[TheClimate.Vote] August 17, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/August 17, 2018/

[emerging]
*World is finally waking up to climate change, says 'hothouse Earth' 
author 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/17/world-waking-up-to-reality-climate-change-hothouse-earth-author>*
Report predicting spiralling global temperatures has been downloaded 
270,000 times in just a few days
The scorching temperatures and forest fires of this summer’s heatwave 
have finally stirred the world to face the onrushing threat of global 
warming, claims the climate scientist behind the recent "hothouse 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/06/domino-effect-of-climate-events-could-push-earth-into-a-hothouse-state> 
Earth" report 
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/06/domino-effect-of-climate-events-could-push-earth-into-a-hothouse-state>.
Following an unprecedented 270,000 downloads of his study 
<http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/08/07/1810141115>, Johan 
Rockstrom, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, said 
he had not seen such a surge of interest since 2007, the year the Nobel 
prize was awarded to Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change...
- - -
With the world now believed to be in an "anomalously warm" phase 
<https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/aug/14/extreme-temperatures-especially-likely-for-next-four-years> 
until at least 2022, Rockstrom says the global public will increasingly 
feel the impacts of climate change and, he hopes, demand more urgency 
from their governments.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/17/world-waking-up-to-reality-climate-change-hothouse-earth-author
- - - -
[the original Hothouse study]
*Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene 
<http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/08/07/1810141115>*
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/08/07/1810141115


[Climate Refugees - audio segment 20mins]
*Weather Channel documents struggles of climate refugees in the U.S. 
<https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/08/16/climate-cast-climate-refugees-ticks-and-clean-jobs>*
Paul Huttner - Aug 16, 2018
There's been a surge in climate refugees on the United States' coasts as 
the seas rise. A boom in the tick population as winters warm. And, on a 
brighter note, an increase of clean energy jobs in the Midwest.
Weather Channel documenting climate change in U.S.: The Weather 
Channel's most recent series debuted at the beginning of August, called 
"Exodus." It focuses on the growing number of Americans who are moving 
away from the coasts as the seas rise. Kevin Hayes, executive editor of 
weather.com discussed the show and the tough decisions facing climate 
refugees.
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/08/16/climate-cast-climate-refugees-ticks-and-clean-jobs


[sometimes toxic]
*Scientists investigating 'unprecedented' algae bloom in Lake Superior 
<https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/08/14/scientists-investigating-unprecidented-algae-bloom-in-lake-superior>*
Dan Kraker - Aug 14, 2018
The water of Lake Superior along the rocky shoreline of northwestern 
Wisconsin's Apostle Islands is normally cold, clear and pristine. But 
late last week, kayakers and other visitors to the popular lakeshore 
found a scummy algae on Superior's surface.
While the bloom has largely dissipated, reports suggest it stretched in 
patches across a distance of about 50 miles along the shoreline from 
near Superior, Wis., to the Apostle Islands, said Robert Sterner, who 
directs the Large Lakes Observatory at the University of Minnesota Duluth.
In some places, the algae covered the water in a thin layer of scum the 
color of pea-green soup. In other areas, the bloom broke up and looked 
more like flecks of pollen suspended in the water.
"They're very noticeable and very unexpected in a place like the deep 
and cold and generally low-nutrient Lake Superior," Sterner said.
- - - -
It started in 2012. That's the year a blue-green algae bloom was first 
detected in Lake Superior. It happened a few weeks after a storm in 
which 10 inches of rain drenched Duluth and the surrounding region, 
wrecking infrastructure and sending a plume of brown sediment into the lake.
It happened again in 2016 following storms that flooded Lake Superior 
tributaries in northern Wisconsin.
And it happened again this year, after historic storms in June dumped 
nearly a foot of rain across the region.
"In each of those cases, we've seen a significant algal bloom develop," 
said Brenda LaFrancois, a National Park Service aquatic ecologist.
Those huge rainstorms carry massive amounts of sediment into Lake 
Superior. And that sediment contains a lot of nutrients — from cities, 
lawns and farm runoff — which feed algae growth.
The increasing frequency in algal blooms is also tied to warmer lake 
temperatures. Scientists at the University of Minnesota Duluth have 
found that Lake Superior summer surface water temperatures have 
increased by 5 degrees over the past 30 years.
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/08/14/scientists-investigating-unprecidented-algae-bloom-in-lake-superior


[more Hothouse discussion]
*Opinion: Time to re-think the climate change challenge 
<https://phys.org/news/2018-08-opinion-re-think-climate.html#jCp>*
August 16, 2018 by Will Steffen, ScienceNordic
The climate change challenge has fallen into a familiar pattern - more 
research papers on climate change, another COP (Conference of the 
Parties) meeting, more pledges by the world's governments to do 
something, continuing rises in greenhouse gas emissions, worsening 
extreme weather events, and so on and so on.
It's time we re-think the nature of this challenge.
That's just what a group of Earth System scientists did in our recent 
paper "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene", published 
in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The paper could have been titled, in more reader-friendly language, 
"Where on Earth are we going?" Still, it captured media attention around 
the glob
- - - -
Our article offers a different perspective - that the Earth System may 
behave as 'complex system', with well-defined states and transitions 
between them driven largely by feedback processes within the system, not 
only by 'external' drivers. This perspective is not as radical as it sounds.
- - - -
We argue that our current, very high human emissions of greenhouse gases 
could activate some important feedback processes within the system.
Examples include melting of Arctic summer sea ice that accelerates 
warming in the north, increasing wildfires in the boreal forests and 
Amazon rainforest that release more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, 
and the melting of permafrost in Siberia, which could release vast 
amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere.
*A domino effect to a Hothouse Earth*
Our analysis points to a risk that if enough of these feedback processes 
are activated, they could act like a row of dominoes that would form a 
global cascade.
Ultimately, such a feedback cascade could take the trajectory out of 
human control and irreversibly towards 'Hothouse Earth', with 
temperatures of four or five degrees centigrade above pre-industrial.
Such conditions would have massive impacts on humans, threatening the 
viability of contemporary civilisation.
*How credible is this analysis?*
Not only do we understand the nature of several of these feedback 
processes that have operated in the past, we are beginning to see signs 
of instabilities in some of these processes today. And we know that the 
Earth System existed in stable, much hotter conditions in the very 
recent geological past.
We can't yet put specific probabilities on the size of the risk that a 
planetary threshold could exist that might propel us into a Hothouse 
Earth. That requires more research. But we know enough about the nature 
of the Earth System that this risk needs to be taken very seriously.
There is likely to be much more at stake in transgressing the Paris 
climate targets than just a slightly warmer planet.
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-opinion-re-think-climate.html#jCp
- - - - -
*Planet now at risk of heading toward 'hothouse Earth' state 
<https://phys.org/news/2018-08-planet-hothouse-earth-state.html#jCp>*
Keeping global warming to within 1.5-2 degrees C may be more difficult 
than previously assessed, according to researchers. An international 
team of scientists has published a study in the Proceedings of the 
National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) showing that even if the carbon 
emission reductions called for in the Paris Agreement are met, there is 
a risk of Earth entering what the scientists call "Hothouse Earth" 
conditions.
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-planet-hothouse-earth-state.html#jCp


[follow the money]
*As Wildfires Rage in California, So Does the Battle Over Who Will Pay 
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/08/16/wildfires-california-liability-utilities/>*
"Everything is fire related these days," said Mayor Chris Coursey, as he 
wearily recounted efforts to recover the losses, including an estimated 
$1.2 million in lost property taxes and $1.1 million in sales taxes from 
the current fiscal year.
What's happening in Santa Rosa is playing out in other communities as 
Californians struggle with who should pay for the escalating financial 
cost from one of its biggest climate risks.
Climate change has set the stage for the dramatic increase in wildfires 
across the West, with rising temperatures, shrinking snowpack, more 
frequent and intense droughts combining to dry out forests and 
grasslands, providing fuel for raging fires...
- - - -
Historically, insurance companies, utilities and taxpayers have shared 
the bulk of the expenses of wildfire damage, though not in equal measures.
With the damage piling up, fierce fights have broken out in courtrooms 
and in the state capitol to try to shift the financial burden. A novel 
strategy emerged over the past year as eight cities and counties sued 
oil and gas companies for money to pay for the impacts of climate 
change, from sea level rise and flooding to wildfires.
California leads the country in the number of municipal climate lawsuits 
against fossil fuel companies, such as  Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Shell, 
but holding the companies accountable for climate impacts has been a 
tough road so far. In June, a federal judge dismissed the lawsuits from 
San Francisco and Oakland, ruling that the five fossil fuel defendants 
shouldn't be held accountable for a global problem created by so many 
people. While San Francisco and Oakland appeal the ruling, six other 
cities and counties are working through their cases in state court...
- - - -
The October fires generated about $10 billion in insured losses for 
homes, businesses and cars, and a set of massive blazes in Southern 
California last December added an additional $1.8 billion, according to 
a tally released by the California Department of Insurance.
State lawmakers face a deadline of Aug. 31 to vote on several bills 
related to fire costs, including a controversial proposal by Gov. Jerry 
Brown that calls for changing how courts apply a constitutional doctrine 
called inverse condemnation.
Utilities say the doctrine creates "essentially unlimited liabilities" 
because it compels them to settle lawsuits regardless of fault. Inverse 
condemnation holds that utilities could be liable even if they weren't 
negligent. That means power companies will have to compensate property 
owners when the companies' equipment caused a fire, even if they had 
followed safety rules.
Brown's proposal would eliminate that strict liability and require the 
courts to consider whether a utility followed safety rules and other 
factors that contributed to a fire, such as high winds. The courts also 
need to weigh the public benefits of electricity transmission against 
the harm caused to private property.
The proposal would also increase the maximum fine for each safety 
violation from $50,000 to $100,000, prohibit electric companies from 
passing on the fines to their customers via rate hikes, and require the 
utilities to submit an annual plan to improve fire safety.
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/08/16/wildfires-california-liability-utilities/


[Cough, cough...Cough,cough,cough,cough]
*A 'perfect storm' of wildfires puts Seattle's terrible air quality in 
the record books 
<https://www.geekwire.com/2018/perfect-storm-wildfires-puts-seattles-terrible-air-quality-record-books/>*
https://www.geekwire.com/2018/perfect-storm-wildfires-puts-seattles-terrible-air-quality-record-books/
- - -
[Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog]*
Seattle's Worst 24h Air Quality on Record 
<https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/08/seattles-worst-24h-air-quality-on-record.html>*
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/08/seattles-worst-24h-air-quality-on-record.html


[Zinke dinky]
*Fewer than 1 percent of offshore drilling tracts auctioned by Trump 
receive bids 
<http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/401984-fewer-than1-percent-of-offshore-drilling-tracts-auctioned-by>*
Of the 14,622 tracts made available by the Interior department for 
bidding on 801,288 acres in federal waters off the Gulf of Mexico, only 
144 received bids.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/401984-fewer-than1-percent-of-offshore-drilling-tracts-auctioned-by


[Methane is new to the models]
*Thawing permafrost releases more methane than expected 
<http://www.highnorthnews.com/thawing-permafrost-releases-more-methane-than-expected/>*
Challenging current theories, a new study suggest that water-saturated 
permafrost soils produce substantial amounts of methane, which would 
have enormous effects on climate change.
Until now, previous studies underestimated the amount of methane 
produced from thawing permafrost. "Our theory is that more methane is 
produced than observed until now and that previous experiments didn't 
last long enough," says Christian Knoblauch of the Universität Hamburg's 
Institute of Soil Science to HNN. The results of the study were 
published in 'Nature Climate Change' in March.
*Paradigm shift in methane and CO2 production*
"Thawing permafrost has the potential to produce much more methane than 
thought, because studies have not taken into account the long time it 
takes for methane producing microorganisms to become active in thawing 
permafrost."
In the study Knoblauch presented at the annual meeting of the European 
Geophysical Union (EGU) in Vienna, Austria, long-time laboratory 
experiments were conducted for the first time using soils samples from 
Siberia. In some samples, methanogens, which are microorganisms that 
produce methane as a metabolic end-product under anoxic conditions, 
started to develop only after one to three years. Observing the 
microorganisms for another three years led to equal productions of 
CO2and methane in the soil samples.
*Microorganisms essential for methane production*
"The microorganisms are incorporated into the thawing permafrost at the 
bottom of the soils e.g. by leaching from the surface soil layer above 
the permafrost," Knoblauch elaborates. Through the periodic thawing, the 
microorganisms are mixed into the permafrost. Field experiments have 
shown how the collapsing of the active layer surface in summer moves the 
microorganisms into the former permafrost.
However, "production does not equal release of methane and we need 
further modelling and additional field studies," Knoblauch explains.
*More research needed on methane release*
The release of methane also depends on the vegetation composition. In 
the case of vascular plants that have specialized tissues for conducting 
gas, methane is released rapidly into the atmosphere. In comparison, 
mosses and drained surfaces result in more methane being oxidized to 
carbon dioxide before released into the atmosphere.
If the soil is not completely water-saturated, but instead contains 
higher levels of oxygen, it provides a good environment for 
microorganisms that live off methane. They consume the energy-rich gas 
and transform it into CO2, which eventually results in a weaker effect 
on climate change.
http://www.highnorthnews.com/thawing-permafrost-releases-more-methane-than-expected/


[Yikes !]
*Citizen Scientists Show Black Widows Creeping North In Canada 
<Citizen%20Scientists%20Show%20Black%20Widows%20Creeping%20North%20In%20Canada,Study%20shows%20online%20observations%20can%20help%20researchers%20refine%20the%20range%20maps%20of%20many%20species%20overlooked%20by%20field%20biologists,,Read%20more:%20https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/citizen-scientists-show-black-widows-creeping-north-canada-180969970/#JsF3pEQsPVXiw1za.99,Give%20the%20gift%20of%20Smithsonian%20magazine%20for%20only%20$12%21%20http://bit.ly/1cGUiGv,Follow%20us:%20@SmithsonianMag%20on%20Twitter>*
"Distributions of spiders are relatively poorly known, and range maps 
are often based just on where scientists have found the species," Wang 
says in a statement. "[T]his paper illustrates that we can (and should!) 
incorporate citizen-science data and distribution modeling techniques to 
help bridge the knowledge gaps of less-studied species."
One reason the team chose black widows is that the markings on the 
spider are quite distinctive, making misidentification less likely. 
Though the study was primarily a test case, it did yield some new data 
about the black widow. Compared to pre-1990 data, it appears that the 
species is slowly but surely marching northward, most likely as a 
response to climate change. That means it could be possible to find the 
spiders in Montreal, a place they have yet to be discovered. "They're 
occupying new habitats that we didn't previously think they could," Wang 
tells Chung.
And what should you do if a black widow does take a stab at you when 
you're reaching for some poutine or perhaps logging a sighting in 
iNaturalist? Typically the bite causes pain at the site, which can 
spread to the abdomen or chest along with severe cramping and excessive 
sweating. The bite is rarely fatal for healthy adults, but everyone—most 
importantly children and the elderly—should check in with the doctor 
after an encounter.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/citizen-scientists-show-black-widows-creeping-north-canada-180969970/#JsF3pEQsPVXiw1za.99


[no peanut butter]
*As Water Temperatures Rise, Freshwater Jellyfish Found in British Canal 
<https://e360.yale.edu/digest/as-water-temperatures-rise-freshwater-jellyfish-found-in-british-canal>*
AUGUST 15, 2018
A freshwater jellyfish (Craspedacusta sowerbii).
Following weeks of scorching heat in the United Kingdom, a small 
transparent freshwater jellyfish that thrives in warm waters has been 
found in a British canal. Harmless to humans, the jellyfish, 
Craspedacusta sowerbii, is native to the Yangtze basin in China, but has 
spread to waterways worldwide over the last century.
In recent decades, the species has become an increasingly common sight 
as global temperatures rise, particularly in late summer when waters 
exceed 20 degrees Celsius (68 Fahrrenheit.)...
- - - -
Freshwater jellyfish first arrived in Britain in the 19th century when 
explorers brought back plants and animals from their travels. Summer 
sightings have increased in England since the 1980s in canals, shallow 
freshwater lakes, and flooded quarries as high water temperatures have 
become more common. In previous years, the species' main "blooms" appear 
in August and September, and disappear by October.
Blooms of these freshwater jellyfish have also been increasingly 
observed across Canada and the United States, particularly in the Great 
Lakes region; several parts of Europe, including Ireland, Sweden and 
Lithuania; in southeast Asia; and even as far as Patagonia in Chile and 
Argentina.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/as-water-temperatures-rise-freshwater-jellyfish-found-in-british-canal


[Check the basement for old newspapers]
*News Clip Linked Coal to Climate Change — 106 Years Ago Today 
<https://www.livescience.com/63334-coal-affecting-climate-century-ago.html>*
A note published in a New Zealand paper 106 years ago today (Aug. 14) 
predicted the Earth's temperature would rise because of 7 billion tons 
of carbon dioxide produced by coal consumption.
"The effect may be considerable in a few centuries," the article stated.
The clip was one of several one-paragraph stories in the "Science Notes 
and News" section ofThe Rodney and Otamatea Times 
<https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/rodney-and-otamatea-times-waitemata-and-kaipara-gazette/1912/8/14/7>, 
published Wednesday, Aug. 14, 1912.
The paragraph seems to have been originally printed in theMarch 1912 
issue of Popular Mechanics 
<https://books.google.com/books?id=Tt4DAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA341&lpg=PA341&dq=this+tends+to+make+the+air+a+more+effective+blanket+for+the+earth&source=bl&ots=QvdH-SgFLl&sig=WiPUNOIzM6udOSTBm2VXzRQB9K8&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjQq8apj_bPAhUa3YMKHfCZDLQQ6AEIKTAC#v=onepage&q&f=false>as 
the caption for an image of a large coal factory. The image goes with a 
story titled "Remarkable Weather of 1911: The Effect of the Combustion 
of Coal on the Climate — What Scientists Predict for the Future," by 
Francis Molena. [Photographic Proof of Climate Change: Time-Lapse Images 
of Retreating Glaciers 
<https://www.livescience.com/58774-time-lapse-photos-show-retreating-glaciers.html>]
In the article, Molena described how carbon dioxide in the air is 
associated withwarmer temperatures 
<https://www.livescience.com/37003-global-warming.html>, and "since 
burning coal produces carbon dioxide, it may be inquired whether the 
enormous use of that fuel in modern times may be an important factor in 
filling the atmosphere with this substance, and consequentlyindirectly 
raising the temperature 
<https://www.livescience.com/37743-greenhouse-effect.html>of the Earth."
When Molena's story was published, scientists had already been 
predicting the effects of coal combustion on climate for the past few 
decades. Researchers were studying the topic at least as early as 1882, 
as evidenced by H.A. Phillips' paper titled "Pollution of the 
Atmosphere," published that year in the journalNature 
<https://www.nature.com/articles/027127c0>.
Jeff Nichols, a historian at the University of Illinois at Chicago,told 
Quartz 
<https://qz.com/817354/scientists-have-been-forecasting-that-burning-fossil-fuels-will-cause-climate-change-as-early-as-1882/>that 
he's found many examples of newspaper articles published between 1883 
and 1912 that make predictions about how rising carbon dioxide levels 
alter the climate. The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and 
The Kansas City Star all published articles about rising carbon dioxide 
levels affecting the climate more than a hundred years ago, Quartz reported.
Carbon dioxide continues to make up 65 percent of globalgreenhouse gas 
emissions <https://www.livescience.com/37821-greenhouse-gases.html>, 
having increased by 90 percent between 1900 and 2010, according to 
estimates from theEnvironmental Protection Agency 
<https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data>(EPA). 
As of 2014, the topcarbon dioxide-producing 
<https://www.livescience.com/28530-carbon-dioxide-falling.html>regions 
were China,the United States 
<https://www.livescience.com/60244-what-is-clean-coal.html>, the 
European Union, India, the Russian Federation and Japan, according to 
the EPA.
https://www.livescience.com/63334-coal-affecting-climate-century-ago.html
also see
https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/rodney-and-otamatea-times-waitemata-and-kaipara-gazette/1912/8/14/7


[OK. you get a gold star]
*Pride tops guilt as a motivator for environmental decisions 
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213120429.htm>*
Date: February 13, 2018
Source: Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and 
International Affairs
Summary:
A lot of pro-environmental messages suggest that people will feel guilty 
if they don't make an effort to live more sustainably or takes steps to 
ameliorate climate change. But a recent study finds that highlighting 
the pride people will feel if they take such actions may be a better way 
to change environmental behaviors.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180213120429.htm


[Audio from WBUR]
*Climate Change Debate And Denial Dates Back Further Than You Might 
Think  9:53 
<http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2018/08/16/climate-change-history>*
Although climate change is still a relatively new phrase to many, its 
debate and denial in the U.S. stretches back a long time.
Here & Now's Robin Young talks about the history of climate change with 
Brian Balogh (@historyfellow) and Nathan Connolly (@ndbconnolly), 
historians and co-hosts of the podcast "BackStory," which is produced at 
Virginia Humanities.
This segment aired on August 16, 2018.
http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2018/08/16/climate-change-history


[Comic Relief - from the Onion]
*Sighing, Resigned Climate Scientists Say To Just Enjoy Next 20 Years As 
Much As You Can 
<https://www.theonion.com/sighing-resigned-climate-scientists-say-to-just-enjoy-1823265249>*
2/23/18
GENEVA—Attending a conference to discuss alarming new data on rising sea 
levels, a weary group of top climatologists suddenly halted their 
presentation Friday, let out a long sigh, and stated that the best thing 
anyone can do at this point is just try to enjoy the next couple decades 
as much as possible. "You know what, guys? Just go out there and have a 
good time—don't worry about any of this," said climate scientist 
Annalisa Feldt who tore in half the report she had compiled and 
suggested everyone consider traveling to a place they've never been 
before, or taking up a pastime they've always imagined might be fun. "Go 
see a show. Join an intramural sports league. Learn a musical 
instrument. Have more sex. Try skiing, if you never have, although 
that's one you'd better do within the next five years or so." 
Reiterating the need for people to live it up while they still can, the 
climatologists announced that if anyone was interested in joining them, 
they would be skipping the remainder of the conference to get completely 
shit-faced at the nearest bar.
https://www.theonion.com/sighing-resigned-climate-scientists-say-to-just-enjoy-1823265249


*This Day in Climate History - August 17, 2007 - from D.R. Tucker*
August 17, 2007: The Leonardo DiCaprio-produced documentary "The 11th 
Hour" is released in the US.
http://youtu.be/7IBG2V98IBY


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