[TheClimate.Vote] April 14, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Apr 14 09:49:51 EDT 2018
/April 14, 2018/
*
*[first big tipping point]*
Avoid Gulf stream disruption at all costs, scientists warn
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/13/avoid-at-all-costs-gulf-streams-record-weakening-prompts-warnings-global-warming>
*How close the world is to a catastrophic collapse of giant ocean
currents is unknown, making halting global warming more critical than
ever, scientists say
Serious disruption to the Gulf Stream ocean currents that are crucial in
controlling global climate must be avoided "at all costs", senior
scientists have warned. The alert follows the revelation this week that
the system is at its weakest ever recorded.
Past collapses of the giant network have seen some of the most extreme
impacts in climate history, with western Europe particularly vulnerable
to a descent into freezing winters. A significantly weakened system is
also likely to cause more severe storms in Europe, faster sea level rise
on the east coast of the US and increasing drought in the Sahel in Africa.
The new research worries scientists because of the huge impact global
warming has already had on the currents and the unpredictability of a
future "tipping point".
The currents that bring warm Atlantic water northwards towards the pole,
where they cool, sink and return southwards, is the most significant
control on northern hemisphere climate outside the atmosphere. But the
system, formally called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(Amoc), has weakened by 15% since 1950, thanks to melting Greenland ice
and ocean warming making sea water less dense and more buoyant.
This represents a massive slowdown - equivalent to halting all the
world's rivers three times over, or stopping the greatest river, the
Amazon, 15 times. Such weakening has not been seen in at least the last
1,600 years, which is as far back as researchers have analysed so far.
Furthermore, the new analyses show the weakening is accelerating...
"We are dealing with a system that in some aspects is highly
non-linear, so fiddling with it is very dangerous, because you may
well trigger some surprises," he said. "I wish I knew where this
critical tipping point is, but that is unfortunately just what we
don't know. We should avoid disrupting the Amoc at all costs. It is
one more reason why we should stop global warming as soon as possible."
Oceanographer Peter Spooner, at University College London, shares the
concern: "The extent of the changes we have discovered comes as a
surprise to many, including myself, and points to significant changes in
the future."
more at:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/13/avoid-at-all-costs-gulf-streams-record-weakening-prompts-warnings-global-warming
[Follow the money]
*Mike Pompeo is a disaster for the planet. Why do Democrats back him?
<https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/13/mike-pompeo-disaster-climate-change-democrats>*
Sarah Meyerhoff
Pompeo is extreme in his denial of climate change. We must pressure
Democrats who have backed him to change course
Ignorant, dangerous, and absolutely unbelievable." This is how Mike
Pompeo, then the nominee for CIA director, described the idea that
climate change threatens our nation's security in his2017 Senate
confirmation hearings
<https://www.c-span.org/video/?421225-1/cia-director-nominee-mike-pompeo-rules-torture-confirmation-hearing-testimony>.
It's also how our generation and many to come will remember any senator
who votes to confirm Pompeo as our next secretary of state.
Donald Trump's decision to nominate Pompeo to replace the former
ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson signals loud and clear that he wants fossil
fuel barons to continue running our government and state department.
Infamous as the "congressman from Koch", Pompeo is thetop all-time
recipient<https://twitter.com/OpenSecretsDC/status/799778722048045056>of
Koch Industries campaign contributions; he acceptednearly
$1.5m<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00030744&cycle=CAREER&type=I>from
the fossil fuel companies between 2009 and 2017.
Mike Pompeo: what will the US state department look like under his
control?
Read more
In exchange for these payments
<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/13/climate/pompeo-state-department-climate-change.html>,
he used his tenure in the House of Representatives to stymie progress on
climate action, curry favors for big oil and gas, and regularly spread
misinformation and lies about climate science to help pad the Koch
brothers' pocketbooks.
There's no doubt that Pompeo, widely recognized as a militant climate
denier and "yes man" to the president, will pick up where Tillerson left
off ingutting the department's climate diplomacy programs
<https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060059076>andopening the fragile Arctic
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18052017/arctic-council-climate-change-rex-tillerson-donald-trump>to
drilling for oil and gas that humanitycan't afford to burn.
<https://www.ecowatch.com/worlds-top-carbon-reserves-that-must-be-kept-in-the-ground-to-prevent--1882157731.html>
And though it seems unthinkable that any secretary of state could be
worse for the planet than the former CEO of Exxon, Pompeo is even more
extreme than Tillerson in his climate denialism and his opposition to
the Paris climate agreement (from which Tillerson urged Trump not
towithdraw
<http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/337578-tillerson-my-view-didnt-change-on-paris-climate-agreement>).
What's more, as warming global temperatures spawn extreme weather
events, fuel mass migration, exacerbate humanitarian crises and undercut
global stability, Pompeo's anti-Muslim and anti-woman stances,
war-hawkishness, and abysmal record on human rights will further
endanger billions of people who are hit first and hardest by climate
impacts.
While Democratic lawmakers hit Pompeo hard on a range of foreign policy
and human rights questions in Thursday's confirmation hearing, climate
change was hardly mentioned, and so far, only a handful of senators have
come out publicly against Pompeo's pending nomination.
- - - -
Over 20,000 young people and citizens across our country have written
letters to six of these Democratic senators, which we, along with ,
last week to their Capitol Hill offices. Bowing to grassroots pressure,
Senators Tina Smith and Brian Schatz vowed to vote against Pompeo's
confirmation at a Wednesday rally alongside Senator Bernie Sanders and
activists from MoveOn, Win Without War, J Street, Indivisible, Sunrise
and many other ally organizations.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/13/mike-pompeo-disaster-climate-change-democrats
*
*[Cleaner spills]*
Shipping to halve carbon footprint by 2050 under first sector-wide
climate strategy
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/04/13/shipping-halve-carbon-footprint-2050-first-sector-wide-climate-strategy/>*
Published on 13/04/2018
For the first time ever, there is a climate target for shipping, after a
tense week of talks at the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
It is a compromise between a concerted push by Pacific islands and
Europe for high ambition and strong resistance to any emissions cap at
all from the US and emerging economies.
While nobody was thrilled by the outcome, it sends a signal to the
industry to start investing in clean technology and low carbon fuels.
Big fights are still to come, not least on reconciling the principles of
the UN climate and shipping bodies. The first puts the onus on the
developed world to lead on emissions cuts, while the second demands a
level playing field for all ships, regardless of where they are registered.
Under the deal, the IMO must apply both principles as it develops
measures to put the climate target into practice, Sara Stefanini reports.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/04/13/shipping-halve-carbon-footprint-2050-first-sector-wide-climate-strategy/
[Looking up]
*New satellite to spot planet-warming industrial methane leaks
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/12/new-satellite-to-spot-planet-warming-industrial-methane-leaks>*
Multimillion dollar project will scan and make public methane leaks from
oil and gas plants that are a major contributor to global warming
The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) has announced it aims to launch a
satellite called MethaneSAT by 2021 to scan the globe and make major
leaks public...
Plugging methane leaks is widely seen as a fast, cheap way to tackle
climate change. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates half of
the gas leaks could be stopped at zero cost, because the cost of doing
so is offset by the value of the extra gas captured and then sold. But
currently public information about the leaks is scarce and near-absent
in regions where scrutiny is unwelcome...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/12/new-satellite-to-spot-planet-warming-industrial-methane-leaks
[do worry honey]
*Bee Worried: A new **study
<https://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=9651c62793&e=95b355344d>***set
to be published today in Global Change Biology found that drought,
increased by climate change, will reduce the availability of flowers,
impacting bee populations. Researchers modeled the effect of droughts on
flower populations, and found populations are poised to halve, as well
as produce less nectar. This severely limits the availability of pollen
for insects like bees,which not only serve important roles as
pollinators but also have rippling effects up the food chain.
- - - - - *
Droughts mean fewer flowers for bees
<https://phys.org/news/2018-04-droughts-bees.html>*Droughts are expected
to become more common and more intense in many parts of the world, and
researchers studied the impact on flowering plants using a field experiment.
They found that drought roughly halved the overall number of flowers.
This means less food for bees and other pollinators, which visit flowers
for the nectar and pollen that they provide...
"The level of drought that we looked at was calculated to be a rare
event, but with climate change such droughts are expected to become much
more common."
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-04-droughts-bees.html#jCp
- - - -
Global Change Biology
*PRIMARY RESEARCH ARTICLE
<https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.14130>*
TOOLS SHARE
*Abstract*
Climate change is predicted to result in increased occurrence and
intensity of drought in many regions worldwide. By increasing plant
physiological stress, drought is likely to affect the floral
resources (flowers, nectar and pollen) that are available to
pollinators. However, little is known about impacts of drought at
the community level, nor whether plant community functional
composition influences these impacts. To address these knowledge
gaps, we investigated the impacts of drought on floral resources in
calcareous grassland. Drought was simulated using rain shelters and
the impacts were explored at multiple scales and on four different
experimental plant communities varying in functional trait
composition. First, we investigated the effects of drought on nectar
production of three common wildflower species (Lathyrus pratensis,
Onobrychis viciifolia and Prunella vulgaris). In the drought
treatment, L. pratensis and P. vulgaris had a lower proportion of
flowers containing nectar and O. viciifolia had fewer flowers per
raceme. Second, we measured the effects of drought on the diversity
and abundance of floral resources across plant communities. Drought
reduced the abundance of floral units for all plant communities,
irrespective of functional composition, and reduced floral species
richness for two of the communities. Functional diversity did not
confer greater resistance to drought in terms of maintaining floral
resources, probably because the effects of drought were ubiquitous
across component plant communities. The findings indicate that
drought has a substantial impact on the availability of floral
resources in calcareous grassland, which will have consequences for
pollinator behaviour and populations.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.14130
[Big, bigger, biggest battery, and more]
*World's largest solar battery? Tesla's may get beat
<https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2018/04/11/worlds-largest-solar-battery-tesla-may-get-beat/504963002/>*
PALM SPRINGS, Calif. — An energy company wants to build another huge
solar farm in the California desert — and it may come with the world's
biggest battery.
That battery would be triple the size of the one Tesla drew worldwide
attention for building in Australia last year.
The Crimson solar project would span 2,500 acres of public land south of
Interstate 10, east of Palm Springs at the base of the Mule Mountains.
San Francisco-based developer Recurrent Energy has asked the federal
government for permission to build 350 megawatts of solar power at the
site and up to 350 megawatts of battery storage. The biggest battery
currently in existence is a 100-megawatt system that Elon Musk's Tesla,
the electric-car maker and solar energy provider, installed in Australia.
- - - - -
But energy storage is also taking off in places such as Arizona, Hawaii
and Texas, and other markets are likely to follow as costs continue to
fall. Finn-Foley, from GTM Research, said lithium-ion batteries saw
"spectacular price declines" of up to 30% in 2015 and 2016 and should
continue to get up to 8% cheaper every year for the next few years.
Already, California officials have started rejecting proposed gas plants
and asking utilities for more batteries instead. Finn-Foley thinks that
before too long, economics will make the choice between a new gas plant
and a solar-plus-storage facility an easy one.
"Within five years, batteries could potentially compete head to head,"
he said. "Within 10 years, I think storage wins."
Recurrent Energy was founded in 2006 and acquired in 2015 by Canadian
Solar, an Ontario-based solar panel manufacturer that has operations in
two dozen countries. Recurrent has developed 2 gigawatts, or 2,000
megawatts, of operating solar projects, including several large
facilities in Kern County, Calif.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2018/04/11/worlds-largest-solar-battery-tesla-may-get-beat/504963002/
[Come fly with heat]
*How climate services could revolutionise the aviation industry (and
save you money)
<http://lgi-consulting.com/how-climate-services-could-revolutionise-the-aviation-industry-and-save-you-money/>*
Flying is a contributor to climate change, but how will climate change
impact flying? A new report finds that under the emissions scenarios of
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,* both medium- and large-sized aircraft will be unable
to lift as much weight at their current speeds. The reason is that the
predicted higher temperatures will result in lower air density, yielding
a less-effective plane lift. Indeed, The Economist reports that this has
already happened, with dozens of planes being grounded in Arizona on a
particularly hot day in 2017...
Several factors of course play into this equation, but the report notes
that aircraft flying out of airports with higher elevations, as well as
aircraft using shorter runways in high temperatures, will be the most
affected. Anywhere from 10%-30% of all flights taking off during the
daily high temperatures are predicted to have reduced lift abilities,
resulting in the need to cut as much as 4% of their overall weight.
http://lgi-consulting.com/how-climate-services-could-revolutionise-the-aviation-industry-and-save-you-money/
- - - - - -
*The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance
<https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9>*
Ethan D. Coffel
Abstract
Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate
change will likely impact the air transportation system over the
coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air
density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft
wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight
restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general
model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of
aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of
airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial
aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections
of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5
and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight
restriction. We find that on average, 10-30% of annual flights
departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some
weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean
restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and
fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large
aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high
temperatures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest
impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a
non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around
the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design,
airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9
[2017 animation in the imperative voice]
*A Brief History of CO2 Emissions
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQ7S0D1iucY>*
Potsdam Institute
Published on Sep 13, 2017
An animated short film on greenhouse gas emissions.
Greenhouse gas emissions are one of the driving forces behind climate
change. In our short film "A Brief History of CO2 Emissions", we
visualize the geographic distribution and the historic dimension of
carbon dioxide emissions.
By combining data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
(CDIAC) and the baseline projections of CO2 emissions by the Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), we were able to visualize
the CO2 emissions from 1751 to 2100 on a highly detailed geographical level.
Our aim was to make the relationship between CO2 emissions and global
warming comprehensible to the general public. Essential to our film is
the concept of an emissions budget. At the 2015 UN Climate Conference in
Paris it was agreed to keep global warming to well below two degrees
Celsius. In order to achieve this goal, we can only emit a limited
amount of CO2 into the atmosphere. Ultimately, we have to reduce the CO2
emissions to zero.
Animated information graphics and data visualizations were used to
illustrate the complexity of the topic
https://uclab.fh-potsdam.de/projects/co2
Release via Potsdam Institute
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQ7S0D1iucY
[University of California Television - 5 year old video still valid ]
*How Hot will it Get? - Science at the Theater
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hhL93BVU_E>*
University of California Television (UCTV)
Published on Jun 6, 2013
(Visit: http://www.uctv.tv) Explore the latest projections about the
extent of planetary warming and the dire consequences of our growing
carbon imbalance. Tune in to hear presentations by Lawrence Berkeley Lab
climate scientists Bill Collins, Margaret Torn, Michael Wehner, and Jeff
Chambers, as well as UC Berkeley economist Max Aufhammer. Series:
"Science at the Theater" [9/2013] [Science] [Show ID: 25473]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hhL93BVU_E
<http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/10/05/reviews/carson-obit.html>*This
Day in Climate History - April 14, 1964
<http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/10/05/reviews/carson-obit.html> -
from D.R. Tucker*
April 14, 1964: Writer and biologist Rachel Carson, whose 1962 book
"Silent Spring" galvanized a generation to take environmental concerns
seriously, passes away at 56.
http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/10/05/reviews/carson-obit.html
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