[TheClimate.Vote] January 3, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Jan 3 08:24:35 EST 2018
/January 3, 2018/
[winter storm]
*'Bomb cyclone' to blast East Coast before polar vortex uncorks
tremendous cold late this week
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/02/monster-storm-to-blast-east-coast-before-polar-vortex-uncorks-tremendous-cold-late-this-week/>*
Forecasters are expecting the storm to become a so-called "bomb cyclone"
because its pressure is predicted to fall so fast, an indicator of
explosive strengthening. The storm could rank as the most intense over
the waters east of New England in decades at this time of year. While
blizzard conditions could paste some coastal areas, the most extreme
conditions will remain well out over the ocean.
"All day Thursday meteorologists are going to be glued to the new
GOES-East satellite watching a truly amazing extratopical "bomb" cyclone
off New England coast. It will be massive -- fill up entire Western
Atlantic off U.S. East Coast. Pressure as low as Sandy & hurricane winds"
The responsible storm is forecast to begin taking shape off the coast of
Florida Wednesday, unloading hazardous snow and ice in highly unusual
locations not accustomed to such weather. The National Weather Service
has already posted winter storm watches from Lake City, Fla. to Norfolk
By the time the storm reaches the ocean waters east of Long Island and
eastern New England on Thursday, it will be explosively intensifying.
The storm's central pressure will have fallen 53 millibars in just 24
hours - an astonishing rate of intensification.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/02/monster-storm-to-blast-east-coast-before-polar-vortex-uncorks-tremendous-cold-late-this-week/
-
[From Climate State
<http://climatestate.com/2018/01/03/winter-superstorms-and-global-warming/>:
]
video: Winter Superstorms and Global Warming
<https://youtu.be/HUZvc3MFU50> https://youtu.be/HUZvc3MFU50
-
Animation of low-level wind speed showing the development of the massive
circulation <https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/948311209970978822>
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/948311209970978822
-
Hansen: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms
<https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf>
https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf
-
Midweek snow and arctic cold on the way
<https://www.njtvonline.org/news/uncategorized/wrath-winter-midweek-snow-arctic-cold-way>
https://www.njtvonline.org/news/uncategorized/wrath-winter-midweek-snow-arctic-cold-way
-
All day Thursday meteorologists are going to be glued to the new
GOES-East satellite <https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/948255400851378176>
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/948255400851378176
-
Snow expected in Charleston, Savannah
<http://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/02/us/cold-weather-continues/index.html>
http://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/02/us/cold-weather-continues/index.html
-
[30 Day Outlook NOAA]
*Revised OFFICIAL Forecasts January 2018
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/>*
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
[Atttribution]
*Scientists Can Now Blame Individual Natural Disasters on Climate Change
<https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/>*
Extreme event attribution is one of the most rapidly expanding areas of
climate science
The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society now issues a special
report each year assessing the impact of climate change on the previous
year's extreme events. Interest in the field has grown so much that the
National Academy of Sciences released an in-depth report last year
evaluating the current state of the science and providing
recommendations for its improvement...
And as the science continues to mature, it may have ramifications for
society. Legal experts suggest that attribution studies could play a
major role in lawsuits brought by citizens against companies, industries
or even governments. They could help reshape climate adaptation policies
throughout a country or even the world. And perhaps more immediately,
the young field of research could be capturing the public's attention in
ways that long-term projections for the future cannot.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-can-now-blame-individual-natural-disasters-on-climate-change/
[Yale360]
*Global Warming Could Cause Dangerous Increases in Humidity
<http://e360.yale.edu/digest/global-warming-could-cause-dangerous-increases-in-humidity>*
Climate scientists often warn that rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere
will cause an increase in the number and intensity of heat waves in many
regions of the world. But a new study is cautioning that climate change
will also significantly increase humidity, magnifying the effects of
these heat waves and making it more difficult for humans to safely work
or be outside.
The study analyzed projected "wet bulb" temperatures - a measure of heat
stress that combines the effect of heat and humidity - for the next
century. (Wet bulb readings are taken by literally draping a
water-saturated cloth over the bulb of a conventional thermometer.)
Today in the southeastern United States, wet bulb temperatures of 84
degrees Fahrenheit are rare, but by the 2070s and 2080s, these
conditions could happen 25 to 40 days each year, the report found.
The situation would be even worse in northern India, central and western
Africa, eastern China, and South America. The study found that by 2080,
extreme wet bulb conditions could become 100 to 250 times more frequent
in the tropics.
Lab experiments have shown that a wet bulb reading of 90 degrees F is
the threshold beyond which people have trouble doing anything outside.
The report, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters,
found such conditions could occur three to five days a year in parts of
the tropics. By late this century, climate change could even
occasionally cause wet bulb conditions of 95 degrees Fahrenheit - a
level equivalent to nearly 170 degrees of "dry" heat, which would make
it difficult to survive without artificial cooling.
The study authors, all from Columbia University, warn that the intense
humidity could significantly impact the economy, agriculture, and the
military.
"The conditions we're talking about basically never occur now - people
in most places have never experienced them," the study's lead author,
Ethan Coffel - a graduate student at Columbia University's
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory - said in a statement.
http://e360.yale.edu/digest/global-warming-could-cause-dangerous-increases-in-humidity
-
[ 35 degrees C ]
*Humidity May Prove Breaking Point for Some Areas as Temperatures Rise,
Says Study
<http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2017/12/22/humidity-may-prove-breaking-point-for-some-areas-as-temperatures-rise-says-study/>*
From U.S. South to China, Heat Stress Could Exceed Human Endurance
Warming climate is projected to make many now-dry areas dryer, in part
by changing precipitation patterns. But by the same token, as global
temperatures rise, the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. That means
chronically humid areas located along coasts or otherwise hooked into
humid-weather patterns may only get more so. And, as many people know,
muggy heat is more oppressive than the "dry" kind. ..
"The conditions we're talking about basically never occur now-people in
most places have never experienced them," said lead author Ethan Coffel,
a graduate student at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory. "But they're projected to occur close to the end of the
century." The study will appears this week in the journal Environmental
Research Letters....
A new study projects that drastic combinations of heat and humidity may
hit large areas of the world later this century. ...
Climate scientist Steven Sherwood of the University of New South Wales,
who proposed the 35-degree survivability limit, said he was skeptical
that this threshold could be reached as soon as the researchers say.
Regardless, he said, "the basic point stands." Unless greenhouse
emissions are cut, "we move toward a world where heat stress is a vastly
greater problem than it has been in the rest of human history. The
effects will fall hardest on hot and humid regions."
Warming climate is projected to make many now-dry areas dryer, in part
by changing precipitation patterns. But by the same token, as global
temperatures rise, the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. That means
chronically humid areas located along coasts or otherwise hooked into
humid-weather patterns may only get more so. And, as many people know,
muggy heat is more oppressive than the "dry" kind.
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2017/12/22/humidity-may-prove-breaking-point-for-some-areas-as-temperatures-rise-says-study/
[Exxon]
*Why companies like Exxon are being more open about risks posed by
climate change
<https://www.dallasnews.com/news/environment/2018/01/02/investors-want-companies-like-exxon-open-risks-posed-climate-change>*
Exxon Mobil finally agreed in December to disclose the risks climate
change posed to its business after losing a landmark shareholder vote in
the spring. But a growing number of companies are embracing this kind of
disclosure without the threat of a messy proxy fight.
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/environment/2018/01/02/investors-want-companies-like-exxon-open-risks-posed-climate-change
[Harvard Study]
*To adapt to warmer temperatures, winemakers may have to plant lesser
known grape varieties, study suggests
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180102114149.htm>*
A new study suggests that, though vineyards might be able to counteract
some of the effects of climate change by planting lesser-known grape
varieties, scientists and vintners need to better understand the wide
diversity of grapes and their adaptions to different climates...
"We've been taught to recognize the varieties we think we like," she
said. "People buy Pinot even though it can taste totally different
depending on where it's grown. It might taste absolutely awful from
certain regions, but if you think you like Pinot, you're only buying that."
As Wolkovich sees it, wine producers now face a choice: proactively
experiment with new varieties, or risk suffering the negative
consequences of climate change.
"With continued climate change, certain varieties in certain regions
will start to fail - that's my expectation," she said. "The solution
we're offering is how do you start thinking of varietal diversity. Maybe
the grapes grown widely today were the ones that are easiest to grow and
tasted the best in historical climates, but I think we're missing a lot
of great grapes better suited for the future."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180102114149.htm
*This Day in Climate History January 3, 2011
<http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2011_01/027356.php>
- from **BetsyRosenberg.com*
Steve Benen of the Washington Monthly notes that Republican presidential
candidates who now try to deny the existence of human-caused climate
change will have to figure out a way to rewrite history:
"Yes, in Republican circles in 2011, those who don't reject the
scientific consensus on the climate crisis will be rejected out of
hand. Those who've been even somewhat reasonable on the issue in
recent years should expect to grovel shamelessly - a trait that's
always attractive in presidential candidates.
"The number of likely GOP candidates who've actually said out loud
that the planet is warming and that human activity is responsible is,
oddly enough, larger than the number of consistent climate deniers.
Sarah Palin has said pollution contributes to global warming and
'we've got to do something about it.' Romney has said he believes the
planet is warming and at least used to support cap-and-trade. Huckabee
and Pawlenty have backed cap-and-trade - which was, originally, a
Republican idea, by the way - in recent years. Even Newt Gingrich
used to demand 'action to address climate change,' and participated
briefly with Al Gore's Repower America campaign.
"This wasn't a problem up until very recently. John McCain's 2008
presidential platform not only acknowledged climate change, it
included a call for a cap-and-trade plan - and he won the nomination
fairly easily. As recently as 2006, rank-and-file Republican voters,
by and large, believed what the mainstream believed when it came to
climate science: global warming is real, it's a problem, and it
requires attention.
"But that was before the GOP fell off the right-wing cliff."
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2011_01/027356.php
/
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