[TheClimate.Vote] September 20, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/September 20, 2018/

[aftermath video]
*Dramatic Drone Video Shows NC Town Completely Under Water 
<https://weather.com/storms/severe/video/dramatic-drone-video-shows-nc-town-completely-under-water>*
Drone video shows the town of Chinquapin, North Carolina completely 
under water in the aftermath of Florence.
https://weather.com/storms/severe/video/dramatic-drone-video-shows-nc-town-completely-under-water
- - - -
[17 mins interviews]
*Rev. Barber: North Carolina Has Two Storms--Florence & the Policies 
That Keep People in Poverty <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1zqX3NNfVg>*
Democracy Now! - Published on Sep 19, 2018
https://democracynow.org - As President Trump visits North Carolina, 
where thousands are evacuating after Hurricane Florence caused record 
flooding, we go to Raleigh to speak with Rev. Dr. William Barber, 
co-chair of the Poor People's Campaign. Areas devastated by the storm 
include some of the poorest areas on the Eastern Seaboard. Barber's 
recent CNN piece is headlined "In hurricane wind and waves, the poor 
suffer most."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1zqX3NNfVg


[international carbon capitalists]
*Business lobby prepares pushback against EU climate goals update 
<https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/business-lobby-prepares-pushback-against-eu-climate-goals-update>*
By Frederic Simon | EURACTIV.com
A leaked internal memo, obtained by EURACTIV, gives a rare glimpse into 
the communication strategy of Europe's main business lobby group ahead 
of the COP24 conference later this year, showing how it plans to 
"oppose" any increase in the EU's climate ambition for 2030.
The memo from BusinessEurope, dated 13 September, shows how Europe's 
biggest employer association intends to "challenge" EU plans to aim 
higher in the fight against climate change.
The document, which will be discussed at an internal meeting on 
Wednesday, says the main line to take about the EU's climate policy 
should be "rather positive, as long as it remains a political statement 
with no implications" on the EU's existing commitments under the Paris 
Agreement.
Miguel Arias Canete, the EU climate action commissioner, has suggested 
updating the EU's greenhouse gas reduction target for 2030, arguing that 
the EU's level of ambition had "de facto" been raised after an agreement 
was struck on renewables and energy efficiency targets earlier in June.
Currently, the EU envisages cutting its emissions by "at least 40%" by 
2030 based on 1990 levels. That target would effectively be raised to 
45% following the deal on renewables and energy efficiency, Canete said.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/business-lobby-prepares-pushback-against-eu-climate-goals-update


[heating changes geology]
*Tropics Expanding with Climate Change 
<https://www.laboratoryequipment.com/news/2018/09/tropics-expanding-climate-change>*
9/18/2018
by Seth Augenstein - Senior Science Writer
The tropics are expanding outward from the Equator due to the various 
factors causing climate change, according to a new study.
The thermal patterns since the late 1970s have gradually pushed the arid 
and semi-arid regions of the tropics by about 17 miles per decade, 
according to the paper in the journal Nature Climate Change.
"Our synthesis shows strong evidence that the tropics have widened by 
about 0.5 degrees per decade since the beginning of the satellite era 
(1979)," write the authors. "Since no one has a crystal ball to tell 
when the (Pacific decadal oscillation) will switch phases (as decadal 
prediction remains a major challenge to the climate community), it is 
impossible to predict whether or not the Earth's tropical belt is going 
to continue bulging in the coming decade."
The estimations have nothing to do with the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic 
of Capricorn, at 23 degree 27 minutes north and south, respectively. 
Instead, the estimations were based on observations of the climate 
patterns established by the Hadley cells, cycles that circulate heat and 
thermal energy and weather patterns from the Equator outward to the 
subtropics, and back again, like a natural pump.
The dynamics have been reaching ever outward toward the temperate zones 
since the advent of satellite observations, the researchers conclude.
The team identifies various factors including greenhouse gas emission, 
ozone depletion at the South Pole, volcanic aerosols, pollution and 
natural variation, which may play a part in the changes. The balance 
between naturally-driven and human-caused changes have yet to be better 
understood...
https://www.laboratoryequipment.com/news/2018/09/tropics-expanding-climate-change
- - - -
[source material]
*Re-examining tropical expansion 
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0246-2>*
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0246-2
- - - - -
[Reuters: alternating drought and flood]
*'Catastrophic' floods rising on Amazon River, say scientists 
<https://uk.reuters.com/article/brazil-environment-floods/catastrophic-floods-rising-on-amazon-river-say-scientists-idUKL8N1W45BD>*
Sophie Hares, Thomson Reuters Foundation
TEPIC, Mexico, Sept 19 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Severe flooding on 
the Amazon has increased amid changing weather patterns, and is harming 
the health and incomes of people living along the world's biggest river, 
scientists said.
Analysing more than 100 years of records measuring Amazon River levels 
in the port of Manaus in Brazil, they found extreme floods that occurred 
roughly once every 20 years in the first part of last century are now 
happening about every four years...
- - - -
In a paper published on Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, 
researchers from institutions including Britain's University of Leeds 
said severe flooding had affected the Amazon basin nearly every year 
from 2009 to 2015.
They linked the increase in flooding to a combination of warmer 
temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and cooler temperatures over the 
Pacific.
Known as the Walker circulation, this effect influences tropical weather 
patterns, and can partly be attributed to shifts in wind belts caused by 
global warming, the study said.
With temperatures in the Atlantic expected to rise more than in the 
Pacific, flood risks on the Amazon River will persist, the scientists 
predicted.
"We think that it's going to continue for at least a decade," said 
Barichivich, formerly a University of Leeds research fellow.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/brazil-environment-floods/catastrophic-floods-rising-on-amazon-river-say-scientists-idUKL8N1W45BD


[affects weather]
*Natural climate oscillations in north Atlantic linked to Greenland ice 
sheet melt <https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/09/180918110838.htm>*
Date: September 18, 2018
Source: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Summary:

    Scientists have known for years that warming global climate is
    melting the Greenland Ice Sheet, the second largest ice sheet in the
    world. A new study, however, shows that the rate of melting might be
    temporarily increased or decreased by two existing climate patterns:
    the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal
    Oscillation (AMO)...

If global climate change continues at its current rate, the Greenland 
ice sheet may eventually melt entirely -- but whether it meets this fate 
sooner rather than later could be determined by these two oscillations, 
says Caroline Ummenhofer, a climate scientist at WHOI and co-author on 
the study. Depending on how the AMO and NAO interact, excess melting 
could happen two decades earlier than expected, or two decades later 
this century.

"We know the Greenland ice sheet is melting in part because of warming 
climate, but that's not a linear process," Ummenhofer said. "There are 
periods where it will accelerate, and periods where it won't."

Scientists like Ummenhofer see a pressing need to understand out how 
natural variability can play a role in speeding up or slowing down the 
melting process. "The consequences go beyond just the Greenland Ice 
Sheet -- predicting climate on the scale of the next few decades will 
also be useful for resource management, city planners and other people 
who will need to adapt to those changes," she added...
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/09/180918110838.htm
- - - - -

[great graphics]
*THE HUNT FOR BETTER CLIMATE SCIENCE 
<https://graphics.reuters.com/CLIMATECHANGE-GREENLAND/010080DH0S2/>*
NASA scientists are mapping the loss of ice in Greenland, part of a 
cutting-edge effort to understand how warming oceans melt ice sheets -- 
a key factor in improving uncertain forecasts for sea-level rise.
Photography and videography by Lucas Jackson
Story by Alister Doyle, Elizabeth Culliford and Lucas Jackson
Graphics and design by Christine Chan and Travis Hartman
PUBLISHED SEPT. 19, 2018
Flying over eastern Greenland, the NASA scientists stared down from a 
Gulfstream jet as it followed the precise course they had flown in 
previous years -- using radar to map the loss of ice.

"In the tube," flight engineer David Elliott said as the team locked 
into their route over the ice sheet covering 80 percent of the world's 
largest island. Out the window, massive chunks of broken ice looked like 
salt flakes on the water.

The March mission was part of NASA's Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) 
project, a five-year, $30 million effort aimed at improving sea level 
rise projections by understanding how warming oceans are melting ice 
sheets from below - the most ambitious research on the subject to date...
- - - -
"It's not just an ice cube and a hair dryer," he said, offering an 
oft-used metaphor for how warmer air melts glaciers.

"We're really just beginning to grapple with how these ice sheets are 
going to behave in a warming world."

The OMG project aims to clarify how Greenland itself contributes to 
rising seas, but also to apply that knowledge to the study of the much 
larger region of Antarctica, which has far more ice and could ultimately 
play a much bigger role in sea-level rise. And while most of Greenland's 
ice is on land above sea level, large parts of the Western Antarctic ice 
sheet are below sea level, making them more vulnerable to warming oceans.
more at: https://graphics.reuters.com/CLIMATECHANGE-GREENLAND/010080DH0S2/
- - - - -
[talk over satellite images]
*The Arctic at the end of the melt season 
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlAPmtUr8sc&feature=share>*
Robin Westenra · YouTube https://youtu.be/QlAPmtUr8sc
Brief observations at the end of the official melt season. I talk about 
what is happening north of Alaska (it appears to be closing up there) 
nut also the strange conditions (complete blue sea) above Alaska and 
above the McKenzie River delta (sorry Canadians - my geography is a bit 
fuzzy)
I think that conditions OTHER than the change of the season and the 
refreeze are at play here and the melt FROM BELOW and the consequences 
of rapid melt of the permafrost are at play now.
All we can do is observe and reflect on what we see. I suspect there 
will be changes we will be unable to see because of the long, dark winter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlAPmtUr8sc&feature=share


[gas up, and keep the swimming pool filled]
*Fire weather watch issued for North Bay: 'Any fires that develop will 
spread rapidly' 
<https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/Fire-weather-watch-North-Bay-Napa-County-13241079.php>*
By Amy Graff, SFGATE - September 19, 2018
Dry, hot, windy weather is in the forecast for inland Northern 
California Wednesday and Thursday, prompting the National Weather 
Service to issue a familiar warning: "Any fires that develop will spread 
rapidly."
A fire weather watch is in effect for the North Bay Wednesday evening 
through Thursday afternoon and the NWS advises against all outdoor burning.
As a high pressure system moves into Northern California, temperatures 
will increase into the high 80s and low 90s in inland areas...
https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/Fire-weather-watch-North-Bay-Napa-County-13241079.php


[Yale Climate Connections]
*VIDEO <https://youtu.be/MYFlRxJ5Sh0>* https://youtu.be/MYFlRxJ5Sh0
*Scientists weigh public's emotional responses to climate risks 
<https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/09/scientists-on-emotional-responses-to-climate-risks/>*
Funneling public's climate change emotions and anxieties into 
'solutions' can help 'build emotional resiliency' to risks in a warming 
world.
Anger. Fear. Frustration. Grief. Hopelessness and helplessness. And shame.
They're just some of the wide range of emotions people often feel quite 
normally and naturally, often subconsciously, when encountering 
scientists' explanations of risks posed by a warming climate.

But keep in mind: Climate scientists are people too, and they too can 
experience strong emotional feelings in dealing day-in and day-out with 
what they see lying ahead for a warming planet...
- - - -
Fearful "of the future, the consequences, and the chance that we just 
can't get this thing right," Myhre points to common reactions she sees 
in addressing climate change with diverse audiences. She asks 
rhetorically how she personally can deal with the "shame" she feels in 
considering the warmer world her son may be living in over the next 
several decades. And the shame she feels over her own air travel or her 
inability to wean herself more fully off fossil fuels.
"No, no, this can't be true," Myhre characterizes some as feeling when 
exposed to scientific evidence on the risks of warming. "I don't want to 
engage this problem," others lament, feeling overwhelmed by the 
magnitude of the concerns. Myhre says she often feels "anger that we're 
all kind of backed into this problem," and some end up as a result 
showing almost a "disregard" for sustaining the planet.
"Some of the most difficult emotions we have as humans," Myhre finds 
among audiences he has addressed over the years. There's a sense of 
personal blame too, Kiehl adds: "It's my fault."
"There's nothing wrong with how you're feeling" on absorbing the 
"traumatic information" about a warming climate, Kiehl says. "A lot of 
it is unconscious, it's normal."

    [important video on emotional resilience ]
    *Textbook Trauma: The Emotions of Climate Change
    <https://youtu.be/MYFlRxJ5Sh0>*
    YaleClimateConnections
    Published on Sep 17, 2018
    Scientists Sara Myhre and Jeffrey Kiehl discuss the emotional
    impacts of climate change.
    *VIDEO <https://youtu.be/MYFlRxJ5Sh0>* https://youtu.be/MYFlRxJ5Sh0

"I bring it back to 'solutions,'" in the face of such emotional 
outpourings, Kiehl says. He emphasizes that along with the "big choices" 
to be made to avoid the most dire impacts, it's important that people 
recognize a range of promising "solutions" that can help them "build 
emotional resiliency" and also help avoid or delay the most serious 
adverse impacts...
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/09/scientists-on-emotional-responses-to-climate-risks/


[Somebody tell it to Delaware]
*Public-benefit corporation 
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-benefit_corporation>*
Public-benefit corporations... allow for public benefit to be a charter 
purpose in addition to the traditional corporate goal of maximizing 
profit for shareholders. Depending on the country they may also be known 
as crown corporations, statutory corporations, or government owned 
corporations having monopoly over a specific service or market.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-benefit_corporation
- - - - -
[Lemonade is an insurance company]
*Why Lemonade Won't Invest In Coal 
<https://www.lemonade.com/blog/divest_coal/>*
Insurance companies shouldn't fund the very harms they're meant to 
protect against
You wouldn't think your insurance company would invest your premiums in 
businesses that increase the catastrophes you're paying them to protect 
you against.

Think again.

A recent study published in the scientific journal Climatic Change 
showed that emissions from products and processes of 90 fossil fuel 
companies - the very companies insurers invest in - caused about 50% of 
the rise in global temperatures. That warming powered wildfires, 
hurricanes, and other climate-related catastrophes - the very things 
insurers (like us) insure against.

Last year saw a new record for devastation by hurricanes and wildfires - 
and there's no reason to think 2017 will hold the record for long: 17 of 
the 18 hottest years ever were since 2001

And it's not just property that's being destroyed. Those greenhouse 
gasses poison our air too, bringing premature death to millions, and 
visiting pain and suffering on millions more (The Lancet). In as much as 
such tragedies can be paid for with money, it is often health and life 
insurance companies that do the paying.

You'd have thought that self interest, if not the greater good, would 
dissuade insurers from backing the worst offenders. That's been true of 
some of our European counterparts, yet in the US insurance companies are 
"the country's second largest institutional investor in oil, gas and 
coal with $459 billion in fossil fuel investments." (The Guardian).
https://www.lemonade.com/blog/divest_coal/

The online insurance company Lemonade made a public pledge to not invest 
in fossil fuels and called on its competitors to do the same. And, while 
its a relatively small player, Lemonade also called out the rest of the 
insurance industry for their continued underwriting of fossil fuel 
projects with this gem: "for those in our industry who underwrite 
polluting projects -- like coal power plants or tar sands mining -- we 
have a simple ask: please don't.". Over the coming weeks and months 
you'll be hearing a lot more about the newly launched Insure Our Future 
campaign, but in the meantime, if you feel so moved, please retweet the 
blog announcing this move by Lemonade's CEO Dan Schreiber:
https://twitter.com/daschreiber/status/1039568632555216901
- - - - -
[seems worthy of our attention] (not a paid advertisement)
*Forget Everything You Know About Insurance <https://www.lemonade.com/>*
Instant everything. Killer prices. Big heart.
https://www.lemonade.com/


[Anatomy of a political confrontation]
*#VA Climate Forum: Science-Denier Stewart Showed Up and 
Lied…Unchallenged and Uncorrected 
<http://bluevirginia.us/2018/09/va-climate-forum-science-denier-stewart-showed-up-and-lied-unchallenged-and-uncorrected>*
By A Siegel -  September 19, 2018
Last evening's Virginia Climate Crisis Forum (full event video), with 
several hundred attendees, featured Senate candidates Senator Tim Kaine 
(D) and his climate-science-denying opponent, Corey Stewart (R).  The 
several hundred (perhaps 400) attendees heard Kaine give a reasoned set 
of comments about climate science and policy issues. They also, 
unfortunately, suffered through deceitful commentary from fossil-foolish 
Stewart, who basked in the glory of his willingness to show up to speak 
to a hostile audience.

Stewart's time on stage was filled with deception and deceit. One 
specific item demonstrates clearly how Corey uses very standard science 
denial tactics - take a fact and twist it to create an #AlternativeFacts 
distortion of reality - to arrive at a false conclusion and to deceive.

Upfront, since it is important to package deceit in a "truth sandwich," 
the question of flooding and Sea-Level Rise (SLR) in the Hampton Roads 
region is both straightforward and complex.

    "A new NASA-led study shows Hampton Roads has one of the highest
    rates of relative sea level rise--the combined effects of sinking
    land and rising seas--along the U.S. East Coast, about an inch (23
    millimeters) every five years"

Within "sinking land and rising seas" (and not discussing items like 
greater moisture in atmosphere and a greater share of rain in severe 
precipitation events), the situation is roughly 90-95% human-driven, 
with a relatively small "natural" element.

    Human driven climate change related (roughly 70-80% of total)
    Warming of oceans ==> global sea level rise
    Melting of land glaciers ==> global sea level rise
    Changes to ocean circulation (Gulf Stream) ==> local sea level rise
    Other human action related (perhaps 15-20% of total)
    Extensive drawing of groundwater leading to land subsidence
    NOTE: This is a quite addressable issue that will cost about $1B to
    ameliorate/solve while improving the area's long-term water supply
    and reducing pollution loads in the Chesapeake Bay.
    Natural (perhaps 5-10% of total)
    Over thousands of years, there are land shifts going on due to
    melting of glaciers from the last ice age. (This is "GIA".)

In short, there is a double whammy of rising seas and subsiding land 
that is at play in the Hampton Roads area. And, as with so many complex 
issues, a complex interplay of "man" and "nature", an interplay of 
human-driven climate change and other causes/elements. Not simple, not 
single issue, but understandable, explainable, and even addressable.

With that quick summary of the reality in the situation in mind, how did 
Stewart deceive? Here's what he spewed out last night:

    "…with regard to sea-level rise, the reality is is that between 1950
    and 1970, Virginia began a rapid increase, due to improvements in
    pump technologies, a rapid reduction,  a rapid withdrawal in the
    amount of groundwater that was being taken out of the Virginia
    coastal aquifer. And as a result of that as the water went down and
    the ground began to compress, yes it is sinking compared to the
    level of the sea but it's not so much the level of the sea increase
    as much as it is a matter of the actual ground subsiding. and so
    this this this is a scientific fact."

*- - - [denier warning] View the video <https://youtu.be/pD_jdRwaiD0>* 
https://youtu.be/pD_jdRwaiD0
No, Corey, it is NOT "a scientific fact" that the challenges with 
sea-level rise are solely or even mainly due to ground water withdrawals.
Stewart -- as science deniers are wont to do -- twisted facts (that 
groundwater withdrawals contribute to land subsidence) into a seemingly 
plausible alternative explanation that is simply not truthful (this is 
not the primary driver nor is it "a scientific fact").

Without question, Stewart was not truthful and stated outright 
falsehoods in this discussion of sea-level rise. This is just a taste of 
the deceitful and dishonest commentary he gave last night.

Debating and discussing with those who deceive and are willing to 
distort reality, in front of audiences, is almost always a losing 
battle. Truth-tellers are at a significant disadvantage 
<http://getenergysmartnow.com/2010/07/30/the-darker-side-of-lexus-darker-side-of-green/>. 
One of the tools for dealing with that deceit is to challenge it, to 
call it out, immediately. This can be tough, as who can be expert in 
every facet of an issue and be able to speak with authority as to 
specific (potentially quite obscure) facts at a moment's notice?

Stewart's deceptive comments on SLR are a great example. I am familiar 
with SLR and the region, having sat through more than a few briefings 
and knowing some top experts. I am not an expert but far from ignorant 
on the issue. Thus, I knew (KNEW) that what Stewart said was false but 
it required web searching to get to the details provided above.  Chasing 
lies with truth is hard …

Many in the audience started to voice their disgust for Stewart's deceit 
(lies) at "this is a scientific fact."  Stewart chimed in with "I 
accepted your invitation and showed up; the least you can do is show me 
some respect for showing up." The moderator stepped in with a call for 
civility call and then allowed Stewart's deceitful and (often 
flagrantly) false comments to go unchallenged and uncorrected.  Even 
though this was a science-aligned audience,allowing deceit to go 
unchallenged is dangerous and wrong 
<http://bluevirginia.us/2018/09/climate-science-deniers-like-corey-stewart-should-not-be-given-a-forum-to-spew-their-noxious-view-if-so-then-go-after-them-hard>.

    "…evidence, cognitive science, etc. indicates that allowing someone
    to repeatedly spew out lies and misinformation simply helps
    perpetuate those lies and misinformation. That's just the way the
    human brain works, which is why you just shouldn't do it."

And, as to "civility" owed to those who engage in deceit and lies about 
climate change, the question I wanted to (but wasn't called on to) ask 
last night was:

    "How far should civility go is a reasonable question in public
    debate. Should we be civil to the person who has a documented record
    of criminal activities and lying? The person who says Sandy Hook
    parents are liars? The person who looks us in the eye and lies and
    deceives about issues of life and death?
    When it comes to the Norfolk area, the science is clear: sea level
    is rising due to warming oceans and melting glaciers. And, the Gulf
    Stream is changing due to human-driven climate change. And, less
    significantly, there is land subsidence. There is land subsidence
    going on for 1000s of years since the last ice age. And, land
    subsidence due to groundwater withdrawals. The drawing of water from
    aquifers is not the sole nor close to the leading driver of
    increased flooding in Norfolk's streets. These are scientific facts.
    I ask you, what civility is owed to someone who looks us in the eye
    and lies about issues of life and death?"

In any event,

    - Climate change should be part of every political campaign, in fact
    should be top-tier in our political discussion. Kudos to FACS for
    setting this up and thanks to the 400 people who took time out of
    their busy schedules to attend.
    - While science deniers and purveyors of falsehoods should not be
    given a seat at the table, if they ARE given that seat, they should
    be held to a standard of behavior. Organizers and moderators owe
    honest engagement a serious effort to expose deceit and lies. They
    should hold speakers accountable for deceitful engagement. Simply
    assuming your audience is bright enough not to be swayed or
    influenced by deceit is not sufficient.
    - As I sat there, with my teenage daughter getting far angrier than
    I and getting ready to scream outrage, a simple question came to
    mind: where were the real activists? For example, why weren't there
    50 people standing, silently, with their backs turned to
    climate-denier Stewart as he spouted falsehoods to make clear (with
    'civility') their disgust for his climate science denial?

http://bluevirginia.us/2018/09/va-climate-forum-science-denier-stewart-showed-up-and-lied-unchallenged-and-uncorrected


*This Day in Climate History - September 20, 2013 
<http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/9/13/epa-to-announce-carbonlimitsonnewpowerplants.html> 
- from D.R. Tucker*
September 20, 2013: The Obama administration proposes new EPA 
regulations intended to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from new power 
plants in the US.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/9/13/epa-to-announce-carbonlimitsonnewpowerplants.html

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