[TheClimate.Vote] October 19, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Oct 19 09:56:13 EDT 2018
/October 19, 2018/
[Says Yale Climate Communications]
*Even Americans highly concerned about climate change dramatically
underestimate the scientific consensus
<http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/even-americans-highly-concerned-about-climate-change-dramatically-underestimate-the-scientific-consensus/>*
By Abel Gustafson and Matthew Goldberg
- -
In sum, even many people who understand climate change as the serious
threat that it is currently misperceive the extent of the scientific
consensus by a large margin. However, this presents an opportunity for
climate change communicators – because existing pro-climate beliefs and
attitudes can likely be strengthened and solidified with simple messages
about the scientific consensus.
http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/even-americans-highly-concerned-about-climate-change-dramatically-underestimate-the-scientific-consensus/
[best video summary of the IPCC report from PBS - 9 minutes]
*World needs to make near-revolutionary change to avoid imminent climate
disaster. Is there hope? <https://youtu.be/uUeOApeSuHU>*
PBS NewsHour
Published on Oct 8, 2018
Unless we immediately reduce the burning of coal and oil and gas that
drive up global temperatures, a new UN report warns the world will
suffer tremendous consequences as early as 2040. William Brangham talks
with Rafe Pomerance of the Woods Hole Research Center and Gavin Schmidt
from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
https://youtu.be/uUeOApeSuHU
[POTUS testing SCOTUS Blacked Robe Army with new filing]
*Trump Administration Again Asks Supreme Court to Stop Kids Climate Case
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/10/18/supreme-court-climate-case-trump-appeal/>*
By Dana Drugmand
The federal government is asking the Supreme Court once again to
intervene and halt proceedings in the youth climate change lawsuit
Juliana v. United States. The landmark case is set to go to trial at the
federal district court in Eugene, Ore., in less than two weeks.
In its latest effort to evade trial, the Department of Justice on
Thursday filed both a petition for a writ of mandamus and an application
for a stay in the Supreme Court. The stay asks the Court to put the
brakes on the proceedings--effectively stopping the upcoming
trial--while the court reviews the petition for mandamus. That petition
asks the court to overrule the U.S. District Court and the Ninth Circuit
Court of Appeals, which have paved the way for the case to go to trial
on Oct. 29.
The government said the continued appeals--writs of mandamus are rarely
used and even more rarely granted because they usurp the usual judicial
process--are appropriate because the government seeks to avoid what it
calls an "unjustified trial that would 'threaten the separation of powers.'"
The case has so far survived multiple attempts by the government to
dismiss it and to delay and stop proceedings. The government recently
filed a motion with the District Court and a petition with the Ninth
Circuit seeking a stay of the trial. The federal government indicated in
its filings its intention to seek Supreme Court review, making this the
second time it has tried to stop the case at all three levels of the
federal court system.
The Supreme Court has already denied a request for a stay. On July 30,
the Court rejected the government's stay application, allowing the case
to proceed toward trial. The court order called the government's request
for relief "premature," though it also noted that plaintiffs' claims
were "striking" in their breadth and presented grounds for differences
of opinion. The denial was ordered without prejudice, meaning that
defendants could try again.
With the Ninth Circuit Court twice rejecting the government's petitions
for mandamus and with District Court Judge Ann Aiken repeatedly denying
attempts to stop or delay proceedings--including in a sweeping ruling on
Monday--the government is turning once more to the Supreme Court...
more at-
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/10/18/supreme-court-climate-case-trump-appeal/
[booming risks more booms]
*Oil-by-Rail Rises Once Again as Safety Rules Disappear
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/10/17/safety-rules-rollback-second-oil-train-boom-rail-industry>*
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/10/17/safety-rules-rollback-second-oil-train-boom-rail-industry
[notice the breakfast table]
*Why General Mills Is Turning to 'Throwback' Farming to Fight Climate
Change <http://fortune.com/2018/10/17/general-mills-fight-climate-change/>*
To fight climate change, General Mills is looking to its past.
The 152-year-old food company is turning to "a throwback of classic, old
farming practices" combined with new methods to contribute to a more
sustainable future for the food industry, according to Carla Vernón,
president of its natural and organic operating unit. That means
expanding its organic acreage and implementing regenerative farming
practices with perennial grains, cover crops, and pollinator habitats.
"If we mean to stay in the food business at General Mills, then this
problem that we're facing, that we have been a participant in we realize
now, we have to make positive contributions," Vernón said.
- - - -
While General Mills--which owns natural food brands Annie's and
Cascadian Farm--is relying on parts of its history in concert with new
methods, other companies are more bullish on technological innovation as
the primary solution.
"Farming in the old days was a disaster," Condon said. "No farmer will
go back to the way things used to be."
video spiel:
http://fortune.com/2018/10/17/general-mills-fight-climate-change/
http://fortune.com/2018/10/17/general-mills-fight-climate-change/
- - -
[we probably know this anyway]
*The ideal diet to combat climate change
<https://www.localnews8.com/health/the-ideal-diet-to-combat-climate-change/809238787>*
(CNN) Plant-based diets better for planet, study says
- - -
The study, published last week in the journal Nature, found that as a
result of population growth and the continued consumption of Western
diets high in red meats and processed foods, the environmental pressures
of the food system could increase by up to 90% by 2050, "exceeding key
planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity
beyond which Earth's vital ecosystems could become unstable," according
to study author Marco Springmann of the Oxford Martin Programme on the
Future of Food at the University of Oxford.
"It could lead to dangerous levels of climate change with higher
occurrences of extreme weather events, affect the regulatory function of
forest ecosystems and biodiversity ... and pollute water bodies such
that it would lead to more oxygen-depleted dead zones in oceans,"
Springmann said....
- - -
Flexitarian: The healthy compromise for you and the planet
Experts agree that if you are not ready to give up meat entirely, a
flexitarian diet, which is predominantly plant-based, can help. This
diet includes plenty of fruits, vegetables and plant-based protein
sources including legumes, soybeans and nuts, along with modest amounts
of poultry, fish, milk and eggs, and small amounts of red meat...
https://www.localnews8.com/health/the-ideal-diet-to-combat-climate-change/809238787
[failure to report]
*'Vast Blind Spot': IPCC Accused of Ignoring 'Decades Long' Fossil Fuel
Misinformation Campaign on Climate
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/10/12/ipcc-accused-ignoring-research-fossil-fuel-funded-misinformation-campaign>*
By Graham Readfearn - October 12, 2018
- - -
The United Nations (UN) climate science panel is being accused of
ignoring research into fossil fuel-funded misinformation campaigns that
have been key to holding back action on global warming.
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) -- an assessment of more than 6,000 research papers -- found
global warming caused largely by fossil fuel burning would have severe
impacts even if limited to 1.5C (2.7F).
Described by the IPCC as "one of the most important climate change
reports ever published," the report is designed to inform policy makers
and the public around the world.
But several researchers are angry the report did not take account of
academic research into the "decades-long misinformation campaign" funded
and promoted by fossil fuel interests and so-called "free market"
conservative think tanks that has been a major brake on progress.
Several researchers say the lack of consideration of academic research
into misinformation campaigns was a vital but missed opportunity to
educate the public and policy makers. The groups that have colluded with
the fossil fuel industry have been credited with pushing President
Donald Trump to pledge to pull the U.S. from the UN's Paris Agreement...
- - -
Professor Matthew Hornsey of the University of Queensland in Australia
has also researched climate science denial and said he did not want to
be critical of IPCC authors who were "doing a great job in difficult
circumstances."
But he said the report was "relatively silent on the role of political
elites in supporting organized campaigns of misinformation about climate
change."
He said: "This is something that most neutral observers would agree is a
big factor in stopping progress on climate change, particularly in
Australia and the U.S."
"But I can also understand why the authors might want to steer clear of
making any explosive statements around this. One of the great triumphs
of the skeptic movement is that they've made it feel 'political' or
'biased' to talk frankly about political interference in Australia and
the U.S."
DeSmog contacted the two coordinating lead authors of chapter four of
the IPCC report, but had not received a response at time of publishing.
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/10/12/ipcc-accused-ignoring-research-fossil-fuel-funded-misinformation-campaign
- - - - - -
[more analysis]
*IPCC's climate report: the future's not looking good
<https://physicsworld.com/a/ipccs-climate-report-the-futures-not-looking-good/>*
17 Oct 2018 Dave Elliott
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SR15 special report
looks at how to keep global temperature rise to 1.5C. Even if that was
possible, impacts would be severe, but they'd be much worse at 2C.
The IPCC report puts it positively, highlighting a number of climate
change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5C
compared to 2 C, or more. For instance, by 2100 global sea level rise
would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5 C compared with 2 C. The
likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once
per century with global warming of 1.5C, compared with at least once per
decade with 2 C. Coral reefs would decline by 70-90% with global warming
of 1.5C, whereas virtually all (> 99%) would be lost with 2 C. Even so,
it's all a little sobering, as was Carbon Brief's attempt to summarize
likely impacts.
Can these impacts be avoided? The UN's Paris Agreement aimed to help us
stay "well below" 2C, but the chance of the world doing that is now
"almost zero", PWC consultancy has said, given that the gap between the
current decarbonization rate and that needed to stay under 2 C was
widening. Among the G20 countries, China led with a decarbonization rate
of 5.2%, with Mexico, Argentina, the UK and Brazil behind it. But, PWC
said, "not one of the G20 countries achieved the 6.4% rate required to
limit warming to 2C this year".
Balancing act
So what happens next? SR15 presents some grim realities. It still
insists that it can be done, but "limiting global warming to 1.5 C would
require 'rapid and far-reaching' transitions in land, energy, industry,
buildings, transport, and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of
carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45% from 2010 levels by
2030, reaching 'net zero' around 2050. This means that any remaining
emissions would need to be balanced by removing CO2 from the air."
So SR15 backs negative carbon/carbon dioxide removal (CDR) as a last
ditch corrective: "Allowing the global temperature to temporarily exceed
or 'overshoot' 1.5C would mean a greater reliance on techniques that
remove CO2 from the air to return global temperature to below 1.5C by
2100. The effectiveness of such techniques are unproven at large scale
and some may carry significant risks for sustainable development."
Nevertheless, the IPCC says "in pathways limiting global warming to 1.5C
with limited or no overshoot, BECCS deployment is projected to range
from 0–1, 0–8, and 0–16 GtCO2/yr in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively,
while agriculture, forestry and land-use (AFOLU)-related CDR measures
are projected to remove 0–5, 1–11, and 1–5 GtCO2/yr in these years," but
it adds "some pathways avoid BECCS deployment completely through
demand-side measures and greater reliance on AFOLU-related CDR
measures". In some scenarios there is also some fossil fossil CCS,
maybe as a sop to coal-intense countries and the fossil fuel lobby.
Renewed energy
However, the main way ahead is evidently seen as via renewables. In the
IPCC's best scenario, with low energy demand and low or no carbon
overshoot, renewables supply 60% of global electricity by 2030, moving
up to 81% by 2050. Though in that scenario the IPCC sees nuclear power
expanding by 59% (from its 2010 level) by 2020 and by 150% by 2050. Or
much more in some higher demand scenarios. Are either of these
expansions possible? Nuclear is at 10.5% at present globally, and mostly
stalled. SR15 notes that, while in some scenarios nuclear expands, in
others (and in some countries) it declines, or no longer plays a role.
By contrast, renewables are at 26.5% and booming in most places, with
costs falling. They seem a better bet -- IPCC says, with "high
confidence", that they should be able to supply between 70–85% of global
electricity in 2050.
While that is good news, some issues emerged in the run-up to the IPCC
report that may need to be considered. For example, though hydro is
expanding, not everyone backs large hydro, given its large local
environmental and social impacts, and it is also becoming clear that
climate change is having a significant impact on water supply for hydro
projects.
Blowing in the wind
There are also some disputes about wind power impacts. A new Harvard
study says the mass deployment of wind turbines would alter local
thermal balances: "warming arises, in part, from turbines redistributing
heat by mixing the boundary layer". The researchers add that "the
warming effect is small compared with projections of 21st century
warming, approximately equivalent to the reduced warming achieved by
decarbonizing global electricity generation, and large compared with the
reduced warming achieved by decarbonizing US electricity with wind".
They estimate that "generating today's US electricity demand (0.5 TWe)
with wind power would warm continental US surface temperatures by
0.24C". So "for the same generation rate, the climatic impacts from
solar photovoltaic systems are about ten times smaller than wind
systems. Wind's overall environmental impacts are surely less than
fossil energy. Yet, as the energy system is decarbonized, decisions
between wind and solar should be informed by estimates of their climate
impacts". Sounds like an anti-wind/pro-solar line, but that perspective
conflicts with the result from Stanford University work suggesting that,
by reducing water vapour in the air, wind turbines would cut warming.
And a Forbes correspondent also came to the defence of wind -- there
were no net temperature changes, just a transfer of heat.
Even so, with issues like that around, it's understandable that some see
carbon negative options as important. However, as I have noted in
earlier posts, some say BECCS, Biomass with CCS, will undermine carbon
sinks and biodiversity and some think that protecting forests would be a
better bet. Indeed, the IPCC warns that "most current and potential CDR
measures could have significant impacts on land, energy, water, or
nutrients if deployed at large scale". It's not easy being green.
Certainly the task ahead is daunting. The IPCC says: "Climate change
impacts and responses are closely linked to sustainable development
which balances social well-being, economic prosperity and environmental
protection. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs),
adopted in 2015, provide an established framework for assessing the
links between global warming of 1.5C or 2C and development goals that
include poverty eradication, reducing inequalities, and climate action".
And it claims that "the avoided climate change impacts on sustainable
development, eradication of poverty and reducing inequalities would be
greater if global warming were limited to 1.5C rather than 2C, if
mitigation and adaptation synergies are maximized while trade-offs are
minimized". That seems obvious enough, but can it be done? Not least
given the fact that not everyone is convinced that the IPCC report says
much that is new and some remain convinced that the whole thing is a scam.
https://physicsworld.com/a/ipccs-climate-report-the-futures-not-looking-good/
[how much?]
*Firefighting bill hits $110 million for 'historically bad' Utah fire
season
<https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900037341/firefighting-bill-hits-dollar110-million-for-historically-bad-utah-fire-season.html>*
By Jed Boal, KSL TV
FRUITLAND, Duchesne County -- Just how bad was the wildfire season this
summer in Utah?
The acreage burned, homes lost and firefighting costs all registered at
historic levels this wildfire season.
- - - - -
"By almost any measurement, it's historic -- and it's historically bad,"
Cottam said.
Utah will pay $35 million for fire suppression costs this year -- the
biggest wildfire bill ever in the state. The federal government is
picking up $75 million in fire suppression costs for a total of $110
million in firefighting costs in the state this year.
Over the past seven years, Utah averaged 135,000 acres burned each
wildfire season, Cottam said. This year nearly 500,000 acres burned --
three times the average -- to become one of the most devastating
wildfire seasons for acreage ever in Utah...
https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900037341/firefighting-bill-hits-dollar110-million-for-historically-bad-utah-fire-season.html
- - - -
*Red Flag Warning: San Diego agencies prepare for fire conditions
<http://www.cbs8.com/story/39284100/red-flag-warning-san-diego-agencies-prepare-for-fire-conditions>*
By Brandon Lewis, Reporter
http://www.cbs8.com/story/39284100/red-flag-warning-san-diego-agencies-prepare-for-fire-conditions
- - - - - -
[new burn reveals old]
*Wildfire destruction reveals ancient Indigenous sites in BC
<https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/wildfire-destruction-reveals-ancient-indigenous-sites-in-bc/115092>*
Monday, October 15, 2018, 3:25 PM - One of the most notorious,
destructive wildfires of 2017 has led to a unique opportunity for
archeological research.
The Elephant Hill Wildfire burned up 192,000 hectares of B.C.'s Interior
which one archeologist says has made it easier to comb the forest floor
for previously hidden Indigenous archeological sites.
"It provided an opportunity that couldn't be overlooked," said Joanne
Hammond, an independent archeologist. "We're finding lots and lots of
sites all over the landscape."
Hammond is working for the Skeetchestn Indian Band, a First Nation whose
traditional territory is located west of Kamloops. Parts of that
territory near Cache Creek burned in the massive fire and Hammond is
leading one of several teams combing the blackened landscape.
Since the survey began in the spring, Hammond's Skeetchestn team alone
has found around 100 archeological sites. Normally they might find only
20 to 25 sites in a full year.
The search has yielded artifacts conclusively dated to 6,500 to 7,000
years ago and some might be as old as 10,000 years old which Hammond
says are a valuable part of Skeetchestn's cultural heritage...
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/wildfire-destruction-reveals-ancient-indigenous-sites-in-bc/115092
- - - - -
[Coos Bay area]
*Klondike Fire 'exploded' suddenly; increased by 5,544 acres
<https://theworldlink.com/bandon/news/klondike-fire-exploded-suddenly-increased-by-acres/article_cd404815-0e4a-5ba9-811e-84c653186f4b.html>*
https://theworldlink.com/bandon/news/klondike-fire-exploded-suddenly-increased-by-acres/article_cd404815-0e4a-5ba9-811e-84c653186f4b.html
[Europe]
*Adapting to Europe's climate changes: drought management strategies
<https://www.scitecheuropa.eu/drought-management-strategies-europes-climate-changes/90036/>*
In a new research paper, scientists have assessed the effects of the
heat and drought from Europe's climate changes on crops. There will be a
need for heat and drought management strategies in the future.
Heat and drought as a result of Europe's climate changes are expected to
cause problems for crops such as maize and wheat. The new research
identifies that adapting to the climatic changes will be necessary for
food production. It is clear that heat and drought management strategies
will be needed to achieve this.
The paper, titled "Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and
winter wheat in Europe", has been published in Nature Communications (2018).
https://www.scitecheuropa.eu/drought-management-strategies-europes-climate-changes/90036/
[Boston Globe]
*Walsh calls for major investment to guard city against flooding
<https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2018/10/17/walsh-calls-for-major-investment-guard-city-against-flooding/efqLesvRlBodc9K3aRsgTL/story.html>*
By Tim Logan and Jon Chesto - OCTOBER 17, 2018
In a bid to prepare Boston for the threat of rising sea levels, Mayor
Martin J. Walsh is betting big on waterfront parks as a defense against
damaging floods.
Walsh on Wednesday rolled out a citywide plan that centers around
creating new parks -- and making improvements to existing ones -- to
help plug low-lying spots along Boston's 47 miles of coastline and to
act as a buffer for residential neighborhoods.
The ambitious proposal includes parks from Belle Isle Marsh in East
Boston to Sargent's Wharf downtown to Tenean Beach in Dorchester. It
would add 67 acres of public open space in all, and it calls for
building sea walls along privately owned sections of the Harborwalk, as
well as raising low-lying streets such as Morrissey Boulevard in
Dorchester and Main Street in Charlestown. In addition to offering
protection from storms, Walsh said, the plan would make more of the
waterfront accessible to the public.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2018/10/17/walsh-calls-for-major-investment-guard-city-against-flooding/efqLesvRlBodc9K3aRsgTL/story.html
[Atomic Scientists meets -SNL]
*Live from New York, it's the end of the world!
<https://thebulletin.org/2018/10/live-from-new-york-its-the-end-of-the-world/>*
By Thomas Gaulkin, October 17, 2018
"Saturday Night Live" cast members Colin Jost and Michael Che got some
notice for taking up the recent IPCC report on climate change during
their regular "Weekend Update" segment this week.
Excerpts from the YouTube clip:
*Colin Jost:* "We don't really worry about climate change because it's
too overwhelming, and we're already in too deep. It's like if you owe
your bookie $1,000, you're like, 'oh yeah, I gotta pay this dude back.'
But if you owe your bookie $1 million, you're like, 'I guess I'm just
gonna die.'"
*Michael Che: *"I keep asking myself why don't I care about this? Don't
get me wrong, I 100 percent believe in climate change, yet I'm willing
to do absolutely nothing about it… I think it's because they keep
telling us we're gonna lose everything, and nobody cares about
everything, people only care about some things. Like, if Fox News
reported that in 2030 climate change was going to take away all the
Confederate statues, there'd be recycling bins outside every Cracker
Barrel and Dick's Sporting Goods. … You want white women to care about
the environment? Tell them if they don't do something about climate
change, we're going lose all the yarn. White women love yarn. No more
hats, no more scarves, no more of those ridiculous socks you knit for
your dog."
Video https://youtu.be/07oe1m67eik
The SNL bit got plenty of laughs. But what if we took this seriously for
a minute? How realistic are Che's examples? Let's consider a couple:
With conditions getting hotter and drier, long-term damage from climate
change around the southeastern United States will exacerbate the already
undeniable impacts of hurricanes and flooding. Here's a quick GIF
cycling between an ABC map of confederate monuments and a New York Times
map of predicted climate damage through the year 2100:
Wool, cotton, and other natural textile fibers are also all vulnerable
to the effects of climate change. Cotton needs a lot of water to grow,
which makes drought a real threat. Wool requires keeping sheep happy on
pastures that may not be sustainable with rising temperatures. (Some
clothing companies are beginning to use "climate beneficial" wool.)
So maybe SNL's Che is on to something. Global warming will affect lots
of other comforts Americans take for granted too. Coffee is already
known to be at risk from drought, diseases and the death of insect
pollinators. And a study published this week in Nature Plants forecasts
barley shortages will likely leave US beer lovers drinking four billion
fewer pints over the next 100 years if current emissions trends continue.
That's definitely worth thinking about over a cold one.
https://thebulletin.org/2018/10/live-from-new-york-its-the-end-of-the-world/
[Late Nite TV scolding]
*Stephen Colbert Pillories Trump for Rejecting Climate Change Science
<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/18/arts/television/stephen-colbert-trump-climate-change.html>*
Video Trump Brags About His 'Natural Instinct For Science'
<https://youtu.be/dQeylLZNblE>
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/18/arts/television/stephen-colbert-trump-climate-change.html
https://youtu.be/dQeylLZNblE
*This Day in Climate History - October 19, 2016
<https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/10/18/missing-from-debates-climate-change/koOssL92tHHCofwXeCcMsN/story.html>
- from D.R. Tucker*
October 19, 2016:
Boston Globe columnist Derrick Z. Jackson observes:
"Unless Wednesday’s presidential debate moderator Chris Wallace
changes his mind, the three presidential debates will add up to
four-and-a-half hours without one question from the moderators about
climate change. That would be an utter embarrassment to the American
political process, a fitting final demonstration of how gutter
politics have ignored an issue that affects every person in the
United States, and the world."
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/10/18/missing-from-debates-climate-change/koOssL92tHHCofwXeCcMsN/story.html
- - -
At the third 2016 presidential debate, Hillary Clinton notes the
importance of clean energy in combating climate change.
https://twitter.com/yalee360/status/788917735006801920
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