[TheClimate.Vote] February 20, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Richard Pauli richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Feb 20 09:17:03 EST 2018


/February 20, 2018/
*
Action on Climate Change Advances in Oregon 
<https://www.nrdc.org/experts/noah-long/action-climate-change-advances-oregon>*
Two bills climate action bills advanced in the Oregon legislature this 
past week, passing their respective policy committees in the state 
Senate and House.
While dismal news just keeps pouring out of the nation's capital on 
climate change, states are increasingly showing momentum to lead the 
way. Trump and Pruitt are on a collision course with science and dead 
set on putting America last in clean energy innovation, giving away 
public lands and waters to fossil fuel companies and doing the bidding 
of their dirty energy campaign donors. But states like Oregon can rise 
to the occasion to keep clean energy momentum alive...
Of course, states are not immune to anti-climate political donors and 
recalcitrant polluters hoping to prevent solutions to climate change. In 
Oregon the major business, transportation and gasoline/diesel interests 
have dug in to hold up movement of the bill.  The state's largest 
electric utility, Portland General Electric, has been late to engage, 
though they are still at least talking with proponents; while Pacificorp 
is opposing outright- with a barrage of changing rationalizations for 
opposition.
If action gets kicked down the road to next year's legislature, the 
blame will go to the irresponsible and unconstructive polluter resistance.
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/noah-long/action-climate-change-advances-oregon


[Image Map]
*Sea Level Rise is Accelerating 
<https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php>*
The acceleration has been driven mainly by increased ice melting in 
Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the potential to double the total 
sea level rise projected by 2100.
Global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, according 
to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data. 
This acceleration has been driven mainly by increased ice melting in 
Greenland and Antarctica, and it has the potential to double the total 
sea level rise projected by 2100, according to lead author Steve Nerem, 
a scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental 
Sciences (CIRES) and the University of Colorado.
If things continue to change at the observed pace, sea level will rise 
65 centimeters (26 inches) by 2100, enough to cause significant problems 
for coastal cities. The team - comprised of scientists from NASA's 
Goddard Space Flight Center, the University of Colorado, the University 
of South Florida, and Old Dominion University - recently published their 
work in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
"This is almost certainly a conservative estimate," said Nerem, who is a 
member of NASA's Sea Level Change team. "Our extrapolation assumes that 
sea level continues to change in the future as it has over the last 25 
years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the ice sheets today, 
that is not likely."..
The rate of sea level rise has risen from about 2.5 millimeters (0.1 
inch) per year in the 1990s to about 3.4 millimeters (0.13 inches) per 
year today.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php


[118 degrees F]
*Climate change spells turbulent times ahead for air travel 
<https://ensia.com/features/air-travel/>*
Fred Pearce
Rising tides, icy air, melting permafrost and air that is too hot for 
take-off are challenging aviation as the world warms.
Phoenix gets hot. But not usually as hot as last June, when the mercury 
at the airport one day soared above 48C. That exceeded the maximum 
operating temperature for several aircraft ready for take-off. They 
didn't fly. More than 50 flights were cancelled or rerouted...
Thanks to climate change, soon 48C [/118 degrees F/] may not seem so 
unusual...
Why is heat a problem for planes? In a word: lift.
Lift is the upward force created by diverting air around wings as an 
aircraft moves down the runway. It is harder to achieve when the air is 
scorching hot, because hot air is thinner than cold air. The 
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) warned in 2016 that as 
a result, higher temperatures "could have severe consequences for 
aircraft take-off performance."
Aircraft will need to jettison passengers, cargo or fuel to get the same 
lift on a hot day, raising costs and requiring more flights.
"Weight restrictions are likely to have the most effect on long-haul 
flights, which often take off near the airplane's maximum weight," says 
Ethan Coffel, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University. "Possible 
adaptations include rescheduling flights to cooler times of the day or 
lengthening runways."..
Once in the air, flying will feel different too, especially in and 
around the jet stream, for instance crossing the Atlantic...
Flying east is becoming quicker in the stronger winds that result, but 
flying west will be slower...
Flights will also be bumpier, says Williams. "Stronger winds will 
increase the amount of shear in the jet stream," he says. Shear creates 
turbulence  -  particularly what is called "clear-air turbulence," which 
occurs away from storm clouds and is hard for pilots to spot and fly 
round. "The increase in clean-air turbulence has the potential to be 
quite disruptive," says Williams. In other words, get used to keeping 
your seatbelts fastened...
Climate change will also increase the number and intensity of 
thunderstorms, and push them upward into cruising altitudes. That will 
make flying trickier and could dramatically increase the risk of one of 
the most worrying upper-air phenomena for pilots: high-altitude icing...
Some of the most expensive climate-change problems for the aviation 
industry will be on the ground...
Take Iqaluit airport in northern Canada. The permafrost on which it was 
built is melting. The runway and taxiway have had to be resurfaced as a 
result. And the melting is deepening...
But a more frequent problem is likely to be flooding. Many airports are 
built on flat, low-lying land, by the ocean or in drained swamps. Such 
places can be hard to drain and vulnerable to rising sea levels and more 
intense storms...
Internationally, there is also rising concern. The scientific consensus 
is that sea-level rise probably won't be more than 1 meter (3 feet) this 
century. But airport authorities believe that they must adapt to much 
higher waters during storm surges such as that experienced at LaGuardia.
https://ensia.com/features/air-travel/


[Cape Town drought]
*Day Zero: Lessons from Cape Town's crisis 
<https://thebulletin.org/day-zero-lessons-cape-towns-crisis11519>*
Interview with water expert Peter Gleick on the Cape Town water crisis 
and the role of climate change on the crisis.
*Peter Gleick: *For the first time, a major city is on the verge of 
literally turning off its municipal water supply system because of a 
lack of water...
It's unprecedented, and I think it's a little bit scary.
*Dan Drollette: *Is it a case of human nature, of people taking it for 
granted that the water will always be there - just like air - and no one 
needs to worry about it?...
*Peter Gleick:* It's hard to say that any particular water crisis is X 
percent one or the other of any of those factors. We know that all of 
those factors are in play here. We know that Cape Town is at the limits 
of getting any new supply - that there is no more water. They're 
overtapping their rivers. They're overpumping groundwater. We know that 
population continues to grow and demands for water continue to grow. We 
know that climate change is happening. We know the current drought is 
showing the influence of higher temperatures - which increases demand 
for water and the loss of water from soils and reservoirs - which in 
turn worsens the severity of the drought that they're experiencing...
We know that higher temperatures increase the demand for water at the 
same time that they increase the loss of water from the reservoirs that 
serve Cape Town. We also know worldwide that climate change is 
influencing extreme events. I think that's going to turn out to be 
evident here...
I am more worried about places like Jakarta, or Tehran, or places in the 
developing world where they don't have alternatives, where they don't 
have the economic ability to use treated wastewater or to desalinate 
water, and where they don't have the management ability to implement 
smart and effective conservation programs...
  I would argue there's nothing special about Cape Town. I think there 
are many parts of the world that are increasingly likely to face their 
own Zero Days if we don't improve the way we deal with water.
https://thebulletin.org/day-zero-lessons-cape-towns-crisis11519


[borders and carbon]
*A think piece titled /Our Alarming Climate Crisis Demands Border 
Adjustments Now, /by John Odell, has been published by the International 
Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development. 
<https://www.ictsd.org/themes/climate-and-energy/research/our-alarming-climate-crisis-demands-border-adjustments-now>*
   Executive summary:
The global climate crisis is now an emergency.  Concentrations of 
atmospheric greenhouse gases have continued rising at record rates and 
climate damage is intensifying across the planet.  The 2015 pledges 
governments made as part of the historic Paris agreement, even if all 
were implemented, fell far short of what is needed to stabilize the 
climate.  Then last year the Trump Administration threw US national 
policy into reverse gear.  This could lead other states to drag their 
own feet, possibly turning the Paris regime into a dead letter.  Much 
more effective policy response is extremely urgent. While efforts at 
multilateral cooperation should continue, it is now too late to delay 
unilateral trade measures any longer.
It is time for each country that imposes positive net taxes on fossil 
fuel use at home to extend the same treatment to all goods the country 
imports, unilaterally if necessary.  It should set a default carbon 
surcharge on an imported product equal to net fossil energy taxes (taxes 
minus subsidies) applied on a competing home good throughout its supply 
chain.  The government should deduct from this surcharge for a given 
shipment to the extent that costs due to carbon energy taxes, or other 
measures that are comparable in effectiveness in reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, have already been paid on the imported good in any 
jurisdiction throughout its own supply chain.^  All exports from 
countries where CO2 emissions per capita are low should be exempt.  The 
goal is to help people in high-polluting countries make their national 
mitigation policies more effective.
This paper sketches a preliminary illustration of such a policy.  An 
eventual complete plan should satisfy three principles.   Border carbon 
adjustments should aim for consistency with the World Trade 
Organization's rules.   The measures should impose the smallest possible 
additional transaction costs on domestic and international trade. Third, 
these border adjustments should exempt all exports from the dozens of 
poor and middle-income countries whose CO2 emissions per capita are 
low.  The paper concludes by addressing several possible objections.  
Responding to an obvious one: paradoxically, trade itself in the long 
term needs carefully limited trade restrictions like these in the short 
term.
For the paper, please click here 
<https://www.ictsd.org/themes/climate-and-energy/research/our-alarming-climate-crisis-demands-border-adjustments-now>. 
Apologies for any duplication and thank you for your consideration.
John Odell
Professor Emeritus of International Relations University of Southern 
California
https://www.ictsd.org/themes/climate-and-energy/research/our-alarming-climate-crisis-demands-border-adjustments-now
-
[Climate migrations]
*The two borderless challenges of our time: Migration and climate change 
<https://us6.campaign-archive.com/?e=&u=9283ff78aa53cccd2800739dc&id=21d82c41a6>*
Civil society response to the Zero Draft of the UN´s Global Compact for 
Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration
There are over a quarter billion migrants and refugees in the world. 
Over 5,000 died last year on their dangerous journeys. The United 
Nations has been moved to act.
Governments are currently negotiating a Global Compact on Safe, Orderly 
and Regular Migration. The agreement is meant to protect the rights of 
those displaced and help address the root economic, environmental and 
social drivers that are compelling people to leave their communities and 
countries.
Last week, the UN released its draft agreement and will have until 
December to negotiate the final details. A key area where the document 
falls short is on commitments to tackle the primary causes of migration. 
A stated aim of the Global Compact is to "mitigate the adverse drivers 
and structural factors that hinder people from building and maintaining 
sustainable livelihoods in their countries of origin". However, the 
current text lacks actionable commitments to control the numerous 
man-made forces underlying global mass migration.
The reasons are different for every migrant and diaspora, but we know 
that natural disasters are the number one cause of internal and 
international displacement. With rising sea levels, desertification and 
extreme weather events, climate action must be a part of any meaningful 
agreement.
"Climate induced displacement is upon us. Coastal communities are being 
evacuated and relocated the world over." Said Emele Duituturaga, 
Executive Director of the Pacific Islands Association of Non 
Governmental Organisations. "Here in sea locked countries of the Pacific 
Ocean, disappearance of our island homes is imminent".
To protect the growing number of climate migrants, a necessary starting 
place for the compact is to  reaffirm the importance of the Paris 
Climate Change Agreement and accelerate efforts to limit global average 
temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C, instead of the more conservative and 
ambiguous target to keep the world "well below" 2 degrees C above 
pre-industrial levels. Missing just one of these targets will lead to 
millions of people being displaced.  The United Nations´ climate science 
panel (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) gauges that the 
half a degree gap in warming "amounts to a greater likelihood of 
drought, flooding, resource depletion, conflict and forced migration". 
Climate models show us that the additional 0.5 degrees C would  further 
raise sea levels by 10 centimeters and cut crop yields by half across 
the tropics.
 From Fiji to Trinidad and Tobago, from Bangladesh to Morocco, civil 
society groups are calling on their governments to make climate 
mitigation a fundamental pillar of the Global Compact on Migration. Over 
400 civil society groups at International Civil Society Week (Fiji, 
December) signed a joint declaration on climate induced displacement,  
outlining key demands for the Global Compact. Among other 
recommendations, we are urging the UN to address the causes and 
consequences of migration, including:
*Recognize that communities must have key human rights like food, water, 
housing and health protected to reduce the necessity of migration.*
*Commit to protect those who are most vulnerable to climate displacement.*
*Ensure that those most vulnerable to climate displacement are able to 
participate in the design and governance of the Global Compact.*
The upcoming multi-stakeholder consultations on 21 February and 21 May 
at UN Headquarters will provide civil society with the opportunity to 
raise the ambition of the Global Compact and to help ensure meaningful 
action is taken to reduce the man-made causes of migration and 
incorporate key recommendations put forth in the joint civil society 
declaration.
https://us6.campaign-archive.com/?e=&u=9283ff78aa53cccd2800739dc&id=21d82c41a6


[hot to cold to hot]
*US Warmhole 
<https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/20/us-warmhole/#more-9651>*
Posted on February 20, 2018
Not all places on earth are experiencing global warming at the same 
rate. Let's consider the U.S., the "lower 48 states." Taking data from 
NOAA for the 344 climate divisions in this region, and computing the 
linear trend rate for each, we can see differences between different 
parts of the USA, with red dots for warming and blue for cooling, larger 
dots faster and smaller dots more slowly: 
https://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/usarate.jpg?w=500&h=332
The most notable feature is that in the southeastern US there's a region 
which hasn't warmed nearly as much as the rest of the country. There are 
even places which have shown slight cooling, most notably in Alabama and 
Mississippi.
The part of the U.S. that has warmed far less (if at all) has been 
dubbed the "US warming hole." I'll call it the "warmhole" (just because 
I like the name). It covers a larger area than just Alabama and 
Mississippi. A number of papers over the last several years have 
investigated why this might be.
Meehl et al. (2012, J. Climate, 25, 6394) begin their abstract thus:

    A linear trend calculated for observed annual mean surface air
    temperatures over the United States for the second-half of the
    twentieth century shows a slight cooling over the southeastern part
    of the country, the so-called warming hole, while temperatures over
    the rest of the country rose significantly.

The impression is that there is a small warming rate, especially during 
the second half of the 20th century. I'm not so sure that's actually the 
case. Let's look at the southeast, as defined by NOAA; here's the data 
for mean temperature (note: I've converted from degrees F to  degrees C, 
and these are temperature anomalies): 
https://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/tg_annual.jpg?w=500&h=332...
Most notable is the size of the apparent shift. For summer it's a sudden 
drop of about -0.63 degrees C, and the estimated size is about the same 
for spring (-0.56 degrees C) and autumn (-0.58 degrees C), but they 
don't reach statistical significance due to the higher variance of those 
seasons' temperature. But for winter, the drop in 1958 is a whopping 
-2.01 degrees C, about three times as large as for any other season...
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/02/20/us-warmhole/#more-9651


<http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/>*This 
Day in Climate History February 20, 2013 
<http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/><http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/> 
-  from D.R. Tucker*
February 20, 2013:
  In his first major policy speech as Secretary of State, John Kerry 
directly addresses the risks of climate change.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqJt_WSGoVI
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/21/1620201/speech-kerry-climate-hawk-courage-reject-dirty-keystone-xl-pipeline/

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