[TheClimate.Vote] October 9, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Oct 9 10:03:30 EDT 2018
/October 9, 2018/
[Courts pushing for change]
*Dutch appeals court upholds landmark climate change ruling
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/dutch-appeals-court-upholds-landmark-climate-change-ruling>*
Netherlands ordered to increase emissions cuts in historic ruling that
puts 'all world governments on notice'
A court in The Hague has upheld a historic legal order on the Dutch
government to accelerate carbon emissions cuts, a day after the world's
climate scientists warned that time was running out to avoid dangerous
warming.
Appeal court judges ruled that the severity and scope of the climate
crisis demanded greenhouse gas reductions of at least 25% by 2020 -
measured against 1990 levels - higher than the 17% drop planned by Mark
Rutte's liberal administration.
The ruling - which was greeted with whoops and cheers in the courtroom -
will put wind in the sails of a raft of similar cases being planned
around the world, from Norway to New Zealand and from the UK to Uganda.
Marjan Minnesma, the director of the Urgenda campaign which brought the
case, called on political leaders to start fighting climate change
rather than court actions.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/dutch-appeals-court-upholds-landmark-climate-change-ruling
[Never too late to start the race]
*Responding to climate change is far more like a marathon than a sprint.
<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/ipcc-special-report-on-1-5oc/>*
The IPCC 1.5C Special report (#SR15) has been released:
The press release <http://ipcc.ch/pdf/session48/pr_181008_P48_spm_en.pdf>
Frequently Asked Questions <http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_faq.pdf>
The Summary For Policy Makers (SPM)
<http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf>
The full report <http://ipcc.ch/report/sr15/>
Thoughts
It's well worth reading the SPM and FAQs before confidently pronouncing
on the utility or impact of this report. The FAQs include the following
questions:
FAQ 1.1: Why are we talking about 1.5C?
FAQ 1.2: How close are we to 1.5C?
FAQ 2.1: What kind of pathways limit warming to 1.5C and are we on
track?
FAQ 2.2: What do energy supply and demand have to do with limiting
warming to 1.5C?
FAQ 3.1: What are the impacts of 1.5C and 2C of warming?
FAQ 4.1: What transitions could enable limiting global warming to 1.5C?
FAQ 4.2: What are Carbon Dioxide Removal and negative emissions?
FAQ 4.3: Why is adaptation important in a 1.5C warmer world?
FAQ 5.1: What are the connections between sustainable development
and limiting global warming to 1.5C?
FAQ 5.2: What are the pathways to achieving poverty reduction and
reducing inequalities while reaching the 1.5C world?
First thing to remember is that this special report was commissioned
from the UNFCCC on the back of the Paris Accord (which is not the
process for main IPCC reports). Secondly, the IPCC is constrained to
only assess published literature or otherwise publically available data.
This means that if no groups have studied a question, there isn't much
to assess. Sometimes the gaps are apparent even in the scoping of the
reports which can encourage people to focus on them at an early stage
and have publications ready in time for the final report, but one of the
main impacts of any of these reports is to influence research directions
going forward.
-- -
*What does 1.5 degrees C mean?*
The SR15 has defined 1.5C as the warming from the period 1850-1900. This
is 2.7F and about 1/3rd of an ice age unit (the amount of warming from
the depths of the last ice age 20,000 years ago to the mid-19th Century).
- -
This baseline is not really "pre-industrial", and there have been some
interesting discussions on what that phrase might be usefully defined as
(Hawkins et al ,2017; Schurer et al, 2017), but this baseline is the
easiest to adopt since estimates of climate impacts are being based on
climate models from CMIP5 which effectively use that same baseline. The
timing of projected impacts is a little sensitive to definitional issues
with the "global mean" temperature, and whether the instrumental record
is biased with respect to changes in the mean - particularly in the
earlier part of the record when the data is relatively sparse.
- - -
At current rates, we'll hit 1.5C on a decadal-average basis by about
2040. The first year above 1.5C will occur substantially earlier, likely
associated with a big El Nino event in the late 2020s/early 2030s...[more]
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/ipcc-special-report-on-1-5oc/
[*it's about 3* - important video says it could be 2 or 4 or even 5 ]
*The Most Important Number in Climate Change
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7-4wOs2AmI>*
YaleClimateConnections
Published on Oct 8, 2018
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is the measure of how much the planet
will warm in response to a given amount of Greenhouse gas pollution. It
is the most important number in climate change science, and past
estimates of increased warming may have been too low.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7-4wOs2AmI
*Vietnam's children and the fear of climate change
<https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45738136>*
By David Shukman
BBC Science editor, Can Tho Province, Vietnam
One little girl draws a nightmarish picture of people calling for rescue
as they drown in rising water.
Another sketches a huge snake with sharp teeth to show the power and
danger of flooding.
These disturbing images are the work of children at a primary school in
Can Tho province, a region of Vietnam that is regularly swamped.
They live in the Mekong Delta, a huge plain of rivers and rice-fields
that's popular with tourists but lies only just above the surface of the
ocean.
The land itself is sinking and, at the same time, the level of the sea
is rising, as global warming causes the water to expand and the ice caps
to melt.
That's why the delta, one of the world's greatest centres for rice
production and home to 18 million people, is recognised as especially
vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
- - - - -
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45738136
[New York Post carried this story]
*Terrifying climate change warning: 12 years until we're doomed
<https://nypost.com/2018/10/08/terrifying-climate-change-warning-12-years-until-were-doomed/>*
By Lia Eustachewich
Earth is on track to face devastating consequences of climate change --
extreme drought, food shortages and deadly flooding -- unless there's an
"unprecedented" effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, a new
United Nations report warns.
The planet's surface has already warmed by 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees
Fahrenheit) and could see a catastrophic 1.5 C (2.7 F) increase between
2030 and 2052, scientists say.
"This is concerning because we know there are so many more problems if
we exceed 1.5 degrees C global warming, including more heat waves and
hot summers, greater sea level rise, and, for many parts of the world,
worse droughts and rainfall extremes," Andrew King, a climate science
academic at the University of Melbourne, said in a statement to CNN.
The stunning statistics were released Monday in a report by the United
Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which warned that we
must make "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects
of society" in order to save our planet.
Scientists with the Nobel Prize-winning IPCC said that in order to have
even a 50-50 chance of staying under the 1.5-degree cap, the world must
become "carbon neutral" by 2050. Any additional carbon dioxide emissions
would require removing the harmful gas from the air...[more]
https://nypost.com/2018/10/08/terrifying-climate-change-warning-12-years-until-were-doomed/
[BBC said]
*Climate report: Scientists politely urge 'act now, idiots'
<https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309>*
By Matt McGrath
It's the final call, say scientists, the most extensive warning yet on
the risks of rising global temperatures.
<https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309>
Their dramatic report on keeping that rise under 1.5 degrees C states
that the world is now completely off track, heading instead towards 3C.
Staying below 1.5C will require "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented
changes in all aspects of society".
It will be hugely expensive, the report says, but the window of
opportunity is not yet closed.
After three years of research and a week of haggling between scientists
and government officials at a meeting in South Korea, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a special
report on the impact of global warming of 1.5C.
Fast fashion is harming the planet, MPs say
Vietnam's children and the fear of climate change
The critical 33-page Summary for Policymakers certainly bears the
hallmarks of difficult negotiations between climate researchers
determined to stick to what their studies have shown and political
representatives more concerned with economies and living standards.
Coral reefs face extinction in a 2-degree world
Despite the inevitable compromises, there are some key messages that
come through loud and and clear.
"The first is that limiting warming to 1.5C brings a lot of benefits
compared with limiting it to 2 degrees. It really reduces the impacts of
climate change in very important ways," said Prof Jim Skea, who is a
co-chair of the IPCC.
"The second is the unprecedented nature of the changes that are required
if we are to limit warming to 1.5C - changes to energy systems, changes
to the way we manage land, changes to the way we move around with
transportation."
*What's the one big takeaway?**
**"Scientists might want to write in capital letters, 'ACT NOW IDIOTS',
*but they need to say that with facts and numbers," said Kaisa Kosonen,
from Greenpeace, who was an observer at the negotiations. "And they have."
The researchers have used these facts and numbers to paint a picture of
the world with a dangerous fever, caused by humans. We used to think if
we could keep warming below 2 degrees this century then the changes we
would experience would be manageable.
Not any more. This new study says that going past 1.5C is dicing with
the planet's liveability. And the 1.5C temperature "guard rail" could be
exceeded in just 12 years in 2030.
We can stay below it but it will require urgent, large-scale changes
from governments and individuals, plus we will have to invest a massive
pile of cash every year, around 2.5% of global GDP, for two decades.
Even then, we will still need machines, trees and plants to capture
carbon from the air that we can then store deep underground. Forever!
Five steps to 1.5
Global emissions of CO2 need to decline by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030.
Renewables are estimated to provide up to 85% of global electricity by 2050.
Coal is expected to reduce to close to zero.
Up to 7 million sq km of land will be needed for energy crops (a bit
less than the size of Australia).
Global net zero emissions by 2050.
*How much will all this cost?**
**It won't come cheap.* The report says that to limit warming to 1.5C,
it will involve "annual average investment needs in the energy system of
around $2.4 trillion" between 2016 and 2035.
Experts believe that this number needs to be put in context.
"There are costs and benefits you have to weigh up," said Dr Stephen
Cornelius, a former UK IPCC negotiator now with WWF, who says that
cutting emissions hard in the short term will cost money, but is cheaper
than paying for carbon dioxide removal later this century.
"The report also talks about the benefits as there is higher economic
growth at 1.5 degrees than there is at 2C, and you don't have the higher
risk of catastrophic impacts at 1.5 that you do at 2."
*What happens if we don't act?**
**The researchers say that if we fail to keep temperatures below 1.5C,
we are in for some significant and dangerous changes to our world.*
You can kiss coral reefs good-bye, as the report says they would be
essentially 100% wiped out at 2 degrees of warming.
Global sea-level will rise around 10 centimetres more if we let warming
go to 2C, That may not sound like much but keeping to 1.5C means that 10
million fewer people would be exposed to the risks of flooding.
There are also significant impacts on ocean temperatures and acidity,
and the ability to grow crops like rice, maize and wheat.
"We are already in the danger zone at one degree of warming," said Kaisa
Kosonen from Greenpeace.
"Both poles are melting at an accelerated rate; ancient trees that have
been there for hundreds of years are suddenly dying; and the summer
we've just experienced - basically, the whole world was on fire."
*Is this plan at all feasible?**
**That all depends on what you mean.* The IPCC scientists are not
allowed to prescribe what should be done; they can only outline what the
options are. But those involved with this study believe it shows
realistic paths to staying under 1.5C.
"It is feasible if we all put our best foot forward, and that's a key
message of this report. No-one can opt out anymore," said Dr Debra
Roberts, who's a co-chair of the IPCC.
"We all have to fundamentally change the way we live our lives; we can't
remain remote from the problem anymore.
"The report is very clear, this can be done, but it will require massive
changes, socially and politically and accompanied by technological
development."...
- - - -
*How long have we got?*
*Not long at all.* But that issue is now in the hands of political
leaders. The report says that hard decisions can no longer be kicked
down the road. If the nations of the world don't act soon, they will
have to rely even more on unproven technologies to take carbon out of
the air - an expensive and uncertain road.
"They really need to start work immediately. The report is clear that if
governments just fulfil the pledges they made in the Paris agreement for
2030, it is not good enough. It will make it very difficult to consider
global warming of 1.5C," said Prof Jim Skea.
"If they read the report and decide to increase their ambitions and act
more immediately then 1.5C stays within reach - that's the nature of the
choice they face."
Campaigners and environmentalists, who have welcomed the report, say
there is simply no time left for debate.
"This is the moment where we need to decide" said Kaisa Kosonen.
"We want to move to clean energy, sustainable lifestyles. We want to
protect our forests and species. This is the moment that we will
remember; this is the year when the turning point happened."
*What can I do?*
*The report says that there must be rapid and significant changes in
four big global systems - energy, land use, cities and industry.*
"This is not about remote science; it is about where we live and work,
and it gives us a cue on how we might be able to contribute to that
massive change," said Dr Debra Roberts.
"You might say you don't have control over land use, but you do have
control over what you eat and that determines land use.
"We can choose the way we move in cities and if we don't have access to
public transport - make sure you are electing politicians who provide
options around public transport."
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45775309
THE CENTER FOR CLIMATE & SECURITY
EXPLORING THE SECURITY RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
*Chronology of U.S. Military Statements and Actions on Climate Change
and Security: 2017-2018
<https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/10/02/chronology-of-u-s-military-statements-and-actions-on-climate-change-and-security-2017-2018/#more-16324>*
https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/10/02/chronology-of-u-s-military-statements-and-actions-on-climate-change-and-security-2017-2018/#more-16324
[Who's on first.]
*The Trump administration has entered Stage 5 climate denial
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/08/the-trump-administration-has-entered-stage-5-climate-denial>*
If we're already doomed to disastrous climate change, then there's no
reason to cut carbon pollution, argues the Trump administration
Dana Nuccitelli
Mon 8 Oct 2018
Several years ago, I wrote about the five stages of climate denial:
Stage 1: Deny the Problem Exists
Stage 2: Deny We're the Cause
Stage 3: Deny It's a Problem
Stage 4: Deny We can Solve It
Stage 5: It's too Late
- - -
*The climate tragedy of the commons*
The tragedy of the commons is a situation in which individual actors
using a shared-resource system act in their own seeming self-interest
and deplete the resource as a result. For example, consider a small
fishery with a dozen fisherman each catching as many fish as he can.
Soon the resource becomes overfished and every fisherman suffers the
consequences. Only if they all agree to limit their catches to
sustainable levels can the fishery remain a long-term stable resource
for all of the fishermen.
We're in the same situation with climate change. Every country can act
in its own short-term self-interest and continue burning lots of
seemingly cheap fossil fuels; the long-term result in that scenario
would be a catastrophic destabilization of the global climate on which
we all rely. Or every country can agree to take steps like increasing
vehicle fuel efficiency standards that cumulatively will slow global
warming and avoid the worst climate change impacts.
Of course, being a short-sighted nationalist, Donald Trump is the only
world leader to reject the Paris climate agreement. His administration
is similarly making short-sighted arguments that coincidentally serve
the best interests of the fossil fuel industry, while in this case
producing the equivalent carbon emissions of adding 9 million more cars
on the road.
At least the Trump administration doesn't deny basic climate science in
this report, but worse yet, they've taken the nihilistic viewpoint that
we're screwed and nothing we do matters. Like the other stages, this is
simply another form of climate denial meant to protect fossil fuel
industry profits at everyone else's peril.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/08/the-trump-administration-has-entered-stage-5-climate-denial
[Expensive Book ]
*Psychology and Climate Change
<https://www.elsevier.com/books/psychology-and-climate-change/clayton/978-0-12-813130-5>*
Human Perceptions, Impacts, and Responses
Editors: Susan Clayton, Christie Manning
eBook ISBN: 9780128131312
Paperback ISBN: 9780128131305
Imprint: Academic Press
Published Date: 7th June 2018
Description
Psychology and Climate Change: Human Perceptions, Impacts, and Responses
organizes and summarizes recent psychological research that relates to
the issue of climate change. The book covers topics such as how people
perceive and respond to climate change, how people understand and
communicate about the issue, how it impacts individuals and communities,
particularly vulnerable communities, and how individuals and communities
can best prepare for and mitigate negative climate change impacts. It
addresses the topic at multiple scales, from individuals to close social
networks and communities. Further, it considers the role of social
diversity in shaping vulnerability and reactions to climate change.
Psychology and Climate Change describes the implications of
psychological processes such as perceptions and motivations (e.g., risk
perception, motivated cognition, denial), emotional responses, group
identities, mental health and well-being, sense of place, and behavior
(mitigation and adaptation). The book strives to engage diverse
stakeholders, from multiple disciplines in addition to psychology, and
at every level of decision making - individual, community, national, and
international, to understand the ways in which human capabilities and
tendencies can and should shape policy and action to address the urgent
and very real issue of climate change.
Key Features
Examines the role of knowledge, norms, experience, and social
context in climate change awareness and action
Considers the role of identity threat, identity-based motivation,
and belonging
Presents a conceptual framework for classifying individual and
household behavior
Develops a model to explain environmentally sustainable behavior
Draws on what we know about participation in collective action
Describes ways to improve the effectiveness of climate change
communication efforts
Discusses the difference between acute climate change events and
slowly-emerging changes on our mental health
Addresses psychological stress and injury related to global climate
change from an intersectional justice perspective
Promotes individual and community resilience
Readership
Researchers and students who study environmental psychology, social
psychology, behavior change, and environmental studies. A secondary
market for those who make policy regarding climate change...
https://www.elsevier.com/books/psychology-and-climate-change/clayton/978-0-12-813130-5
*This Day in Climate History - October 9, 2013
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/d-r-tucker/david-koch-wgbh_b_4073430.html>
- from D.R. Tucker*
October 9, 2013: Forecast the Facts holds a "Rally for a Koch-Free WGBH"
in Brighton, Massachusetts, urging the PBS affiliate to remove
billionaire climate-change denier David H. Koch from its board of trustees.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/d-r-tucker/david-koch-wgbh_b_4073430.html
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