[TheClimate.Vote] February 20, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Feb 20 09:17:03 EST 2018
/February 20, 2018/
*
Action on Climate Change Advances in Oregon
<https://www.nrdc.org/experts/noah-long/action-climate-change-advances-oregon>*
Two bills climate action bills advanced in the Oregon legislature this
past week, passing their respective policy committees in the state
Senate and House.
While dismal news just keeps pouring out of the nation's capital on
climate change, states are increasingly showing momentum to lead the
way. Trump and Pruitt are on a collision course with science and dead
set on putting America last in clean energy innovation, giving away
public lands and waters to fossil fuel companies and doing the bidding
of their dirty energy campaign donors. But states like Oregon can rise
to the occasion to keep clean energy momentum alive...
Of course, states are not immune to anti-climate political donors and
recalcitrant polluters hoping to prevent solutions to climate change. In
Oregon the major business, transportation and gasoline/diesel interests
have dug in to hold up movement of the bill. The state's largest
electric utility, Portland General Electric, has been late to engage,
though they are still at least talking with proponents; while Pacificorp
is opposing outright- with a barrage of changing rationalizations for
opposition.
If action gets kicked down the road to next year's legislature, the
blame will go to the irresponsible and unconstructive polluter resistance.
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/noah-long/action-climate-change-advances-oregon
[Image Map]
*Sea Level Rise is Accelerating
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php>*
The acceleration has been driven mainly by increased ice melting in
Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the potential to double the total
sea level rise projected by 2100.
Global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, according
to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data.
This acceleration has been driven mainly by increased ice melting in
Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the potential to double the total
sea level rise projected by 2100, according to lead author Steve Nerem,
a scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental
Sciences (CIRES) and the University of Colorado.
If things continue to change at the observed pace, sea level will rise
65 centimeters (26 inches) by 2100, enough to cause significant problems
for coastal cities. The team - comprised of scientists from NASA's
Goddard Space Flight Center, the University of Colorado, the University
of South Florida, and Old Dominion University - recently published their
work in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
"This is almost certainly a conservative estimate," said Nerem, who is a
member of NASA's Sea Level Change team. "Our extrapolation assumes that
sea level continues to change in the future as it has over the last 25
years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the ice sheets today,
that is not likely."..
The rate of sea level rise has risen from about 2.5 millimeters (0.1
inch) per year in the 1990s to about 3.4 millimeters (0.13 inches) per
year today.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php
[118 degrees F]
*Climate change spells turbulent times ahead for air travel
<https://ensia.com/features/air-travel/>*
Fred Pearce
Rising tides, icy air, melting permafrost and air that is too hot for
take-off are challenging aviation as the world warms.
Phoenix gets hot. But not usually as hot as last June, when the mercury
at the airport one day soared above 48C. That exceeded the maximum
operating temperature for several aircraft ready for take-off. They
didn't fly. More than 50 flights were cancelled or rerouted...
Thanks to climate change, soon 48C [/118 degrees F/] may not seem so
unusual...
Why is heat a problem for planes? In a word: lift.
Lift is the upward force created by diverting air around wings as an
aircraft moves down the runway. It is harder to achieve when the air is
scorching hot, because hot air is thinner than cold air. The
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) warned in 2016 that as
a result, higher temperatures "could have severe consequences for
aircraft take-off performance."
Aircraft will need to jettison passengers, cargo or fuel to get the same
lift on a hot day, raising costs and requiring more flights.
"Weight restrictions are likely to have the most effect on long-haul
flights, which often take off near the airplane's maximum weight," says
Ethan Coffel, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University. "Possible
adaptations include rescheduling flights to cooler times of the day or
lengthening runways."..
Once in the air, flying will feel different too, especially in and
around the jet stream, for instance crossing the Atlantic...
Flying east is becoming quicker in the stronger winds that result, but
flying west will be slower...
Flights will also be bumpier, says Williams. "Stronger winds will
increase the amount of shear in the jet stream," he says. Shear creates
turbulence - particularly what is called "clear-air turbulence," which
occurs away from storm clouds and is hard for pilots to spot and fly
round. "The increase in clean-air turbulence has the potential to be
quite disruptive," says Williams. In other words, get used to keeping
your seatbelts fastened...
Climate change will also increase the number and intensity of
thunderstorms, and push them upward into cruising altitudes. That will
make flying trickier and could dramatically increase the risk of one of
the most worrying upper-air phenomena for pilots: high-altitude icing...
Some of the most expensive climate-change problems for the aviation
industry will be on the ground...
Take Iqaluit airport in northern Canada. The permafrost on which it was
built is melting. The runway and taxiway have had to be resurfaced as a
result. And the melting is deepening...
But a more frequent problem is likely to be flooding. Many airports are
built on flat, low-lying land, by the ocean or in drained swamps. Such
places can be hard to drain and vulnerable to rising sea levels and more
intense storms...
Internationally, there is also rising concern. The scientific consensus
is that sea-level rise probably won't be more than 1 meter (3 feet) this
century. But airport authorities believe that they must adapt to much
higher waters during storm surges such as that experienced at LaGuardia.
https://ensia.com/features/air-travel/
[Cape Town drought]
*Day Zero: Lessons from Cape Town's crisis
<https://thebulletin.org/day-zero-lessons-cape-towns-crisis11519>*
Interview with water expert Peter Gleick on the Cape Town water crisis
and the role of climate change on the crisis.
*Peter Gleick: *For the first time, a major city is on the verge of
literally turning off its municipal water supply system because of a
lack of water...
It's unprecedented, and I think it's a little bit scary.
*Dan Drollette: *Is it a case of human nature, of people taking it for
granted that the water will always be there - just like air - and no one
needs to worry about it?...
*Peter Gleick:* It's hard to say that any particular water crisis is X
percent one or the other of any of those factors. We know that all of
those factors are in play here. We know that Cape Town is at the limits
of getting any new supply - that there is no more water. They're
overtapping their rivers. They're overpumping groundwater. We know that
population continues to grow and demands for water continue to grow. We
know that climate change is happening. We know the current drought is
showing the influence of higher temperatures - which increases demand
for water and the loss of water from soils and reservoirs - which in
turn worsens the severity of the drought that they're experiencing...
We know that higher temperatures increase the demand for water at the
same time that they increase the loss of water from the reservoirs that
serve Cape Town. We also know worldwide that climate change is
influencing extreme events. I think that's going to turn out to be
evident here...
I am more worried about places like Jakarta, or Tehran, or places in the
developing world where they don't have alternatives, where they don't
have the economic ability to use treated wastewater or to desalinate
water, and where they don't have the management ability to implement
smart and effective conservation programs...
I would argue there's nothing special about Cape Town. I think there
are many parts of the world that are increasingly likely to face their
own Zero Days if we don't improve the way we deal with water.
https://thebulletin.org/day-zero-lessons-cape-towns-crisis11519
[borders and carbon]
*A think piece titled /Our Alarming Climate Crisis Demands Border
Adjustments Now, /by John Odell, has been published by the International
Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development.
<https://www.ictsd.org/themes/climate-and-energy/research/our-alarming-climate-crisis-demands-border-adjustments-now>*
Executive summary:
The global climate crisis is now an emergency. Concentrations of
atmospheric greenhouse gases have continued rising at record rates and
climate damage is intensifying across the planet. The 2015 pledges
governments made as part of the historic Paris agreement, even if all
were implemented, fell far short of what is needed to stabilize the
climate. Then last year the Trump Administration threw US national
policy into reverse gear. This could lead other states to drag their
own feet, possibly turning the Paris regime into a dead letter. Much
more effective policy response is extremely urgent. While efforts at
multilateral cooperation should continue, it is now too late to delay
unilateral trade measures any longer.
It is time for each country that imposes positive net taxes on fossil
fuel use at home to extend the same treatment to all goods the country
imports, unilaterally if necessary. It should set a default carbon
surcharge on an imported product equal to net fossil energy taxes (taxes
minus subsidies) applied on a competing home good throughout its supply
chain. The government should deduct from this surcharge for a given
shipment to the extent that costs due to carbon energy taxes, or other
measures that are comparable in effectiveness in reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, have already been paid on the imported good in any
jurisdiction throughout its own supply chain.^ All exports from
countries where CO2 emissions per capita are low should be exempt. The
goal is to help people in high-polluting countries make their national
mitigation policies more effective.
This paper sketches a preliminary illustration of such a policy. An
eventual complete plan should satisfy three principles. Border carbon
adjustments should aim for consistency with the World Trade
Organization's rules. The measures should impose the smallest possible
additional transaction costs on domestic and international trade. Third,
these border adjustments should exempt all exports from the dozens of
poor and middle-income countries whose CO2 emissions per capita are
low. The paper concludes by addressing several possible objections.
Responding to an obvious one: paradoxically, trade itself in the long
term needs carefully limited trade restrictions like these in the short
term.
For the paper, please click here
<https://www.ictsd.org/themes/climate-and-energy/research/our-alarming-climate-crisis-demands-border-adjustments-now>.
Apologies for any duplication and thank you for your consideration.
John Odell
Professor Emeritus of International Relations University of Southern
California
https://www.ictsd.org/themes/climate-and-energy/research/our-alarming-climate-crisis-demands-border-adjustments-now
-
[Climate migrations]
*The two borderless challenges of our time: Migration and climate change
<https://us6.campaign-archive.com/?e=&u=9283ff78aa53cccd2800739dc&id=21d82c41a6>*
Civil society response to the Zero Draft of the UN´s Global Compact for
Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration
There are over a quarter billion migrants and refugees in the world.
Over 5,000 died last year on their dangerous journeys. The United
Nations has been moved to act.
Governments are currently negotiating a Global Compact on Safe, Orderly
and Regular Migration. The agreement is meant to protect the rights of
those displaced and help address the root economic, environmental and
social drivers that are compelling people to leave their communities and
countries.
Last week, the UN released its draft agreement and will have until
December to negotiate the final details. A key area where the document
falls short is on commitments to tackle the primary causes of migration.
A stated aim of the Global Compact is to "mitigate the adverse drivers
and structural factors that hinder people from building and maintaining
sustainable livelihoods in their countries of origin". However, the
current text lacks actionable commitments to control the numerous
man-made forces underlying global mass migration.
The reasons are different for every migrant and diaspora, but we know
that natural disasters are the number one cause of internal and
international displacement. With rising sea levels, desertification and
extreme weather events, climate action must be a part of any meaningful
agreement.
"Climate induced displacement is upon us. Coastal communities are being
evacuated and relocated the world over." Said Emele Duituturaga,
Executive Director of the Pacific Islands Association of Non
Governmental Organisations. "Here in sea locked countries of the Pacific
Ocean, disappearance of our island homes is imminent".
To protect the growing number of climate migrants, a necessary starting
place for the compact is to reaffirm the importance of the Paris
Climate Change Agreement and accelerate efforts to limit global average
temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C, instead of the more conservative and
ambiguous target to keep the world "well below" 2 degrees C above
pre-industrial levels. Missing just one of these targets will lead to
millions of people being displaced. The United Nations´ climate science
panel (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) gauges that the
half a degree gap in warming "amounts to a greater likelihood of
drought, flooding, resource depletion, conflict and forced migration".
Climate models show us that the additional 0.5 degrees C would further
raise sea levels by 10 centimeters and cut crop yields by half across
the tropics.
From Fiji to Trinidad and Tobago, from Bangladesh to Morocco, civil
society groups are calling on their governments to make climate
mitigation a fundamental pillar of the Global Compact on Migration. Over
400 civil society groups at International Civil Society Week (Fiji,
December) signed a joint declaration on climate induced displacement,
outlining key demands for the Global Compact. Among other
recommendations, we are urging the UN to address the causes and
consequences of migration, including:
*Recognize that communities must have key human rights like food, water,
housing and health protected to reduce the necessity of migration.*
*Commit to protect those who are most vulnerable to climate displacement.*
*Ensure that those most vulnerable to climate displacement are able to
participate in the design and governance of the Global Compact.*
The upcoming multi-stakeholder consultations on 21 February and 21 May
at UN Headquarters will provide civil society with the opportunity to
raise the ambition of the Global Compact and to help ensure meaningful
action is taken to reduce the man-made causes of migration and
incorporate key recommendations put forth in the joint civil society
declaration.
https://us6.campaign-archive.com/?e=&u=9283ff78aa53cccd2800739dc&id=21d82c41a6
[hot to cold to hot]
*US Warmhole
<https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/20/us-warmhole/#more-9651>*
Posted on February 20, 2018
Not all places on earth are experiencing global warming at the same
rate. Let's consider the U.S., the "lower 48 states." Taking data from
NOAA for the 344 climate divisions in this region, and computing the
linear trend rate for each, we can see differences between different
parts of the USA, with red dots for warming and blue for cooling, larger
dots faster and smaller dots more slowly:
https://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/usarate.jpg?w=500&h=332
The most notable feature is that in the southeastern US there's a region
which hasn't warmed nearly as much as the rest of the country. There are
even places which have shown slight cooling, most notably in Alabama and
Mississippi.
The part of the U.S. that has warmed far less (if at all) has been
dubbed the "US warming hole." I'll call it the "warmhole" (just because
I like the name). It covers a larger area than just Alabama and
Mississippi. A number of papers over the last several years have
investigated why this might be.
Meehl et al. (2012, J. Climate, 25, 6394) begin their abstract thus:
A linear trend calculated for observed annual mean surface air
temperatures over the United States for the second-half of the
twentieth century shows a slight cooling over the southeastern part
of the country, the so-called warming hole, while temperatures over
the rest of the country rose significantly.
The impression is that there is a small warming rate, especially during
the second half of the 20th century. I'm not so sure that's actually the
case. Let's look at the southeast, as defined by NOAA; here's the data
for mean temperature (note: I've converted from degrees F to degrees C,
and these are temperature anomalies):
https://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/tg_annual.jpg?w=500&h=332...
Most notable is the size of the apparent shift. For summer it's a sudden
drop of about -0.63 degrees C, and the estimated size is about the same
for spring (-0.56 degrees C) and autumn (-0.58 degrees C), but they
don't reach statistical significance due to the higher variance of those
seasons' temperature. But for winter, the drop in 1958 is a whopping
-2.01 degrees C, about three times as large as for any other season...
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/20/us-warmhole/#more-9651
<http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/>*This
Day in Climate History February 20, 2013
<http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/><http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/>
- from D.R. Tucker*
February 20, 2013:
In his first major policy speech as Secretary of State, John Kerry
directly addresses the risks of climate change.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqJt_WSGoVI
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/
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