[TheClimate.Vote] April 15, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sun Apr 15 11:14:39 EDT 2018
/April 15, 2018/
[cough, cough, ahem]
*Wildfire smoke hurts heart, not just lungs, new study finds
<https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/11/wildfire-smoke-hurts-heart-not-just-lungs-new-study-finds/>*
mercurynews.com | Apr. 13
Wildfire smoke is bad for your lungs, but now scientists say it may be
just as bad for your heart.
As rising global temperatures spark more and more intense fires, a new
study out of UC San Francisco
<http://jaha.ahajournals.org/content/7/8/e007492> suggests smoke may
rise as an even bigger problem for cardiovascular health in California -
especially among its senior citizens.
"We think about smoking cigarettes as being related to heart disease in
medical school," said Zachary Wettstein, a graduating medical student at
UC San Francisco and lead author of the study. "But it’s not a
connection physicians typically make with air pollution in general."
The research published Wednesday in the Journal of the American Heart
Association comes as Californians are coping with some of the deadliest
and destructive wildfire seasons in state history - and it may change
how doctors think about wildfire smoke and heart health.
According to the study, people exposed to wildfire smoke are placed at
higher short-term risk for conditions like heart failure, ischemic heart
disease and stroke. The denser the smoke, the higher the risk. This
effect is seen across all adults, but is most dramatic among those age
65 and older....
- - - - -
"What we think happens is that you breathe in the particles, they start
an inflammation process in the lungs, and that causes inflammation
around the body and can trigger a cardiovascular disease event," said
Joel Kaufman, a physician-epidemiologist at the University of Washington
who studies how cardiovascular disease is impacted by environmental factors.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/11/wildfire-smoke-hurts-heart-not-just-lungs-new-study-finds/
- - - - -
[the complete study]
*Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Emergency Department Visits
Associated With Wildfire Smoke Exposure in California in 2015
<http://jaha.ahajournals.org/content/7/8/e007492>*
Journal of the American Heart Association
*Abstract*
*Background*
Wildfire smoke is known to exacerbate respiratory conditions;
however, evidence for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events has
been inconsistent, despite biological plausibility.
*Methods and Results*
A population‐based epidemiologic analysis was conducted for daily
cardiovascular and cerebrovascular emergency department (ED) visits
and wildfire smoke exposure in 2015 among adults in 8 California air
basins. A quasi‐Poisson regression model was used for zip code‐level
counts of ED visits, adjusting for heat index, day of week,
seasonality, and population. Satellite‐imaged smoke plumes were
classified as light, medium, or dense based on model‐estimated
concentrations of fine particulate matter. Relative risk was
determined for smoky days for lag days 0 to 4. Rates of ED visits by
age‐ and sex‐stratified groups were also examined. Rates of
all‐cause cardiovascular ED visits were elevated across all lags,
with the greatest increase on dense smoke days and among those aged
>65 years at lag 0 (relative risk 1.15, 95% confidence interval
[1.09, 1.22]). All‐cause cerebrovascular visits were associated with
smoke, especially among those 65 years and older, (1.22 [1.00,
1.49], dense smoke, lag 1). Respiratory conditions were also
increased, as anticipated (1.18 [1.08, 1.28], adults >65 years,
dense smoke, lag 1). No association was found for the control
condition, acute appendicitis. Elevated risks for individual
diagnoses included myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease,
heart failure, dysrhythmia, pulmonary embolism, ischemic stroke, and
transient ischemic attack.
*Conclusions*
Analysis of an extensive wildfire season found smoke exposure to be
associated with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular ED visits for all
adults, particularly for those over aged 65 years.
http://jaha.ahajournals.org/content/7/8/e007492
[Video from the great debunker - potholer54]
*Top 10 climate change myths (find the answer to your favorite)
<https://youtu.be/FBF6F4Bi6Sg>*
22 minute video by potholer54
Published on Apr 14, 2018
(with SOURCES)
I made this video to summarize all the various climate myths I have
covered over the last 10 years. There is no copyright as long as it is
not edited, so please feel free to mirror it. I hope this will be a
definitive visual guide to the most common pieces of nonsense doing the
rounds of the internet.
https://youtu.be/FBF6F4Bi6Sg
- - - - -
[And the great science correction site]
*Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming
misinformation
<https://www.skepticalscience.com/2018-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_15.html>*
2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science
Facebook Page during the past week.
https://www.skepticalscience.com/2018-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_15.html
[video documentary 23 minutes]
*The Climate and the Cross
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2018/apr/13/the-climate-and-the-cross-us-evangelical-christians-tussle-with-climate-change>*
An internal battle is simmering among US Christians over whether climate
change is a call to protect the Earth, the work of God to be welcomed,
or does not exist at all.
Evangelicals have traditionally been the bedrock of conservative
politics in the US, including on climate change. But a heated debate is
taking pace across the country, with some Christians protesting in the
name of protecting the Earth, seeing it as a duty to be done in God's
name. One group has even built a chapel in the way of a pipeline and a
radical pastor has encouraged his congregation to put themselves in the
way of the diggers. Meanwhile, a firm supporter of Donald Trump
criss-crosses the country promoting solar power.
But there is still the traditional resistance - a climate scientist who
denies the world is warming and a preacher in Florida who sees the fact
he was flooded as a good sign of divine presence. With stories from
across the country featuring pastors and churchgoers, and showing
conflict between generations, races and classes, could it be a
surprising section of Christian Americans who could provide hope for the
country's attitude to climate change?
Key credits
Directors, producers and cinematographers: Chloe White and Will Davies
Editors: Chloe White, Will Davies and Nina Rac
Executive producers for the Guardian: Charlie Phillips and Lindsay Poulton
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2018/apr/13/the-climate-and-the-cross-us-evangelical-christians-tussle-with-climate-change
[Another disease from global warming]
*This is why Hoosiers may soon have to worry about diseases such as
malaria and Zika
<https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2018/04/06/why-hoosiers-may-soon-have-worry-diseases-such-malaria-and-zika/487389002/>*
Emily Hopkins
Tropical illnesses such as malaria, dengue fever and the Zika virus
could be commonplace in Indiana by the end of the century. Why? Climate
change.
Lyme disease and West Nile virus could also become more common,
according to a new report released in association with the ongoing
Indiana Climate Change Impact Assessment. The report outlines an Indiana
that is warmer and wetter, posing a number of public health risks,
including an increase of mosquitoes, ticks and other illness-spreading
insects.
"Conditions are already ripe in southern Indiana to host these
diseases," said Gabriel Filippelli, director of the Center for Urban
Health at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis and lead
author on the report. "Diseases that we eradicated in the U.S. 100 years
ago are likely to be raging back in the near future."
That's because climate change will increase temperatures and flooding in
the state. The declining number of days when the temperature reaches
below 5 degrees, which have a controlling effect on insect populations,
will also contribute to the increase.
Marion County has already seen a 500 percent increase in mosquitoes
since 1981.The increase in the number of extreme rainfall and flooding
will also bring such risks as toxic algal blooms, gastrointestinal
illnesses and prevalence of lead and mold inside homes.
- - - - - -
Other effects of climate change the report discusses include increased
allergens from weeds, poorer air quality, and mental health effects.
Extreme, climate-related events can cause anxiety and depression, and
the stress caused by these events could exacerbate hypertension and
other cardiac conditions.
This assessment is the first time that the impact of climate change on
Indiana has been so thoroughly examined. Another assessment was
published by Purdue in 2008, but is outdated and only scratched the
surface of what impacts climate change is having on the state.
This is the latest of several reports that will make up the Indiana
Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Thefirst report
<https://ag.purdue.edu/indianaclimate/indiana-climate-report/>, released
in March, discussed the baseline changes Hoosiers can expect from global
warming, including higher temperatures, increased precipitation, and
longer growing seasons.
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2018/04/06/why-hoosiers-may-soon-have-worry-diseases-such-malaria-and-zika/487389002/
[Cornell scientists]
*In Just 10-15 Years World May Hit 2 Degrees of Warming
<http://climatestate.com/2018/04/13/in-just-10-15-years-world-may-hit-2-degrees-of-warming/>*
( 14 minute Video)
Back in 2011, a Cornell University research team first made the
groundbreaking discovery that leaking methane from the shale gas
fracking boom could make burning fracked gas worse for the climate than
coal.https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/04/11/climate-change-two-degree-warming-fracking-natural-gas-rush-ingraffea
Why a half-degree temperature rise is a big
dealhttps://climate.nasa.gov/news/2458/why-a-half-degree-temperature-rise-is-a-big-deal
Paris 1.5-2 degrees C target far from safe, say world-leading
scientistshttp://www.climatecodered.org/2017/07/paris-15-2c-target-far-from-safe-say.html
The climate is changing faster and more dramatically than it might
have otherwise, and - far from serving as a bridge fuel -
fracking huge amounts of natural gas has already played a
significant role in pushing the world toward a vastly more difficult
future.
http://climatestate.com/2018/04/13/in-just-10-15-years-world-may-hit-2-degrees-of-warming/
---
[Sea level rise map - enter global temperature rise ]
*Surging Seas SEEING CHOICES
<https://seeing.climatecentral.org/#12/40.7298/-74.0070?show=lockinAnimated&level=0&unit=feet&pois=hide>*
Enter a coastal city
Scroll up the temperature rise.
See the consequential sea level rise
This map shows sea levels locked in by different amounts of carbon
pollution, according to recentscientific
<http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1511186112>research
<http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/uploads/research/Global-Mapping-Choices-Report.pdf>.
If we burn enough fossil fuels to heat the planet by 4 degrees C -
continuing a path of unchecked pollution-we could drown coastal
cities worldwide. If we make a rapid transition to a global clean
energy economy and achieve the main goal of the Paris Agreement,
limiting warming to 2 degrees C, some cities will be saved. If we go
faster and further to achieve the most ambitious Paris goal, 1.5
degrees C, the outlook improves dramatically. Still, it is sobering
to map the challenges following after 1degrees C of warming, a level
we have just passed.
According toClimate Central’s analysis
<http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/uploads/research/Global-Mapping-Choices-Report.pdf>,
470 to 760 million people (central finding, 627 million) live on
land that would be condemned by 4 degrees C warming. The number
drops by more than half for 2 degrees C, and more than half again
for 1.5 degrees C.
Thesetwo
<https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/>efforts
<http://climateactiontracker.org/>evaluate how much warming we can
currently expect in light of the national pledges made at Paris and
the policies developed since then.
https://seeing.climatecentral.org/#12/40.7298/-74.0070?show=lockinAnimated&level=0&unit=feet&pois=hide
[weekend warrior watch]
*Ticks rising
<https://aeon.co/essays/how-lyme-disease-became-the-first-epidemic-of-climate-change>*
In a warming world, ticks thrive in more places than ever before, making
Lyme disease the first epidemic of climate change...
Calves not even a year old harboured up to 60,000 blood-sucking
arthropods known as winter ticks. In Vermont, dead moose were turning up
with 100,000 ticks - each. In New Hampshire, the moose population had
dropped from 7,500 to 4,500 from the 1990s to 2014, the emaciated bodies
of cows, bulls and calves bearing similar infestations of ticks. These
magnificent animals were literally being bled to death...
In Minnesota, the number of moose dropped by 58 per cent in the decade
through to 2015, similar to losses in New England. Environmentalists
believe moose could well be eradicated in the Midwest by 2020, with
stocks declining precipitously in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan...
- - - - - -
Moose like and need the cold. They become sluggish when it’s warm,
failing to forage as they should, and becoming weak and vulnerable. In
the warmer, shorter winters of the US Midwest and Northeast, bumper
crops of winter ticks are surviving to wake up when the trees burst to
life in earlier springs; they have more time in longer falls to cling in
veritable swarms on the edges of high bushes, their legs outstretched,
waiting for a ranging, unsuspecting, and wholly unprepared moose. When
the moose lie in the snow, they leave carpets of blood from engorged
ticks. When a baby moose emerges from the womb in Minnesota, a band of
thirsty ticks moves from mother to neonate. The moose shed those fat,
flush ticks onto fall and winter ground, and the ticks snuggle into the
leaf litter rather than freeze in the snow, as they once might have,
reducing tick mortality but upping that of the moose.
Samuel is a careful scientist who does not jump to conclusions, and he
sees many forces working together to kill off moose in the finely tuned
orchestra that is the outdoors. Wolves, liver fluke, brain worms,
unmanaged hunting, habitat loss - they are all part of the picture.
Because of how it affects and is affected by those other factors,
‘Climate change,’ he told me, ‘might be the major one.’
‘It’s the ticks.’
- - - - - -
Auerbach, an active woman in her 70s, was bitten in her 40s by a small
tick that thrives in the woods, thickets and backyard edges of the
county in which she lives, in New York State’s Hudson Valley. She lost
10 years of her life to that tick, had to retire as a highly rated
programmer at the nearby IBM plant, and still suffers the aftermath of a
case of Lyme disease that was caught too late. ‘It brought me to my
knees,’ said Auerbach, among an all-too significant share of people
infected with Lyme who suffer long-term symptoms. To her, the rise of
winter ticks is one more indicator of an environment out of whack, and
so is the more measured, but nonetheless relentless, surge in
blacklegged ticks, like the one whose bite haunts her 30 years on.
- - - -
Ticks merge ‘to form a single contiguous focus … a shifting landscape of
risk for human exposure’
But it is the change over the course of 18 years of maps that is
telling, depicting the flowering of Lyme in a sort of cartoon flip-book
style as it spreads across the Northeast and Midwest of the US. North it
goes up New York’s Hudson River Valley and into the state’s Adirondack
Mountains, jumping the border to Vermont’s Green and New Hampshire’s
White Mountains. West and south it moves great guns into Maryland and
northern Virginia. By 2014, the dots consume much of Pennsylvania and
darken New York’s Southern Tier to the shores of the Great Lakes and the
St Lawrence River. The Upper Midwest is liberally peppered. Dots appear
in many other states, too.
- - - - - -
In Europe, ticks are on a similarly relentless march north. In Sweden,
researchers studied the range of the castor bean tick from 1994 to 1996
by dragging cloths in 57 locations and querying residents about bites
and sightings. They were able to establish a boundary line at about
60degrees 5′N, above which the ticks could not survive. By 2008, the
ticks were found to have moved some 300 miles north, mainly along the
Baltic coast, to about 66degrees N. In Norway, the story was repeated....
- - - -
The questions are these: did a changing climate cause this epidemic? Or
is climate change merely driving this sickness - with the ticks and
animals that circulate it - to new places and new peoples? Evidence most
certainly supports the latter. The former is trickier. But Lyme disease
is distinctive as the first disease to emerge in North America, Europe
and China in the age of climate change, the first to become entrenched,
widespread and consequential to multitudes of people. It is growing,
too, in places such as Australia, where residents are told, as they were
in southern Canada and still are in many parts of the US, Canada and
Europe, that they must have some other illness besides Lyme disease or,
if not, they contracted the infection somewhere else. ‘We’re an island.
We have island thinking,’ said Trevor Cheney, a country GP from the
mid-north coast of New South Wales, who routinely diagnoses Lyme disease
though doctors are told it doesn’t exist in Australia. ‘As if migratory
birds’ - which drop ticks far and wide - ‘don’t come there,’ he told me
at a conference in Paris.
Such poor advice has cost many Lyme patients valuable time to seek
treatment. It grows from a failure, by public health and medical
experts, to see the past as the future. Lyme disease is moving to new
places, as it has for nearly half a century. In the decades since the
children of Lyme, Connecticut, were infected, little progress has been
made to control ticks, protect people from bites, test with certainty
for the Lyme pathogen Borrelia burgdorferi and, especially, adequately
treat the infected. Ixodes ticks - blacklegged, castor bean or otherwise
- deserve our respect. They come armed not only with Lyme disease but
with a growing menu of microbes: bacterial, viral and parasitic, known
and yet unnamed. Ticks can, and sometimes do, deliver two, three or four
diseases in one bite. So resourceful are infected ticks that two feeding
side by side on the same animal can pass pathogens, one to the other,
and never infect the host. So clever is the Lyme pathogen that infected
ticks are more efficient at finding prey than uninfected ticks. These
ticks might not be able to fly or jump or trek more than a couple of
human steps. But they have changed many lives, cost billions in medical
care, and coloured a walk in the woods or a child’s romp in the grass,
our very relationship with nature, with angst.
This is all the more disturbing when we realise, ultimately, that it is
we who unleashed them.
Excerpted from Lyme: The First Epidemic of Climate Change by Mary Beth
Pfeiffer. Copyright © 2018 Mary Beth Pfeiffer. Reproduced by permission
of Island Press, Washington, DC. Islandpress.org
https://aeon.co/essays/how-lyme-disease-became-the-first-epidemic-of-climate-change
[Already in place in most states - or was]
*The Most Important Climate Treaty You’ve Never Heard Of
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11042018/climate-treaty-gothenburg-protocol-air-pollution-regulations-global-warming-science-black-carbon-lrtap>*
This unsung treaty limits pollutants that increase global warming or
hurt human health. Its latest update-which adds black carbon-could be
ratified this year.
BY SABRINA SHANKMAN
Raise a hand if you've heard of the Gothenburg Protocol.
No? Well, you're in good company. This treaty has been called an "unsung
hero" in the fight against air pollution and climate change. It may be
unknown in the United States, but it is a landmark international
agreement, setting limits on how much black carbon and other pollutants
countries can emit.
Black carbon, or soot, is seen as a unique danger to the climate because
its ability to accelerate warming in the atmosphere is many times
stronger than carbon dioxide. It also speeds up the melting of sea ice.
This double-whammy is responsible for ahalf a degree Celsius
<https://www.amap.no/documents/doc/summary-for-policy-makers-arctic-climate-issues-2015/1196>of
warming in the Arctic so far.
"The science had evolved to a certain degree that it was possible for
countries, governments to get involved," said Svante Bodin, the European
director of theInternational Cryosphere Climate Initiative
<http://iccinet.org/>, a network of policy experts and researchers
working to preserve the ice-covered portions of the Earth. "It had
become clear that this could have a strong climate impact."
TheGothenburg Protocol
<http://www.unece.org/environmental-policy/conventions/envlrtapwelcome/guidance-documents-and-other-methodological-materials/gothenburg-protocol.html>,
established in 1999, sets limits on nasty pollutants like sulfur
dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ammonia and volatile organic compounds, which
are hazardous to human health. (Some also contribute to global warming).
The pact was amended in 2012 to include black carbon, as the world
became more aware of the threat it posed.
As significant as the protocol has been, it remains unfinished. Some
countries, including the EU and the United States, have taken concrete
steps to achieve its goals via domestic policy, but the amended version
has not been ratified by enough countries to enter into force.
As evidence becomes clearer of theimpact of black carbon on the Arctic
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19032018/global-warming-arctic-air-pollution-short-lived-climate-pollutants-methane-black-carbon-hfcs-slcp>
and global climate change, the agreement faces a test: It still needs
six countries before it becomes official policy, which may happen this
year. The United States was an early adopter-just two days before
President Trump took office.
The protocol is rooted in the 1979Convention on Long-range Transboundary
Air Pollution
<http://www.unece.org/environmental-policy/conventions/envlrtapwelcome/the-air-convention-and-its-protocols/the-convention-and-its-achievements.html>,
known as LRTAP, which was first organized to tackle the problem of acid
rain. The idea is that air pollution isn't a local problem.What's
emitted by industries, power plants and vehicles in one country can
drastically impact another as pollutants are carried across borders...
- - - - -
Exposure to air pollution has been responsible for 1 in 20 deaths in the
United States, according to recent data in a 2016 report on LRTAP's
progress by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. In the
U.S., a 33 percent decrease in exposure to fine particulate matter and
ozone-which are both covered under LRTAP-could avoid 43,000 premature
deaths, tens of thousands of non-fatal heart attacks and respiratory and
cardiovascular hospitalizations, according to the report..
more at:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11042018/climate-treaty-gothenburg-protocol-air-pollution-regulations-global-warming-science-black-carbon-lrtap
- - - - -
[UNECE]
Gothenburg Protocol
Guidance documents and other methodological materials for the
implementation of the 1999 Protocol to Abate Acidification,
Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone (Gothenburg Protocol)
<http://www.unece.org/environmental-policy/conventions/envlrtapwelcome/guidance-documents-and-other-methodological-materials/gothenburg-protocol.html>
http://www.unece.org/environmental-policy/conventions/envlrtapwelcome/guidance-documents-and-other-methodological-materials/gothenburg-protocol.html
- - - - - -
[Wikipedia]
*Multi-effect Protocol
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-effect_Protocol>*
The*1999 Gothenburg Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and
Ground-level Ozone*(known as the*Multi-effect Protocol*or the*Gothenburg
Protocol*) is a multi-pollutant
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollutant>protocol designed to reduce
acidification,eutrophication
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutrophication>andground-level ozone
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropospheric_ozone>by setting emissions
ceilings forsulphur dioxide
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulphur_dioxide>,nitrogen oxides
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrogen_oxides>,volatile organic
compounds
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatile_organic_compounds>andammonia
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammonia>to be met by 2010. As of August
2014, the Protocol had been ratified by 26 parties, which includes 25
states and theEuropean Union
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union>.^[1]
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-effect_Protocol#cite_note-1>
The Protocol is part of theConvention on Long-Range Transboundary Air
Pollution
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Long-Range_Transboundary_Air_Pollution>.
The Convention is an international agreement to protect human health and
the natural environment fromair pollution
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_pollution>by control and reduction of
air pollution, including long-range transboundary air pollution.
The geographic scope of the Protocol includes Europe, North America and
countries of Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EECCA>).
On May 4, 2012, at a meeting at theUnited Nations Office at Geneva
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Office_at_Geneva>, the
Parties to the Gothenburg Protocol agreed on a substantial number of
revisions, most important are the inclusion of commitments of the
Parties to further reduce their emissions until 2020. These amendments
now need to beratified <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratification>by
Parties in order to make them binding....
more at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-effect_Protocol
*This Day in Climate History - April 14, 1988
<http://c-spanvideo.org/program/GoreCampa> - from D.R. Tucker*
April 15, 1988: In a speech at St. John's University in New York,
Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore states (specifically in
reference to the threat of nuclear weapons, though the statement
certainly applies to *another* worldwide threat):
"I believe that it is possible that future generations will look back on
this election year of 1988 and wonder with amazement how we could have
let these problems go unattended for so long." (22:50--23:01)
http://c-spanvideo.org/program/GoreCampa
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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