[TheClimate.Vote] January 4, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/January 4, 2018/

[Attribution]
*Scientists Can Now Quickly Link Extreme Weather Events To Climate 
Change <https://youtu.be/eB7xJ23E1t0>*
Video posted  Jan 3, 2018
The United States is in the middle of a deep cold snap, and 
meteorologists are saying that a "bomb cyclone" - essentially a freezing 
hurricane - will hit parts of the East Coast tonight. It's a weather 
cycle that's prompted a number of climate change deniers - including 
President Trump - to crack tired jokes about the concept of global warming.
But beyond the misguided social media jabs lies a serious and ongoing 
discussion about how scientists can connect individual extreme weather 
events to underlying climate change - and more importantly, how fast 
they can make now those connections.
Remember that study from 2004. It looked at a European heat wave that 
took place in 2003, and took a year and a half to complete. In contrast, 
just three months after Hurricane Harvey, scientists at Lawrence 
Berkeley National Laboratory published a study  showing that Harvey 
dropped 38 percent more rain than it would have without underlying 
climate change. Another group called World Weather Attribution found 
that hurricanes that size have become three times more probable
VICE News spoke with Myles Allen, a climate scientist at the University 
of Oxford and one of the researchers behind the first climate 
attribution study, who explained why scientists are now able to rapidly 
figure out if an event like Hurricane Harvey was more devastating than 
it otherwise would have been because of climate change. (Answer: it was.)
"We are now looking at accelerating that whole process because once 
you've agreed on the method you're using, you don't need to reinvent the 
wheel every time you do a new study," Allen told VICE News. "The actual 
time it takes to actually do the calculations is not that long."
This segment originally aired January 3, 2017 on VICE News Tonight on HBO.
Subscribe to VICE News here: http://bit.ly/Subscribe-to-VICE-News Check 
out VICE News for more: http://vicenews.com
https://youtu.be/eB7xJ23E1t0


[Peter Sinclair videos]
*Katharine Hayhoe: What Happens in the Arctic Matters 
<https://climatecrocks.com/2018/01/03/katharine-hayhoe-what-happens-in-the-arctic-matters/>*
Katharine Hayhoe on why the Arctic Matters.
What happens in the Arctic doesn't really matter, right? 
<https://youtu.be/Kz0V3mTgsaM>
https://youtu.be/Kz0V3mTgsaM
5 Year Study: What Happens in the Arctic Does Not Stay There 
<https://youtu.be/n_ESAm0iK7Q>
The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Group's 5 year study on Snow, 
Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic, SWIPA, is now complete. 
https://youtu.be/n_ESAm0iK7Q
https://climatecrocks.com/2018/01/03/katharine-hayhoe-what-happens-in-the-arctic-matters/


[Military in the Arctic]
*Russia Is Deploying Anti-Aircraft Missiles to Defend Its Arctic Oil 
Claims 
<https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8xv87z/russia-anti-aircraft-missiles-tor-m2dt-defend-arctic-oil>*
The surface-to-air system is built for cold and can shoot down cruise 
missiles in the rapidly warming, potentially oil-rich Far North.
Russia's army will deploy special air-defense missiles systems to help 
defend its Arctic territory, the Kremlin announced 
<http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12157048@egNews>on 
January 2.
The new Tor-M2DT surface-to-air missiles system is part of a wider 
buildup of Russian forces in the rapidly warming, potentially oil-rich 
Far North. The system includes radars and missile-launchers and can 
shoot down airplanes, helicopters, drones, and even incoming 
precision-guided munitions (PGMs) like cruise missiles.
The Tor is the world's first air-defense system "specifically tailored 
for highly effective use against PGMs," as Russia's weapons-export 
agency once boasted. Fitted to a snowcat-style tracked vehicle, the M2DT 
version of the Tor is "adapted to severe climatic conditions [and] is 
intended to operate at extremely low temperatures and [on] difficult 
terrain," the Russian defense ministry stated...
As climate change shrinks year-round Arctic ice 
<https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/wnxkp9/an-ice-shelf-four-times-the-size-of-texas-just-melted-in-antartica> 
and opens up more of the region to oil- and gas-drilling, countries with 
Far North borders have scrambled to deploy more cold-weather military 
forces. Canada is building a new Arctic naval flotilla 
<http://www.navy-marine.forces.gc.ca/en/fleet-units/aops-home.page>. The 
United States is setting up squadrons of F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters 
in Alaska....
The Arctic is becoming a much more heavily armed place. But that doesn't 
necessarily mean war is inevitable. Moscow and its rivals prefer to 
drill in the Arctic 
<https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/vv7q8b/tillerson-putin-arctic-oil> 
rather than fight there, according to Abbie Tingstad, a scientist with 
the RAND Corporation, a California think-tank.
"Given how hard it is to operate in the Arctic," Tingstad said in a 
recent Q+A 
<https://www.rand.org/blog/rand-review/2017/10/policy-challenges-in-the-arctic-qa-with-abbie-tingstad.html> 
on policy challenges in the Far North, "any real conflict there would 
probably quash economic potential."
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8xv87z/russia-anti-aircraft-missiles-tor-m2dt-defend-arctic-oil
-
[Kremlin Announcement]*
**Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation*
*Arctic Tor-M2DT to enter service with Land Forces Air Defence* 
<http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12157048@egNews>
This year, the troops operating in the Russian Far North and the Arctic 
will receive the Tor-M2DT short-range anti-aircraft missile system.
It was announced by Chief of Land Forces Air Defence Lieutenant General 
Alexander Leonov.
The Tor-M2DT autonomous short-range anti-aircraft missile system adapted 
to severe climatic conditions is intended to operate at extremely low 
temperature and difficult terrain.
http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12157048@egNews


[Newsweek]
*Earth Will Start Becoming a Desert by 2050 If Global Warming Isn't 
Stopped, Study Says 
<http://www.newsweek.com/earth-desert-2050-global-warming-768545>*
More than 25 percent of the Earth will experience serious drought and 
desertification by the year 2050 if the attempts made by the Paris 
climate agreement to curb global warming are not met, according to a new 
study by the journal Nature Climate Change. The study, which was 
published on Monday, ...
http://www.newsweek.com/earth-desert-2050-global-warming-768545
-
[Nature Climate Change]
Keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees C constrains emergence of 
aridification <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4.epdf>
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4.epdf


[CSPAN The Second Session of the 115th Congress ]
*Senator Whitehouse giving first climate speech of the year. 
<https://www.c-span.org/video/?438924-1/us-senate-opens-session-115th-congress>*
.... WE OWE THIS TO OUR CHILDREN AND TO OUR CHILDREN'S CHILDREN. TO ALL 
FUTURE GENERATIONS WHO WILL LOOK BACK AT US, MR. PRESIDENT, AND SAY WHEN 
IT WAS SO OBVIOUS, HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED 
STATES, HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THIS CITY ON A HILL COULD DO NOTHING BUT 
THE BIDDING OF THE MOST CONFLICTED INDUSTRY ON THE PLANET? IN 2018 LET'S 
GET THIS RIGHT. THANK YOU, MR. PRESIDENT. I YIELD THE FLOOR AND NOTE THE 
ABSENCE OF A QUORUM.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?438924-1/us-senate-opens-session-115th-congress&start=15484


[Wind power]
*How Global Warming Could Alter the Wind-Power Landscape 
<https://news.azpm.org/p/news-articles/2018/1/2/121967-how-global-warming-could-alter-the-wind-power-landscape/>*
Climate change could mean winds in the Northern Hemisphere lose their 
oomph, study says.
Global wind patterns follow temperature and pressure gradients: Steeper 
differences mean stronger winds...
As rapid arctic warming shrinks the heat gap between the North Pole and 
equator, Northern Hemisphere winds could lose some oomph - up to 40 
percent over the next century, depending on region, according to a 
Nature Geoscience paper published online in early December.
The U.S. could average an 8 to 10 percent power loss by 2050, with some 
regions hit harder than others.
The study also projects a boost to Southern Hemisphere winds that could 
benefit areas of Australia, Africa and Brazil...
https://news.azpm.org/p/news-articles/2018/1/2/121967-how-global-warming-could-alter-the-wind-power-landscape/


[Arctic]
*Global Warming Is Increasing The Radioactivity Of The Arctic Ocean 
<http://www.iflscience.com/environment/global-warming-is-increasing-the-radioactivity-of-the-arctic-ocean/>*
Concentrations of radioactive radium-228 in the Arctic Ocean increased 
between 2007 and 2015. The radiation involved is far too low to be 
threatening in itself, but could act as a marker of deeply worrying 
trends. The good news is future measurements of radium could help 
quantify some of the most worrying aspects of climate change...
Unfortunately, systematic records of radium concentrations in the Arctic 
prior to 2015 don't exist. However, localized measurements taken in 
1994, 2002, and 2007 allowed Kipp to conclude that radium-228 has risen 
sharply over the 2007-2015 period, and most of this increase must come 
from sediments at the continental margin...
The permafrost that was previously preventing the incorporation of 
sedimentary radium into the ocean contains something far more dangerous 
than tiny quantities of the radioactive element – methane, which would 
greatly amplify warming. As climatologist Professor Jason Box famously 
tweeted 
<http://www.iflscience.com/environment/climatologist-arctic-carbon-release-could-mean-%E2%80%9Cwere-fucked%E2%80%9D/>: 
"If even a small fraction of Arctic sea floor carbon is released into 
the atmosphere, we're fucked"....
http://www.iflscience.com/environment/global-warming-is-increasing-the-radioactivity-of-the-arctic-ocean/


[Iran turmoil]
*Climate Change & Security: 2018 Iranian edition 
<http://getenergysmartnow.com/2018/01/03/climate-change-security-2018-iranian-edition/>*
Let's be clear: just one can't say 'the Syrian Civil War was created by 
human-driven climate change', climate change is just one of many factors 
driving today's unrest in Iran. Bad government economic policies, few 
jobs for young people, continued efforts to suppress openness, massive 
increases in smart phone ownership (with less fettered access to the 
world and each other), and … there are a multitude of factors at play in 
this complex situation. But one cannot (unless rejecting realities, like 
Trump and his #alternativefacts supporters) deny that human-driven 
climate change, with a 14-year long drought, is helping drive the 
disruption.
http://getenergysmartnow.com/2018/01/03/climate-change-security-2018-iranian-edition/


[New Hampshire politics]
*SeacoastOnline.com*
*Soldati gets heated over global warming at Hampton event 
<http://www.seacoastonline.com/news/20180102/soldati-gets-heated-over-global-warming-at-hampton-event>*
HAMPTON - The temperature outside was a frigid 11 degrees and dropping.
But inside, Lincoln Soldati was getting fired up over the issue of 
climate change.
"For me the issue is among the most important that we're facing," the 
Democratic congressional candidate told a group of party activists 
meeting Tuesday night at the United Methodist Church in Hampton.
Soldati was the first of the six declared Democratic candidates running 
for the open seat in the state's 1st Congressional District to speak at 
a monthly gathering of the Hampton Democrats.
He said that climate change "is the issue that's going to have the 
greatest impact not on me but on my grandchildren."
"I need to do whatever I can to affect their lives," Soldati added.
And he touted that "I'm one of the few people that actually uses the 
phrase global warming, because we've been told 'you can't talk about 
global warming. No, it's got to be climate change.' Well, climate change 
is the effect of global warming. Global warming is the problem."
Soldati is a Portsmouth native and U.S. Army veteran who spent four 
decades as a trial lawyer. He also served 18 years as Strafford County 
Attorney and in 2009 was elected mayor of Somersworth.
Soldati, who highlighted that he was an Uber driver after retiring from 
his law practice, said running for Congress "isn't something I had in 
mind."...
http://www.seacoastonline.com/news/20180102/soldati-gets-heated-over-global-warming-at-hampton-event

*
*[Art]*
Radical women and climate change: what to expect from the US art world 
in 2018 
<https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2018/jan/03/us-art-2018-radical-women-climate-change>*
A look ahead at the next 12 months suggests a varied landscape 
encompassing diverse work based on imprisonment, civil rights and the 
Vietnam war
It has been a complicated year with Trump dropping climate change from 
the US national security strategy and on 19 May, an exhibition opens at 
the Storm King Art Center in Mountainville, New York. Artists on Climate 
Change puts the work of a dozen artists on view who "speak to larger 
issues that affect regional, national, and global ecological health", 
said John P Stern, the president of Storm King. ..
As the co-curator Gary Carrion-Murayari says: "The exhibition amounts to 
a call for action, an active engagement, and an interference in 
political and social structures urgently requiring them."
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2018/jan/03/us-art-2018-radical-women-climate-change


*This Day in Climate History January  4, 1996 
<http://www.nytimes.com/1996/01/04/world/95-is-hottest-year-on-record-as-the-global-trend-resumes.html?pagewanted=print> 
-  from D.R. Tucker*
January 4, 1996: The New York Times reports:

    "The earth's average surface temperature climbed to a record high last
    year, according to preliminary figures, bolstering scientists' sense
    that the burning of fossil fuels is warming the climate.

    "Spells of cold, snow and ice like the ones this winter in the
    northeastern United States come and go in one region or another, as do
    periods of unusual warmth. But the net result globally made 1995 the
    warmest year since records first were kept in 1856, says a provisional
    report issued by the British Meteorological Office and the University
    of East Anglia.

    "The average temperature was 58.72 degrees Fahrenheit, according to
    the British data, seven-hundredths of a degree higher than the
    previous record, established in 1990.

    "The British figures, based on land and sea measurements around the
    world, are one of two sets of long-term data by which surface
    temperature trends are being tracked.

    "The other, maintained by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    in New York, shows the average 1995 temperature at 59.7 degrees,
    slightly ahead of 1990 as the warmest year since record-keeping began
    in 1866. But the difference is within the margin of sampling error,
    and the two years essentially finished neck and neck.

    "The preliminary Goddard figures differ from the British ones because
    they are based on a somewhat different combination of observations
    around the world.

    "One year does not a trend make, but the British figures show the
    years 1991 through 1995 to be warmer than any similar five-year
    period, including the two half-decades of the 1980's, the warmest
    decade on record.

    "This is so even though a sun-reflecting haze cast aloft by the 1991
    eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines cooled the earth
    substantially for about two years. Despite the post-Pinatubo cooling,
    the Goddard data show the early 1990's to have been nearly as warm as
    the late 1980's, which Goddard says was the warmest half-decade on
    record.

    "Dr. James E. Hansen, the director of the Goddard center, predicted
    last year that a new global record would be reached before 2000, and
    yesterday he said he now expected that 'we will still get at least a
    couple more' by then.

    "Dr. Hansen has been one of only a few scientists to maintain
    steadfastly that a century-long global warming trend is being caused
    mostly by human influence, a belief he reiterated yesterday."

http://www.nytimes.com/1996/01/04/world/95-is-hottest-year-on-record-as-the-global-trend-resumes.html?pagewanted=print

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