[TheClimate.Vote] October 8, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Oct 8 09:25:44 EDT 2018
/October 8, 2018/
[First, the Prize]
*Nobel prize in economics won by Nordhaus and Romer for work on climate
change and growth - as it happened
<https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/08/nobel-prize-2018-sveriges-riksbank-in-economic-sciences-awarded-live-updates>*
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences has been awarded to two
American men for work on climate change and sustainable growth
Why they won
<https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/08/nobel-prize-2018-sveriges-riksbank-in-economic-sciences-awarded-live-updates?page=with:block-5bbb2d12e4b0494d8052c779#block-5bbb2d12e4b0494d8052c779>
The official announcement
<https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/08/nobel-prize-2018-sveriges-riksbank-in-economic-sciences-awarded-live-updates?page=with:block-5bbb2cd1e4b0b8830be6b96c#block-5bbb2cd1e4b0b8830be6b96c>
Romer: Climate change crisis can be fixed, if we work at it
<https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/08/nobel-prize-2018-sveriges-riksbank-in-economic-sciences-awarded-live-updates?page=with:block-5bbb2d12e4b0494d8052c779#block-5bbb2d12e4b0494d8052c779>
- - - -
[BBC says]
*Climate report: Scientists politely urge 'act now, idiots'
<https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309>*
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309
- - - -
[NYTimes$]
*Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as
2040*
<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html>
By Coral Davenport - Oct. 7, 2018
INCHEON, South Korea -- A landmark report from the United Nations’
scientific panel on climate change paints a far more dire picture of the
immediate consequences of climate change than previously thought and
says that avoiding the damage requires transforming the world economy at
a speed and scale that has "no documented historic precedent."
The report, issued on Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, a group of scientists convened by the United Nations to guide
world leaders, describes a world of worsening food shortages and
wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040 -- a period
well within the lifetime of much of the global population.
The report "is quite a shock, and quite concerning," said Bill Hare, an
author of previous I.P.C.C. reports and a physicist with Climate
Analytics, a nonprofit organization. "We were not aware of this just a
few years ago." The report was the first to be commissioned by world
leaders under the Paris agreement, the 2015 pact by nations to fight
global warming.
The authors found that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the
current rate, the atmosphere will warm up by as much as 2.7 degrees
Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels by 2040,
inundating coastlines and intensifying droughts and poverty. Previous
work had focused on estimating the damage if average temperatures were
to rise by a larger number, 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius),
because that was the threshold scientists previously considered for the
most severe effects of climate change...
- - - --
At 3.6 degrees of warming, the report predicts a "disproportionately
rapid evacuation" of people from the tropics. "In some parts of the
world, national borders will become irrelevant," said Aromar Revi,
director of the Indian Institute for Human Settlements and an author of
the report. "You can set up a wall to try to contain 10,000 and 20,000
and one million people, but not 10 million."
The report also finds that, in the likelihood that governments fail to
avert 2.7 degrees of warming, another scenario is possible: The world
could overshoot that target, heat up by more than 3.6 degrees, and then
through a combination of lowering emissions and deploying carbon capture
technology, bring the temperature back down below the 2.7-degree threshold.
In that scenario, some damage would be irreversible, the report found.
All coral reefs would die. However, the sea ice that would disappear in
the hotter scenario would return once temperatures had cooled off.
"For governments, the idea of overshooting the target but then coming
back to it is attractive because then they don’t have to make such rapid
changes," Dr. Shindell said. "But it has a lot of disadvantages."
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html
- - - -
*[**IPCC report <http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/>**]
Read the report
*http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/
[IPCC press conference: "risk is revised upward" ]
IPCC SR15 Press Conference Live Oct 8th 2018
<https://youtu.be/12S3dKrxj7c?t=630>
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Incheon, South Korea
https://youtu.be/12S3dKrxj7c?t=658
- - - - -
[HuffPo]
*New UN Climate Report Dims Hope For Averting Catastrophic Global
Warming
<https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ipcc-report_us_5bba177be4b0876eda9ef1d7>*
Keeping temperatures from rising beyond the Paris agreement’s ambitious
target will require unprecedented social changes.
By Alexander C. Kaufman and Chris D’Angelo
“This is one of the most important reports ever produced by the IPCC,
and certainly one of the most needed,” Hoesung Lee, the chair of the
body, said at a press conference in South Korea on Monday. “Climate
change is already affecting people, livelihood and ecosystems all around
the world.”
He continued: “Every bit of warming matters.”
The report ― authored by 91 researchers and editors from 40 countries
citing more than 6,000 scientific references and released Sunday night
following a summit in Incheon, South Korea ― details how difficult it
will be to keep the planet from warming beyond the 1.5-degree target,
considered the aspirational goal of the 2015 Paris climate accord.
To meet that target, the world would need to aggressively phase out
fossil fuels to meet net-zero emissions by mid-century, and remove
carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases out of the atmosphere from
then on, according to the IPCC. More immediately, emissions would have
to drop by about 45 percent below 2010 levels by 2030...
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ipcc-report_us_5bba177be4b0876eda9ef1d7
[Blue Virginia]
*Required Reading for Governor Ralph Northam on Climate Change
<http://bluevirginia.us/2018/10/required-reading-for-governor-ralph-northam-on-climate-change>*
By glenbesa - October 7, 2018
(Later tonight, it is anticipated that) the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change will issue its Summary for Policymakers of its Special
Report on Global Warming of 1.5C.
This report should be a required reading for all of us, but especially
for public officials, including Governor Ralph Northam, who have the
authority to make policy that can reduce our carbon pollution emissions.
Although the Paris Climate Accord set a goal of keeping the global
average temperature increase below 2C, that agreement also acknowledged
that countries should actually strive to limit that increase to 1.5C to
minimize the harm done by global warming.
Climate science has advanced since the 2015 UN climate conference in
Paris. Climate scientists realize that the 1.5C target should no longer
be just aspirational if we are to avoid unacceptable consequences of a
warming climate. Our own anecdotal experiences with extreme weather
events, sea level rise and the shrinking arctic ice associated with the
current 1C increase make it clear that we have no time to spare in
moving away from fossil fuels and taking other bold action to reduce
greenhouse gases...
- - - -
In anticipation of the issuance of the IPCC report, Auden Schendler and
Andrew P. Jones commented on the findings in a column this weekend in
the New York Times entitled: Stopping Climate Change Is Hopeless. Let's
Do It. - It begins with how we live our lives every moment of every day.
The column is an answer to, albeit not a direct acknowledgement of, the
news last week out of the Trump Administration justifying its abandoning
climate protection measures. The draft statement by the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration justifying President Trump's
decision to reverse federal fuel-efficiency standards for cars and light
trucks argued that with a 4C increase by 2100 already cooked into the
climate, "the planet's fate is… sealed."...
- - - -
While well intended, Governor Northam's recently announced climate
initiatives to look at possible actions to address climate polluting
emissions from cars and trucks and fracked gas infrastructure are far
too modest. The Governor's directive to reduce emissions from fossil
fuel power plants is more significant, yet will take decades to reverse
the harm done to our climate by the two fracked-gas pipelines he supports.
Taking Governor Northam at his word that he sincerely wants to implement
meaningful actions to address climate change, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change's Summary for Policymakers of its Special Report
on Global Warming of 1.5C should be a call to action for real, immediate
and significant efforts within the Governor's authority to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions. Those actions should start, but not end, with
shutting down the Atlantic Coast and Mountain Valley Pipelines.
Here's hoping that Governor Northam and everyone else take the time to
read the IPCC's new report and then do what is within their power to
reduce the greenhouse gas pollution that is choking our planet.
http://bluevirginia.us/2018/10/required-reading-for-governor-ralph-northam-on-climate-change
[Opinion]
*Our climate is not for sale
<https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/410295-our-climate-is-not-for-sale>*
BY REP. HANK JOHNSON (D-GA.) AND MICHAEL SHANK, OPINION CONTRIBUTORS -
10/07/18
As President Trump's Environmental Protection Agency drops "climate
change", and its impact on children, from its latest rule on
hydrofluorocarbons, it is time to talk honestly about science.
Americans are busy working, taking care of their kids and loved ones and
trying to save for the future. It is understandable that many do not
have time to read academic journals and detailed scientific reports.
In our system of government, representatives are elected to make
decisions on key policy matters. But elected representatives are no
different than the people who elect them. With a congressional district
representing, on average, more than 700,000 constituents and hundreds of
pressing issues, it can be hard to find time to consult with climate
science experts or empirically analyze academic articles on climate change.
Elected representatives, however, have a unique responsibility to
educate themselves about important policy matters. Ignorance is not an
excuse, given the staff and other resources at the disposal of Congress.
Worse, willful ignorance -- often for crass political purposes -- is a
dereliction of duty and a disservice to the American people.
It is therefore inexcusable that some members of Congress and other
politicians continue to ignore or plead ignorance to the irrefutable
science, and dangers, of climate change...
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/410295-our-climate-is-not-for-sale
[Opinion South Africa]
*The Avengers, climate change and the need for tough decisions
<https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-10-05-the-avengers-climate-change-and-the-need-for-tough-decisions/>*
By Dr Prabhat Upadhyaya - 5 October 2018
Ahead of the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's
Global Warming of 1.5C report, the time to make tough decisions is upon us.
The movie Avengers: Infinity War charts the attempts of Marvel universe'
superheroes to thwart the mad titan Thanos from collecting the six
cosmic "infinity stones" for completing the infinity gauntlet. Once
completed, the gauntlet would give him the power to destroy half of a
planet's living beings literally with the snap of a finger. Thanos'
ultimate goal is a universe devoid of suffering.
Sounds implausible, but in the movie, Thanos himself explains his
motivation: The Universe is finite; its resources are finite; if life is
left unchecked, it will cease to exist, and therefore it needs
correction. From his perspective the required correction is a random,
dispassionate and fair genocide. This drives his decision.
In his attempt to find a way to stop Thanos, the master of mystic arts,
Doctor Strange, uses the time stone for travelling into the future. He
views the possible alternate future scenarios - all 14,000,605 of them -
and concludes that there is only one in which Thanos can be stopped.
This one scenario determined a fundamental decision that Strange takes,
which is expected to influence the future movies of the Marvel universe.
This is fiction, but as a metaphor it is a useful tool when considering
the steep challenge posed by climate change to all of us and the
necessity to take tough decisions that it will demand from us.
In its latest report, Unlocking the Inclusive Growth Story of the 21st
Century, the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate emphasises
that there is only one economic path that is sustainable - "one where
growth is driven by the interaction between technological innovation,
sustainable infrastructure investment, and increased resource
productivity". This path is based on five key economic systems:
clean energy systems,
smarter urban development,
sustainable land use,
wise water management, and a circular industrial economy.
In the commission's own words, "this is the only growth story of the
21st century" that can safely take us to a New Climate Economy.
The commission also emphasises that if we do not make a decisive shift
now in pursuing growth and development, by 2030 we will pass the point
by which we can keep the global average temperature rise to well below 2
Deg C - a target agreed under the Paris Agreement. Describing the next
two to three years as the "use it or lose it moment", they argue that
the logic underlying policy and investment decisions needs to be
fundamentally revisited.
However, the decision-making for enabling climate action continues to be
slow and cumbersome across countries. This is not to say that national
climate policies are not in place, but that they are not ambitious
enough. The report says that policy-makers in most countries "still have
the handbrake on"; a phrase that echoes the frustration of common
citizen and activists across South Africa and in other developing
countries. It chastises policy-makers for "not taking sufficiently bold
action to escape the legacy economic systems" and stresses that we are
at a point where we need to start making tough decisions.
The parallels with the Infinity War continue to resonate here. During
the course of Avengers: Infinity War, characters are called upon to make
tough decisions when facing irresolvable moral dilemmas, particularly
those related to trading lives. Flowing from his realisation that there
is only one favourable scenario is Doctor Strange's fundamental decision
to let go of the time stone - something that he is duty bound to save
with his life - to save Iron Man from Thanos.
Similarly, for addressing threats posed by climate change, tough
decisions are now needed both at the individual and policy-making
levels. The sooner we - individuals, communities, organisations - come
to terms with the seriousness and urgency of climate change, the more we
can put pressure on policy-makers to act on climate change. The sooner
policy-makers factor in the realities of climate change in their
decision-making, the greater the chance of avoiding dangerous impacts of
climate change.
While individual action can drive action from the bottom up, decisions
on governing climate change need to be made at multiple levels -
international, national, sub-national and local. The Paris Agreement is
built on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) made by countries
and provides us with a global agreement that is complemented by national
legislations and strategies.
But various scientific analyses show that these commitments, even if
implemented fully, won't be enough to maintain the temperature rise
within the safe limits of 1.5 Deg C above pre-industrial levels, as
already prescribed by the science. We need to urgently modify old and
create new systems to meet our production and consumption demands across
key economic sectors.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and national
governments are currently finalising a special report on the
implications of breaching 1.5 Deg C temperature rise for humankind and
for the planet Earth. Some of the authors involved in the process are
indicating that we are "nowhere near on track" to avoid warming beyond
the 1.5 Deg C target.
While time is not going to be on our side, key decisions need to be
taken. The report recommends a people-centred approach to ensure
lasting, equitable growth to ensure a just transition. Our political
elites need to create mechanisms that are people-centric to develop the
trust that will allow them to take hard decisions. Politically these are
going to be unpopular decisions in the short term as they need to
challenge vested interests such as coal and the Minerals Energy Complex.
However, these are unavoidable if South Africa wants to break the
shackles of an anachronistic economic system.
Take a moment to reflect how clean, smart, sustainable, wise, and
circular our individual choices driving our economic systems are. That
will give an indication of the task ahead for us in each of these
economic spheres. We need to make some very important and fundamental
policy and investment choices that address structural inequities. Not in
the next 100 years, not by the next generation, but in each year going
forward, we will all be called upon to make choices and find innovative
solutions for addressing climate change.
We do not have access to any magic to control time or change reality,
but in these fundamental choices, we have the opportunities. More
specifically, in the interaction between technological innovation,
sustainable infrastructure investments and increased resource
productivity, we also have the tools that need to be boldly and urgently
mobilised to address the most important moral challenge of our time -
creating a people-centric new climate economy. DM
Dr Prabhat Upadhyaya is Senior Policy Analyst, Climate and Energy, with
WWF South Africa.
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-10-05-the-avengers-climate-change-and-the-need-for-tough-decisions/
[video]
*Young Scientist: Can We Change? [Avoid Catastrophic Consequences]
<https://youtu.be/40xW0GPy-HE>*
Climate State
Published on Oct 6, 2018
The second installment of Dr. Aaron Thierry's three part exploration of
our critical place in the climate change story, delivered at the
University of Sheffield. Here Dr. Thierry investigates whether or not it
is possible for human society to make the changes necessary to avoid the
catastrophic consequences of climate change.
Part 1: The Risks and Realities of Climate Change. Must We Change?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMkYInlh85c
Part 2: (above)
Part 3: Will We Change? Courage in the Anthropocene
https://youtu.be/sweGNovBir8
The Carbon Neutral University Network is an open network of
students, staff and the general public committed to encouraging and
developing solutions to support the University of Sheffield to
become Carbon Neutral by 2025.
https://youtu.be/40xW0GPy-HE
*This Day in Climate History - October 8, 1979
<http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20074765,00.html> -
from D.R. Tucker*
October 8, 1979: People Magazine reports on growing concerns about a
human-caused climate crisis.
CO2 Could Change Our Climate and Flood the Earth--Up to Here
<https://people.com/archive/co2-could-change-our-climate-and-flood-the-earth-up-to-here-vol-12-no-15/>
The scenario reads like an Irwin Allen disaster movie. Early in the 21st
century, carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere thickens ominously.
The CO2 admits sunlight but prevents escape of heat from the planet's
surface, creating a situation known as the "greenhouse effect." Average
temperatures increase, from 3 to 20F, melting ice at the poles. Oceans
rise everywhere by perhaps 20 feet, inundating coastal cities. Some 25
percent of the world's population must flee to higher ground. Food
shortages follow. All is chaos...
- - - -
With CO2, MacDonald is of course presenting the worst case scenario with
great flair..."MacDonald realizes that if he is wrong, his warnings will
sound ridiculous. If not, world catastrophe will result--"not 200 years
from now but within our lifetime."
http://www.people.com/people/archive/article/0,,20074765,00.html
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