[TheClimate.Vote] June 5, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Jun 5 09:35:24 EDT 2018
/June 5, 2018/
[More Wildfires with Warming]
*California Fire Burns More Than 900 Acres Within Hours as Wildfires
Blaze in the West
<https://weather.com/safety/wildfires/news/2018-06-02-416-fire-colorado-ute-park-fire-new-mexico-aliso-fire-california>*
Several wildfires have forced evacuations in California, Colorado and
New Mexico.
The Stone Fire burning in Agua Dulce, California, grew to more than 900
acres within three hours.
The so-called 416 Fire in Colorado has burned into the San Juan National
Forest and spurred more than 800 homes to be evacuated.
Fourteen buildings have been destroyed in the New Mexico inferno, and
hundreds of homes are threatened, officials said.
https://weather.com/safety/wildfires/news/2018-06-02-416-fire-colorado-ute-park-fire-new-mexico-aliso-fire-california
- - - - -
[wish for clouds]
*California Wildfire Risk Grows as Cloud Cover Is 'Plummeting'
<https://www.ecowatch.com/california-wildfires-clouds-2575070844.html>*
By Alex Kirby
Southern California's wildfires are posing a growing risk, as the
Sunshine State threatens to become too sunny for its own good. In many
southern coastal areas, rising summer temperatures caused by spreading
urbanization and the warming climate are driving off formerly common
low-lying morning clouds and increasing the prospect of worse wildfires,
U.S. scientists say...
https://www.ecowatch.com/california-wildfires-clouds-2575070844.html
[warming more]
*Warmest May ever on Arctic islands
<https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/06/warmest-may-ever-arctic-islands>*
6 degrees C above normal in Longyarbyen which concluded its 90th month
in a row with above normal temperatures.
By Thomas Nilsen
June 03, 2018
Not since December 2010 has Norway's Meteorological Institute measured
normal temperatures at its northernmost locations. It should still be
freezing, below zero. Not so this May. Measurements at Longyearbyen
airport on Svalbard could tell a story about global warming not seen
before with a mean temperature of 1.8 degrees C, which is 6 degrees C
above normal.
Also the other Norwegian Arctic islands experienced a warm May,the
institute reports <https://www.met.no/nyhetsarkiv/varmeste-mai-noensinne>.
Bjornoya in the Barents Sea was the warmest with a mean temperature of
3.7 degrees C. That is 5.1 degrees C above normal. Hopen was 5 degrees C
above normal, while Jan Mayen had 5.1 degrees C warmer than normal for May.
Ny-Alesund, further north on Spitsbergen, had a mean temperature of 1.6
degrees C, which is 5.6 degrees C above normal for the month.
On mainland Norway, temperatures in the last few days of May were warmer
than most holiday resorts around the Mediterranean. Warmest was Etne
outside Bergen with 32.7 degrees C on May 30th. Mean temperature for
Norway was 4.2 degrees above normal. Since mean values were registered
first time in 1900, 2018 is by far the warmest ever measured the
Meteorological Institute informs
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/06/warmest-may-ever-arctic-islands
- - - -
https://www.met.no/en
[Heat and Hurricanes - a 5 minute video]
*Ocean heat as 'fuel' for hurricanes
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOdDMEUSXxo>*
YaleClimateConnections - May 31, 2018
Researchers track the source of energy of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey that
punished parts of Texas ... right to the record-high Gulf of Mexico
temperature.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOdDMEUSXxo
[Calling for a Cat 6]
*Hurricane Season 2018: Experts Warn of Super Storms, Call For New
Category 6
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02062018/hurricane-season-2018-noaa-storm-forecast-global-warming-atlantic-ocean-temperature-new-category-6>*
A spate of record-breaking storms has spurred a call for expanding the
hurricane scale for better warnings that could save lives.
By Bob Berwyn, InsideClimate News
The analysis
<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/>,
published this week by four prominent climate scientists, also shows
other clear trends, including a poleward migration of the areas where
storms reach peak intensity, which puts new areas at risk
<https://psmag.com/environment/how-global-warming-could-push-hurricanes-to-new-regions>,
including New England and even Europe.
Storms are also intensifying more quickly, with a greater chance they
will drop record amounts of rain, especially if they stall out when they
hit land, as Hurricane Harvey did in Houston last year.
"The weight of the evidence suggests that the 30-year-old prediction of
more intense and wetter tropical cyclones is coming to pass. This is a
risk that we can no longer afford to ignore," wrote the authors - Stefan
Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Kerry
Emanuel of MIT, Jim Kossin of NOAA and Mann.
Mann advocates for adding a new Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale to describe the extremely powerful super storms
seen in recent years - storms that can be fueled by global warming.
"The current intensity scale doesn't capture the fact that a 10 mph
increase in sustained wind speeds ups the damage potential by 20
percent," Mann said. "That's not a subtle effect. It's one that we can
see." Based on the spacing of Categories 1-5, there should be a Category
6 approaching peak winds of 190 mph, he said.
Creating a new warning level for unprecedented storms could help save
lives. When Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest tropical cyclones on
record, hit the Philippines in 2013, people died in shelters that had
been designed to withstand a historic storm surge but still flooded...
- - - - -
"The damages that occurred last year strongly suggest that small
investments in resilience in the past 10 years could well have saved
hundreds of billions of dollars and lots of strife," he said. "After
Hurricane Katrina, the Corp of Engineers built back the levees to
withstand a Category 3 hurricane, but not a Category 5 hurricane. That
makes no sense to me, and in many areas the U.S. seems incapable of
planning ahead for real risks."
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02062018/hurricane-season-2018-noaa-storm-forecast-global-warming-atlantic-ocean-temperature-new-category-6
[Poignant video astounding images 12 minutes]
*Tangier Island: The First U.S. Climate Refugees?
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOSK3We8IGM>*
The Atlantic Published on Jun 1, 2018
The small island of Tangier sits 12 miles off the coast of Virginia.
It's a peaceful, salt-of-the-earth kind of place, with only 600
full-time residents, most of whom have known their neighbors -
commercial crabbers, watermen, schoolteachers, parishioners - for
generations. Shortly, however, that may all come to an end.
As soon as 25 years from now, Tangier is expected to disappear into the
sea. The people who live there, along with the residents of similar
coastal towns and islands threatened by sea-level rise, may become among
the first U.S. climate refugees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOSK3We8IGM
- - - - -
more in the Atlantic article at:
https://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/561587/tangier-island/
- - - -
*Google Maps views of Tangier Island:*
https://www.google.com/maps/@37.8297135,-75.9839308,14z
https://www.google.com/maps/@37.8297135,-75.9839308,7105m/data=!3m1!1e3
[Opinion]
*Don't turn to the military to solve the climate-change crisis
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/04/dont-turn-to-the-military-to-solve-the-climate-change-crisis>*
Nick Buxton
Warning about conflicts, wars and mass migration is the wrong way to
approach things
Security is a modern day weasel word - who can be against security? The
question rarely asked is whose security are we talking about - security
of what, for whom and from whom? The US, EU and now Australian
strategies, though, clearly state they are talking about the security of
their respective nations in the face of "threats" usually coming from
the consequences of climate change in neighbouring countries.
The submission from Australia's Department of Defence to the inquiry put
it this way: "When climate impacts are combined with ethnic or other
social grievances, they can contribute to increased migration, internal
instability or intra-state insurgencies, often over greater competition
for natural resources. These developments may foster terrorism or
cross-border conflict."
- - - -
Australia's experience of unprecedented heat waves and fires in recent
years has already shown that climate change will have a big impact on
the country and the wider region. But how those impacts play out will
depend to a great degree on how we choose to respond. An approach that
relies on military forces and barbed wire will worsen the crisis and
create a world no one wants to live in. Real security emerges from
recognising our interdependence, tackling injustice and inequality, and
working together to protect those who are most vulnerable.
Nick Buxton works at the Transnational Institute based in the
Netherlands and is co-editor of The Secure and the Dispossessed: How the
Military and Corporations are shaping a climate-changed world (Pluto
Books, 2015)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/04/dont-turn-to-the-military-to-solve-the-climate-change-crisis
[paleoclimatology - movie segment of fossils at the poles]
*Green Antarctica
Thin Ice Climate <https://vimeo.com/210519097>*
Jane Francis describes how fossil plants in the Arctic and Antarctic
provide clues to the planet's climate over geological time. Over 50
million years ago both poles were covered by luxuriant vegetation, which
gradually declined and disappeared as ice sheets advanced. today, both
regions are again showing dramatic warming, and if this continues
unchecked in the coming centuries, parts of Antarctica may become green
again.
https://vimeo.com/210519097
[viewing the garden from above]
*NASA Soil Moisture Data Advances Global Crop Forecasts
<https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7143>*
Data from the first NASA satellite mission dedicated to measuring the
water content of soils is now being used operationally by the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) to monitor global croplands and make
commodity forecasts.
The Soil Moisture Active Passive mission, or SMAP, launched in 2015 and
has helped map the amount of water in soils worldwide. Now, with tools
developed by a team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt,
Maryland, SMAP soil moisture data are being incorporated into the Crop
Explorer website of the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, which
reports on regional droughts, floods and crop forecasts. Crop Explorer
is a clearinghouse for global agricultural growing conditions, such as
soil moisture, temperature, precipitation, vegetation health and more.
"There's a lot of need for understanding, monitoring and forecasting
crops globally," said John Bolten, research scientist at Goddard. "SMAP
is NASA's first satellite mission devoted to soil moisture, and this is
a very straightforward approach to applying that data."
Variations in global agricultural productivity have tremendous economic,
social and humanitarian consequences. Among the users of these new SMAP
data are USDA regional crop analysts who need accurate soil moisture
information to better monitor and predict these variations.
"The USDA does crop forecasting activities from a global scale, and one
of the main pieces of information for them is the amount of water in the
soil," said Iliana Mladenova, a research scientist at Goddard.
The USDA has used computer models that incorporate precipitation and
temperature observations to indirectly calculate soil moisture. This
approach, however, is prone to error in areas lacking high-quality,
ground-based instrumentation. Now, Mladenova said, the agency is
incorporating direct SMAP measurements of soil moisture into Crop
Explorer. This allows the agriculture analysts to better predict where
there could be too little, or too much, water in the soil to support crops.
These soil moisture conditions, along with tools to analyze the data,
are also available on Google Earth Engine. There, researchers, nonprofit
organizations, resource managers and others can access the latest data
as well as archived information.
"If you have better soil moisture data and information on anomalies,
you'll be able to predict, for example, the occurrence and development
of drought," Mladenova said.
The timing of the information matters as well, she added - if there's a
short dry period early in the season, it might not have an impact on the
total crop yield, but if there's a prolonged dry spell when the grain
should be forming, the crop is less likely to recover.
With global coverage every three days, SMAP can provide the Crop
Explorer tool with timely updates of the soil moisture conditions that
are essential for assessments and forecasts of global crop productivity.
For more than a decade, USDA Crop Explorer products have incorporated
soil moisture data from satellites. It started with the Advanced
Microwave Scanning Radiometer-E instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite,
but that instrument stopped gathering data in late 2011. Soil moisture
information from the European Space Agency's (ESA) Soil Moisture and
Ocean Salinity mission is also being incorporated into some of the USDA
products. This new, high-quality input from SMAP will help fill critical
gaps in soil moisture information.
SMAP is managed for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington by
the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, with
instrument hardware and science contributions made by Goddard.
To learn more about SMAP, visit:
https://smap.jpl.nasa.gov
The USDA's Crop Explorer tool is at:
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/
For information about SMAP data products in Google Earth Engine, visit:
https://explorer.earthengine.google.com/#detail/NASA_USDA%2FHSL%2FSMAP_soil_moisture
[Online activism]
*We Don't Have Time <https://wedonthavetime.org/launch/>*
That is why we are currently developing the world's biggest social
network for climate action! Together we can solve the climate crisis.
But we are running out of time…
We Don't Have Time aims to create a social media platform for the
future, focused on the biggest challenge of our times - the climate.
Through our platform, millions of members will unite to put pressure on
leaders, politicians and corporations to act for the climate.
It is all about what we can do together.
Our Manifest <https://wedonthavetime.org/launch/manifest/>
The Earth is warming, severely disrupting the conditions for life
and society. This process is not a distant possibility that future
leaders and technology can take care of. We own this problem. And we
need to solve it. Now. https://wedonthavetime.org/launch/manifest/
We must all - as citizens on Earth - step up and come together. We
believe that the fastest, most efficient way to do this is by modern
technology and communication. Our goal is therefore to build the world's
largest social media platform focused on climate change, allowing our
members - you, me, my friends, your friends, our families, all and
everyone - to be the change by the power of many.
Because #WeDontHaveTime to wait. We need to act now to fight the climate
crisis.
https://wedonthavetime.org/launch/
[Business of Risk - audio podcast]
*Venture Adaptation: Jupiter Intel and the Emerging Business of Climate
Change
<http://americaadapts.org/2018/06/04/venture-adaptation-jupiter-intel-and-the-emerging-business-of-climate-change/>*
Published by americaadapts on June 4, 2018
In episode 67of America Adapts, Doug Parsons talks with Rich Sorkin, CEO
and Co-Founder of Jupiter Intel. Rich shares the history of Jupiter
Intel as a silicon valley start up and his short and long term goals in
this emerging field. Doug and Rich discuss Jupiter's core business of
risk modeling and the uncertainties associated with future modeling.
They also talk about emerging businesses in the adaptation sector and
the role of profit making entities like Jupiter and the 'wild wild west'
mentality that exists in some areas of future modeling. These topics and
much more!
Bonus: Doug hosts Claire Wayner, a Baltimore area teen who is leading
efforts to recruit youth for the upcoming Zero Hour Climate March. Be
inspired by her story!
Topics in this episode:
How businesses can avoid a repeat of the 2008 meltdown through
climate smart planning;
Understanding climate risks and profiting off it;
Media generated by Jupiter Intel's approach;
Are businesses truly risk adverse?
Is short term climate modeling reliable?
Is Florida behaving rationally when it comes to business risk?
And much more!
http://americaadapts.org/2018/06/04/venture-adaptation-jupiter-intel-and-the-emerging-business-of-climate-change/
[Source: London School of Economics]
*Economic models significantly underestimate climate change risks
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180603193616.htm>*
June 3, 2018
Summary:
Policymakers are being misinformed by the results of economic models
that underestimate the future risks of climate change impacts, according
to a new journal paper by authors in the United States and the United
Kingdom, which is published today (4 June 2018).
The paper in the Review of Environmental Economics and Policy calls for
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to improve how it
analyses the results of economic modelling as it prepares its Sixth
Assessment Report, due to be published in 2021 and 2022.
- - - -
The authors draw attention to "a major discrepancy between scientific
and economic estimates of the impacts of unmanaged future climate
change." They state: "These discrepancies between the physical and the
economic impact estimates are large, and they matter. However, physical
impacts are often not translated into monetary terms and they have
largely been ignored by climate economists."
The paper states that the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report should
"strengthen its focus on decision making under uncertainty" and "focus
on estimating how the uncertainty itself affects economic and financial
cost estimates of climate change."
The authors point out that the preparation of the report "can act as
a broad forum that brings together scientists and economists with a
goal of quantifying the impacts of climate change."
They suggest that this would allow the IPCC to "provide policymakers
with a more robust and rigorous way of assessing the potential future
risks of economic damage from climate change."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180603193616.htm
["We must do everything, all at once" - Bill Nye]
*Climate Action Without War
<http://www.314action.org/endorsed-candidates-1/>*Updated: Apr 30
What securitisation theory can tell us about starting a war on climate
change.
by Alexa Waud
Securitisation is a concept used in international relations to describe
the process through which something becomes an object of security. It is
less concerned with what security is, and more concerned with the
actions that move an issue from the realm of normal politics to
emergency politics where is it understood to be an existential threat
(usually this action involves a powerful actor saying something is a
security issue). When an issue has been securitised, powerful actors can
direct resources and attention towards the issue without going through
the process of democratic debate. For this reason, scholars from the
Copenhagen School see securitisation as compromising democracy, and
advocate for bringing issues back into the realm of normal politics
where they can be debated and discussed.
https://www.anthroposphere.co.uk/blog/climate-action-without-war
[New Publication]
*British Ecological Society launches new journal: People and Nature
<https://www.britishecologicalsociety.org/new-journal-people-nature/>*
11 May 2018
By Sabrina Weiss
The British Ecological Society (BES), in partnership with its publisher
John Wiley & Sons, is delighted to announce the launch of a new
international journal.
People and Nature is an open access journal dedicated to publishing
high-quality, peer-reviewed work from research areas exploring
relationships between humans and nature.
Recognising the importance of human aspects in all areas of ecology,
People and Nature fosters innovation and experimentation. Authors may
use quantitative, qualitative and mixed methodologies.
https://www.britishecologicalsociety.org/new-journal-people-nature/
*This Day in Climate History - June 5, 2007
<http://youtu.be/Wlqb1D9pDIs> - from D.R. Tucker*
June 5, 2007: At a GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire, Rudy
Giuliani declares:
"I think we have to accept the view that scientists have that there
is global warming and that human operation, human condition,
contributes to that. And the fact is that there is a way to deal
with it and to address it in a way that we can also accomplish
energy independence, which we need as a matter of national security.
It's frustrating and really dangerous for us to see money going to
our enemies because we have to buy oil from certain countries. We
should be supporting all the alternatives."
http://youtu.be/Wlqb1D9pDIs
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