[TheClimate.Vote] July 6, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Jul 6 10:36:21 EDT 2018
/July 6, 2018/
[everywhere]
*Heatwave 2018: Think it's hot here? Record highs leave world baking
<https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heatwave-2018-think-it-s-hot-here-record-highs-leave-world-baking-nn0rd8cq9>*
Temperature records are being broken in a heatwave enveloping the
northern hemisphere that has put Britain on course for its longest spell
of hot weather for 42 years.
The world's highest sustained temperature in a 24-hour period was
recorded at the end of last month when residents of Quriyat, Oman,
endured a minimum of 42.6C (108.7F).
North America and Asia are also sweltering under intense heat. Denver
reached 40.6C, which equalled the American city's hottest day.
Temperatures in Ahvaz, Iran, reached 54C, the highest the country has
experienced.
The heatwave is coinciding with record temperatures in Britain. In the
past week cities in Scotland and Ireland have recorded new highs. In
Glasgow temperatures of 31.9C melted the "weatherproof" material on the
roof of its Science Centre. Belfast reached a record of 29.5C.
Forecasters said that the hot spell in Britain was set to match that of
1976, when temperatures reached at least 28C for 16 consecutive days.
Meteorologists expect a cooler end to this week, but only by a couple of
degrees. "The long-range trend is for above-average temperatures staying
until the end of July," Emma Salter, a meteorologist, said.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heatwave-2018-think-it-s-hot-here-record-highs-leave-world-baking-nn0rd8cq9
[Changes at EPA]
*EPA Chief Scott Pruitt Resigns
<https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-07-05-scott-pruitt-epa-chief-administrator-resigns>*
By weather.com
In a tweet Thursday afternoon, President Donald Trump said he had
accepted the resignation of the beleaguered EPA chief.
It was not immediately clear how the resignation might affect ongoing
ethics investigations of Pruitt.
EPA deputy Andrew Wheeler will assume duties as the acting administrator
of the EPA.
- - - -
In recent weeks, Pruitt has come under increasing scrutiny for numerous
scandals that include spending behaviors, allegations that he rented a
Capitol Hill condominium linked to an energy lobbyist and a CNN report
released this week that accuses the chief of using "secret" calendars
and schedules to hide controversial meetings with industry players.
https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-07-05-scott-pruitt-epa-chief-administrator-resigns
- - - - -
[Opinion]
*Scott Pruitt is out, far too late
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/07/05/scott-pruitt-is-out-far-too-late/?utm_term=.8ef5c4623888>*
Jennifer Rubin
The most dishonest and corrupt administration in about a century is only
marginally improved by the departure of Pruitt. Only with serious
oversight (which likely will come only from a Democratic majority in one
or both houses) can we hope to fumigate the administration. In the
meantime, Congress needs to beef up ethics reporting and enforcement,
make disclosure of the president's tax returns mandatory and stiffen
penalties for violations of ethics rules. Only then will we restore a
modicum of normalcy to the government, which has come to resemble a
corrupt banana republic.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/07/05/scott-pruitt-is-out-far-too-late/?utm_term=.8ef5c4623888
- - - -
[Replacement - who is Andrew Wheeler?]
*Andrew Wheeler - Credentials - Background
<https://www.desmogblog.com/andrew-wheeler>*
https://www.desmogblog.com/andrew-wheeler
[In the Arctic, just above Norway]
*Northern Barents Sea warms dramatically
<https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/07/northern-barents-sea-warms-dramatically>*
Scientists link the sharp increase in ocean temperature to a recent
decline in sea-ice import. Around Svalbard, this July is worst ever in
times of records.
By Thomas Nilsen - July 05, 2018
The northern Barents Sea is an Arctic warming hotspot, says Sigrid Lind
with the Marine Research Institute in Tromsø, Norway. The changes go
from Arctic to Atlantic climate, concludes a study Lind and other
scientists have made. The results are published in a recent article in
Nature.
- - - - - -
Thus, the northern Barents Sea may soon complete the transition from a
cold Arctic to a warm and well-mixed Atlantic dominated climate regime.
In fact, the entire Barents Sea will be ice-free year-around.
"Such a shift would have unknown consequences for the Barents Sea
ecosystem," Lind says.
What happens now due to climate changes is a self-reinforcing cycle. The
climate tipping point for Arctic sea-ice might already been past since
the Barents Sea acts like a buffer between the Arctic Ocean and the
North-Atlantic. Warm Atlantic water will no longer be pressed deeper by
freshwater around Svalbard because the fresh water floating south from
sea-ice disappears, and with the salter Atlantic water sea-ice formation
will decrease. Sea-ice has been the most important source of fresh water
to the northern Barents Sea.
- - - - -
Further north, and around the archipelago, the ice chart for July 4th
shows 183,751 square kilometers of ice. This is 131,416 square
kilometers below the 1981-2010 average.
Only some few spots with very open drift ice can be seen. From north of
Svalbard up to 82 degrees, it is today possible to sail all east to the
west coast of Franz Josef Land before meeting sea-ice.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/07/northern-barents-sea-warms-dramatically
[Understanding Climate Models]
Video 4 mins
*A Short Introduction to Climate Models - CMIP & CMIP6
<https://youtu.be/WdRiYPJLt4o>*
World Climate Research Programme
Published on Jun 21, 2017
As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) organized
under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP)
Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) many hundreds of climate
researchers, working with modeling centres around the world, will share,
compare and analyze the latest outcomes of global climate models. These
model products will fuel climate research for the next 5 to 10 years,
while its careful analysis will form the basis for future climate
assessments and negotiations.
https://youtu.be/WdRiYPJLt4o
- - - - - - -
*"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi
Berra*
- - - - -
[advanced college level studies - a worthwhile video 15 mins]
*5.1 Introduction to Climate Modeling <https://youtu.be/XGi2a0tNjOo>*
Climate Literacy
https://youtu.be/XGi2a0tNjOo
- - - - - -
[from RealClimate.org, independence movements in climate modeling]
*Model Independence Day
<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/07/model-independence-day/>*
Filed under: Climate modelling Climate Science IPCC statistics - gavin @
4 July 2018
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all models are created
equal, that they are endowed by their Creators with certain
unalienable Rights, that among these are a DOI, Runability and
Inclusion in the CMIP ensemble mean.
Well, not quite. But it is Independence Day in the US, and
coincidentally there is a new discussion paper (Abramowitz et al)
(direct link) posted on model independence just posted at Earth System
Dynamics.
What does anyone mean by model independence? In the international
coordinated efforts to assess climate model skill (such as the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project), multiple groups from around the world
submit their model results from specified experiments to a joint
archive. The basic idea is that if different models from different
groups agree on a result, then that result is likely to be robust based
on the (shared) fundamental understanding of the climate system despite
the structural uncertainty in modeling the climate. But there are two
very obvious ways in which this ideal is not met in practice.
First, if the models are actually the same, then it's totally
unsurprising that a result might be common between them. One of the two
models would be redundant and add nothing to our knowledge of structural
uncertainties.
Second, the models might well be totally independent in formulation,
history and usage, but the two models share a common, but fallacious,
assumption about the real world. Then a common result might reflect that
shared error, and not reflect anything about the real world at all.
These two issues are also closely tied to the problem of model
selection. Given an ensemble of models, that have varied levels of skill
across any number of metrics, is there a subset or weighting of models
that could be expected to give the most skillful predictions? And if so,
how would you demonstrate that?
These problems have been considered (within the climate realm) since the
beginnings of the "MIP" process in the 1990s, but they are (perhaps
surprisingly) very tough to deal with...
video: Reto Knutti: Mysterious Models and Enigmatic Ensembles
Rotman Institute of Philosophy - Published on Mar 18, 2015
As our understanding improves, more observations become available,
and computational capacity increases, climate models continue to in
- crease in complexity to synthesize all that knowledge. The hope is
that as more and more processes are considered at greater realism
and higher resolution, the models will converge to reality. But do
they really, how do we know, and indeed should they? What is the
purpose of current global climate models? Are they built to
understand processes, to quantify past changes, or to predict the
future, and do all of those require the same models? Uncertainty in
climate projections is difficult to quantify, and has not decreased
significantly in the past few years, partly as a result of
irreducible climate variability. Progress in model evaluation as
well as statistical methods to interpret and combine model
projections is urgently needed, in particular as more models of
different quality and higher complexity, including perturbed physics
ensembles and ensembles with structurally different models become
available.
Reto Knutti, ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science
2014 Annual Rotman Conference
Knowledge and Models in Climate Science: Philosophical, Historical &
Scientific Perspectives
October 24 - 26, 2014
...a joint declaration of some sort is probably a little optimistic…
We, therefore, the Representatives of the united Modelling Groups of
the World, in AGU Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme
Judge of the model ensemble for the rectitude of our intentions, do,
in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these modeling
Centers, solemnly publish and declare, That these disparate Models
are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent Codes, that they
are Absolved from all Allegiance to NCAR, GFDL and Arakawa, and that
all algorithmic connection between them and the Met Office of Great
Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and
Independent Models, they have full Power to run Simulations,
conclude Papers, contract Intercomparison Projects, establish Shared
Protocols, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent
Models may of right do. - And for the support of this Declaration,
with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine PCMDI, we mutually
pledge to each other our Working Lives, our Git Repositories, and
our sacred H-Index.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/07/model-independence-day/
- - - - -
[Naomi Oreskes called it the Complexity Paradox]
The Role of Quantitative Models in Science Naomi Oreskes
<https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261947872_The_Role_of_Quantitative_Models_in_Science_Naomi_Oreskes>
... Barlas (2007) noted that novice modelers tend to build big
models to address big issues.*There is more intuitive faith in
complex models because they allow us to simulate more processes (
Oreskes, 2003). However, as more processes and parameters are added
to a model, the overall certainty of its predictions might decrease*.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261947872_The_Role_of_Quantitative_Models_in_Science_Naomi_Oreskes
[a very big deal - overlooked by mass media news]
*Rhode Island Becomes First State to File Climate Suit Vs. Oil Companies
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/07/02/rhode-island-climate-liability-suit/>*
After the first major setback to climate liability litigation came last
week at the hands of a federal judge, many figured (and the fossil fuel
companies hoped) it would discourage other communities from filing
similar suits. Not only did Rhode Island turn that idea on its ear this
week by becoming the first state to sue Big Oil for climate impacts, it
did so with great 'little guy' flair. State Attorney General Peter
Kilmartin reveled in being the tiny state suing a big, powerful
industry. "Back when Sen. Whitehouse was Attorney General, critics said
the same thing about pursuing Big Tobacco," Kilmartin said. "That they
would crush the states and never be held accountable for the harms they
caused. The critics were wrong then, and they will be wrong this time."
Notably, Rhode Island filed in state court, the avenue most legal
experts say provides the best opportunity for success.
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/07/02/rhode-island-climate-liability-suit/
- - - - -
[International legal actions]
*UK judge postpones decision on landmark climate case
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/04/uk-judge-postpones-decision-landmark-climate-case/>*
Published on 04/07/2018
The high court in London has postponed its decision on whether 11
citizens can bring their complaint that the UK's climate targets need to
be changed before the full court...
Climate legal group Plan B and the 11 plaintiffs brought the case to try
to compel Greg Clark, secretary of state for business, energy and
industrial strategy (Beis), to increase the ambition of the UK's 2050
carbon target.
"The UK is not doing enough," Tim Crosland, director of Plan B told
Climate Home News. "The benchmark target is now out of place. We are
arguing that it is a breach of human rights."...
The UK has recently lost several High Court battles
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/21/high-court-rules-uk-air-pollution-plans-unlawful>
over the adequacy of its plans to fight air pollution.
The judge at Wednesday's permission hearing, Michael Supperstone, did
not say when he would make his decision.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/04/uk-judge-postpones-decision-landmark-climate-case/
[Aussie Sarcasm: Video Ads for Honest Government]
*Honest Government Ad - Visit the Northern Territory
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuQZ6rALub8>*!
thejuicemedia
Published on Jul 4, 2018
The Australien Government has made a tourism ad for the Northern
Territory and it's surprisingly honest and informative.
Tell gas companies to get the frack out of the NT:
https://dontfracktheterritory.lockthegate.org.au/frack_free_nt_petition
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuQZ6rALub8
*This Day in Climate History - July 6, 2010
<http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html>-
from D.R. Tucker*
July 6, 2010: Washington Post writer Ezra Klein observes:
"There's a range of likely outcomes from a tax on carbon, and we can
handle most of them. There's also a range of outcomes from radical
changes in the planet's climate, and we've really no idea which we
can handle, and which we can't. We don't even really know what that
range looks like. And although a tax can be undone or reformed,
there's no guarantee that we can reverse hundreds of years of rapid
greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere. If you want proof, look at
our inability to deal with an underwater oil spill, and consider how
much more experience we have repairing oil rigs than reversing
concentrations of gases in the atmosphere.
"One of the oddities of the global warming debate, in fact, is that
the side that's usually skeptical of government intervention is
potentially setting up a future in which the government is
intervening on a planetary scale. I don't think of myself as
particularly skeptical of the feds, but I'm a lot more comfortable
with their ability to levy a tax than their capacity to reform the
atmosphere. That's why, when faced with the choice between being
risk averse about a tax or about the planet, I tend to choose the
planet."
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/the_case_for_being_careful_wit.html
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