary of a Shell report entitled
'Profits or Principles: does there have to be a choice?' – claiming that
Shell would be at the heart of transforming the energy industry. Shell
built partnerships with some leading NGOs, invested heavily in a
communications campaign, and started a small but much-publicised
renewable energy division.
The lesson is simple: If you want to know how to fix climate change,
don't ask a company that wants to sell you more oil and gas.
http://priceofoil.org/2018/03/28/shell-game-oil-company-says-climate-future-is-fossil-fuelled/
[Shell's report]
*SKY SCENARIO
<https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html>*
The Sky Scenario illustrates a technically possible, but challenging
pathway for society to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Sky
builds on previous Shell scenarios publications and is our most
optimistic scenario in terms of climate outcomes.
A new energy system is emerging. The Paris Agreement has sent a signal
around the world: climate change is a serious issue that governments are
determined to address. By 2070 there is the potential for a very
different energy system to emerge.
The Sky Scenario outlines what we believe to be a technologically,
industrially, and economically possible route forward, consistent with
limiting the global average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees C
from pre-industrial levels. It reveals the potential for an energy
system to emerge that brings modern energy to all in the world, without
delivering a climate legacy that society cannot readily adapt to.
Sky shows a transformation to a lower-carbon energy system, with the
world achieving the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Consumers,
companies and governments will face tough choices and the paths towards
lower-carbon energy will vary by country and sector. Over the course of
50 years, it transforms the way society uses and produces energy.
- - - -
But while encouraging news, success towards the Paris Agreement aim is
not guaranteed. The Sky Scenario relies on a complex combination of
mutually reinforcing actions by society, markets and governments. It
recognises that the necessary changes will unfold at different paces in
different places, and must ultimately transform all sectors of economic
activity. The changes are economy-wide, sector-specific, and amount to
re-wiring the global economy in just 50 years....
more at:
https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html
[Shell note]
You can read the full story on the Shell website at
www.shell.com/skyscenario. <http://www.shell.com/skyscenario>
Note: Scenarios are not intended to be predictions of likely future
events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an
investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc securities.
Please read the full cautionary note in www.shell.com/skyscenario.
<http://www.shell.com/skyscenario>
http://www.shell.com/skyscenario
[MIT Study of Shell Sky scenario]
*Meeting the Goals of the Paris Agreement: Temperature Implications of
the Shell Sky Scenario <https://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/16995>*
Joint Program Report Series, March, 10 p.
Report 330 [Download]
<https://globalchange.mit.edu/sites/default/files/MITJPSPGC_Rpt330.pdf>
https://globalchange.mit.edu/sites/default/files/MITJPSPGC_Rpt330.pdf
*Abstract/Summary:*
The Paris Agreement makes long-term energy and climate projections
particularly important because it calls for a goal that likely
requires an energy system that is based on a radically different
fuel mix than currently in use. This presents a challenge for energy
companies as they try to anticipate the types of energy and fuels
that will be required to stay competitive while meeting
environmental requirements. A new scenario (called Sky) developed by
Shell International examines the challenge of moving to an energy
system with net-zero CO2 emissions and gradually eliminate emissions
from deforestation by midway through the second half of the century
(specifically by the year of 2070). Using the MIT Integrated Global
System Modeling (IGSM) framework, we simulate a 400-member ensemble,
reflecting uncertainty in Earth system response of global
temperature change associated with the Sky scenario by 2100. We find
that for the median climate parameters the global surface
temperature increase by 2100 is 1.75 degrees C above the
pre-industrial levels with an 85% probability of remaining below 2
degrees C. The geographic distribution of the temperature change
shows a stronger warming in Polar regions. If, in addition, there is
a significant effort directed toward global reforestation then, with
median climate parameters, temperature increase by 2100, is near 1.5
degrees C above pre-industrial levels.
https://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/16995
[bye, flutter by]
*Iconic swallowtail butterfly at risk from climate change
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180327194353.htm>*
March 27, 2018
University of East Anglia
Summary:
New research reveals that Norfolk's butterflies, bees, bugs, birds,
trees and mammals are at major risk from climate change as temperatures
rise. Researchers carried out the first in-depth audit of its kind for a
region in the UK to see how biodiversity might be impacted in Norfolk as
the world warms. The study finds that the region's Swallowtail
Butterfly, which can't be found anywhere else in the UK, is at risk --
along with three quarters of bumblebee, grasshopper and moth species.
- - - - - - -
The project reveals that at just 2 degrees C, 72 per cent of bumblebees
in Norfolk could be lost, along with 75 per cent of grasshoppers and
bush crickets, and 68 per cent of larger moths.
The new climate potentially becomes unsuitable for 15 species of birds
including Lapland Bunting and Pink-footed Goose. Meanwhile the Common
Shrew, Roe Deer and European Badger are among seven mammal species which
may be lost from Norfolk.
- - - - - -
As climate change reaches 3.2 degrees C, temperatures would be largely
or completely unsuitable for mammals including Grey Squirrels, Whiskered
Bats and Reeves' Muntjac and trees including Silver Birch, Horse
Chestnut, Scots Pine and Norway Spruce.
Additionally, 83 per cent of shield bugs, 84 per cent of moths, 78 per
cent of bumblebees, and 45 per cent of butterflies including the Small
Tortoiseshell could also be affected.
The findings come after UEA research revealed that up to half of all
plant and animal species in the world's most naturally rich areas could
face local extinction by the turn of the century due to climate change
if carbon emissions continue to rise unchecked.
- - - - - -
"The important thing to remember here is that global warming has already
reached 1 degree C above pre-industrial levels. We're currently on a
trajectory for 3.2 degrees C if international pledges to reduce CO2 are
genuine. If so, major changes need to be made to how we use and produce
our energy.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180327194353.htm
[science and media]
Northwest Climate Science Center Upcoming Webinars
*ACTIONABLE CLIMATE SCIENCE SKILLS-BUILDING WEBINAR SERIES
<https://www.nwclimatescience.org/upcoming-webinars>*
The Northwest Climate Science Center is excited to announce its new
Actionable Climate Science Skills-building Webinar Series! This webinar
series is designed to help those engaged in climate science research
better understand the range of approaches for developing actionable
science. Each webinar will explore ways to support effective
collaborations between scientific researchers and natural resource
managers. Our first webinar is next Tuesday, April 3rd at 11:00 AM (PT).
"DEVELOPING A SUCCESSFUL CO-PRODUCTION COLLABORATION BETWEEN SCIENTISTS
AND PRACTITIONERS
<https://washington.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_870Jwqj9TZWTzZB5MslKpg>"
https://www.nwclimatescience.org/upcoming-webinars
[200 yrs away]
*Global fisheries to be, on average, 20 percent less productive in 2300,
UCI study finds
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180308143129.htm>*
Global fisheries to be, on average, 20 percent less productive in 2300,
UCI study finds
Warming-induced plankton growth near Antarctica will impair marine food
chain
March 8, 2018
University of California - Irvine
Summary:
Scientists expect the world's fisheries to be, on average, 20 percent
less productive in the year 2300, with those in the North Atlantic down
nearly 60 percent and those in much of the western Pacific experiencing
declines of more than 50 percent.
- - - - -
He emphasized the importance of looking further into the future with
climate models, something that isn't often done because of the
computational resources such modeling requires. Months of computations
using thousands of central processing units were needed to simulate the
climate and oceans up to 2300. But stopping climate studies at the end
of our current century, as is common among scientists and policymakers,
is insufficient given the amount of time it takes for the ocean to
absorb and respond to heat being trapped by the Earth's atmosphere
today, Moore said.
"The climate is warming rapidly now, but in the ocean, most of that
added heat is still right at the surface. It takes centuries for that
heat to work its way into the deeper ocean, changing the circulation and
removing the sea ice, which is a big part of this process," he said.
"This is what's going to happen if we don't put the brakes on global
warming, and it's pretty catastrophic for the oceans," Moore stressed.
"There is still time to avoid most of this warming and get to a stable
climate by the end of this century, but in order to do that, we have to
aggressively reduce our fossil fuel use and emissions of greenhouse gas
pollutants."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180308143129.htm
- - - - -
[Classic fisheries study first done in 2009 ]
*Historical Photographs Expose Decline in Florida's Reef Fish, New
Scripps Study Finds
<http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/archive/newsrel/science/02-09FloridaKeysFishing.asp>*
Snapshots trace shrinking 'trophy fish' over a generation of sport fishing
Scripps Institution of Oceanography/University of California, San Diego
February 18, 2009
By Mario Aguilera
A unique study by a scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at
UC San Diego has provided fresh evidence of fishing's impact on marine
ecosystems. Scripps Oceanography graduate student researcher Loren
McClenachan accessed archival photographs spanning more than five
decades to analyze and calculate a drastic decline of so-called "trophy
fish" caught around coral reefs surrounding Key West, Florida.
In a paper published online ...and printed in an...issue of the journal
Conservation Biology, McClenachan describes a stark 88 percent decline
in the estimated weight of large predatory fish imaged in
black-and-white 1950s sport fishing photos compared to the relatively
diminutive catches photographed in modern pictures. In a companion paper
being published in the Endangered Species Research journal, McClenachan
employs similar methods to document the decline of the globally
endangered goliath grouper fish.
"These results provide evidence of major changes over the last half
century and a window into an earlier, less disturbed fish community…"
McClenachan said in the Conservation Biology paper.
McClenachan's studies are part of an emerging field called historical
marine ecology, in which scientists study photographs, archives, news
accounts and other records to help understand changes in the ocean
ecosystem over time and establish baselines for future ecosystem
restoration.
McClenachan believes that historical ecology can not only help describe
the structure of ecosystems that existed in the recent past, but can be
used to establish goals for restoration of large predators, both on land
and in the water.
While conducting research for her doctoral thesis on coral reef
ecosystems of the Florida Keys, McClenachan came across what she
describes as a gold mine of photographic data at the Monroe County
Library in Key West. Hundreds of archived photographs, snapped by
professional photographer Charles Anderson, depict sport fishing
passengers posing next to a hanging board used to determine the largest
"trophy fish" catches of the day. All of the photographs document sport
fishing trips targeting coral reef fishes around the Florida Keys.
McClenachan supplemented the study with her own photographs and
observations on sport fishing trips in 2007.
In all, she measured and analyzed some 1,275 fish from photographs.
http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/archive/newsrel/science/02-09FloridaKeysFishing.asp
[Historical climate jokes]
*Climate-Themed April Fool's Day Hoaxes - The Museum of Hoaxes
<http://hoaxes.org/af_database/display/category/climate>*
hoaxes.org/af_database/display/category/climate
In other words, "today should be 2 April, not 1 April." More… The Sheep
Albedo Hypothesis. (2007) RealClimate.org detailed the work of Dr. Ewe
Noh-Watt of the New Zealand Institute of Veterinary Climatology, who had
discovered that global warming was caused not by a buildup of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere, but ...
http://hoaxes.org/af_database/display/category/climate
[April fools video from 2015]
*The Shocking Truth About Global Warming (APRIL FOOLS!)
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgrHMVdF0lM>*
NextGen America on Mar 31, 2015
For years, 97% of scientists assured us that climate change was real.
Today in the Hot Seat, we uncover the sordid lies behind their so-called
"scientific consensus."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgrHMVdF0lM
*This Day in Climate History - April 1, 2009 - from D.R. Tucker*
April 1, 2009: The New York Times reports:
"The debate on global warming and energy policy accelerated on
Tuesday as two senior House Democrats unveiled a far-reaching bill
to cap heat-trapping gases and quicken the country's move away from
dependence on coal and oil.
"But the bill leaves critical questions unanswered and has no
Republican support. It is thus the beginning, not the end, of the
debate in Congress on how to deal with two of President Obama's
priorities, climate change and energy.
"The draft measure, written by Representatives Henry A. Waxman of
California and Edward J. Markey of Massachusetts, sets a slightly
more ambitious goal for capping heat-trapping gases than Mr. Obama's
proposal. The bill requires that emissions be reduced 20 percent
from 2005 levels by 2020, while Mr. Obama's plan calls for a 14
percent reduction by 2020. Both would reduce emissions of carbon
dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases by roughly 80 percent by
2050."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/us/politics/01energycnd.html?pagewanted=print
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