[TheClimate.Vote] August 18, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/August 18, 2018/

[$$$]
*Most economic forecasts have a big blind spot: Climate change 
<https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/17/news/economy/climate-change-economic-forecasts/index.html>*
by Lydia DePillis - @CNNMoney
Heat waves that ground airplanes. Rising seas that drown waterfronts. 
Wildfires that consume whole cities and blanket the West Coast in smoke.
Climate change is having a real impact, not just on the environment but 
on the economy too. And a growing body of research by economists and 
climate scientists shows that extreme weather will weigh on economic 
growth even more so in the future. But almost no mainstream economic 
forecasting model takes that into account, in an omission that some 
economists say could affect the accuracy of economic predictions going 
forward.
The most recent study to quantify the economic impact of the carbon 
emissions that spur climate change was featured last week in a brief by 
the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. By evaluating the performance of 
state economies in previous years, the report found that every one 
degree increase in average summer temperatures decreases annual 
state-level output growth by between 0.15 and 0.25 percentage points.
That snowballs over time. If meaningful action isn't taken to curb 
emissions, US economic growth will be a third lower than it would 
otherwise have been by the end of this century - or sooner, if warming 
accelerates even faster than scientists currently anticipate. 
Theoretically, that means Americans will be poorer and have lower living 
standards as a result (on top of the the general disruptions to daily 
life caused by extreme weather events).
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/17/news/economy/climate-change-economic-forecasts/index.html


[Investment White Paper]
(this is not a paid advertisement, it is informed and exuberant, this is 
not investment advice)
*GMO White Paper August 2018 (pdf) 
<https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf?sfvrsn=4>*
The Race of Our Lives Revisited 
<https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf?sfvrsn=4>
Jeremy Grantham
GMO is a global investment management firm committed to providing 
sophisticated clients with superior asset management solutions. Our sole 
business is investment management and, as a private partnership, we are 
accountable only to our clients and to ourselves. We forge strong 
partnerships with our clients, managing their money as if it were our 
own and offering them honest counsel. Our deep and talented investment 
teams are highly experienced and forward-thinking, investing with 
focused expertise in a wide range of asset classes.
Investment Results: We believe that valuation-driven investing with a 
long horizon will achieve the best risk-adjusted returns.
In-Depth Analysis and Research: We combine rigorous fundamental analysis 
with innovative quantitative methods to understand the long-term drivers 
of returns.
Our Clients: We provide our clients with candid investment advice.
Read the paper 
https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf?sfvrsn=4
http://www.gmo.com/


[methane danger]
*'Abrupt thaw' of permafrost beneath lakes could significantly affect 
climate change models 
<https://phys.org/news/2018-08-abrupt-permafrost-beneath-lakes-significantly.html#jCp>*
August 16, 2018 by Jeff Richardson, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Methane released by thawing permafrost from some Arctic lakes could 
significantly accelerate climate change, according to a new University 
of Alaska Fairbanks-led study.
The study, which was published Aug. 15 in the journal Nature 
Communications, focuses on the carbon released by thawing permafrost 
beneath thermokarst lakes. Such lakes develop when warming soil melts 
ground ice, causing the surface to collapse and form pools of water. 
Those pools accelerate permafrost thaw beneath the expanding lakes, 
providing food for microbes that produce the greenhouse gases carbon 
dioxide and methane...
- - - - -
Emissions from thermokarst lakes aren't currently factored into global 
climate models because their small size makes individual lakes difficult 
to include. However, the study's authors show that these lakes are 
hotspots of permafrost carbon release. They argue that not including 
them in global climate models overlooks their feedback effect, which 
occurs when the release of greenhouse gases from permafrost increases 
warming. That feedback is significant because methane is about 30 times 
more potent than carbon dioxide as a heat-trapping gas.
Existing models currently attribute about 20 percent of the permafrost 
carbon feedback this century to methane, with the rest due to carbon 
dioxide from terrestrial soils. By including thermokarst lakes, methane 
becomes the dominant driver, responsible for 70 to 80 percent of 
permafrost carbon-caused warming this century. Adding thermokarst 
methane to the models makes the feedback's effect similar to that of 
land-use change, which is the second-largest source of manmade warming.
*Unlike shallow, gradual thawing of terrestrial permafrost, the abrupt 
thaw beneath thermokarst lakes is irreversible this century*. Even 
climate models that project only moderate warming this century will have 
to factor in their emissions, according to the study.
"You can't stop the release of carbon from these lakes once they form," 
Walter Anthony said. "We cannot get around this source of warming."
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-abrupt-permafrost-beneath-lakes-significantly.html#jCp


[subconscious danger]
*THE PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF THE CLIMATE CRISIS: A CALL TO ACTION 
<http://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org/explorations/blogs/285-the-psychological-impacts-of-the-climate-crisis-a-call-to-action>*
Written by Lise Van Susteren  Published: 12 August 2018
"Mental health professionals will see the links between extreme weather 
and climate events causing huge loss... and psychological suffering."
This article was published in BJPsych International, Volume 15, Issue 2 
May 2018, pp. 25-
Lise Van Susteren, the author is on the Advisory Board for Center for 
Health and the Global Environment; Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public 
Health; The Climate Psychiatry Alliance
A report released by the White House in April 2016 reviewed the impacts 
of climate change on human health in the USA (USGCRP, 2016). The report 
cited the injuries, deaths, disruption and displacement from 
increasingly frequent and intense heat waves, fires, droughts, floods, 
extreme weather events and rising sea level. It also reported on the 
increase in infectious diseases and - associated with pollution from 
higher temperatures - asthma, cardiovascular disease, pulmonary 
disorders, obesity and cancers. Of special interest, the report 
addressed the often-overlooked psychological impacts of climate change, 
devoting an entire chapter to carefully vetted, evidence-based data.
Mental health professionals will see the links between extreme weather 
and climate events causing huge loss of life, property, and community 
and psychological suffering. Individual and institutional avoidance of 
this exceedingly painful topic is rampant.
*An overview of the mental health impacts in this report may be summed 
up as follows: humanity is already suffering - and will increasingly 
suffer - varying degrees and types of psychological harm as 
climate-related disasters alter how and where we live, and, in some 
cases, if we live*. Many people will not experience the effects directly 
but will suffer vicariously in empathic identification with the victims. 
The cumulative toll of repeated events will be especially challenging. 
Many will suffer at the thought of what they fear is coming and indeed 
what they are being told is coming. A full range of psychological 
disorders is emerging, and increased incidence of depression, anxiety, 
and trauma-related conditions may be expected. Some of these conditions 
will become chronic...
- - - -
The White House report was expressly envisioned as a first step. *Below 
are amplifications and additions* that build on the report...

    *Aggression*
    The report cites the link between extreme climate and weather events
    to an increase in aggression. Not included in the report were the
    precise numbers:
    For each standard deviation of increased temperature and change in
    rainfall, society can expect a 4% increase in conflict between
    individuals and a 14% increase in conflict between groups (Hsiang et
    al, 2013).
    Behind the numbers lie more assaults, murder, suicides, domestic
    violence - including child abuse, as well as increasing global
    unrest because these findings are valid for all ethnicities and
    across every region.

    *Cognition*
    Exposing workers to increasing levels of carbon dioxide has a major
    impact on cognitive functioning. Testing at concentrations to which
    Americans are frequently exposed indoors shows the most serious
    decline in our ability to think strategically, to use information
    and to respond to a crisis (Datz, 2015).

    *Air quality*
    Smog from pollution forms more quickly at higher temperatures. It is
    linked to multiple mental and physical health problems:
    The American Psychological Association reported children exposed to
    small particles of chemicals in the air are more likely to have
    symptoms of anxiety or depression (Weir, 2012).
    Emergency room visits for anxiety and suicide threats are
    significantly higher on days with poor air quality (Szyszkowicz et
    al, 2010).
    Polluted air causes neuro-inflammation that is linked to
    neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's
    disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (Frank-Cannon et al, 2009;
    Calderón-Garcidueñas et al, 2015). It is also linked to psychiatric
    disorders (Lundberg, 1996; Oudin et al, 2016).
    *
    **'Not everything that counts can be counted'*
    The authors of the report confined themselves to the psychological
    impacts from climate change that were measurable. As important as
    these are, much of the psychological harm comes from complex
    stressors and is hard to measure. But it is these sweeping
    psychological effects, inchoate though they may be, from the
    massive-scale disruptions that are the guts of the psychological
    toll and show why immediate action is needed and why alarm is so
    legitimate.
    Predictions of upstream triggers show that unless immediate major
    changes are made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, irreversible
    catastrophes will be set in motion:
    The Middle East, experts have predicted, may be uninhabitable by the
    end of the century (Funkhouser, 2016).
    As many as 50% of all living species may be on the road to
    extinction by mid-century (Thomas et al, 2004).
    *
    **Refugee crisis*
    Of all the traumatic consequences of climate change, one of the most
    dramatic is the prediction that hundreds of millions of refugees
    will soon be searching for safety (Vaughan, 2016). Antonio Guterres,
    the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, has declared that
    we 'no longer have the resources … to pick up the pieces …' (Welsh,
    2015).

*Professional opportunities*
The canon of ethics of many organizations, including the American 
Psychiatric Association, declares that we have a responsibility to 
recognise the need to protect public health (American Medical 
Association, 1995-2016).
Mental health professionals are well positioned to challenge denial, 
influence public policy and care for the victims of climate disasters 
because of our clinical training and expertise. We can address 
psychological mechanisms of defence and harmful behaviour and use our 
skills in treating the impacts of illness and injury.
This urgent call to action is further conveyed by the choices we make to 
live sustainably in our professional and personal lives - because we 
also lead by example.
http://www.climatepsychologyalliance.org/explorations/blogs/285-the-psychological-impacts-of-the-climate-crisis-a-call-to-action


[more heat, more infection]
*Key factor may be missing from models that predict disease outbreaks 
from climate change 
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180816090430.htm>*
Parasites that incubate at higher temperatures cause stronger infections 
in future hosts, creating a climate 'echo effect' across generations of 
pathogens
A study recently published in the journal Ecology has found that 
pathogens that grow inside organisms at higher temperatures produce 
offspring that cause higher rates of infection compared to pathogens 
that grow inside organisms at lower temperatures. This suggests that 
climate can cause an "echo effect" in future pathogens, ultimately 
making them more infectious.
"It's well known that environment can affect offspring across 
generations in plants and animals," said Spencer Hall, a professor in 
the IU Bloomington College of Arts and Sciences' Department of Biology, 
who is senior author on the study. "This study is one of the first to 
suggest that similar cross-generational effects occur in parasites and 
pathogens."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180816090430.htm


[Comic Danger - comic relief from the Onion]
*Climatologists Say Humanity's Best Hope Is Hurricanes Spinning In 
Different Directions And Canceling Each Other Out 
<https://www.theonion.com/climatologists-say-humanity-s-best-hope-is-hurricanes-s-1819580400>*
9/20/17 The Onion
SILVER SPRING, MD-Warning that the planet would continue to experience 
progressively more destructive storms caused by climate change, a group 
of the nation's leading climatologists said Wednesday that humanity's 
best hope now is for hurricanes spinning in opposite directions to 
cancel each other out. "At this point, we believe that the last, best 
hope for the human race is for two hurricanes whirling in opposite 
directions at exactly the same speed to neutralize each other," said 
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration researcher Justin Rhee, 
adding that if one hurricane spinning clockwise and another spinning 
counterclockwise collided in the Gulf of Mexico, they could 
theoretically nullify each other and result in calm, clear skies. 
"According to our research, the mutual destruction of two mirror-image 
Category 5 storms with winds of 170 mph is really our only hope. Failing 
that, we'd have to pray that two hurricanes spinning in the same 
direction would actually unite and begin spinning so fast that they fly 
off the earth entirely." Rhee went on to say that unfortunately, it is 
not outside the realm of possibility for two hurricanes to double their 
magnitude by stacking on top of each other, or for one hurricane to hurl 
the other a thousand miles inland to wreak havoc on the Midwest.
https://www.theonion.com/climatologists-say-humanity-s-best-hope-is-hurricanes-s-1819580400


*This Day in Climate History - August 18, 2018 
<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/climate/trump-clean-power-rollback.html> 
- from D.R. Tucker*
August 18, 2018:
The New York Times reports:
"The Trump administration next week plans to formally propose a vast 
overhaul of climate change regulations that would allow individual 
states to decide how, or even whether, to curb carbon dioxide emissions 
from coal plants, according to a summary of the plan and details 
provided by three people who have seen the full proposal.
"The plan would also relax pollution rules for power plants that need 
upgrades. That, combined with allowing states to set their own rules, 
creates a serious risk that emissions, which had been falling, could 
start to rise again, according to environmentalists.
"The proposal, which President Trump is expected to highlight Tuesday at 
a rally in West Virginia, amounts to the administration's strongest and 
broadest effort yet to address what the president has long described as 
a regulatory 'war on coal.' It would considerably weaken what is known 
as the Clean Power Plan, former President Barack Obama's signature 
regulation for cutting planet-warming emissions at coal-fired plants.
"That rule, crafted as the United States prepared to enter into the 2015 
Paris Agreement on global warming, was the first federal 
carbon-pollution restriction for power plants. In 2016, the Supreme 
Court temporarily blocked the regulation from taking effect while a 
federal court heard arguments from a coalition of coal states that sued 
to block the rule. It remains suspended."
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/climate/trump-clean-power-rollback.html


/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
//Archive of Daily Global Warming News 
<https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/2017-October/date.html> 
//
/https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote//
///
///To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe 
<mailto:subscribe at theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request> 
/to news digest. /

        *** Privacy and Security: * This is a text-only mailing that
        carries no images which may originate from remote servers.
        Text-only messages provide greater privacy to the receiver and
        sender.
        By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain must be used for
        democratic and election purposes and cannot be used for
        commercial purposes.
        To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote with subject: 
        subscribe,  To Unsubscribe, subject: unsubscribe
        Also youmay subscribe/unsubscribe at
        https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
        Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Paulifor
        http://TheClimate.Vote delivering succinct information for
        citizens and responsible governments of all levels.   List
        membership is confidential and records are scrupulously
        restricted to this mailing list.

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/attachments/20180818/2bf70fdf/attachment.html>