[TheClimate.Vote] June 6, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/June 6, 2018/

*Forest Service preps for another summer of devastating wildfires across 
much of the country 
<https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/06/05/u-s-forest-service-preps-another-summer-devastating-wildfires/673620002/>*
Michael Collins, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON - Get ready for another summer of destructive wildfires 
across much of the country.
Forecasters at the National Interagency Fire Center are predicting that 
warmer and drier-than-normal conditions have put large portions of the 
Western United States at above-average risk for significant wildfires 
between now and September.
This year's wildfire season could rival last year's, which was one of 
the most devastating on record, said Vicki Christiansen, interim chief 
of the U.S. Forest Service.
- - - -
"Early predictions indicate that 2018 will likely be another challenging 
wildfire year," she said.
- - - -
Massive wildfires that started last week in New Mexico and Colorado are 
burning through thousands of acres.
Other states that are likely to experience forest fires this year 
include Arizona, California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah and 
Washington.
The Forest Service and its partners have more than 10,000 firefighters, 
900 engines and hundreds of aircraft available to manage the fires, 
Christiansen told senators.
"At this time, we believe these to be adequate resources to address 
wildfire activity, but will continue to evaluate our needs as the year 
progresses," she said.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/06/05/u-s-forest-service-preps-another-summer-devastating-wildfires/673620002/


[US Map - 3 month outlook]
*Precipitation and temperature outlook for this summer 
<http://wildfiretoday.com/2018/06/02/precipitation-and-temperature-outlook-for-this-summer/>*
Yesterday the National Interagency Fire Center released their 
monthlywildfire potential outlook for the next four months. 
<http://wildfiretoday.com/2018/06/01/wildfire-potential-june-through-september-5/> 
They predicted that in July the areas with the highest potential will 
move from the Southwest to Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Western Montana, 
California, and northern Nevada.
These charts show the National Weather Service's outlook for 
precipitation and temperature for June through August, 2018.
Three month precipitation outlook 
<http://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Deqy_2hX0AAN_hs.jpg>
<http://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Deqy_2hX0AAN_hs.jpg>http://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Deqy_2hX0AAN_hs.jpg
http://wildfiretoday.com/2018/06/02/precipitation-and-temperature-outlook-for-this-summer/


[fuel, dry, and spark]
*The key triggers of the costly 2017 wildfire season 
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180605103439.htm>*
Series of wildfire factors that culminated in the big burns of 2017
Date: June 5, 2018
Source: University of Colorado at Boulder
Summary: New research shows that three major 'switches' affecting 
wildfire -- fuel, aridity, and ignition -- were either flipped on and/or 
kept on longer than expected last year, triggering one of the largest 
and costliest US wildfire seasons in recent decades...

    "We expect to see more fire seasons like we saw last year," said
    Megan Cattau, an Earth Lab researcher and a co-author on the study.
    "Thus, it is becoming increasingly critical that we strengthen our
    wildfire prediction and warning systems, support suppression and
    recovery efforts and develop sustained policies that help us coexist
    with fire."

The paper notes that computer climate models project an increased risk 
of extreme wet winters in California and a decrease in summer 
precipitation across the entire West Coast. Those models also tend to 
project a delay in the onset of fall rain and snow.
Although naturally occurring climate variability influences 
environmental conditions that affect the wildfire season, that variation 
is superimposed on an anthropogenically warmer world, so climate change 
is magnifying the effects of heat and precipitation extremes, Balch said.

    "The 2018 wildfire season is already underway and here at home in
    the southern Rockies, fuels are very dry," said Balch. "June is
    forecasted to be a busy month in terms of wildfires due to severe
    drought and low snowpack."...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180605103439.htm


[Opinion]
*The great Canadian climate delusion 
<https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-is-canada-going-to-be-the-first-country-to-break-apart-over-climate/>*
Thomas Homer-Dixon and Yonatan Strauch
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published June 1, 2018
- - - -
Continued investment in the oil sands generally, and in the Trans 
Mountain pipeline specifically, means Canada is doubling down on a 
no-win bet. We're betting that the world will fail to meet the reduction 
targets in the Paris Climate Agreement, thus needing more and more oil, 
including our expensive and polluting bitumen. We're betting, in other 
words, on climate disaster. If, however, the world finally gets its act 
together and significantly cuts emissions, then Canada will lose much of 
its investment in the oil sands and the Trans Mountain pipeline 
expansion, because the first oil to be cut will be higher-cost oil such 
as ours.

    Heads or tails, we lose. That's the idiocy of it. We can't have our
    lucrative oil sands profits and a safe climate, too.

This isn't just rhetoric. Canada has no plan to meet its 2030 Paris 
Agreement emission targets, because it's virtually impossible to do so 
if the oil sands' output rises to Alberta's cap of 100 million tonnes of 
carbon dioxide emissions a year. Under the agreement, the global oil 
market won't have room for our oil, either. Scenarios to limit warming 
to 2 degrees, the Paris Agreement's bottom-line target, clearly show 
that oil demand must decline...
- - - -
More fundamentally, we've given up being honest with ourselves. We're 
increasingly living in a delusional fantasy land in which our oil sands 
policies make environmental and economic sense.
As the planet warms, and as the world's energy transition accelerates, 
the gamble at the heart of Canadian oil sands policy will only become 
harder to sustain. The more some of us try to hide that reality with 
double-speak and wilful self-delusion, the more the fissures in our 
federation will deepen, because others will call out the lies. So, the 
path we're on - the path we took another huge step down this past week, 
courtesy of the federal Liberals - only leads to a fractured country. 
It's our choice whether to keep going...
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-is-canada-going-to-be-the-first-country-to-break-apart-over-climate/


[A dark view is not untrue, also not assured]
*These people speak the truth about the urgency of the climate crisis! 
#WeDontHaveTime to wait <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WiDE17Imlo>*
We Don't Have Time
Published  May 30, 2018   Video, transcript:
"Oil drives you crazy. Oil corrupts politics. Oil buys politicians."
Some scientists are indicating we should make plans to adapt to a four 
degree hotter world. One wonders what portion of the population could 
adapt to such a world.  Just a few thousand people seeking refuge in the 
Arctic or Antarctica.
Business as usual means about four degrees warmer, which is 
approximately one ice age in the opposite direction. I need to stress 
this. The Paris Agreement is not a walk in the park. It's half an ice 
age in the other direction.
One example that Martin raised in terms of sea level rise. Based on 
today's temperatures we are going to hit two meters of sea level rise, 
no matter what.
Half a billion people are affected in India alone.
Most of Europe will experience about four degrees of warming by the end 
of the century which is pretty disastrous.
2017 was a record high for fossil fuel CO2 emissions.
We have to move to decarbonizing the world energy system.
And that means a lot of the known fossil reserves need to stay in the 
ground.
We really need deep sustained cuts right now.
Previous speakers have made clear that we are coming into a very 
difficult time.
We are in a race against time.
It takes a double whammy to understand.
It takes repeated shocks.
Governments and the media simply cannot say that they did not know.
What the hell are they thinking?!
We Don't Have Time to speculate.
We Don't Have Time is absolutely correct.
As we know We Don't Have Time.
There is no more time.
We Don't Have Time to wait...
We Don't Have Time but we do have a way.
This is the heroes on the ground.
It is very simple but it continues to change lives every day.
He came back to Stockholm and he was devastated by all the trash he saw. 
He started picking trash while running.
We have created the widest range of green burgers in the industry.
We will carbon compensate every email being sent.
Pope Francis made an urgent call to protect the people on Earth least 
responsible for climate change.
We need a global movement that demands real change...
It's our ethical responsibility.
This is what we need to take care of...
Lead by example to solve the climate crisis.
There are not technological or economic barriers. We're gonna make it, 
but we're in the final stages of the political economy battle, where 
corrupted politicians twisted by the interests of Big Oil are still 
resisting. It is movements like We Don't Have Time that will break the 
hammerlock of the oil industry and enable humanity to save itself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WiDE17Imlo


[Geoengineering Watch]
*Geoengineering Monitor <http://www.geoengineeringmonitor.org/>*
We are proud to show you our new Geoengineering Monitor website, stocked 
with new resources, analysis and, soon, opportunities to get involved in 
the global fight against climate geoengineering. This year, we will be 
sending you updates through this newsletter quarterly, and keeping you 
updated more regularly on the website and social media – follow us on 
Facebook and Twitter to stay in the loop!
*What does the year ahead look like?

**We are looking at a few key fights in global governance:*
     The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is where 
governments debate how to deal with climate change. With the urgent need 
to limit global warming, some governments and scientists are pushing for 
text or commitments that accept geoengineering as an option. 
Geoengineering has been a hot topic in the hallways of this forum, but 
it's not clear how or where it may enter the official negotiation 
process. Our work in this forum is communicating the evidence and 
arguments against geoengineering and heading off the “normalization” of 
geoengineering.

     May 2018, Bonn, Germany: the “Talanoa Dialogue” of the UNFCCC 
kicked off. Governments and non-state actors submitted documents that 
outlined their vision for dealing with climate change. Linda Schneider 
from Heinrich Boll Foundation shares an overview of where geoengineering 
fit into these submissions.

     December 2018, Katowice, Poland: The UNFCCC Conference of the 
Parties will meet – stay tuned for updates on how to be involved!

     The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is producing a 
report on limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C that will be released 
in October. Worryingly, the IPCC is seriously considering geoengineering 
as an option and giving it undue credence in its upcoming reports. Our 
2017 publication, the Big Bad Fix, gives more detail on the fights in 
the IPCC.

Outside of the stale UN air conditioning, we are building momentum this 
year around planned outdoor experiments in North and South America. 
These experiments represent a slippery slope of larger experiments and 
eventual deployment of geoengineering. Our next issue of Geoengineering 
Monitor will zoom in on those experiments, why we oppose them and how to 
stop them...
http://www.geoengineeringmonitor.org/


[Can't we just watch it on TV?]
*Alien apocalypse: Can any civilization make it through climate change? 
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180604172652.htm>*
Date: June 4, 2018
Source: University of Rochester
Summary: Does the universe contain planets with truly sustainable 
civilizations? Or does every civilization that may have arisen in the 
cosmos last only a few centuries before it falls to the climate change 
it triggers? Astrophysicists have developed a mathematical model to 
illustrate how a technologically advanced population and its planet 
might develop together, putting climate change in a cosmic context...
- - - -
"Astrobiology is the study of life and its possibilities in a planetary 
context," says Frank, who is also author of the new book Light of the 
Stars: Alien Worlds and the Fate of the Earth, which draws on this 
study. "That includes 'exo-civilizations' or what we usually call aliens."

Frank and his colleagues point out that discussions about climate change 
rarely take place in this broader context -- one that considers the 
probability that this is not the first time in cosmic history that a 
planet and its biosphere have evolved into something like what we've 
created on Earth. "If we're not the universe's first civilization," 
Frank says, "that means there are likely to be rules for how the fate of 
a young civilization like our own progresses."...
- - - -
Using their mathematical model, the researchers found four potential 
scenarios that might occur in a civilization-planet system:

    Die-off: The population and the planet's state (indicated by
    something like its average temperature) rise very quickly.
    Eventually, the population peaks and then declines rapidly as the
    rising planetary temperature makes conditions harder to survive. A
    steady population level is achieved, but it's only a fraction of the
    peak population. "Imagine if 7 out of 10 people you knew died
    quickly," Frank says. "It's not clear a complex technological
    civilization could survive that kind of change."
    Sustainability: The population and the temperature rise but
    eventually both come to steady values without any catastrophic
    effects. This scenario occurs in the models when the population
    recognizes it is having a negative effect on the planet and switches
    from using high-impact resources, such as oil, to low-impact
    resources, such as solar energy.
    Collapse without resource change: The population and temperature
    both rise rapidly until the population reaches a peak and drops
    precipitously. In these models civilization collapses, though it is
    not clear if the species itself completely dies outs.
    Collapse with resource change: The population and the temperature
    rise, but the population recognizes it is causing a problem and
    switches from high-impact resources to low-impact resources. Things
    appear to level off for a while, but the response turns out to have
    come too late, and the population collapses anyway.

"The last scenario is the most frightening," Frank says. "Even if you 
did the right thing, if you waited too long, you could still have your 
population collapse."...
- - - -
"If you change the earth's climate enough, you might not be able to 
change it back," he says. "Even if you backed off and started to use 
solar or other less impactful resources, it could be too late, because 
the planet has already been changing. These models show we can't just 
think about a population evolving on its own. We have to think about our 
planets and civilizations co-evolving."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180604172652.htm


[computer simulations]
*Storm's coming: New technique for simulation of extreme weather events 
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180604112451.htm>*
Date: June 4, 2018
Source: Kanazawa University
Summary: Scientists have developed a new method for generating data for 
ensemble simulation of extreme weather phenomena. He tested the method 
in simulation of a typhoon and a global warming simulation, and 
successfully created the necessary range of data in each case.
"The new method has several advantages over previously used approaches," 
Taniguchi says. "It has high computational stability, it can begin at 
any time and date, and it doesn't require any particular atmospheric 
structure; so, it can be used for simulating any type of weather event."
- - - -
The method was demonstrated to provide suitable initial conditions for 
the typhoon and global warming simulations.
He notes the new method can provide the variety of conditions needed to 
explore the broad possibilities of meteorological phenomena. It could 
also allow assessment of changes in the probability of extreme events 
based on a wide spread of wind speed, pressure, and rainfall data.
The new method, after some further refinement and development, could 
contribute to improving the practical use of future global warming 
experiments in estimation of the probability of risk factors for extreme 
events and related impact assessments...
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180604112451.htm


[Canada - News]
*BC Reforestation Will Take Years After 2017 Wildfires 
<https://weather.com/en-CA/canada/news/news/2018-06-04-bc-reforestation>*
By Renee Bernard
VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) - A year after the province's most devastating 
wildfire season, the work begins on reforestation.
But replacing the trees will be just one of the goals in the coming years.
"We don't want to be setting up the future for another series of 
wildfires like what we saw last year," says John Betts with the Western 
Forestry Contractors Association, who believes it will take up to four 
years to reforest what was lost.
He notes that 1.2 million hectares were scorched, and about 220,000 
hectares will need to be replanted. That's almost as much land as 
covered by Metro Vancouver.
Not all of the new trees will be harvested. He says forests will also be 
replanted for environmental reasons, like preserving habitat. The 
planting of trees is also an essential part of the province's Forest 
Carbon Initiative, to mitigate climate change.
Which is why it will be important that the seedlings of today don't go 
up in smoke prematurely.
"We are going to try to fashion the landscape so we don't suffer 
catastrophic losses," says Betts.
One way is to design forests that are less at risk of catching fire.
Betts points to a tree plantation in northern BC near Mackenzie that is 
20 years old. It has withstood forest fires that have swept through the 
area and he says that's because it has less underbrush, which translates 
into fuel for fires, than the surrounding forest.
"Prescribed burning can create a stand of trees that are remarkably 
resistant to really intense fires," he says, admitting, though, that 
controlled burning has fallen out of favour because people complain 
about the smoke.
"We can also plant other species. There may be cases where we want to 
make sure that we have strong plantations of deciduous trees because 
they are less flammable. They might actually work as a fuel break. They 
might actually stop a fire from running from one end to the other."
He says both the province and Ottawa could invest more money in studying 
ways to create more resilient forests, rather than spend money on 
firefighting.
This year, his industry will see 270 million seedlings in the ground and 
that should increase to 300 million seedlings in 2020.
Mother Nature has already prevented a quick start to this planting 
season. A big snowpack and washed out roads meant tree planters had to 
wait before starting their work.
https://weather.com/en-CA/canada/news/news/2018-06-04-bc-reforestation


[going, going...]
*'Carbon bubble' coming that could wipe trillions from the global 
economy <https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180604121041.htm>*
Demand for fossil fuels will decline in the near future with major 
macroeconomic and geopolitical consequences
Date: June 4, 2018
Source: Radboud University Nijmegen
Summary:
Unlike current expectations, new research suggests that the prospects of 
the fossil-fuel industry are not bright, and that its demise may have 
profound economic and geopolitical consequences. Relying on ground 
breaking modelling techniques, researchers show that the consumption of 
fossil fuels will slow down or decline in the near future, as a result 
of ongoing technological change, potentially exacerbated by new climate 
policies...
- - - -
*A new financial crisis?*
The study findings support the existence of a carbon bubble which, if 
not deflated early, could lead to a discounted global wealth loss of 
between 1 to 4 trillion dollars, a loss comparable to what triggered the 
2007 financial crisis. "If countries keep investing in equipment to 
search for, extract, process and transport fossil fuels, even though 
their demand declines, they will end up losing money on these 
investments on top of their losses due to limited exports," Mercure 
explains. "Countries should instead carefully deflate the carbon bubble 
through investment in a variety of industries and steady divestment. The 
way in which this is done will determine the impact of the ongoing 
low-carbon transition on the financial sector."

Hector Pollitt, study co-author from Cambridge Econometrics and C-EENRG, 
adds: "This new research clearly shows the mismatch between the 
reductions in fossil fuel consumption required to meet carbon targets 
and the behaviour of investors. Governments have an important role to 
play in emphasising commitments to meet the Paris Agreement to ensure 
that the significant detrimental economic and geopolitical consequences 
we have identified are avoided."

*Divestment and creative destruction*
The process of transition towards a low-carbon economy is now becoming 
inevitable, as policies supporting this change have been developed and 
gradually implemented for some time. "New efficiency standards imply 
that we do more with the same amounts of energy, as older, less 
efficient technologies are gradually phased out. The transition is 
therefore irreversible; however its pace can vary according to whether 
and how new climate policies are implemented."

The scientists conclude that further economic damage from a potential 
bubble burst could be avoided by decarbonising early. "Divestment is a 
prudential thing to do. We should be carefully looking at where we are 
investing our money. For instance, much like companies, pension funds 
and other institutions currently invest in fossil-fuel assets. Following 
recommendations from central banks, commercial banks are increasingly 
looking at the financial risks of stranded fossil-fuel assets, even 
though their possible impacts have not yet been fully determined. Until 
now, observers mostly paid attention to the likely effectiveness of 
climate policies, but not to the ongoing and effectively irreversible 
technological transition. This level of 'creative destruction' appears 
inevitable now and must be carefully managed," Mercure concludes.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180604121041.htm


[No more Hawaii conferences]
*No Fly Climate Sci - Welcome <http://noflyclimatesci.org/>*
We are Earth scientists, academics, and members of the public who either 
don't fly or who fly less.
We feel that global warming poses a clear, present, and dire danger for 
humanity. In an era of obvious climate change, we believe that it's 
important to align our daily life choices with that reality. Actions 
speak louder than words.
We try to fly as little as possible while pushing for systemic change, 
especially through our home institutions. These are our stories - why we 
fly less, and what that means in a society that still rewards frequent 
flying.
Why the focus on academics? Academics are expected to attend 
conferences, workshops, and meetings. Many academics, including Earth 
scientists, have large climate footprints dominated by flying. 
Meanwhile, colleges and universities ostensibly exist to make a better 
future, especially for young people. We want our institutions to live up 
to that promise...
- - - -
We also hope to increase awareness of the climate impact of frequent 
flying outside of the scientific community. Flying currently accounts 
for less than 10% of the global climate impact, but it often dominates 
the emission profiles of the globally privileged few who can afford it.
The site is maintained by an Earth scientist, with no outside funding or 
partisan agenda. Each member speaks strictly on his or her own behalf. 
Joining this site isn't necessarily a promise not to fly.
http://noflyclimatesci.org/


*This Day in Climate History - June 6, 2001 
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20010606/aponline204019_000.htm> 
- from D.R. Tucker*

    "In Europe Bush has meetings on global warming scheduled with
    various officials. Many Europeans protested vigorously after Bush,
    citing looming energy shortages, in March reversed a campaign
    promise to limit CO2 emissions from power plants.
    "The 24-page National Academy of Sciences report, an assessment
    based on previous studies about the phenomenon, says, 'The primary
    source, fossil fuel burning, has released roughly twice as much
    carbon dioxide as would be required to account for the observed
    increase' in temperature.
    "The report also blames global warming on other greenhouse gases
    directly affected by human activity: methane, ozone, nitrous oxide
    and chlorofluorocarbons."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20010606/aponline204019_000.htm 

http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=3711&method=full 



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